Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

Professor Dan Graham

Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Professor of Statistical Modelling
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 6088d.j.graham Website

 
 
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Assistant

 

Ms Maya Mistry +44 (0)20 7594 6100

 
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Location

 

611Skempton BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Bansal:2022:10.1111/rssa.12804,
author = {Bansal, P and Horcher, D and Graham, D},
doi = {10.1111/rssa.12804},
journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society},
title = {A dynamic choice model to estimate the user cost of crowding with large scale transit data},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12804},
volume = {185},
year = {2022}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Efficient mass transit provision should be responsive to the behaviour of passengers. Operators often conduct surveys to elicit passenger perspectives, but these can be expensive to administer and can suffer from hypothetical biases. With the advent of smart card and automated vehicle location data, operators have reliable sources of revealed preference (RP) data that can be utilized to estimate transit riders’ valuation of service attributes. To date, effective use of RP data has been limited due tomodelling complexities. We propose a dynamic choice model (DCM) for population-level longitudinal RP data to address prominent challenges. In the DCM, riders are assumed to follow different decision rules (compensatory and inertia/habit) and temporal switching between decision rules based onexperience-based learning is also formulated. We develop an expectation-maximization algorithm to estimate the DCM and apply our model to estimate passenger valuation of crowding. Using large-scale data of two months with over four million daily trips by an Asian metro, our DCM estimates show an increase of 47% in passenger’s valuation of travel time under extremely crowded conditions. Furthermore, the average passenger follows the compensatory rule on only 25.5% or fewer trips. These results are valuable for supply-side decisions of transit operators.
AU  - Bansal,P
AU  - Horcher,D
AU  - Graham,D
DO  - 10.1111/rssa.12804
PY  - 2022///
SN  - 0964-1998
TI  - A dynamic choice model to estimate the user cost of crowding with large scale transit data
T2  - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12804
UR  - https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rssa.12804
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/93468
VL  - 185
ER  -
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