Publications
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Challenger J, Nash RK, Ngufor C, et al., 2023, Assessing the variability in experimental hut trials evaluating insecticide-treated nets against malaria vectors, Current Research in Parasitology & Vector-Borne Diseases, Vol: 3, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2667-114X
Experimental hut trials (EHTs) are used to evaluate indoor vector control interventions against malaria vectors in a controlled setting. The level of variability present in the assay will influence whether a given study is well powered to answer the research question being considered. We utilised disaggregated data from 15 previous EHTs to gain insight into the behaviour typically observed. Using simulations from generalised linear mixed models to obtain power estimates for EHTs, we show how factors such as the number of mosquitoes entering the huts each night and the magnitude of included random effects can influence study power. A wide variation in behaviour is observed in both the mean number of mosquitoes collected per hut per night (ranging from 1.6 to 32.5) and overdispersion in mosquito mortality. This variability in mortality is substantially greater than would be expected by chance and should be included in all statistical analyses to prevent false precision of results. We utilise both superiority and non-inferiority trials to illustrate our methodology, using mosquito mortality as the outcome of interest. The framework allows the measurement error of the assay to be reliably assessed and enables the identification of outlier results which could warrant further investigation. EHTs are increasingly playing an important role in the evaluation and regulation of indoor vector control interventions so it is important to ensure that these studies are adequately powered.
Whittaker C, Hamlet A, Sherrard-Smith E, et al., 2023, Seasonal dynamics of Anopheles stephensi and its implications for mosquito detection and emergent malaria control in the Horn of Africa, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, Vol: 120, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0027-8424
Invasion of the malaria vector Anopheles stephensi across the Horn of Africa threatens control efforts across the continent, particularly in urban settings where the vector is able to proliferate. Malaria transmission is primarily determined by the abundance of dominant vectors, which often varies seasonally with rainfall. However, it remains unclear how An. stephensi abundance changes throughout the year, despite this being a crucial input to surveillance and control activities. We collate longitudinal catch data from across its endemic range to better understand the vector's seasonal dynamics and explore the implications of this seasonality for malaria surveillance and control across the Horn of Africa. Our analyses reveal pronounced variation in seasonal dynamics, the timing and nature of which are poorly predicted by rainfall patterns. Instead, they are associated with temperature and patterns of land use; frequently differing between rural and urban settings. Our results show that timing entomological surveys to coincide with rainy periods is unlikely to improve the likelihood of detecting An. stephensi. Integrating these results into a malaria transmission model, we show that timing indoor residual spraying campaigns to coincide with peak rainfall offers little improvement in reducing disease burden compared to starting in a random month. Our results suggest that unlike other malaria vectors in Africa, rainfall may be a poor guide to predicting the timing of peaks in An. stephensi-driven malaria transmission. This highlights the urgent need for longitudinal entomological monitoring of the vector in its new environments given recent invasion and potential spread across the continent.
Unwin H, Sherrard-Smith E, Churcher T, et al., 2023, Quantifying the direct and indirect protection provided by insecticide treated bed nets against malaria, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 2041-1723
Long lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) provide both direct and indirect protection against malaria. As pyrethroid resistance evolves in mosquito vectors, it will be useful to understand how the specific benefits LLINs afford individuals and communities may be affected. Here we use modelling to show that there is no minimum LLIN usage needed for users and non-users to benefit from community protection. Modelling results also indicate that pyrethroid resistance in local mosquitoes will likely diminish the direct and indirect benefits from insecticides, leaving the barrier effects intact, but LLINs are still expected to provide enhanced benefit over untreated nets even at high levels of pyrethroid resistance.
