128 results found
Miles D, 2023, Macroeconomic impacts of changes in life expectancy and fertility, Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Vol: 24, ISSN: 2212-828X
This paper analyses economic implications of the different ways in which the population structure of countries becomes older: longer lives and declines in fertility both generate ageing populations but have very different impacts upon the aggregate population. If lower fertility persists populations in many countries will decline. Having reviewed the evidence for this, I consider both why fertility rates have fallen and may stay low. I then analyse the economic implications of populations that may stop growing and start to fall, focusing on how this may play out in the UK. I consider policy implications of such a demographic shift. Despite many predictions of the dire consequences of falling populations the economic impacts are likely, on balance, to be positive.
Miles D, 2022, The half life of economic injustice, Economics and Philosophy, Vol: 38, Pages: 71-107, ISSN: 0266-2671
This paper addresses a question which is fundamental to the perceivedlegitimacy of the distribution of resources today: to what extent doesunfairness in how assets came to be acquired in the past affect incomesand wealth now? To answer that question requires two things: first, aprinciple to determine what is, and what is not, a just acquisition ofwealth or a just source of income; second, a means of using thatprinciple to estimate what fraction of wealth and income is now unjust. Iuse a principle put forward by Robert Nozick to provide the first of thesethings and then use a model of wealth accumulation and economicgrowth to illustrate its implications for the scale of unfairness today. Thegreater is depreciation of assets, the higher are saving rates out of laborincome and the less important is human capital the more transient arethe effects of past economic injustices. I use data on the perceivedunfairness of economic outcomes to see if there is any evidence thatthose features which the model implies should influence the durability ofinjustice help explain cross-country differences in attitudes towardsunfairness
Miles D, Monro V, 2021, UK house prices and three decades of decline in the risk-free real interest rate, Economic Policy, Vol: 36, Pages: 627-684, ISSN: 1468-0327
House prices have risen substantially faster than the prices of consumer goods in most G7 countries over the past few decades. This raises major policy issues: such rises affect the distribution of wealth within and between generations, the mobility of labour and financial stability. This paper explores why such rises have happened, and what the policy implications are. The price rises have been greatest in the United Kingdom, where real house prices have risen more than three and a half times since the 1970s, substantially outpacing real income growth. Meanwhile, rental yields have been trending downwards—particularly since the mid-90s. This paper reconciles these observations by analysing the contribution of a number of drivers of house prices. It shows that the rise in house prices relative to incomes between 1985 and 2018 in the United Kingdom can be more than accounted for by the substantial decline in real risk-free interest rates over the period. This is slightly offset by net increases in home-ownership costs from higher rates of tax. Changes in the risk-free real rate are likely to have been a major driver of changes in house prices. We analyse why they have driven house prices up faster in the United Kingdom than in other advanced economies. Our model predicts that a 1% sustained increase in index-linked gilt yields from current rates could ultimately result in a fall in real house prices of around 20%.
Miles DK, Heald AH, Stedman M, 2021, How fast should social restrictions be eased in England as COVID-19 vaccinations are rolled out?, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLINICAL PRACTICE, Vol: 75, ISSN: 1368-5031
Miles D, Sefton J, 2021, House prices and growth with fixed land supply, The Economic Journal, Vol: 131, Pages: 1815-1848, ISSN: 0013-0133
We analyse housing costs and patterns of residential development over the long term in a dynamic general equilibrium. We show that in a growing economy the speed of travel improvements is crucial to the evolution of land and house prices. We derive a condition for the rate of change in transport efficiency that generates flat land and house prices on a balanced growth path. We present evidence that this condition was satisfied in many countries between the mid-nineteenth century and the mid-twentieth century, but since then passenger transport improvements have slowed down with major implications for how house prices evolve.
