Imperial College London

Dr David Laith Rawaf

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Web Editor for the WHO Collaborating Centre
 
 
 
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d.rawaf Website

 
 
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Reynolds BuildingCharing Cross Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

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102 results found

GBD 2019 Adolescent Transport and Unintentional Injuries Collaborators, 2022, Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019., The Lancet Public Health, Vol: 7, Pages: e657-e669, ISSN: 2468-2667

BACKGROUND: Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10-24 years during the past three decades. METHODS: Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10-14, 15-19, and 20-24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. FINDINGS: In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10-24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport

Journal article

GBD 2019 Colorectal Cancer Collaborators, 2022, Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019., Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol, Vol: 7, Pages: 627-647

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades. METHODS: Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. FINDINGS: Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73&midd

Journal article

Armocida B, Monasta L, Sawyer S, Bustreo F, Segafredo G, Castelpietra G, Ronfani L, Pasovic M, Hay S, Perel P, Beran D, Armocida B, Monasta L, Sawyer SM, Bustreo F, Segafredo G, Castelpietra G, Ronfani L, Pasovic M, Hay SI, Abila DB, Abolhassani H, Accrombessi MMK, Adekanmbi V, Ahmadi K, Al Hamad H, Aldeyab MA, Al-Jumaily A, Ancuceanu R, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Arumugam A, Attia S, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Baker JL, Barone-Adesi F, Barra F, Barteit S, Basu S, Baune BT, Béjot Y, Belo L, Bennett DA, Bikbov B, Bikov A, Blyuss O, Breitner S, Brenner H, Carreras G, Carvalho M, Catapano AL, Chandan JS, Charalampous P, Chen S, Conde J, Cruz-Martins N, Damiani G, Dastiridou A, de la Torre-Luque A, Dianatinasab M, Dias da Silva D, Douiri A, Dragioti E, Engelbert Bain L, Fagbamigbe AF, Fereshtehnejad S-M, Ferrara P, Ferreira de Oliveira JMP, Ferrero S, Ferro Desideri L, Fischer F, Fonseca DA, Gaewkhiew P, Gaihre S, Gallus S, Gaspar Fonseca M, Gill PS, Glasbey JC, Gorini G, Gupta VK, Gurara MK, Haro JM, Hasan MT, Havmoeller RJ, Heibati B, Hellemons ME, Herteliu C, Hussain S, Isola G, Johnson O, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Karch A, Kauppila JH, Kayode GA, Khan MAB, Khatab K, Kivimäki M, Klugar M, Klugarová J, Koly KN, Koyanagi A, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lallukka T, Lamnisos D, Langguth B, Larsson AO, Lauriola P, Lee PH, Leonardi M, Li A, Linehan C, López-Bueno R, Lorkowski S, Loureiro JA, Lunevicius R, Magee LA, Magnani FG, Majeed A, Makris KC, Mathioudakis AG, Mathur MR, McGrath JJ, Menezes RG, Mentis A-FA, Meretoja A, Mestrovic T, Miao Jonasson J, Miazgowski T, Mirica A, Moccia M, Mohammed S, Molokhia M, Mondello S, Mueller UO, Mulita F, Munblit D, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nena E, Noor NM, Nowak C, Ntaios G, Nwatah VE, Oancea B, Oguntade AS, Ortiz A, Otoiu A, Padron-Monedero A, Palladino R, Pana A, Panagiotakos D, Panda-Jonas S, Pardhan S, Patel J, Pedersini P, Peñalvo JL, Pensato U, Pereira RB, Perico N, Petcu I-R, Polinder S, Postma MJ, Rabiee M, Rabieet al., 2022, Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents aged 10–24 years in the EU, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019, The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health, Vol: 6, Pages: 367-383, ISSN: 2352-4642

BackgroundDisability and mortality burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have risen worldwide; however, the NCD burden among adolescents remains poorly described in the EU.MethodsEstimates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Causes of NCDs were analysed at three different levels of the GBD 2019 hierarchy, for which mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were extracted. Estimates, with the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), were retrieved for EU Member States from 1990 to 2019, three age subgroups (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years), and by sex. Spearman's correlation was conducted between DALY rates for NCDs and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) of each EU Member State.FindingsIn 2019, NCDs accounted for 86·4% (95% uncertainty interval 83·5–88·8) of all YLDs and 38·8% (37·4–39·8) of total deaths in adolescents aged 10–24 years. For NCDs in this age group, neoplasms were the leading causes of both mortality (4·01 [95% uncertainty interval 3·62–4·25] per 100 000 population) and YLLs (281·78 [254·25–298·92] per 100 000 population), whereas mental disorders were the leading cause for YLDs (2039·36 [1432·56–2773·47] per 100 000 population) and DALYs (2040·59 [1433·96–2774·62] per 100 000 population) in all EU Member States, and in all studied age groups. In 2019, among adolescents aged 10–24 years, males had a higher mortality rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs than females (11·66 [11·04–12·28] vs 7·89 [7·53–8·23]), whereas females presented a higher DALY rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs (8003·25 [5812·78–10&thi

Journal article

Haagsma JA, Charalampous P, Ariani F, Gallay A, Moesgaard Iburg K, Nena E, Ngwa CH, Rommel A, Zelviene A, Abegaz KH, Al Hamad H, Albano L, Liliana Andrei C, Andrei T, Antonazzo IC, Aremu O, Arumugam A, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Engelbert Bain L, Banach M, Winfried Baernighausen T, Barone-Adesi F, Beghi M, Bennett DA, Bhagavathula AS, Carvalho F, Castelpietra G, Caterina L, Chandan JS, Couto RAS, Cruz-Martins N, Damiani G, Dastiridou A, Demetriades AK, Dias-da-Silva D, Francis Fagbamigbe A, Fereshtehnejad S-M, Fernandes E, Ferrara P, Fischer F, Fra Paleo U, Ghirini S, Glasbey JC, Glavan I-R, Gomes NGM, Grivna M, Harlianto NI, Haro JM, Hasan MT, Hostiuc S, Iavicoli I, Ilic MD, Ilic IM, Jakovljevic M, Jonas JB, Jerzy Jozwiak J, Jurisson M, Kauppila JH, Kayode GA, han MAB, Kisa A, Kisa S, Koyanagi A, Kumar M, Kurmi OP, La-Vecchia C, Lamnisos D, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Linn S, Loureiro JA, Lunevicius R, Madureira-Carvalho A, Mechili EA, Majeed A, Menezes RG, Mentis A-FA, Meretoja A, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski T, Miazgowski B, Mirica A, Molokhia M, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Mulita F, David Naimzada M, Negoi I, Neupane S, Oancea B, Orru H, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Padron-Monedero A, Panda-Jonas S, Pardhan S, Patel J, Pedersini P, Pinheiro M, Rakovac I, Rao CR, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Rodrigues V, Ronfani L, Sagoe D, Sanmarchi F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sathian B, Sheikh A, Shiri R, Shivalli S, Dora Sigfusdottir I, Sigurvinsdottir R, Yurievich Skryabin V, Aleksandrovna Skryabina A, Smarandache C-G, Socea B, Sousa RARC, Steiropoulos P, Tabares-Seisdedos R, Roberto Tovani-Palone M, Tozija F, Van de Velde S, Juhani Vasankari T, Veroux M, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Wang Y, Yadollahpour A, Yaya S, Sergeevich Zastrozhin M, Zastrozhina A, Polinder S, Majdan Met al., 2022, The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study, ARCHIVES OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 80, ISSN: 0778-7367