Gansané A, Candrinho B, Mbituyumuremyi A, et al., 2022, Design and methods for a quasi-experimental pilot study to evaluate the impact of dual active ingredient insecticide-treated nets on malaria burden in five regions in sub-Saharan Africa, Malaria Journal, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-20, ISSN: 1475-2875
BackgroundVector control tools have contributed significantly to a reduction in malaria burden since 2000, primarily through insecticidal-treated bed nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying. In the face of increasing insecticide resistance in key malaria vector species, global progress in malaria control has stalled. Innovative tools, such as dual active ingredient (dual-AI) ITNs that are effective at killing insecticide-resistant mosquitoes have recently been introduced. However, large-scale uptake has been slow for several reasons, including higher costs and limited evidence on their incremental effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The present report describes the design of several observational studies aimed to determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dual-AI ITNs, compared to standard pyrethroid-only ITNs, at reducing malaria transmission across a variety of transmission settings.MethodsObservational pilot studies are ongoing in Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Rwanda, leveraging dual-AI ITN rollouts nested within the 2019 and 2020 mass distribution campaigns in each country. Enhanced surveillance occurring in select study districts include annual cross-sectional surveys during peak transmission seasons, monthly entomological surveillance, passive case detection using routine health facility surveillance systems, and studies on human behaviour and ITN use patterns. Data will compare changes in malaria transmission and disease burden in districts receiving dual-AI ITNs to similar districts receiving standard pyrethroid-only ITNs over three years. The costs of net distribution will be calculated using the provider perspective including financial and economic costs, and a cost-effectiveness analysis will assess incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for Interceptor® G2, Royal Guard®, and piperonyl butoxide ITNs in comparison to standard pyrethroid-only ITNs, based on incidence rate ratios calculated from routine data.ConclusionsEvidence
Fernandez Montoya L, Maquina M, Marti-Soler H, et al., 2022, The realized efficacy of indoor residual spraying campaigns falls quickly below the recommended WHO threshold when coverage, pace of spraying and residual efficacy on different wall types are considered, PLOS ONE, Vol: 17, ISSN: 1932-6203
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Montoya LF, Marti-Soler H, Maquina M, et al., 2022, The mosquito vectors that sustained malaria transmission during the Magude project despite the combined deployment of indoor residual spraying, insecticide-treated nets and mass-drug administration, PLOS ONE, Vol: 17, ISSN: 1932-6203
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Sherrard-Smith E, Ngufor C, Sanou A, et al., 2022, Inferring the epidemiological benefit of indoor vector control interventions against malaria from mosquito data, Nature Communications, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2041-1723
The cause of malaria transmission has been known for over a century but it is still unclear whether entomological measures are sufficiently reliable to inform policy decisions in human health. Decision-making on the effectiveness of new insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and the indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) have been based on epidemiological data, typically collected in cluster-randomised control trials. The number of these trials that can be conducted is limited. Here we use a systematic review to highlight that efficacy estimates of the same intervention may vary substantially between trials. Analyses indicate that mosquito data collected in experimental hut trials can be used to parameterize mechanistic models for Plasmodium falciparum malaria and reliably predict the epidemiological efficacy of quick-acting, neuro-acting ITNs and IRS. Results suggest that for certain types of ITNs and IRS using this framework instead of clinical endpoints could support policy and expedite the widespread use of novel technologies.
