Imperial College London
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Dr Daniel Laydon

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Research Associate
 
 
 
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Contact

 

d.laydon

 
 
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Location

 

Wright Fleming WingSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Laydon:2021:10.1101/2021.02.23.21252277,
author = {Laydon, DJ and Mishra, S and Hinsley, WR and Samartsidis, P and Flaxman, S and Gandy, A and Ferguson, NM and Bhatt, S},
doi = {10.1101/2021.02.23.21252277},
title = {Impact of the Tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252277},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Objective</jats:title><jats:p>Measure the effects of the Tier system on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns, before the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Design</jats:title><jats:p>Modelling study combining estimates of the real-time reproduction number <jats:italic>R</jats:italic><jats:sub><jats:italic>t</jats:italic></jats:sub> (derived from UK case, death and serological survey data) with publicly available data on regional non-pharmaceutical interventions. We fit a Bayesian hierarchical model with latent factors using these quantities, to account for broader national trends in addition to subnational effects from Tiers.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Setting</jats:title><jats:p>The UK at Lower Tier Local Authority (LTLA) level.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Primary and secondary outcome measures</jats:title><jats:p>Reduction in real-time reproduction number <jats:italic>R</jats:italic><jats:sub><jats:italic>t</jats:italic></jats:sub>.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>Nationally, transmission increased between July and late September, regional differences notwithstanding. Immediately prior to the introduction of the tier system, <jats:italic>R</jats:italic><jats:sub><jats:italic>t</jats:italic></jats:sub> averaged 1.3 (0.9 – 1.6) across LTLAs, but declined to an average of 1.1 (0.86 – 1.42) two weeks later. Decline in transmission was not solely attributable to Tiers. Tier 1 had negligible effects. Tiers 2 and 3 respectively reduced transmission by 6% (5%-7%) and 2
AU  - Laydon,DJ
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Hinsley,WR
AU  - Samartsidis,P
AU  - Flaxman,S
AU  - Gandy,A
AU  - Ferguson,NM
AU  - Bhatt,S
DO  - 10.1101/2021.02.23.21252277
PY  - 2021///
TI  - Impact of the Tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252277
ER  -
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