Journal article

Castelpietra G, Knudsen AKS, Agardh EE, Armocida B, Beghi M, Iburg KM, Logroscino G, Ma R, Starace F, Steel N, Addolorato G, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Banach M, Barnighausen TW, Barone-Adesi F, Bhagavathula AS, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Chandan JS, Chattu VK, Couto RAS, Cruz-Martins N, Dargan P, Deuba K, da Silva DD, Fagbamigbe AF, Fernandes E, Ferrara P, Fischer F, Gaal PA, Gialluisi A, Haagsma JA, Haro JM, Hasan MT, Hasan SS, Hostiuc S, Iacoviello L, Iavicoli I, Jamshidi E, Jonas JB, Joo T, Jozwiak JJ, Katikireddi SV, Kauppila JH, Khan MAB, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kivimaki M, Koly KN, Koyanagi A, Kumar M, Lallukka T, Langguth B, Ledda C, Lee PH, Lega I, Linehan C, Loureiro JA, Madureira-Carvalho AM, Martinez-Raga J, Mathur MR, McGrath JJ, Mechili EA, Mentis A-FA, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Mirica A, Mirijello A, Moazen B, Mohammed S, Mulita F, Nagel G, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nwatah VE, Padron-Monedero A, Panda-Jonas S, Pardhan S, Pasovic M, Patel J, Petcu I-R, Pinheiro M, Pollok RCG, Postma MJ, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Romero-Rodriguez E, Ronfani L, Sagoe D, Sanmarchi F, Schaub MP, Sharew NT, Shiri R, Shokraneh F, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva JP, Silva R, Socea B, Szocska M, Tabares-Seisdedos R, Torrado M, Tovani-Palone MR, Vasankari TJ, Veroux M, Viner RM, Werdecker A, Winkler AS, Hay S, Ferrari AJ, Naghavi M, Allebeck P, Monasta Let al., 2022, The burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm among young people in Europe, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH-EUROPE, Vol: 16, ISSN: 2666-7762

Journal article

Cousin E, Duncan BB, Stein C, Ong KL, Vos T, Abbafati C, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abdelmasseh M, Abdoli A, Abd-Rabu R, Abolhassani H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Accrombessi MMK, Adnani QES, Afzal MS, Agarwal G, Agrawaal KK, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadi S, Ahmadi A, Ahmed A, Ahmed Salih Y, Akande-Sholabi W, Akram T, Al Hamad H, Al-Aly Z, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini S, Ancuceanu R, Andrei T, Andrei CL, Anjana RM, Ansar A, Antonazzo IC, Antony B, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Arizmendi D, Armocida B, Artamonov AA, Arulappan J, Aryan Z, Asgari S, Ashraf T, Astell-Burt T, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Ayanore MA, Badiye AD, Baig AA, Bairwa M, Baker JL, Baltatu OC, Banik PC, Barnett A, Barone MTU, Barone-Adesi F, Barrow A, Bedi N, Belete R, Belgaumi UI, Bell AW, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Beran D, Bhagavathula AS, Bhaskar S, Bhattacharyya K, Bhojaraja VS, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Birara S, Bodolica V, Bonny A, Brenner H, Briko NI, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cámera LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao Y, Cao C, Cerin E, Chakraborty PA, Chandan JS, Chattu VK, Chen S, Choi J-YJ, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury EK, Chu D-T, Corso B, Dadras O, Dai X, Damasceno AAM, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dávila-Cervantes CA, De Neve J-W, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dhamnetiya D, Diaz D, Ebtehaj S, Edinur HA, Eftekharzadeh S, El Sayed I, Elgendy IY, Elhadi M, Elmonem MA, Faisaluddin M, Farooque U, Feng X, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Flood D, Freitas M, Gaal PA, Gad MM, Gaewkhiew P, Getacher L, Ghafourifard M, Ghanei Gheshlagh R, Ghashghaee A, Ghith N, Ghozali G, Gill PS, Ginawi IA, Glushkova EV, Golechha M, Gopalani SV, Guimarães RA, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Gupta VK, Gupta VB, Gupta S, Habtewold TD, Hafezi-Nejad N, Halwani R, Hanif A, Hankey GJ, Haque S, Hasaballah AI, Hasan SS, Hashi A, Hassanipour S, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari M, Hossain MBH, Hossain S, Hosseini M, Hoveidamanesh S, Huang J, Humayun A, Hussain R, Hwang B-F, Ibitoye SE, Ikuta KS, Inbaraj LR, Iqbal U, Islam Met al., 2022, Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, Vol: 10, Pages: 177-192, ISSN: 2213-8587

BackgroundDiabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.MethodsWe used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990–2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.FindingsIn 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (−

Journal article

GBD 2019 Tuberculosis Collaborators, 2022, Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 22, Pages: 222-241, ISSN: 1473-3099

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08-1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7&midd

Journal article

Nichols E, Steinmetz JD, Vollset SE, Fukutaki K, Chalek J, Abd-Allah F, Abdoli A, Abualhasan A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Akram TT, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alanezi FM, Alipour V, Almustanyir S, Amu H, Ansari I, Arabloo J, Ashraf T, Astell-Burt T, Ayano G, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Baig AA, Barnett A, Barrow A, Baune BT, Bejot Y, Bezabhe WMM, Bezabih YM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhaskar S, Bhattacharyya K, Bijani A, Biswas A, Bolla SR, Boloor A, Brayne C, Brenner H, Burkart K, Burns RA, Camera LA, Cao C, Carvalho F, Castro-de-Araujo LFS, Catala-Lopez F, Cerin E, Chavan PP, Cherbuin N, Chu D-T, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, De La Cruz-Gongora V, Dhamnetiya D, da Silva DD, Diaz D, Douiri A, Edvardsson D, Ekholuenetale M, El Sayed I, El-Jaafary S, Eskandari K, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilnejad S, Fares J, Faro A, Farooque U, Feigin VL, Feng X, Fereshtehnejad S-M, Fernandes E, Ferrara P, Filip I, Fillit H, Fischer F, Gaidhane S, Galluzzo L, Ghashghaee A, Ghith N, Gialluisi A, Gilani SA, Glavan I-R, Gnedovskaya E, Golechha M, Gupta R, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haider MR, Hall BJ, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Hankey GJ, Haque S, Hartono RK, Hasaballah A, Hasan MT, Hassan A, Hay S, Hayat K, Hegazy M, Heidari G, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Herteliu C, Househ M, Hussain R, Hwang B-F, Iacoviello L, Iavicoli I, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Irvani SSN, Iso H, Iwagami M, Jabbarinejad R, Jacob L, Jain V, Jayapal SK, Jayawardena R, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Kalani R, Kandel A, Kandel H, Karch A, Kasa AS, Kassie GM, Keshavarz P, Khan MAB, Khatib MN, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kivimaki M, Koroshetz WJ, Koyanagi A, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Lak HM, Leonardi M, Li B, Lim SS, Liu X, Liu Y, Logroscino G, Lorkowski S, Lucchetti G, Saute RL, Magnani FG, Malik AA, Massano J, Mehndiratta MM, Menezes RG, Meretoja A, Mohajer B, Ibrahim NM, Mohammad Y, Mohammed A, Mokdad AH, Mondello S, Moni MA, Moniruzzaman M, Mossie TB, Nagel G, Naveed M, Nayak VC, Kandel SN, Nguyen TH, Oancea B, Otstavnoet al., 2022, Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019, LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 7, Pages: E105-E125, ISSN: 2468-2667

