Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

Dr Esma (Esther) Koca

Business School

Principal Teaching Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 9136e.koca Website

 
 
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Location

 

City and Guilds BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{DAeth:2023:10.1287/mnsc.2023.4679,
author = {DAeth, J and Ghosal, S and Grimm, F and Haw, D and Koca, E and Lau, K and Liu, H and Moret, S and Rizmie, D and Smith, P and Forchini, G and Miraldo, M and Wiesemann, W},
doi = {10.1287/mnsc.2023.4679},
journal = {Management Science},
pages = {5923--5947},
title = {Optimal hospital care scheduling during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4679},
volume = {69},
year = {2023}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - The COVID-19 pandemic has seen dramatic demand surges for hospital care that have placed a severe strain on health systems worldwide. As a result, policy makers are faced with the challenge of managing scarce hospital capacity so as to reduce the backlog of non-COVID patients whilst maintaining the ability to respond to any potential future increases in demand for COVID care. In this paper, we propose a nation-wide prioritization scheme that models each individual patient as a dynamic program whose states encode the patient’s health and treatment condition, whose actions describe the available treatment options, whose transition probabilities characterize the stochastic evolution of the patient’s health and whose rewards encode the contribution to the overall objectives of the health system. The individual patients’ dynamic programs are coupled through constraints on the available resources, such as hospital beds, doctors and nurses. We show that the overall problem can be modeled as a grouped weakly coupled dynamic program for which we determine near-optimal solutions through a fluid approximation. Our case study for the National Health Service in England shows how years of life can be gained by prioritizing specific disease types over COVID patients, such as injury & poisoning, diseases of the respiratory system, diseases of the circulatory system, diseases of the digestive system and cancer.
AU  - DAeth,J
AU  - Ghosal,S
AU  - Grimm,F
AU  - Haw,D
AU  - Koca,E
AU  - Lau,K
AU  - Liu,H
AU  - Moret,S
AU  - Rizmie,D
AU  - Smith,P
AU  - Forchini,G
AU  - Miraldo,M
AU  - Wiesemann,W
DO  - 10.1287/mnsc.2023.4679
EP  - 5947
PY  - 2023///
SN  - 0025-1909
SP  - 5923
TI  - Optimal hospital care scheduling during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
T2  - Management Science
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4679
UR  - https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4679
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/97857
VL  - 69
ER  -
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