Montoya LF, Martí-Soler H, Máquina M, et al., 2022, The mosquito vectors that sustained malaria transmission during the Magude project despite the combined deployment of indoor residual spraying, insecticide-treated nets and mass-drug administration
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>The “Magude project” aimed but failed to interrupt local malaria transmission in Magude district, southern Mozambique, by using a comprehensive package of interventions, including indoor residual spraying (IRS), pyrethroid-only long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) and mass-drug administration (MDA). Here we present detailed information on the vector species that sustained malaria transmission, their association with malaria incidence and behaviors, and their amenability to the implemented control interventions. Mosquitoes were collected monthly between May 2015 and October 2017 in six sentinel sites in Magude district, using CDC light traps both indoors and outdoors. <jats:italic>Anopheles arabiensis</jats:italic> was the main vector during the project, while <jats:italic>An. funestus s.s</jats:italic>., <jats:italic>An. merus, An. parensis</jats:italic> and <jats:italic>An. squamosus</jats:italic> likely played a secondary role. The latter two species have never previously been found positive for <jats:italic>Plasmodium falciparum</jats:italic> in southern Mozambique. The intervention package successfully reduced vector sporozoite rates in all species throughout the project. IRS was effective in controlling <jats:italic>An. funestus s.s</jats:italic>. and <jats:italic>An. parensis</jats:italic>, which virtually disappeared after its first implementation, but less effective at controlling <jats:italic>An. arabiensis</jats:italic>. Despite suboptimal use, LLINs likely provided significant protection against <jats:italic>An. arabiensis</jats:italic> and <jats:italic>An. merus</jats:italic> that sought their host largely indoors when people where in bed. Adding IRS on top of LLINs and MDA likely added value to the control of malaria vectors during the Magude project. Futur
Opiyo M, Sherrard-Smith E, Malheia A, et al., 2022, Household modifications after the indoor residual spraying (IRS) campaign in Mozambique reduce the actual spray coverage and efficacy, PLOS Global Public Health, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2767-3375
Indoor residual spraying of insecticides (IRS) is a key malaria vector control strategy. Whilst human attitude towards IRS is monitored before or shortly after implementation, human activities leading to the modification of insecticide-treated walls post-IRS are not. This could inadvertently reduce the protective effects of IRS. We monitored the extent of modifications to the sprayed indoor wall surfaces by household owners for six months post-IRS campaigns in two districts targeted for malaria elimination in southern Mozambique. In parallel, we assessed building of any additional rooms onto compounds, and mosquito net use. We quantified the contribution of wall modifications, added rooms, prolonged spray campaigns, and product residual efficacies on actual IRS coverage and relative mosquito bite reduction, using a mechanistic approach. Household owners continually modified insecticide-treated walls and added rooms onto compounds. Household surveys in southern Mozambique showed frequent modification of indoor walls (0–17.2% of households modified rooms monthly) and/or added rooms (0–16.2% of households added rooms monthly). Actual IRS coverage reduced from an assumed 97% to just 39% in Matutuine, but only from 96% to 91% in Boane, translating to 43% and 5.8% estimated increases in relative daily mosquito bites per person. Integrating post-IRS knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) surveys into programmatic evaluations to capture these modification and construction trends can help improve IRS program efficiency and product assessment.
Green N, Agossa F, Yovogan B, et al., 2022, An evidence synthesis approach for combining different data sources illustrated using entomological efficacy of insecticides for indoor residual spraying, PLoS One, Vol: 17, Pages: e0263446-e0263446, ISSN: 1932-6203
BackgroundProspective malaria public health interventions are initially tested for entomological impact using standardised experimental hut trials. In some cases, data are collated as aggregated counts of potential outcomes from mosquito feeding attempts given the presence of an insecticidal intervention. Comprehensive data i.e. full breakdowns of probable outcomes of mosquito feeding attempts, are more rarely available. Bayesian evidence synthesis is a framework that explicitly combines data sources to enable the joint estimation of parameters and their uncertainties. The aggregated and comprehensive data can be combined using an evidence synthesis approach to enhance our inference about the potential impact of vector control products across different settings over time.MethodsAggregated and comprehensive data from a meta-analysis of the impact of Pirimiphos-methyl, an indoor residual spray (IRS) product active ingredient, used on wall surfaces to kill mosquitoes and reduce malaria transmission, were analysed using a series of statistical models to understand the benefits and limitations of each.ResultsMany more data are available in aggregated format (N = 23 datasets, 4 studies) relative to comprehensive format (N = 2 datasets, 1 study). The evidence synthesis model had the smallest uncertainty at predicting the probability of mosquitoes dying or surviving and blood-feeding. Generating odds ratios from the correlated Bernoulli random sample indicates that when mortality and blood-feeding are positively correlated, as exhibited in our data, the number of successfully fed mosquitoes will be under-estimated. Analysis of either dataset alone is problematic because aggregated data require an assumption of independence and there are few and variable data in the comprehensive format.ConclusionsWe developed an approach to combine sources from trials to maximise the inference that can be made from such data and that is applicable to other systems. Bayesian evidence synthes
