3 results found
Elie R, Hubert E, Mastrolia T, et al., 2021, Mean-field moral hazard for optimal energy demand response management, Mathematical Finance, Vol: 31, Pages: 399-473, ISSN: 0960-1627
We study the problem of demand response contracts in electricity markets by quantifying the impact of considering a continuum of consumers with mean–field interaction, whose consumption is impacted by a common noise. We formulate the problem as a Principal–Agent problem with moral hazard in which the Principal—she—is an electricity producer who observes continuously the consumption of a continuum of risk‐averse consumers, and designs contracts in order to reduce her production costs. More precisely, the producer incentivizes each consumer to reduce the average and the volatility of his consumption in different usages, without observing the efforts he makes. We prove that the producer can benefit from considering the continuum of consumers by indexing contracts on the consumption of one Agent and aggregate consumption statistics from the distribution of the entire population of consumers. In the case of linear energy valuation, we provide closed‐form expression for this new type of optimal contracts that maximizes the utility of the producer. In most cases, we show that this new type of contracts allows the Principal to choose the risks she wants to bear, and to reduce the problem at hand to an uncorrelated one.
Elie R, Hubert E, Turinici G, 2020, Contact rate epidemic control of COVID-19: an equilibrium view, Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena, Vol: 15, Pages: 1-35, ISSN: 0973-5348
We consider the control of the COVID-19 pandemic through a standard SIR compartmental model. This control is induced by the aggregation of individuals’ decisions to limit their social interactions: when the epidemic is ongoing, an individual can diminish his/her contact rate in order to avoid getting infected, but this effort comes at a social cost. If each individual lowers his/her contact rate, the epidemic vanishes faster, but the effort cost may be high. A Mean Field Nash equilibrium at the population level is formed, resulting in a lower effective transmission rate of the virus. We prove theoretically that equilibrium exists and compute it numerically. However, this equilibrium selects a sub-optimal solution in comparison to the societal optimum (a centralized decision respected fully by all individuals), meaning that the cost of anarchy is strictly positive. We provide numerical examples and a sensitivity analysis, as well as an extension to a SEIR compartmental model to account for the relatively long latent phase of the COVID-19 disease. In all the scenario considered, the divergence between the individual and societal strategies happens both before the peak of the epidemic, due to individuals’ fears, and after, when a significant propagation is still underway.
Hubert E, Turinici G, 2018, Nash-MFG equilibrium in a SIR model with time dependent newborn vaccination, Ricerche di Matematica, Vol: 67, Pages: 227-246, ISSN: 0035-5038
We study the newborn, non compulsory, vaccination in a SIR model with vital dynamics. The evolution of each individual is modeled as a Markov chain. His/Her vaccination decision optimizes a criterion depending on the time-dependent aggregate (societal) vaccination rate and the future epidemic dynamics. We prove the existence of a Nash-Mean Field Games equilibrium among all individuals in the population. Then we propose a novel numerical approach to find the equilibrium and test it numerically.
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