Miles D, 2021, How long does economic injustice last?, National Institute Economic Review, Vol: 255, Pages: 69-78, ISSN: 0027-9501
This article assesses whether economic injustices that took place in the past still have significant implications for the material welfare of people many years later. That issue is central to the question of how fair is the distribution of wealth and income today. It is also relevant to issues of reparations for past wrongs. I find that in standard neoclassical models of economic growth the lingering effects of injustice from more than 70 years ago are generally small. But effects can last much longer once we allow for impacts of past injustices to be transmitted through human capital accumulation as well as physical capital.
Miles D, Heald A, Stedman M, 2021, Is the Vaccination program the only factor that should determine how fast the COVID-19 restrictions in England should be eased in 2021?
<jats:p id="p1">Vaccination against the COVID-19 virus began in December 2020 in the UKand is now running at 5% population/week. High Levels of socialrestrictions were implemented for the third time in January 2021 tocontrol the second wave and resulting increases in hospitalisations anddeaths. Easing those restrictions must balance multiple challengingpriorities, weighing the risk of more deaths and hospitalisationsagainst damage done to mental health, incomes and standards of living,education outcomes and provision of non-Covid-19 healthcare. Weekly andmonthly officially published values in 2020/21 were used to estimate theimpact of seasonality and social restrictions on the spread of COVID-19by age group, on the economy and healthcare services. These plusvaccination program assembled into a model that retrospectivelyreflected the actual numbers of reported deaths closely both in 2020 andearly 2021. It was applied prospectively to the next 6 months toevaluate impact of different speeds of easing social restrictions. Theresults show vaccinations are significantly reducing the number ofhospitalisation and deaths. The central estimate is that relative to arapid easing the avoided loss of 57,000 life years from a strategy ofrelatively slow easing over the next 4 months come at a cost in terms ofGDP reduction of around £0.4 million/life-year loss avoided. This isover 10 times higher than the usual limit the NHS uses for spendingagainst Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) saved. Alternativeassumptions for key factors affecting give significantly differenttrade-offs between costs and benefits of different speeds of easing.Disruption of non-Covid-19 Healthcare provision also increases in timesof higher levels of social restrictions. In most cases, the resultsfavour a somewhat faster easing of restrictions in England than currentpolicy implies. Return of non-Covid-19 healthcare activity to ‘normal’levels might also improve future health ou
Miles D, 2021, Stay at home, protect the National Health Service, save lives: A cost benefit analysis of the lockdown in the United Kingdom, International Journal of Clinical Practice, Vol: 75, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 1368-5031
IntroductionThe COVID‐19 pandemic has transformed lives across the world. In the UK, a public health driven policy of population ‘lockdown’ has had enormous personal and economic impact.MethodsWe compare UK response and outcomes with European countries of similar income and healthcare resources. We calibrate estimates of the economic costs as different % loss in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) against possible benefits of avoiding life years lost, for different scenarios where current COVID‐19 mortality and comorbidity rates were used to calculate the loss in life expectancy and adjusted for their levels of poor health and quality of life. We then apply a quality‐adjusted life years (QALY) value of £30,000 (maximum under national guidelines).ResultsThere was a rapid spread of cases and significant variation both in severity and timing of both implementation and subsequent reductions in social restrictions. There was less variation in the trajectory of mortality rates and excess deaths, which have fallen across all countries during May/June 2020.The average age at death and life expectancy loss for non‐COVID‐19 was 79.1 and 11.4 years respectively while COVID‐19 were 80.4 and 10.1 years; including adjustments for life‐shortening comorbidities and quality of life plausibly reduces this to around 5 QALY lost for each COVID‐19 death.The lowest estimate for lockdown costs incurred was 40% higher than highest benefits from avoiding the worst mortality case scenario at full life expectancy tariff and in more realistic estimations they were over 5 times higher.Future scenarios showed in the best case a QALY value of £220k (7xNICE guideline) and in the worst‐case £3.7m (125xNICE guideline) was needed to justify the continuation of lockdown.ConclusionThis suggests that the costs of continuing severe restrictions are so great relative to likely benefits in lives saved that a rapid easing in restrictions is now warranted.
