Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

Professor Dan Graham

Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Professor of Statistical Modelling
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 6088d.j.graham Website

 
 
//

Assistant

 

Ms Maya Mistry +44 (0)20 7594 6100

 
//

Location

 

611Skempton BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Singh:2022:10.1136/bmjopen-2021-054678,
author = {Singh, R and Sood, R and Graham, D},
doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2021-054678},
journal = {BMJ Open},
title = {Road traffic casualties in Great Britain at daylight savings time transitions: a causal regression discontinuity design analysis},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-054678},
volume = {12},
year = {2022}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Objectives: To determine whether daylight savings time (DST) transitions have an effect on road traffic casualties in Great Britain using causal regression discontinuity design analysis. We undertake aggregate and disaggregate spatial and temporal analyses to test the commonly referenced sleep and light hypotheses.Design: The study takes the form of a natural experiment in which the DST transitions are interventions to be evaluated. Two outcomes are tested: (i) the total number of casualties of all severities (ii) the number of fatalities.Data: Data are obtained from the UK Department for Transport STATS19 database. Over a period of 14 years between 2005 and 2018, 311,766 total casualties and 5,429 fatalities occurred 3 weeks either side of the Spring DST transition and 367,291 total casualties and 6,650 fatalities occurred 3 weeks either side of the Autumn DST transition. Primary outcome measure: A regression discontinuity design method (RDD) is applied. The presence of a causal effect is determined via the degree of statistical significance and magnitude of the average treatment effect.Results: All significant average treatment effects are negative (54 significant models out of 287 estimated), indicating that there are fewer casualties following the transitions. Overall, bootstrapped summary statistics indicate a reduction of 0.75 in the number of fatalities (95% CI: -1.61, -0.04) and a reduction of 4.73 in the number of total casualties (95% CI: -6.08, -3.27) on average per year at both the Spring and Autumn DST transitions combined.Conclusions: The results indicate minor reductions in the number of fatalities following the DST transitions, and thus our analysis does not support the most recent UK parliamentary estimate that there would be 30 fewer fatalities in Great Britain if DST were to be abolished. Furthermore, the results do not provide conclusive support for either the sleep or light hypotheses.
AU  - Singh,R
AU  - Sood,R
AU  - Graham,D
DO  - 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-054678
PY  - 2022///
SN  - 2044-6055
TI  - Road traffic casualties in Great Britain at daylight savings time transitions: a causal regression discontinuity design analysis
T2  - BMJ Open
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-054678
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/96135
VL  - 12
ER  -
Download