Imperial College London
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DrDylanRood

Faculty of Engineering, Department of Earth Science & Engineering

Senior Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 7461d.rood

 
 
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Location

 

4.43Royal School of MinesSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Rood:2020:10.1029/2020av000182,
author = {Rood, AH and Rood, DH and Stirling, MW and Madugo, CM and Abrahamson, NA and Wilcken, KM and Gonzalez, T and Kottke, A and Whittaker, AC and Page, WD and Stafford, PJ},
doi = {10.1029/2020av000182},
journal = {AGU Advances},
pages = {1--24},
title = {Earthquake hazard uncertainties improved using precariously balanced rocks},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020av000182},
volume = {1},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the stateoftheart method to estimate ground motions exceeded by large, infrequent, and potentially damaging earthquakes; however, a fundamental problem is the lack of an accepted method for both quantitatively validating and refining the hazard estimates using empirical geological data. In this study, to reduce uncertainties in such hazard estimates, we present a new method that uses empirical data from precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) in coastal Central California. We calculate the probability of toppling of each PBR at defined groundmotion levels and determine the age at which the PBRs obtained their current fragile geometries using a novel implementation of cosmogenic 10Be exposure dating. By eliminating the PSHA estimates inconsistent with at least a 5% probability of PBR survival, the mean groundmotion estimate corresponding to the hazard level of 10−4 yr−1 (10,000 yr mean return period) is significantly reduced by 27%, and the range of estimated 5th–95th fractile ground motions is reduced by 49%. Such significant reductions in uncertainties make it possible to more reliably assess the safety and security of critical infrastructure in earthquakeprone regions worldwide.
AU  - Rood,AH
AU  - Rood,DH
AU  - Stirling,MW
AU  - Madugo,CM
AU  - Abrahamson,NA
AU  - Wilcken,KM
AU  - Gonzalez,T
AU  - Kottke,A
AU  - Whittaker,AC
AU  - Page,WD
AU  - Stafford,PJ
DO  - 10.1029/2020av000182
EP  - 24
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 2576-604X
SP  - 1
TI  - Earthquake hazard uncertainties improved using precariously balanced rocks
T2  - AGU Advances
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020av000182
UR  - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020AV000182
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/83279
VL  - 1
ER  -
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