Journal article

Rawaf DL, Street E, Van Flute J, 2022, Use of augmented reality in surgical simulation training during covid-19., BMJ, Vol: 376

Journal article

GBD 2019 Adolescent Young Adult Cancer Collaborators, 2022, The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Oncology, Vol: 23, Pages: 27-52, ISSN: 1213-9432

BACKGROUND: In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. METHODS: Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. FINDINGS: There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the high

Journal article

COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative, 2022, SARS‐CoV‐2 infection and venous thromboembolism after surgery: an international prospective cohort study, Anaesthesia, Vol: 77, Pages: 28-39, ISSN: 0003-2409

SARS-CoV-2 has been associated with an increased rate of venous thromboembolism in critically ill patients. Since surgical patients are already at higher risk of venous thromboembolism than general populations, this study aimed to determine if patients with peri-operative or prior SARS-CoV-2 were at further increased risk of venous thromboembolism. We conducted a planned sub-study and analysis from an international, multicentre, prospective cohort study of elective and emergency patients undergoing surgery during October 2020. Patients from all surgical specialties were included. The primary outcome measure was venous thromboembolism (pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis) within 30 days of surgery. SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis was defined as peri-operative (7 days before to 30 days after surgery); recent (1–6 weeks before surgery); previous (≥7 weeks before surgery); or none. Information on prophylaxis regimens or pre-operative anti-coagulation for baseline comorbidities was not available. Postoperative venous thromboembolism rate was 0.5% (666/123,591) in patients without SARS-CoV-2; 2.2% (50/2317) in patients with peri-operative SARS-CoV-2; 1.6% (15/953) in patients with recent SARS-CoV-2; and 1.0% (11/1148) in patients with previous SARS-CoV-2. After adjustment for confounding factors, patients with peri-operative (adjusted odds ratio 1.5 (95%CI 1.1–2.0)) and recent SARS-CoV-2 (1.9 (95%CI 1.2–3.3)) remained at higher risk of venous thromboembolism, with a borderline finding in previous SARS-CoV-2 (1.7 (95%CI 0.9–3.0)). Overall, venous thromboembolism was independently associated with 30-day mortality (5.4 (95%CI 4.3–6.7)). In patients with SARS-CoV-2, mortality without venous thromboembolism was 7.4% (319/4342) and with venous thromboembolism was 40.8% (31/76). Patients undergoing surgery with peri-operative or recent SARS-CoV-2 appear to be at increased risk of postoperative venous thromboembolism compared with patients with no his

Journal article

Graetz N, Woyczynski L, Wilson KF, Hall JB, Abate KH, Abd-Allah F, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Afshari M, Ajumobi O, Akinyemiju T, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alcalde Rabanal JE, Alijanzadeh M, Alipour V, Altirkawi K, Amiresmaili M, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Antonio CAT, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Aryal KK, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Atique S, Ausloos M, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Azari S, Badawi A, Banoub JAM, Barker-Collo SL, Barnett A, Bedi N, Bennett DA, Bhattacharjee NV, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Britton G, Burstein R, Butt ZA, Cardenas R, Carvalho F, Castaneda-Orjuela CA, Castro F, Cerin E, Chang J-C, Collison ML, Cooper C, Cork MA, Daoud F, Das Gupta R, Weaver ND, De Neve J-W, Deribe K, Desalegn BB, Deshpande A, Desta M, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Dinberu MT, Djalalinia S, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duraes AR, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Earl L, Kalan ME, El-Khatib Z, Eshrati B, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Faro A, Fereshtehnejad S-M, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Fukumoto T, Garcia JA, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Grada A, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta V, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hasan M, Hassen HY, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Hernandez Prado B, Herteliu C, Hole MK, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hu G, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Izadi N, Jakovljevic M, Jha RP, Ji JS, Jonas JB, Shushtari ZJ, Jozwiak JJ, Kanchan T, Kasaeian A, Karyani AK, Keiyoro PN, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khan EA, Khater MM, Kiadaliri AA, Kiirithio DN, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinyoki DK, Kisa A, Kosen S, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Defo BK, Kumar M, Kumar P, Lami FH, Lee PH, Levine AJ, Li S, Liao Y, Lim L-L, Listl S, Lopez JCF, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Mansournia MA, Martins-Melo FR, Masaka A, Massenburg BB, Mayala BK, Mehta KM, Mendoza W, Mensah GA, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirrakhimov EM, Moazen B, Mohammad DK, Darwesh AM, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moodley Y, Moosazadeh M, Moradi G, Moet al., 2021, Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries, NATURE, ISSN: 0028-0836

Journal article

Safiri S, Kolahi A-A, Naghavi M, 2021, Global, regional and national burden of bladder cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019, BMJ Global Health, Vol: 6, Pages: e004128-e004128

<jats:sec><jats:title>Introduction</jats:title><jats:p>The current study determined the level and trends associated with the incidence, death and disability rates for bladder cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019, by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI; a composite measure of sociodemographic factors).</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>Various data sources from different countries, including vital registration and cancer registries were used to generate estimates. Mortality data and incidence data transformed to mortality estimates using the mortality to incidence ratio (MIR) were used in a cause of death ensemble model to estimate mortality. Mortality estimates were divided by the MIR to produce incidence estimates. Prevalence was calculated using incidence and MIR-based survival estimates. Age-specific mortality and standardised life expectancy were used to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). Prevalence was multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs), while disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are the sum of the YLLs and YLDs. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>Globally, there were 524 000 bladder cancer incident cases (95% uncertainty interval 476 000 to 569 000) and 229 000 bladder cancer deaths (211 000 to 243 000) in 2019. Age-standardised death rate decreased by 15.7% (8.6 to 21.0), during the period 1990–2019. Bladder cancer accounted for 4.39 million (4.09 to 4.70) DALYs in 2019, and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased significantly by 18.6% (11.2 to 24.3) during the period 1990–2019. In 2019, Monaco had the highest age-standardised incidence rate (31.9 cases (23.3 to 56.9) per 10