Martin JL, Messenger LA, Mosha FW, et al., 2022, Durability of three types of dual active ingredient long-lasting insecticidal net compared to a pyrethroid-only LLIN in Tanzania: methodology for a prospective cohort study nested in a cluster randomized controlled trial., Malaria Journal, Vol: 21, Pages: 96-96, ISSN: 1475-2875
BACKGROUND: Progress achieved by long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against malaria is threatened by widespread selection of pyrethroid resistance among vector populations. LLINs with non-pyrethroid insecticides are urgently needed. This study aims to assess the insecticide and textile durability of three classes of dual-active ingredient (A.I.) LLINs using techniques derived from established WHO LLIN testing methods to set new standards of evaluation. METHODS: A WHO Phase 3 active ingredients and textile durability study will be carried out within a cluster randomized controlled trial in 40 clusters in Misungwi district, Tanzania. The following treatments will be evaluated: (1) Interceptor®G2 combining chlorfenapyr and the pyrethroid alpha-cypermethrin, (2) Royal Guard® treated with pyriproxyfen and alpha-cypermethrin, (3) Olyset™ Plus which incorporates a synergist piperonyl butoxide and the pyrethroid permethrin, and (4) a reference standard alpha-cypermethrin only LLIN (Interceptor®). 750 nets will be followed in 5 clusters per intervention arm at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months post distribution for survivorship and hole index assessment. A second cohort of 1950 nets per net type will be identified in 10 clusters, of which 30 LLINs will be withdrawn for bio-efficacy and chemical analysis every 6 months up to 36 months and another 30 collected for experimental hut trials every year. Bio-efficacy will be assessed using cone bioassays and tunnel tests against susceptible and resistant laboratory strains of Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto. Efficacy of field-collected nets will be compared in six experimental huts. The main outcomes will be Anopheles mortality up to 72 h post exposure, blood feeding and egg maturation using ovary dissection to assess impact on fecundity. CONCLUSIONS: Study findings will help develop bio-efficacy and physical durability criteria for partner A.I., in relation to the cRCT epidemiological and entomologi
Sherrard-Smith E, Winskill P, Hamlet A, 2022, Optimising the deployment of vector control tools against malaria: a data-informed modelling study (vol 6, pg e100, 2022), LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH, Vol: 6, Pages: E191-E191
Sherrard-Smith E, Winskill P, Hamlet A, et al., 2022, Optimising the deployment of vector control tools against malaria: a data-informed modelling study, The Lancet Planetary Health, Vol: 6, Pages: e100-e109, ISSN: 2542-5196
Background Concern that insecticide resistant mosquitoes are threatening malaria control has driven the development of new types of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). Malaria control programmes have a choice of vector control interventions though it is unclear which should be used to combat the disease.MethodsThe entomological impact of ITNs combining a pyrethroid insecticide with the synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO) is characterised from experimental hut trials and used to parameterise a malaria transmission dynamics model. Model projections are validated for two sites by comparing results to data from pyrethroid-PBO ITN and IRS randomised control trials (RCTs). Models are used to identify optimum intervention packages for scenarios with varying budget, price, entomological and epidemiological factors. Findings Combining entomological data and models can reasonably predict changes in malaria in the Tanzanian and Ugandan RCTs. Models indicate switching from pyrethroid-only to pyrethroid-PBO ITNs could avert up to twice as many cases, though the additional benefit is highly variable and depends upon setting. Annual delivery of long-lasting, non-pyrethroid IRS is projected to prevent substantially more cases over 3-years, but pyrethroid-PBO ITNs tend to be the most cost-effective intervention per case averted. An online tool (MINT) provides users with a method of designing intervention packages given their setting and budget. InterpretationThe most cost-effective vector control package will vary locally. Models able to recreate results of RCTs can be used to extrapolate outcomes elsewhere to support evidence-based decision making for investment in vector control.FundingMedical Research Council, IVCC, Wellcome Trust.
