David Miles is Professor of Financial Economics at Imperial College Business School.
My current research focuses on policy issues connected with financial stability, the housing market and the setting of monetary policy. Some ideas on the evolution of unfairness in the distribution of resources are explored in recent work.
I am a member of the Commission of the Irish Central Bank. Between May 2009 and September 2015 I was a member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England.
You can find a cv here.
Here are some recent policy orientated papers:
Economic Policy Paper on house prices
A paper on house prices and interest rates over the past 40 years presented at the October 2020 Economic Policy meeting (and forthcoming in the journal Economic Policy) is available here.
The State of the Universities Pension Scheme:
This paper analyses the risk inherent in the Universities pensions scheme (the USS). It is joint work with James Sefton and can be accessed here
A Financial Times article outlines the main conclusions of the analysis. You can see that article here
A paper outlining a way forward out of the current impasse with the USS is avialable here.
COVID-19 policy papers:
A March 2021 paper assesses the UK government's strategy on easing of restrictions as the vaccinations are rolled out across England. You can see it here:
An August 2020 paper assesses the cost and benefits of the UK lockdown. This is joint work with health researchers Mike Stedman, of RES Consortium, and Adrian Heald of Manchester University. You can access it here:
A presentation outlining some of the ideas is here (from about 20 minutes in).
My October 2020 Evidence to the Treasury Committee at the UK Parliament on the policy towards COVID is available here.
Latest comments and columns:
A podcast with Paul Jonson of the IFS discusses the economic fallout from COVID and the implications for fiscal and monetary policy. You can listen to it here.
An extended discussion of what COVID and Brexit mean for the UK is available here
A VOX column looks at costs and benefits of the lockdown to counter the COIVID-19 virus. The UK lockdown: balancing costs against benefits
Another recent VOX comment and Times op ed considers the use of extraordinary monetary policy in the COVID 19 crisis. You can access it here: QE is not helicopter money but it is very useful
A column on the possible inflation implications of the virus is here: Will inflation follow the virus?
Latest academic research:
1. A paper on the way in which economic injustice evolves over time is: The half life of economic injustice. This paper is forthcoming in the journal Economics and Philosophy. A VOXEU blog on this paper is available here. A recorded discussion of the paper from VOXEU is here.
2. A recent paper assesses how far the COVID19 virus might have spread - and the inherent uncertainty about such estimates. The paper "Assessing the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus In The Absence of Mass Testing ", appeared in the CEPR COVID Economics online journal. A link to the CEPR volume is here. It is joint work with Oscar Dimdore-Miles of Oxford University. A related paper is to appear in the International Journal of Clinical Practice and is here.
3. A recent paper undertaken with economists at the Bank of England analyses why UK house prices have risen so much over the past 50 years and whether current values are sustainable. UK House prices and three decades of declines in real interest rates.
4. A May 2017 public lecture on the future of housing markets gives a non technical summary of work on the evolution of housing conditions over long horizons. The lecture, "What Will a House Cost in 100 years?" is available at
A more technical paper on the future of housing is "House prices and growth with fixed land supply" . This is a joint paper with James Sefton and is forthcoming in The Economic Journal.
Monetary Policy and Financial regulation:
I am involved with the co-ordination between monetary policy and financial stability. One strand of research which reflects this is on the use of macro-prudential policy tools and, specifically, the setting of bank capital requirements. My March 2013 paper (“Optimal Bank capital”, Economic Journal) explores the appropriate way to set bank capital requirements.
In 2019 I was asked by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to assess their proposals for substantial increases in the required amount of equity funding for banks. My report can be found here; the RBNZ summary of this assessment is here.
A short video on financial stability and bank capital
A short video on issues with the design of mortgage contracts is available at:
Papers in progress:
Miles D and Monro, V "UK House Prices and Three Decades of Decline in the Risk Free Real Interest Rate”, Bank of England Working paper no 837, December 2019.
Miles, D, Fazio, M and Gimber, A "Limiting Mortgage Debt: Aggregate Demand Externalities and Housing Market Distortions".