Journal article

Ward JL, Azzopardi PS, Francis KL, Santelli JS, Skirbekk V, Sawyer SM, Kassebaum NJ, Mokdad AH, Hay SI, Abd-Allah F, Abdoli A, Abdollahi M, Abedi A, Abolhassani H, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abushouk AI, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adham D, Advani SM, Afshari K, Agrawal A, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmed AE, Aji B, Akombi-Inyang B, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Alemu BW, Al-Hajj S, Alhassan RK, Ali S, Alicandro G, Alijanzadeh M, Aljunid SM, Almasi-Hashiani A, Almasri NA, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini S, Aminorroaya A, Amit AML, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Ansari F, Ansari I, Antonio CAT, Anvari D, Anwer R, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Ärnlöv J, Asaad M, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Atout MMW, Ausloos M, Avenyo EK, Avila-Burgos L, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Aynalem YA, Azari S, Azene ZN, Bakhshaei MH, Bakkannavar SM, Banach M, Banik PC, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bekuma TT, Bell AW, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bensenor IM, Berhe AK, Berhe K, Berman AE, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Biondi A, Birhanu TTM, Biswas RK, Bohlouli S, Bolla SR, Boloor A, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Bragazzi NL, Braithwaite D, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Britton GB, Burns RA, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cámera LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chandan JS, Chang H-Y, Chang J-C, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi S, Choi J-YJ, Chowdhury MAK, Christopher DJ, Chu D-T, Chung MT, Chung S-C, Cicuttini FM, Constantin TV, Costa VM, Dahlawi SMA, Dai H, Dai X, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darwesh AM, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davletov K, De la Hoz FP, De Let al., 2021, Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 398, Pages: 1593-1618, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundDocumentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.MethodsWe report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).FindingsIn 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or mater

Journal article

Micah AE, Cogswell IE, Cunningham B, Ezoe S, Harle AC, Maddison ER, McCracken D, Nomura S, Simpson KE, Stutzman HN, Tsakalos G, Wallace LE, Zhao Y, Zende RR, Abbafati C, Abdelmasseh M, Abedi A, Abegaz KH, Abhilash ES, Abolhassani H, Abrigo MRM, Adhikari TB, Afzal S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmadi S, Ahmed H, Ahmed MB, Ahmed Rashid T, Ajami M, Aji B, Akalu Y, Akunna CJ, Al Hamad H, Alam K, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alemayehu Y, Alhassan RK, Alinia C, Aljunid SM, Almustanyir SA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amini S, Amini-Rarani M, Amu H, Ancuceanu R, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Angell B, Anjomshoa M, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Aqeel M, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aripov T, Arrigo A, Ashraf T, Atnafu DD, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Awan AT, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Azhar GS, Babalola TK, Bahrami MA, Baig AA, Banach M, Barati N, Bärnighausen TW, Barrow A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Benzian H, Berman AE, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bibi S, Bijani A, Bodolica V, Bragazzi NL, Braithwaite D, Breitborde NJK, Breusov AV, Briko NI, Busse R, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Callander EJ, Cámera LA, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Chen S, Cicero AFG, Dadras O, Dahlawi SMA, Dai X, Dalal K, Dandona L, Dandona R, Davitoiu DV, De Neve J-W, de Sá-Junior AR, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dhamnetiya D, Dharmaratne SD, Doshmangir L, Dube J, Ehsani-Chimeh E, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Eskandarieh S, Farzadfar F, Ferede TY, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Freitas A, Friedman SD, Fukumoto T, Fullman N, Gaal PA, Gad MM, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Garg T, Ghafourifard M, Ghashghaee A, Gholamian A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghozali G, Gilani SA, Glăvan I-R, Glushkova EV, Goharinezhad S, Golechha M, Goli S, Guha A, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haakenstad A, Haider MR, Hailu A, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Harapan H, Hartono RK, Hasaballah AI, Hassan S, Hassanein MH, Hayat K, Hegazy MI, Heidari G, Hendrie D, Heredia-Pi I, Herteliu C, Hezam K, Holla R, Hossain SJ, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Huda Tet al., 2021, Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990–2050, The Lancet, Vol: 398, Pages: 1317-1343, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundThe rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.MethodsWe estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.FindingsIn 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7–8·8) or $1132 (1119–1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geogra

Journal article

Khanzada A, Mousa A, Thompson R, Rawaf D, Ikpeme M, Watt H, Mechili EAet al., 2021, The Association between GDP and non-communicable disease mortality in the WHO European Region, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, ISSN: 1101-1262

Conference paper

Jahagirdar D, Walters MK, Novotney A, Brewer ED, Frank TD, Carter A, Biehl MH, Abbastabar H, Abhilash ES, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Raddad LJ, Adekanmbi V, Adeyinka DA, Adnani QES, Afzal S, Aghababaei S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmadi K, Ahmadi S, Ahmadpour E, Ahmed MB, Ahmed Rashid T, Ahmed Salih Y, Aklilu A, Akram T, Akunna CJ, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alanezi FM, Aleksandrova EA, Alene KA, Ali L, Alipour V, Almustanyir S, Alvis-Guzman N, Ameyaw EK, Amu H, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Anvari D, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Arulappan J, Atnafu DD, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayza MA, Azari S, B DB, Banach M, Bärnighausen TW, Barra F, Barrow A, Basu S, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Belay HG, Berheto TM, Bezabhe WM, Bezabih YM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bibi S, Bijani A, Bisignano C, Bolarinwa OA, Boloor A, Boltaev AA, Briko NI, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Butt ZA, Cao C, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Choudhari SG, Chu D-T, Couto RAS, Cowden RG, Dachew BA, Dadras O, Dagnew AB, Dahlawi SMA, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, Degenhardt L, Demeke FM, Desta AA, Deuba K, Dhamnetiya D, Dhungana GP, Dianatinasab M, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Doan LP, Dorostkar F, Edinur HA, Effiong A, Eftekharzadeh S, El Sayed Zaki M, Elayedath R, Elhadi M, El-Jaafary SI, El-Khatib Z, Elsharkawy A, Endalamaw A, Endries AY, Eskandarieh S, Ezeonwumelu IJ, Ezzikouri S, Farahmand M, Faraon EJA, Fasanmi AO, Ferrero S, Ferro Desideri L, Filip I, Fischer F, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Garg T, Gayesa RT, Gebreyohannes EA, Gesesew HA, Getachew Obsa A, Ghadiri K, Ghashghaee A, Gilani SA, Ginindza TG, Glavan I-R, Glushkova EV, Golechha M, Gugnani HC, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Hamidi S, Handanagic S, Haque S, Harapan H, Hargono A, Hasaballah AI, Hashi A, Hassan S, Hassanipour S, Hayat K, Heredia-Pi I, Hezam K, Holla R, Hoogar P, Hoque ME, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hsairi M, Hussain R, Ibitoye SE, Idrisov B, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilicet al., 2021, Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019, The Lancet HIV, Vol: 8, Pages: e633-e651, ISSN: 2352-3018