Coleman S, Yihdego Y, Sherrard-Smith E, et al., 2021, Partial indoor residual spraying with pirimiphos-methyl as an effective and cost-saving measure for the control of <i>Anopheles gambiae</i> s.l. in northern Ghana, SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2045-2322
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- Citations: 4
Nash RK, Lambert B, NGuessan R, et al., 2021, Systematic review of the entomological impact of insecticide-treated nets evaluated using experimental hut trials in Africa, Current Research in Parasitology & Vector-Borne Diseases, Vol: 1, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 2667-114X
Resistance of anopheline mosquitoes to pyrethroid insecticides is spreading rapidly across sub-Saharan Africa, diminishing the efficacy of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) – the primary tool for preventing malaria. The entomological efficacy of indoor vector control interventions can be measured in experimental hut trials (EHTs), where hut structures resemble local housing, but allow the collection of mosquitoes that entered, exited, blood-fed and/or died. There is a need to understand how the spread of resistance changes ITN efficacy and to elucidate factors influencing EHT results, including differences in experimental hut design, to support the development of novel vector control tools. A comprehensive database of EHTs was compiled following a systematic review to identify all known trials investigating ITNs or indoor residual spraying across sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis focuses on EHTs investigating ITNs and uses Bayesian statistical models to characterise the complex interaction between ITNs and mosquitoes, the between-study variability, and the impact of pyrethroid resistance. As resistance rises, the entomological efficacy of ITNs declines. They induce less mortality and are less likely to deter mosquitoes from entering huts. Despite this, ITNs continue to offer considerable personal protection by reducing mosquito feeding until resistance reaches high levels. There are clear associations between the different entomological impacts of ITNs, though there is still substantial variability between studies, some of which can be accounted for by hut design. The relationship between EHT outcomes and the level of resistance (as measured by discriminating dose bioassays) is highly uncertain. The meta-analyses show that EHTs are an important reproducible assay for capturing the complex entomological efficacy of ITNs on blood-feeding mosquitoes. The impact of pyrethroid resistance on these measures appears broadly consistent across a wide geographical area onc
Marti-Soler H, Máquina M, Opiyo M, et al., 2021, Effect of wall type, delayed mortality and mosquito age on the residual efficacy of a clothianidin-based indoor residual spray formulation (SumiShield™ 50WG) in southern Mozambique, PLoS One, Vol: 16, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 1932-6203
Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is one of the main malaria vector control strategies in Mozambique alongside the distribution of insecticide treated nets. As part of the national insecticide resistance management strategy, Mozambique introduced SumiShield™ 50WG, a third generation IRS product, in 2018. Its residual efficacy was assessed in southern Mozambique during the 2018–2019 malaria season. Using a susceptible Anopheles arabiensis strain, residual efficacy was assessed on two different wall surfaces, cement and mud-plastered walls, using standard WHO (World Health Organization) cone bioassay tests at three different heights. Female mosquitoes of two age groups (2–5 and 13–26 day old) were exposed for 30 minutes, after which mortality was observed 24h, 48h, 72h, and 96h and 120h post-exposure to assess (delayed) mortality. Lethal times (LT) 90, LT50 and LT10 were estimated using Bayesian models. Mortality 24h post exposure was consistently below 80%, the current WHO threshold value for effective IRS, in both young and old mosquitoes, regardless of wall surface type. Considering delayed mortality, residual efficacies (mosquito mortality equal or greater than 80%) ranged from 1.5 to ≥12.5 months, with the duration depending on mortality time post exposure, wall type and mosquito age. Looking at mortality 72h after exposure, residual efficacy was between 6.5 and 9.5 months, depending on wall type and mosquito age. The LT50 and LT10 (i.e. 90% of the mosquitoes survive exposure to the insecticides) values were consistently higher for older mosquitoes (except for LT10 values for 48h and 72h post-exposure mortality) and ranged from 0.9 to 5.8 months and 0.2 to 7.8 months for LT50 and LT10, respectively. The present study highlights the need for assessing mosquito mortality beyond the currently recommended 24h post exposure. Failure to do so may lead to underestimation of the residual efficacy of IRS products, as delayed mortality will lead to
Djaafara A, Whittaker C, Watson OJ, et al., 2021, Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia in the context of vaccination roll-out, BMC Medicine, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1741-7015
Background: As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. Methods: We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine roll-out. Results: C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled-out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. Conclusions: Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.