Miles, D and Du, Chuan , Capital Requirements, Monetary Policy and the Fundamental Problem of Bank Risk Taking
Du, Chuan and Miles D "Interaction Between Monetary Policy and Regulatory Capital Requirements"
Miles, D and Schanz, J “Should central banks provide reserves via repos or outright bond purchases?"
recent Essays and thought Pieces:
An essay on UK population growth and the standard of living recently appeared in the Times newspaper (30 November 2019). A version of this essay is available here.
Review of "Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World” by Adam Tooze. Published in the Journal of Business, 2019.
The Drift away from capitalism should be a cause for concern, an op ed with Tony Yates from The Times of July 2018.
Brexit, financial markets and the wider economy, in a new volume edited by Franklin Allen (published October 2017).
(If you cannot access this from the Financial Times link above the then use link here which will get you the article).
some recent publications:
Miles D "The half life of economic injustice" forthcoming Economics and Philosophy.
Miles, D and Sefton, J "House prices and growth with fixed land supply" . forthcoming in The Economic Journal.
Miles, D and Dimdore-Miles, O “Assessing the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus in the Absence of Mass Testing", forthcoming The International Journal of Clinical Practice.
Miles D and Dimdore-Miles, O "Measurement Without Testing: Assessing the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus ", COVID Economics, volume 16, May 2020, pp 161-76.
Miles, D; Stedman, M and Heald, A “Stay at Home, Protect the National Health Service, Save Lives”: A cost benefit analysis of the lockdown in the United Kingdom, forthcoming in the International Journal of Clinical Practice.
Dimdore-Miles, O and Miles, D "Assessing the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus in the Absence of Mass Testing", Covid Economics, issue 16, May 2020.
Miles, D; Stedman, M and Heald, A "Living with COVID-19: Balancing Costs Against Benefits in the Face of the Virus", National Institute Economic Review, number 253, August 2020.
Miles, D; Panizza, U; Reiss, R and Ubide, A: The Geneva Report on "Inflation and the Great Recession" , October 2018.
It is available here.
Miles, D “Inflation, Employment and Monetary Policy: Objectives and Outcomes in the UK and US Compared”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Miles, D "Housing, leverage and stability in the wider economy”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Miles, D and Schanz, J “The Relevance or Otherwise of the Central Bank’s Balance sheet”, Journal of International Economics
Joyce, Miles, Scott and Vayanos "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy" The Economic Journal.
TALKS AND SPEECHES ON MONETARY POLICY
March 2017 Evidence to parliamentary Treasury Committee on effectiveness of monetary policy since 2008 is here.
You will find talks, speeches and comments on monetary policy here.
LSE September 2014
Mile End Group, February 2014.
“The Transition to a New normal for Monetary Policy”
Dallas Federal Reserve, November 2013
“Housing, leverage and stability in the wider economy”
Institute for Policy Research Lecture, University of Bath, February 2013
“What should Monetary Policy Do?”
Scottish Economic Society Annual Lecture, Edinburgh, September 2012
“Winding and Unwinding Extraordinary Monetary Policy”
North American Business Economists Lecture, Washington, March 2012
“Government Debt and Unconventional Monetary Policy”
CEPR Public Policy Lecture, London, February 2011
“Monetary Policy in Extraordinary Times”
Miles DK, Heald AH, Stedman M, 2021, How fast should social restrictions be eased in England as COVID-19 vaccinations are rolled out?, International Journal of Clinical Practice, Vol:75, ISSN:1368-5031
Miles D, Sefton J, 2021, House prices and growth with fixed land supply, The Economic Journal, Vol:131, ISSN:0013-0133, Pages:1815-1848
Miles D, 2021, The Half Life of Economic Injustice, Economics and Philosophy, ISSN:0266-2671
Miles D, 2021, How long does economic injustice last?, National Institute Economic Review, Vol:255, ISSN:0027-9501, Pages:69-78
Miles D, 2021, Stay at home, protect the National Health Service, save lives: A cost benefit analysis of the lockdown in the United Kingdom, International Journal of Clinical Practice, Vol:75, ISSN:1368-5031, Pages:1-14