BackgroundThe sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic.MethodsTo estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0).FindingsIn 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stabl

Journal article

Feigin VL, Stark BA, Johnson CO, Roth GA, Bisignano C, Abady GG, Abbasifard M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd-Allah F, Abedi V, Abualhasan A, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abushouk AI, Adebayo OM, Agarwal G, Agasthi P, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmadi S, Ahmed Salih Y, Aji B, Akbarpour S, Akinyemi RO, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alif SM, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almustanyir S, Al-Raddadi RM, Al-Shahi Salman R, Alvis-Guzman N, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson JA, Ansar A, Antonazzo IC, Arabloo J, Ärnlöv J, Artanti KD, Aryan Z, Asgari S, Ashraf T, Athar M, Atreya A, Ausloos M, Baig AA, Baltatu OC, Banach M, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barone MTU, Basu S, Bazmandegan G, Beghi E, Beheshti M, Béjot Y, Bell AW, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Bezabhe WM, Bezabih YM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Birhanu MM, Boloor A, Bonny A, Brauer M, Brenner H, Bryazka D, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Campos-Nonato IR, Cantu-Brito C, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catapano AL, Chakraborty PA, Charan J, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury EK, Chu D-T, Chung S-C, Colozza D, Costa VM, Costanzo S, Criqui MH, Dadras O, Dagnew B, Dai X, Dalal K, Damasceno AAM, D'Amico E, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darega Gela J, Davletov K, De la Cruz-Góngora V, Desai R, Dhamnetiya D, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Dichgans M, Dokova K, Doshi R, Douiri A, Duncan BB, Eftekharzadeh S, Ekholuenetale M, El Nahas N, Elgendy IY, Elhadi M, El-Jaafary SI, Endres M, Endries AY, Erku DA, Faraon EJA, Farooque U, Farzadfar F, Feroze AH, Filip I, Fischer F, Flood D, Gad MM, Gaidhane S, Ghanei Gheshlagh R, Ghashghaee A, Ghith N, Ghozali G, Ghozy S, Gialluisi A, Giampaoli S, Gilani SA, Gill PS, Gnedovskaya EV, Golechha M, Goulart AC, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gyanwali P, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Hankey GJ, Hargono A, Hashi A, Hassan TS, Hassen HY, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, Hayat K, Hegazy MI, Herteliu C, Holla R, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Huang J, Humayun A, Hwang B-F, Iacoviello L, Iavicoliet al., 2021, Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Neurology, Vol: 20, Pages: 795-820, ISSN: 1474-4422

BackgroundRegularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.MethodsWe applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.FindingsIn 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0&

Journal article

Paulson KR, Kamath AM, Alam T, Bienhoff K, Abady GG, Abbas J, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abd-Elsalam SM, Abdoli A, Abedi A, Abolhassani H, Abreu LG, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abushouk AI, Adamu AL, Adebayo OM, Adegbosin AE, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adeyinka DA, Adsuar JC, Afshari K, Aghaali M, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmed MB, Aji B, Akalu Y, Akinyemi OO, Aklilu A, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali T, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Alipour V, Alizade H, Aljunid SM, Almasi-Hashiani A, Almasri NA, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Altirkawi KA, Alumran AK, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Ameyaw EK, Amini S, Amini-Rarani M, Amit AML, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrei CL, Ansari F, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio CAT, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anwer R, Aqeel M, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aripov T, Ärnlöv J, Artanti KD, Arzani A, Asaad M, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Athari SS, Athari SM, Atnafu DD, Atreya A, Atteraya MS, Ausloos M, Awan AT, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Azari S, Azarian G, Azene ZN, B DB, Babaee E, Badiye AD, Baig AA, Banach M, Banik PC, Barker-Collo SL, Barqawi HJ, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bedi N, Beghi E, Beghi M, Bell ML, Bendak S, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Berman AE, Bezabih YM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Biondi A, Birihane BM, Biswas RK, Bohlouli S, Bragazzi NL, Breusov AV, Brunoni AR, Burkart K, Burugina Nagaraja S, Busse R, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Camargos P, Cámera LA, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Cerin E, Chang J-C, Chanie WF, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi S, Chen S, Cho DY, Choi J-YJ, Chu D-T, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Conde J, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Dachew BA, Dahlaet al., 2021, Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 398, Pages: 870-905, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundSustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.MethodsWe completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.FindingsGlobal U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3–74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2–41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8–29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3–19·8) in 2019.

Journal article

Wu A-M, Bisignano C, James SL, Abady GG, Abedi A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Alhassan RK, Alipour V, Arabloo J, Asaad M, Asmare WN, Awedew AF, Banach M, Banerjee SK, Bijani A, Birhanu TTM, Bolla SR, Camera LA, Chang J-C, Cho DY, Chung MT, Couto RAS, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Farzadfar F, Filip I, Fischer F, Fomenkov AA, Gill TK, Gupta B, Haagsma JA, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamidi S, Hay S, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Ivers RQ, Jurisson M, Kalhor R, Kanchan T, Kavetskyy T, Khalilov R, Khan EA, Khan M, Kneib CJ, Krishnamoorthy V, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Lalloo R, Lasrado S, Lim SS, Liu Z, Manafi A, Manafi N, Menezes RG, Meretoja TJ, Miazgowski B, Miller TR, Mohammad Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, Naderi M, Naimzada MD, Nayak VC, Nguyen CT, Nikbakhsh R, Olagunju AT, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Padubidri JR, Pereira J, Pham HQ, Pinheiro M, Polinder S, Pourchamani H, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rahman MHU, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Saeb MR, Samy AM, Riera LS, Schwebel DC, Shahabi S, Shaikh MA, Soheili A, Tabares-Seisdedos R, Tovani-Palone MR, Bach XT, Travillian RS, Valdez PR, Vasankari TJ, Velazquez DZ, Venketasubramanian N, Giang TV, Zhang Z-J, Vos Tet al., 2021, Global, regional, and national burden of bone fractures in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, LANCET HEALTHY LONGEVITY, Vol: 2, Pages: E580-E592, ISSN: 2666-7568

