Imperial College London

Professor Dan Graham

Faculty of EngineeringDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Professor of Statistical Modelling



+44 (0)20 7594 6088d.j.graham Website




Ms Maya Mistry +44 (0)20 7594 6100




611Skempton BuildingSouth Kensington Campus





Dan Graham is Professor of Statistical Modelling in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (DCE) at Imperial College London (ICL) and Head of the ICL Centre for Transport Engineering & Modelling. He is also Director of the ICL Transport Strategy Centre (TSC) and he leads the Transportation Data Science theme within DCE. 

Dan holds doctoral degrees from the Department of Mathematics at Imperial and from the London School of Economics. He is a Project Partner of the Data Centric Engineering Program at the Alan Turing Institute, a Fellow of both the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications (FIMA) and of the Royal Statistical Society (FRSS), and a visiting Professor at South East University in Nanjing. 

Dan's research group works on mathematical and statistical models with applications in transportation. Key research themes include: statistical modelling for performance analytics; causal inference methods and applications; data centric engineering; mathematical modelling in economics, operations and planning; wider economic impacts; and resilience, risk and safety analyses. Dan has published extensively in these fields and he holds citation records for a number of his papers.

In addition to his academic roles, Dan provides public policy advice internationally and has served as Specialist Advisor to the UK Parliamentary Select Committee on Transport.

Selected Publications

Journal Articles

Luo Y, Graham DJ, McCoy EJ, 2023, Semiparametric Bayesian doubly robust causal estimation, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, Vol:225, ISSN:0378-3758, Pages:171-187

Gong Z, Zhang F, Liu W, et al., 2023, On the effects of airport capacity expansion under responsive airlines and elastic passenger demand, Transportation Research Part B - Methodological, Vol:170, ISSN:0191-2615, Pages:48-76

Singh R, Horcher D, Graham DJ, 2023, An evaluation framework for operational interventions on urban mass public transport during a pandemic, Scientific Reports, Vol:13, ISSN:2045-2322

Anupriya, Bansal P, Graham DJ, 2022, Modelling the propagation of infectious disease via transportation networks, Scientific Reports, Vol:12, ISSN:2045-2322

Zhang N, Graham DJ, Bansal P, et al., 2022, Detecting metro service disruptions via large-scale vehicle location data, Transportation Research Part C - Emerging Technologies, Vol:144, ISSN:0968-090X, Pages:1-19

Graham DJ, Singh R, 2022, Model-based adjustment for conditional benchmarking, IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, Vol:33, ISSN:1471-678X, Pages:381-393

Singh R, Sood R, Graham D, 2022, Road traffic casualties in Great Britain at daylight savings time transitions: a causal regression discontinuity design analysis, Bmj Open, Vol:12, ISSN:2044-6055

Horcher D, Singh R, Graham D, 2022, Social distancing in public transport: mobilising new technologies for demand management under the Covid-19 crisis, Transportation, Vol:49, ISSN:0049-4488, Pages:735-764

Bansal P, Horcher D, Graham D, 2022, A dynamic choice model to estimate the user cost of crowding with large scale transit data, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A - Statistics in Society, Vol:185, ISSN:0964-1998

Zhang N, Graham DJ, Hörcher D, et al., 2021, A causal inference approach to measure the vulnerability of urban metro systems, Transportation, Vol:48, ISSN:0049-4488, Pages:3269-3300

Bhuyan P, McCoy EJ, Li H, et al., 2021, Analysing the causal effect of London cycle superhighways on traffic congestion, Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol:15, ISSN:1932-6157, Pages:1999-2022

Ma L, Graham D, Stettler M, 2021, Has the Ultra Low Emission Zone in London improved air quality?, Environmental Research Letters, Vol:16, ISSN:1748-9326, Pages:1-16

Singh R, Graham D, Horcher D, et al., 2021, The boundary between random and non-random passenger arrivals: robust empirical evidence and economic implications, Transportation Research Part C - Emerging Technologies, Vol:130, ISSN:0968-090X