Marti-Soler H, Maquina M, Opiyo M, et al., 2021, Effect of wall type, delayed mortality and mosquito age on the residual efficacy of a clothianidin-based indoor residual spray formulation (SumiShield™ 50WG) in southern Mozambique
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is one of the main malaria vector control strategies in Mozambique alongside the distribution of insecticide treated nets. As part of the national insecticide resistance management strategy, Mozambique introduced SumiShield™ 50WG, a third generation IRS product, in 2018. Its residual efficacy was assessed in southern Mozambique during the 2018-2019 malaria season.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>Two different wall surfaces, cement and mud-plastered surfaces, daily mosquito mortality up to 120 hours post-exposure, and older mosquitoes (13-26d old) were included in standard WHO (World Health Organization) cone bioassay tests. Lethal times (LT) 90, LT50 and LT10 were estimated using Bayesian models.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>Mortality 24h post exposure was consistently below 80%, the current WHO threshold value for effective IRS, in both young and old mosquitoes, regardless of wall surface type. Considering delayed mortality, residual efficacies (mosquito mortality equal or greater than 80%) ranged from 1 to ≥12 months, with the duration depending on mortality time post exposure, wall type and mosquito age. Looking at mortality 72h after exposure, residual efficacy was between 6 and 9 months, depending on wall type and mosquito age. Mortality of older mosquitoes was significantly higher on mud-surfaces compared to cemented-surfaces 24h post exposure, but this difference was not significant for the delayed mortalities. The LT<jats:sub>50</jats:sub> and LT<jats:sub>10</jats:sub> (i.e. 90% of the mosquitoes survive exposure to the insecticides) values were consistently higher for older mosquitoes using the 24h post-exposure observations and
Hellewell J, Sherrard-Smith E, Ogoma S, et al., 2021, Assessing the impact of low-technology emanators alongside long-lasting insecticidal nets to control malaria, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol: 376, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0962-8436
Malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa relies on the widespread use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) or the indoor residual spraying of insecticide. Disease transmission may be maintained even when these indoor interventions are universally used as some mosquitoes will bite in the early morning and evening when people are outside. As countries seek to eliminate malaria, they can target outdoor biting using new vector control tools such as spatial repellent emanators, which emit airborne insecticide to form a protective area around the user. Field data are used to incorporate a low-technology emanator into a mathematical model of malaria transmission to predict its public health impact across a range of scenarios. Targeting outdoor biting by repeatedly distributing emanators alongside LLINs increases the chance of elimination, but the additional benefit depends on the level of anthropophagy in the local mosquito population, emanator effectiveness and the pre-intervention proportion of mosquitoes biting outdoors. High proportions of pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes diminish LLIN impact because of reduced mosquito mortality. When mosquitoes are highly anthropophagic, this reduced mortality leads to more outdoor biting and a reduced additional benefit of emanators, even if emanators are assumed to retain their effectiveness in the presence of pyrethroid resistance. Different target product profiles are examined, which show the extra epidemiological benefits of spatial repellents that induce mosquito mortality.