Journal article

Ebrahimi H, Aryan Z, Moghaddam SS, Bisignano C, Rezaei S, Pishgar F, Force LM, Abolhassani H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Advani SM, Ahmad S, Alahdab F, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Amini S, Ancuceanu R, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Asaad M, Ausloos M, Awedew AF, Baig AA, Bijani A, Biondi A, Bjorge T, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, Brenner H, Bustamante-Teixeira MT, Butt ZA, Carreras G, Castaneda-Orjuela CA, Chimed-Ochir O, Chu D-T, Chung MT, Cohen AJ, Compton K, Dagnew B, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dean FE, Molla MD, Desta AA, Driscoll TR, Faraon EJA, Faris PS, Filip I, Fischer F, Fu W, Gallus S, Gebregiorgis BG, Ghashghaee A, Golechha M, Gonfa KB, Gorini G, Garcia Goulart BN, Ribeiro Guerra M, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hamidi S, Hay SI, Herteliu C, Hoang CL, Horita N, Hostiuc M, Househ M, Iavicoli I, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Irvani SSN, Islami F, Kamath A, Kaur S, Khalilov R, Khan EA, Kocarnik JM, Bicer BK, Kumar GA, La Vecchia C, Lan Q, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Leong E, Li B, Lim SS, Lopez AD, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Manafi N, Menezes RG, Miazgowski T, Misra S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molassiotis A, Monasta L, Moradzadeh R, Morawska L, Morgado-da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Naimzada MD, Nazari J, Cuong TN, Huong LTN, Nikbakhsh R, Nunez-Samudio V, Olagunju AT, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Mahesh PA, Pana A, Park E-K, Pottoo FH, Pourshams A, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahman MA, Ram P, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rezaei N, Roberts NLS, Roberts TJ, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Samy AM, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sathian B, Schneider IJC, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Sha F, Shaikh MA, Sharma R, Sheikh A, Sheikhbahaei S, Malleshappa SKS, Singh JA, Sitas F, Spurlock EE, Steiropoulos P, Tabares-Seisdedos R, Tadesse EG, Takahashi K, Traini E, Bach XT, Tran KB, Travillian RS, Vacante M, Villeneuve PJ, Violante FS, Yousefi Z, Yuce D, Zadnik V, Zamanian M, Zendehdel K, Zhang J, Zhang Z-J, Farzadfar F, Murray CJL, Naghavi Met al., 2021, Global, regional, and national burden of respiratory tract cancers and associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019 a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 9, Pages: 1030-1049, ISSN: 2213-2600

BackgroundPrevention, control, and treatment of respiratory tract cancers are important steps towards achieving target 3.4 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—a one-third reduction in premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 2030. We aimed to provide global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019.MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 methodology, we evaluated the incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of respiratory tract cancers (ie, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer). Deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer attributable to each risk factor were estimated on the basis of risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input from 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Trends were estimated from 1990 to 2019, with an emphasis on the 2010–19 period.FindingsGlobally, there were 2·26 million (95% uncertainty interval 2·07 to 2·45) new cases of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, and 2·04 million (1·88 to 2·19) deaths and 45·9 million (42·3 to 49·3) DALYs due to tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in 2019. There were 209 000 (194 000 to 225 000) new cases of larynx cancer, and 123 000 (115 000 to 133 000) deaths and 3·26 million (3·03 to 3·51) DALYs due to larynx cancer globally in 2019. From 2010 to 2019, the number of new tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer cases increased by 23·3% (12·9 to 33·6) globally and the number of larynx cancer cases increased by 24·7% (16·0 to 34·1) globally. Global age-standardised i

Journal article

Nichols E, Abd-Allah F, Abdoli A, Abualhasan A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Afshin A, Akinyemi RO, Alanezi FM, Alipour V, Almasi-Hashiani A, Arabloo J, Ashraf-Ganjouei A, Ayano G, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Baig AA, Banach M, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Baune BT, Bhagavathula AS, Bhattacharyya K, Bijani A, Biswas A, Boloor A, Brayne C, Brenner H, Burkart K, Nagaraja SB, Carvalho F, Castro-de-Araujo LFS, Catala-Lopez F, Cerin E, Cherbuin N, Chu D-T, Dai X, De Sa-Junior AR, Djalalinia S, Douiri A, Edvardsson D, El-Jaafary S, Eskandarieh S, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad S-M, Fernandes E, Ferrara P, Filip I, Fischer F, Gaidhane S, Galluzzo L, Gebremeskel GG, Ghashghaee A, Gialluisi A, Gnedovskaya E, Golechha M, Gupta R, Hachinski V, Haider MR, Haile TG, Hamiduzzaman M, Hankey GJ, Hay S, Heidari G, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Ho HC, Househ M, Hwang B-F, Iacoviello L, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Irvani SSN, Iwagami M, Iyamu IO, Jha RP, Kalani R, Karch A, Kasa AS, Khader YS, Khan EA, Khatib MN, Kim YJ, Kisa S, Kisa A, Kivimaki M, Koyanagi A, Kumar M, Landires I, Lasrado S, Li B, Lim SS, Liu X, Kunjathur SM, Majeed A, Malik P, Mehndiratta MM, Menezes RG, Mohammad Y, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Moni MA, Nagel G, Naveed M, Nayak VC, Cuong TN, Huong LTN, Nunez-Samudio V, Olagunju AT, Ostroff SM, Otstavnov N, Owolabi MO, Kan FP, Patel UK, Phillips MR, Piradov MA, Pond CD, Pottoo FH, Prada S, Radfar A, Rahim F, Rana J, Rashedi V, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Reinig N, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Romoli M, Roshandel G, Sachdev PS, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Samaei M, Saylan M, Sha F, Shaikh MA, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shiri R, Silva DAS, Singh JA, Singhal D, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Soheili A, Sotoudeh H, Spurlock EE, Szoeke CE, Tabares-Seisdedos R, Taddele BW, Tovani-Palone MR, Tsegaye GW, Vacante M, Venketasubramanian N, Vidale S, Vlassov V, Giang TV, Wang Y-P, Weiss J, Weldemariam AH, Westerman R, Wimo A, Winkler AS, Wu C, Yadollahpour A, Yesiltepe M, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Zastrozhinet al., 2021, Use of multidimensional item response theory methods for dementia prevalence prediction: an example using the Health and Retirement Survey and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study, BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 1472-6947

BackgroundData sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally.MethodsUsing cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001–2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex.ResultsOur algorithm had a cross-validated predictive accuracy of 88% (86–90), and an area under the curve of 0.97 (0.97–0.98) in ADAMS. Prevalence was higher in females than males and increased over age, with a prevalence of 4% (3–4) in individuals 70–79, 11% (9–12) in individuals 80–89 years old, and 28% (22–35) in those 90 and older.ConclusionsOur model had similar or better accuracy as compared to previously reviewed algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence in HRS, while utilizing more flexible methods. These methods could be more easily generalized and utilized to estimate dementia prevalence in other national surveys.