Miles D, Stedman M, Heald A, 2020, Living with COVID-19: Balancing costs against benefits in the face of the virus, National Institute Economic Review, Vol: 253, Pages: R60-R76, ISSN: 0027-9501
This paper analyses the costs and benefits of lockdown policies in the face of COVID-19. What matters for people is the quality and length of lives and one should measure costs and benefits in terms of those things. That raises difficulties in measurement, particularly in valuing potential lives saved. We draw upon guidelines used in the UK for public health decisions, as well as other measures, which allow a comparison between health effects and other economic effects. We look at evidence on the effectiveness of past severe restrictions applied in European countries, focusing on the evidence from the UK. The paper considers policy options for the degree to which restrictions are eased. There is a need to normalise how we view COVID because its costs and risks are comparable to other health problems (such as cancer, heart problems, diabetes) where governments have made resource decisions for decades. The lockdown is a public health policy and we have valued its impact using the tools that guide health care decisions in the UK public health system. The evidence suggests that the costs of continuing severe restrictions in the UK are large relative to likely benefits so that a substantial easing in general restrictions in favour of more targeted measures is warranted.
Miles D, 2020, Assessing the spread of the novel Coronavirus in the absence of mass testing, International Journal of Clinical Practice, Vol: 75, ISSN: 1368-5031
Background: Assessing why the spread of the COVID 19 virus slowed downin many countries in March through to May of 2020 is of great significance.The relative role of restrictions on behaviour (”lockdowns”) and of a naturalslowing for other reasons is difficult to asses when mass testing was not widelydone. This paper assesses the evolution of the spread of the COVID 19 virusover this period when there was not data on test results for a large, randomsample of the population.Method: We estimate a version of the SIR model applied to data on thenumbers who were tested positive in several countries over the period whenthe virus spread very fast and then its spread slowed sharply. Up to theend of April 2020 test data came from non random samples of populationswho were overwhelmingly those who displayed symptoms. Using data froma period when the criteria used for testing (which was that people had clearsymptoms) was relatively consistent is important in drawing out the messagefrom test results. We use this data to assess two things: how large mightbe the group of those infected who were not recorded; how effective werelockdown measures in slowing the spread of the infection.Results: We find that to match data on daily new cases of the virus, theestimated model favours high values for the number of people infected butnot recorded.Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the infection may have spread farenough in many countries by April 2020 to have been a significant factorbehind the fall in measured new cases. Government restrictions on behaviour- lockdowns - were only one factor behind slowing in the spread of the virus.
Burn L, Faull J, Kirilenko A, et al., 2017, The changing geography of finance and regulation in Europe, Publisher: European University Institute, ISBN: 9789290845454
Miles D, 2016, REGULATORY FAILURE AND REGULATORY CHANGE IN THE BANKING SECTOR, NATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEW, Vol: 235, Pages: R15-R26, ISSN: 0027-9501
Miles D, 2016, Milestones in European Housing Finance Foreword, MILESTONES IN EUROPEAN HOUSING FINANCE, Editors: Lunde, Whitehead, Publisher: BLACKWELL SCIENCE PUBL, Pages: XXI-XXII, ISBN: 978-1-118-92945-2
Miles D, 2015, Housing, Leverage, and Stability in the Wider, JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING, Vol: 47, Pages: 19-36, ISSN: 0022-2879
Miles D, 2014, Inflation, Employment, and Monetary Policy: Objectives and Outcomes in the UK and US Compared, JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING, Vol: 46, Pages: 155-167, ISSN: 0022-2879
Miles D, 2014, MONETARY POLICY AND FORWARD GUIDANCE IN THE UK, MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Vol: 82, Pages: 44-59, ISSN: 1463-6786
Woolf DK, Beresford M, Li SP, et al., 2014, Evaluation of FLT-PET-CT as an imaging biomarker of proliferation in primary breast cancer, BRITISH JOURNAL OF CANCER, Vol: 110, Pages: 2847-2854, ISSN: 0007-0920
Miles D, Schanz J, 2014, The relevance or otherwise of the central bank's balance sheet, JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, Vol: 92, Pages: S103-S116, ISSN: 0022-1996