Guglielmo F, Sanou A, Churcher TS, et al., 2021, Quantifying the individual variability in people’s exposure to mosquito bites in Burkina Faso, Malaria Journal
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p><jats:bold>Background</jats:bold>The Cascades Region, Burkina Faso, has high malaria burden despite reported high insecticide treated bed net (ITN) use. Human and vector activities outside the hours when indoor interventions offer direct protection from infectious bites potentially increase exposure risk to bites from malaria-transmitting <jats:italic>Anopheles </jats:italic>mosquitoes. We investigate the degree of variation in human behaviour both between individuals and through time (season) to quantify how it impacts exposure to malaria vectors.<jats:bold>Methods</jats:bold>Patterns in human overnight activity (18:00-06:00) to quantify time spent using an ITN across 7 successive nights in two rural communities, Niakore (N = 24 participants) and Toma (71 participants), were observed in the dry and rainy seasons, between 2017-2018. Hourly human landing <jats:italic>Anopheles </jats:italic>mosquito catches were conducted in Niakore specifically, and Cascades Region generally, between 2016-2017. Data were statistically combined to estimate seasonal variation in time spent outdoors and <jats:italic>Anopheles </jats:italic>bites received per person per night (bpppn).<jats:bold>Results</jats:bold>Substantial variability in exposure to outdoor <jats:italic>Anopheles</jats:italic> bites was detected within and between communities and across seasons. In October, when <jats:italic>Anopheles </jats:italic>densities are highest, an individual’s risk of <jats:italic>Anopheles</jats:italic> bites ranged from 2.2 to 52.2 bpppn within the same week with variable risk dependent on hours spent indoors. Comparably higher outdoor human activity was observed in April and July but, due to lower <jats:italic>Anopheles </jats:italic>densities estimated bpppn were 0.2 – 4.7 bpppn, and 0.5 &nda
Guglielmo F, Sanou A, Churcher TS, et al., 2021, Quantifying individual variability in exposure risk to mosquito bites in the Cascades region, Burkina Faso, Malaria Journal, Vol: 20, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 1475-2875
BackgroundThe Cascades region, Burkina Faso, has a high malaria burden despite reported high insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN) use. Human and vector activities outside the hours when indoor interventions offer direct protection from infectious bites potentially increase exposure risk to bites from malaria-transmitting Anopheles mosquitoes. This work investigated the degree of variation in human behaviour both between individuals and through time (season) to quantify how it impacts exposure to malaria vectors.MethodsPatterns in human overnight activity (18:00–06:00) to quantify time spent using an ITN across 7 successive nights in two rural communities, Niakore (N = 24 participants) and Toma (71 participants), were observed in the dry and rainy seasons, between 2017 and 2018. Hourly human landing Anopheles mosquito catches were conducted in Niakore specifically, and Cascades region generally, between 2016 and 2017. Data were statistically combined to estimate seasonal variation in time spent outdoors and Anopheles bites received per person per night (bpppn).ResultsSubstantial variability in exposure to outdoor Anopheles bites was detected within and between communities across seasons. In October, when Anopheles densities are highest, an individual’s risk of Anopheles bites ranged from 2.2 to 52.2 bites per person per night (bpppn) within the same week with variable risk dependent on hours spent indoors. Comparably higher outdoor human activity was observed in April and July but, due to lower Anopheles densities estimated, bpppn were 0.2–4.7 and 0.5–32.0, respectively. Males and people aged over 21 years were predicted to receive more bites in both sentinel villages.ConclusionThis work presents one of the first clear descriptions of the degree of heterogeneity in time spent outdoors between people and across the year. Appreciation of sociodemographic, cultural and entomological activities will help refine approaches to vector
Djaafara BA, Whittaker C, Watson OJ, et al., 2021, Quantifying the Dynamics of COVID-19 Burden and Impact of Interventions in Java, Indonesia, Publisher: Elsevier BV
Djaafara BA, Whittaker C, Watson OJ, et al., 2020, Quantifying the dynamics of COVID-19 burden and impact of interventions in Java, Indonesia
<jats:title>ABSTRACT</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine roll-out.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled-out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion</jats:title><jats:p>Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these be
Hogan A, Jewell B, Sherrard-Smith E, et al., 2020, Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, TB and malaria in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study, The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 8, Pages: e1132-e1141, ISSN: 2214-109X