Journal article

Galles NC, Liu PY, Updike RL, Fullman N, Nguyen J, Rolfe S, Sbarra AN, Schipp MF, Marks A, Abady GG, Abbas KM, Abbasi SW, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdoli A, Abolhassani H, Abosetugn AE, Adabi M, Adamu AA, Adetokunboh OO, Adnani QES, Advani SM, Afzal S, Aghamir SMK, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi S, Ahmed H, Ahmed MB, Rashid TA, Salih YA, Akalu Y, Aklilu A, Akunna CJ, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Albano L, Alemayehu Y, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Alhassan RK, Ali L, Aljunid SM, Almustanyir S, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amu H, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Ansar A, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonazzo IC, Antony B, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Artanti KD, Arulappan J, Awan AT, Awoke MA, Ayza MA, Azarian G, Azzam AY, Darshan BB, Babar Z-U-D, Balakrishnan S, Banach M, Bante SA, Barnighausen TW, Barqawi HJ, Barrow A, Bassat Q, Bayarmagnai N, Ramirez DFB, Bekuma TT, Belay HG, Belgaumi UI, Bhagavathula AS, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhattacharyya K, Bibi S, Bijani A, Biondi A, Boloor A, Braithwaite D, Buonsenso D, Butt ZA, Camargos P, Carreras G, Carvalho F, Castaneda-Orjuela CA, Chakinala RC, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Chowdhury FR, Christopher DJ, Chu D-T, Chung S-C, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Dadras O, Dagnew AB, Dagnew B, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, De Neve J-W, Molla MD, Derseh BT, Desai R, Desta AA, Dhamnetiya D, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Dianatinasab M, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Dorostkar F, Edem B, Edinur HA, Eftekharzadeh S, El Sayed I, Zaki MES, Elhadi M, El-Jaafary S, Elsharkawy A, Enany S, Erkhembayar R, Esezobor CI, Eskandarieh S, Ezeonwumelu IJ, Ezzikouri S, Fares J, Faris PS, Feleke BE, Ferede TY, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Ferrara P, Filip I, Fischer F, Francis MR, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Gaidhane S, Gallus S, Garg T, Geberemariyam BS, Gebre T, Gebregiorgis BG, Gebremedhin KB, Gebremichael B, Gessner BD, Ghadiri K, Ghafourifard M, Ghashghaee A, Gilani SA, Glushkova EV, Golechha M, Gonfa KB, Gopalani SV, Goudarzi H, Gubari MIM, Guo Y, Gupta Vet al., 2021, Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1, The Lancet, Vol: 398, Pages: 503-521, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundMeasuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time.MethodsFor this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development.FindingsBy 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4–82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5–42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4–41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3–84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4–44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4–81·1) in 2019

Journal article

Abbott S, Naraen A, Rawaf D, Craik Jet al., 2021, Should we be prepping the foot? Stockinette use and drape contamination during hip arthroplasty: An experimental study, ANZ JOURNAL OF SURGERY, Vol: 91, Pages: 1898-1902, ISSN: 1445-1433

Journal article

Cromwell EA, Osborne JCP, Unnasch TR, Basáñez M-G, Gass KM, Barbre KA, Hill E, Johnson KB, Donkers KM, Shirude S, Schmidt CA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Afarideh M, Ahmadpour E, Ahmed MB, Akalu TY, Al-Aly Z, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alipour V, Andrei CL, Ansari F, Ansha MG, Anvari D, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Arnold BF, Ausloos M, Ayanore MA, Baig AA, Banach M, Barac A, Bärnighausen TW, Bayati M, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bibi S, Bijani A, Bohlouli S, Bohluli M, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Butt ZA, Carvalho F, Chatterjee S, Chattu VK, Chattu SK, Cormier NM, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, Daoud F, Darwesh AM, Daryani A, Deribe K, Dharmaratne SD, Diaz D, Do HT, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Elemineh DA, Faraj A, Fasihi Harandi M, Fatahi Y, Feigin VL, Fernandes E, Foigt NA, Foroutan M, Franklin RC, Gubari MIM, Guido D, Guo Y, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamagharib Abdullah K, Hamidi S, Herteliu C, Hidru HDD, Higazi TB, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Househ M, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic MD, Ilic IM, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Jha RP, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir Z, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Karami Matin B, Karimi SE, Kasaeian A, Kavetskyy T, Kayode GA, Kazemi Karyani A, Kelbore AG, Keramati M, Khalilov R, Khan EA, Khan MNN, Khatab K, Khater MM, Kianipour N, Kibret KT, Kim YJ, Kosen S, Krohn KJ, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lansingh VC, Lee PH, LeGrand KE, Li S, Longbottom J, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maleki A, Mamun AA, Manafi A, Manafi N, Mansournia MA, Martins-Melo FR, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, Meharie BG, Mendoza W, Mengesha EW, Mengistu DT, Mereta ST, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Miri M, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Moradi M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Mosser JF, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naik G, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen TH, Nikbakhsh R, Oancea B, Olagunju TO, Olagunju AT, Omar Bali A, Onwujekwe OE, Pana A, Pourjafar H, Rahim F, Rahman MHU, Rathi P, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Rawassizadeh R, Resnikoff S, Reta MA, Rezapour A, Rubagotti E, Rubino Set al., 2021, Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning., PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol: 15, Pages: 1-23, ISSN: 1935-2727

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initia

Journal article

Kendrick PJ, Reitsma MB, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abdoli A, Abdollahi M, Abedi A, Abhilash ES, Aboyans V, Adebayo OM, Advani SM, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmadi K, Ahmed H, Aji B, Akalu Y, Akunna CJ, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alhabib KF, Ali T, Alif SM, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alomari MA, Amin TT, Amini S, Amu H, Ancuceanu R, Anderson JA, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antony B, Anvari D, Arabloo J, Arian ND, Arora M, Artanti KD, Asmare WN, Atnafu DD, Ausloos M, Awan AT, Ayano G, Aynalem GL, Azari S, B DB, Badiye AD, Baig AA, Banach M, Banerjee SK, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barqawi HJ, Basu S, Bayati M, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bekuma TT, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Benziger CP, Berman AE, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bibi S, Bijani A, Biondi A, Braithwaite D, Brenner H, Brunoni AR, Burkart K, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Car J, Carreras G, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Cattaruzza MSS, Chang J-C, Chaturvedi P, Chen S, Chido-Amajuoyi OG, Chu D-T, Chung S-C, Ciobanu LG, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Dagnew B, Dai X, Damasceno AAM, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darega Gela J, Derbew Molla M, Desta AA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Eagan AW, Ebrahimi Kalan M, Edvardsson K, Effiong A, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Esmaeilnejad S, Fadhil I, Faraon EJA, Farwati M, Farzadfar F, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Feldman R, Filip I, Filippidis F, Fischer F, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Gad MM, Gallus S, Geberemariyam BS, Gebregiorgis BG, Getacher L, Getachew Obsa A, Ghafourifard M, Ghanei Gheshlagh R, Ghashghaee A, Ghith N, Gil GF, Gill PS, Ginawi IA, Goharinezhad S, Golechha M, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Grivna M, Guha A, Guimarães RA, Guo Y, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haider MR, Hamadeh RR, Hankey GJ, Hargono A, Hay SI, Heidari G, Herteliu C, Hezam K, Hird TR, Holla R, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hsiao T, Huang J, Ibeneme CU, Ibitoye SE, Ilet al., 2021, Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Public Health, Vol: 6, Pages: e482-e499, ISSN: 2468-2667

BackgroundChewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.MethodsWe estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.FindingsIn 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15–19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: –1·21% [–1·26 to –1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant

Journal article

Bhattacharjee NV, Schaeffer LE, Hay SI, 2021, Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2018, Nature Human Behaviour, Vol: 5, Pages: 1027-1045, ISSN: 2397-3374

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life—is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030.

