Imperial College London
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Dr Daniel Hörcher

Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Research Associate
 
 
 
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Contact

 

d.horcher

 
 
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Location

 

Skempton BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Singh:2021:10.1016/j.trc.2021.103267,
author = {Singh, R and Graham, D and Horcher, D and Anderson, R},
doi = {10.1016/j.trc.2021.103267},
journal = {Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies},
title = {The boundary between random and non-random passenger arrivals: robust empirical evidence and economic implications},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2021.103267},
volume = {130},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - In this paper, we investigate the influence of train headways on passenger platform wait times  using  automated  data  from  the  London  Underground  metro  system.   For  high  frequency services, the literature suggests that passenger arrivals are random and that under perfectly random conditions with all other factors held constant, wait times are equivalent to half of the headway between trains.  We test this hypothesis using large-scale smart card and vehicle location data, which enables the extraction of access times from total passenger journey  times  as  well  as  the  precise  measurement  of  train  headways.   Using  a  semi para-metric regression modelling framework, we generate non-linear estimates of the relationship between access times and headway while conditioning for other service supply and demand   factors.  Marginal platform wait times are then derived numerically via an exposure-response model framework which accounts for potential confounding between the walking and waiting components of access times, thus enabling quantification of the unbiased impact of headways on wait times.  For three lines in central London, we observe that marginal wait times transition from greater than half of the headway to approximately one third of the headway astrain frequencies decrease.  The transition occurs in the range between 2-3 minute headways, lower than earlier estimates in the literature.  A series of numerical simulations illustrate the importance of waiting time sensitivity in the optimisation of public transport services.  In comparison with the standard wait time assumption, our exercise reveals that the degree of density economies is milder than what the literature suggests, and this may neutralise some of the economic justifications of high public transport subsidies
AU  - Singh,R
AU  - Graham,D
AU  - Horcher,D
AU  - Anderson,R
DO  - 10.1016/j.trc.2021.103267
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0968-090X
TI  - The boundary between random and non-random passenger arrivals: robust empirical evidence and economic implications
T2  - Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2021.103267
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/90374
VL  - 130
ER  -
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