McCarthy D, Miles D, 2013, Optimal Portfolio Allocation for Corporate Pension Funds, European Financial Management, Vol: 19, Pages: 599-629, ISSN: 1354-7798
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:label /><jats:p><jats:italic>We model the asset allocation decision of a stylised corporate defined benefit pension plan in the presence of hedgeable and unhedgeable risks. We assume that plan fiduciaries – who make the asset allocation decision – face non–linear payoffs linked to the plan's funding status because of the presence of pension insurance and a sponsoring employer who may share any shortfall or pension surplus. We find that even simple asymmetries in payoffs have large and highly persistent effects on asset allocation, while unhedgeable risks exert only a small effect. We conclude that institutional details are crucial in understanding DB pension asset allocation</jats:italic>.</jats:p></jats:sec>
McCarthy D, Miles D, 2013, Optimal Portfolio Allocation for Corporate Pension Funds, EUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Vol: 19, Pages: 599-629, ISSN: 1354-7798
Miles D, Yang J, Marcheggiano G, 2013, Optimal Bank Capital, The Economic Journal, Vol: 123, Pages: 1-37, ISSN: 0013-0133
Miles D, Yang J, Marcheggiano G, 2013, Optimal Bank Capital, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS
Miles D, Joyce M, Scott A, et al., 2012, Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction, The Economic Journal, Vol: 122, Pages: F271-F288, ISSN: 0013-0133
Miles D, 2012, Population Density, House Prices and Mortgage Design, SCOTTISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, Vol: 59, Pages: 444-466, ISSN: 0036-9292
Plant JA, Voulvoulis N, Ragnarsdottir KV, 2012, Pollutants, Human Health and the Environment: A Risk Based Approach, Pollutants, Human Health and the Environment: A Risk Based Approach
Pollutants, Human Health andthe Environment is a comprehensive, up-to-date overview of environmental pollutants that are of current concern to human health. Clearly structured throughout, the main body of the book is divided by pollutant type with a chapter devoted to each group of pollutants. Each chapter follows a similar format to facilitate comparison and discussion. For each pollutant, the authors describe the sources, pathways, environmental fate and sinks as well as known toxicological effects. Importantly, the second chapter on heavy metals and other inorganic substances deals with trace element deficiencies which can have serious problems for human health. Some rocks and soils are naturally low in some trace elements and intensive agriculture over the past half century has effectively mined many trace elements reducing their levels in soils and crops. The final chapter is a discussion about the various risk assessment frameworks and regulations covering the main pollutants. Comprehensive, up-to-date coverage of environmental pollutants of concern to human health. Clearly divided into pollutant type with each chapter devoted to a different pollutant group. Clearly structured throughout with the same format for each chapter to help facilitate comparison and discussion and enable readers to prioritise chemicals of concern. Description of the sources, pathways, environmental fate and known toxicological effect. Includes contributions from leading researchers and edited by a team of experts in the field. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Miles D, Scott A, Breedon F, 2012, Macroeconomics: Understanding the Global Economy, Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Incorporated, ISBN: 9781119995715
Revised edition of: Macroeconomics and the global business environment / David Miles, Andrew Scott. 2nd ed.
Cerny A, Miles D, Schmidt L, 2010, The impact of changing demographics and pensions on the demand for housing and financial assets, JOURNAL OF PENSION ECONOMICS & FINANCE, Vol: 9, Pages: 393-420, ISSN: 1474-7472
Miles D, Pillonca V, 2008, Financial innovation and European housing and mortgage markets, OXFORD REVIEW OF ECONOMIC POLICY, Vol: 24, Pages: 145-175, ISSN: 0266-903X
Miles D, Cerny A, 2006, Risk, return and portfolio allocation under alternative pension systems with incomplete and imperfect financial markets, ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Vol: 116, Pages: 529-557, ISSN: 0013-0133
Miles D, 2005, Who will pay? Coping with aging societies, climate change, and other long-term fiscal challenges, JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE, Vol: 43, Pages: 152-154, ISSN: 0022-0515
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