Journal article

Johnson SC, Cunningham M, Dippenaar IN, Sharara F, Wool EE, Agesa KM, Han C, Miller-Petrie MK, Wilson S, Fuller JE, Balassyano S, Bertolacci GJ, Davis Weaver N, Lopez AD, Murray CJL, Naghavi Met al., 2021, Public health utility of cause of death data: applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality, BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-20, ISSN: 1472-6947

BackgroundAccurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments.MethodsWe describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings.ResultsThe proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio-Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number

Journal article

Sartorius B, VanderHeide JD, Yang M, Goosmann EA, Hon J, Haeuser E, Cork MA, Perkins S, Jahagirdar D, Schaeffer LE, Serfes AL, LeGrand KE, Abbastabar H, Abebo ZH, Abosetugn AE, Abu-Gharbieh E, Accrombessi MMK, Adebayo OM, Adegbosin AE, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adeyinka DA, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmadi K, Ahmed MB, Akalu Y, Akinyemi OO, Akinyemi RO, Aklilu A, Akunna CJ, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam N, Alamneh AA, Alanzi TM, Alemu BW, Alhassan RK, Ali T, Alipour V, Amini S, Ancuceanu R, Ansari F, Anteneh ZA, Anvari D, Anwer R, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Asemahagn MA, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Asmare WN, Atnafu DD, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Ausloos M, Awedew AF, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Ayza MA, Azari S, Azene ZN, Babar Z-U-D, Baig AA, Balakrishnan S, Banach M, Bärnighausen TW, Basu S, Bayati M, Bedi N, Bekuma TT, Bezabhe WMM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bibi S, Bikbov B, Birhan TA, Bitew ZW, Bockarie MJ, Boloor A, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Briko AN, Briko NI, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Cárdenas R, Carvalho F, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Chowdhury MAK, Chu D-T, Cook AJ, Cormier NM, Cowden RG, Culquichicon C, Dagnew B, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Daoud F, Daryani A, das Neves J, Davis Weaver N, Derbew Molla M, Deribe K, Desta AA, Deuba K, Dharmaratne SD, Dhungana GP, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Doku PN, Dubljanin E, Duko B, Eagan AW, Earl L, Eaton JW, Effiong A, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Elayedath R, El-Jaafary SI, Elsharkawy A, Eskandarieh S, Eyawo O, Ezzikouri S, Fasanmi AO, Fasil A, Fauk NK, Feigin VL, Ferede TY, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Francis JM, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Geberemariyam BS, Gebregiorgis BG, Gebremichael B, Gesesew HA, Getacher L, Ghadiri K, Ghashghaee A, Gilani SA, Ginindza TG, Glagn M, Golechha M, Gona PN, Gubari MIM, Gugnani HC, Guido D, Guled RA, Hall BJ, Hamidi S, Handiso DW, Hargono A, Hashi A, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hayat K, Herteliu C, Hidru HDDet al., 2021, Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study, The Lancet HIV, Vol: 8, Pages: e363-e375, ISSN: 2352-3018

BackgroundHigh-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsIn this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit.FindingsThe estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated ra

Journal article

Haile LM, Kamenov K, Briant PS, Orji AU, Steinmetz JD, Abdoli A, Abdollahi M, Abu-Gharbieh E, Afshin A, Ahmed H, Rashid TA, Akalu Y, Alahdab F, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Al Hamad H, Ali L, Alipour V, Al-Raddadi RM, Amu H, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Arulappan J, Ashbaugh C, Atnafu DD, Babar Z-U-D, Baig AA, Banik PC, Barnighausen TW, Barrow A, Bender RG, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bibi S, Bijani A, Burkart K, Cederroth CR, Charan J, Choudhari SG, Chu D-T, Couto RAS, Dagnew AB, Dagnew B, Dahlawi SMA, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Desalew A, Dhamnetiya D, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Doyle KE, Duncan BB, Ekholuenetale M, Filip I, Fischer F, Franklin RC, Gaidhane AM, Gaidhane S, Gallus S, Ghamari F, Ghashghaee A, Ghozali G, Gilani SA, Glavan I-R, Golechha M, Goulart BNG, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Hamidi S, Hammond BR, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari G, Hoffman HJ, Hopf KP, Hosseinzadeh M, Househ M, Hussain R, Hwang B-F, Iavicoli I, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Iwagami M, Jacob L, Jayapal SK, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Kalhor R, Al-Salihi NK, Kandel H, Kasa AS, Kayode GA, Khalilov R, Khan EA, Khatib MN, Kosen S, Koyanagi A, Kumar GA, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lim SS, Liu X, Lobo SW, Lugo A, Makki A, Mendoza W, Mersha AG, Mihretie KM, Miller TR, Misra S, Mohamed TA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed A, Mokdad AH, Moni MA, Kandel SN, Huong LTN, Nixon MR, Noubiap JJ, Nunez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Oguoma VM, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Orru H, Owolabi MO, Padubidri JR, Pakshir K, Pardhan S, Kan FP, Pasovic M, Pawar S, Hai QP, Pinheiro M, Pourshams A, Rabiee N, Rabiee M, Radfar A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahmani AM, Rana J, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rashedi V, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Renzaho AMN, Rezapour A, Ripon RK, Rodrigues V, Rustagi N, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Samy AM, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Schlee W, Schmidt MI, Seylani A, Shaikh MA, Shannawaz M, Shiferaw WS, Siabani S, Singal A, Singh JA, Singh JK, Singhal D, Skret al., 2021, Hearing loss prevalence and years lived with disability, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 397, Pages: 996-1009, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundHearing loss affects access to spoken language, which can affect cognition and development, and can negatively affect social wellbeing. We present updated estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study on the prevalence of hearing loss in 2019, as well as the condition's associated disability.MethodsWe did systematic reviews of population-representative surveys on hearing loss prevalence from 1990 to 2019. We fitted nested meta-regression models for severity-specific prevalence, accounting for hearing aid coverage, cause, and the presence of tinnitus. We also forecasted the prevalence of hearing loss until 2050.FindingsAn estimated 1·57 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·51–1·64) people globally had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for one in five people (20·3% [19·5–21·1]). Of these, 403·3 million (357·3–449·5) people had hearing loss that was moderate or higher in severity after adjusting for hearing aid use, and 430·4 million (381·7–479·6) without adjustment. The largest number of people with moderate-to-complete hearing loss resided in the Western Pacific region (127·1 million people [112·3–142·6]). Of all people with a hearing impairment, 62·1% (60·2–63·9) were older than 50 years. The Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index explained 65·8% of the variation in national age-standardised rates of years lived with disability, because countries with a low HAQ Index had higher rates of years lived with disability. By 2050, a projected 2·45 billion (2·35–2·56) people will have hearing loss, a 56·1% (47·3–65·2) increase from 2019, despite stable age-standardised prevalence.InterpretationAs populations age, the number of people with hearing loss will increase. Interventions such as childhood screening, hearing aids, effective ma

Journal article

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