Bansal P, Krueger R, Graham DJ, 2021, Fast Bayesian estimation of spatial count data models, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Vol:157, ISSN:0167-9473, Pages:1-19

Ma L, Graham DJ, Stettler MEJ, 2021, Air quality impacts of new public transport provision: A causal analysis of the Jubilee Line Extension in London, Atmospheric Environment, Vol:245, ISSN:1352-2310, Pages:118025-118025

Singh R, Graham DJ, Anderson RJ, 2020, Quantifying the effects of passenger-level heterogeneity on transit journey times, Data-centric Engineering, Vol:1, ISSN:2632-6736, Pages:e15-1-e15-28

Anupriya, Graham DJ, Bansal P, et al., 2020, Congestion in near capacity metro operations: optimum boardings and alightings at bottleneck stations

Ouali LAB, Graham DJ, Barron A, et al., 2020, Gender Differences in the Perception of Safety in Public Transport, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A - Statistics in Society, Vol:183, ISSN:0964-1998, Pages:737-769

Graham D, Niak C, McCoy EJ, et al., 2019, Do speed cameras reduce road traffic collisions?, PLOS One, Vol:14, ISSN:1932-6203

Graham D, Gibbons S, 2019, Quantifying wider economic impacts of agglomeration for transport appraisal: existing evidence and future directions, Economics of Transportation, Vol:19, ISSN:2212-0122

Carbo Martinez J, Graham D, Anupriya A, et al., 2018, Evaluating the causal economic impacts of transport investments: evidence from the Madrid-Barcelona high speed rail corridor, Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol:46, ISSN:0266-4763, Pages:1714-1723

Horcher D, Graham DJ, 2018, Demand imbalances and multi-period public transport supply, Transportation Research Part B - Methodological, Vol:108, ISSN:0191-2615, Pages:106-126

Horcher D, Graham DJ, Anderson RJ, 2017, Crowding cost estimation with large scale smart card and vehicle location data, Transportation Research Part B - Methodological, Vol:95, ISSN:0191-2615, Pages:105-125

Graham DJ, Li H, 2016, Quantifying the causal effects of 20 mph zones on road casualties in London via doubly robust estimation, Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol:93, ISSN:0001-4575, Pages:65-74

Graham DJ, McCoy EJ, Stephens DA, 2016, Approximate Bayesian inference for doubly robust estimation, Bayesian Analysis, Vol:11, ISSN:1931-6690, Pages:47-69

McCoy EJ, Graham DJ, Stephens DA, 2014, Quantifying causal effects of road network capacity expansions on traffic volume and density via a mixed model propensity score estimator, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol:109, ISSN:1537-274X

Li H, Graham DJ, Majumdar A, 2014, Effects of changes in road network characteristics on road casualties: An application of full Bayes models using panel data, Safety Science, Vol:72, ISSN:0925-7535, Pages:283-292

Ramli AR, Graham DJ, 2013, The demand for road transport diesel fuel in the UK: Empirical evidence from static and dynamic cointegration techniques, Transportation Research Part D - Transport and Environment, Vol:26, ISSN:1361-9209, Pages:60-66

Li H, Graham DJ, Majumdar A, 2013, The impacts of speed cameras on road accidents: An application of propensity score matching methods, Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol:60, ISSN:0001-4575, Pages:148-157

Li H, Graham DJ, Majumdar A, 2012, The effects of congestion charging on road traffic casualties: A causal analysis using difference-in-difference estimation, Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol:49, ISSN:0001-4575, Pages:366-377

Graham DJ, McCoy EJ, Stephens DA, 2012, Quantifying the effect of area deprivation on child pedestrian casualties by using longitudinal mixed models to adjust for confounding, interference and spatial independence, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A - Statistics in Society, Vol:176, ISSN:0964-1998

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