Background: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, including by cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions in services for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), tuberculosis (TB) and malaria in low- and middle-income countries with high burdens of those disease could lead to additional loss of life. Methods: We constructed plausible scenarios for the disruptions that could be incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic and used established transmission models for each disease to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings.Findings: In high burden settings, HIV-, TB- and malaria-related deaths over five years may increase by up to 10%, 20% and 36%, respectively, compared to if there were no COVID-19 pandemic. We estimate the greatest impact on HIV to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which may occur during a period of high health system demand. For TB, we estimate the greatest impact is from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which may result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. We estimate that the greatest impact on malaria burden could come from interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to loss of life-years over five years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV/TB epidemics.Interpretation: Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and healthcare services for HIV, TB and malaria could significantly reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, The Wellcome Trust, DFID, MRC
Sherrard-Smith E, Hogan AB, Hamlet A, et al., 2020, The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa., Nature Medicine, Vol: 26, Pages: 1411-1416, ISSN: 1078-8956
The burden of malaria is heavily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 are rising1. In response, countries are implementing societal measures aimed at curtailing transmission of SARS-CoV-22,3. Despite these measures, the COVID-19 epidemic could still result in millions of deaths as local health facilities become overwhelmed4. Advances in malaria control this century have been largely due to distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs)5, with many SSA countries having planned campaigns for 2020. In the present study, we use COVID-19 and malaria transmission models to estimate the impact of disruption of malaria prevention activities and other core health services under four different COVID-19 epidemic scenarios. If activities are halted, the malaria burden in 2020 could be more than double that of 2019. In Nigeria alone, reducing case management for 6 months and delaying LLIN campaigns could result in 81,000 (44,000-119,000) additional deaths. Mitigating these negative impacts is achievable, and LLIN distributions in particular should be prioritized alongside access to antimalarial treatments to prevent substantial malaria epidemics.
Monroe A, Moore S, Okumu F, et al., 2020, Methods and indicators for measuring patterns of human exposure to malaria vectors (vol 19, 207, 2020), MALARIA JOURNAL, Vol: 19
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Suh E, Grossman MK, Waite JL, et al., 2020, The influence of feeding behaviour and temperature on the capacity of mosquitoes to transmit malaria, Nature Ecology and Evolution, Vol: 4, Pages: 940-951, ISSN: 2397-334X
Insecticide-treated bed nets reduce malaria transmission by limiting contact between mosquito vectors and human hosts when mosquitoes feed during the night. However, malaria vectors can also feed in the early evening and in the morning when people are not protected. Here, we explored how the timing of blood feeding interacts with environmental temperature to influence the capacity of Anopheles mosquitoes to transmit the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. In laboratory experiments, we found no effect of biting time itself on the proportion of mosquitoes that became infectious (vector competence) at constant temperature. However, when mosquitoes were maintained under more realistic fluctuating temperatures, there was a significant increase in competence for mosquitoes feeding in the evening (18:00), and a significant reduction in competence for those feeding in the morning (06:00), relative to those feeding at midnight (00:00). These effects appear to be due to thermal sensitivity of malaria parasites during the initial stages of parasite development within the mosquito, and the fact that mosquitoes feeding in the evening experience cooling temperatures during the night, whereas mosquitoes feeding in the morning quickly experience warming temperatures that are inhibitory to parasite establishment. A transmission dynamics model illustrates that such differences in competence could have important implications for malaria prevalence, the extent of transmission that persists in the presence of bed nets, and the epidemiological impact of behavioural resistance. These results indicate that the interaction of temperature and feeding behaviour could be a major ecological determinant of the vectorial capacity of malaria mosquitoes.
Monroe A, Moore S, Okumu F, et al., 2020, Methods and indicators for measuring patterns of human exposure to malaria vectors, Malaria Journal, Vol: 19, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 1475-2875
BackgroundEffective targeting and evaluation of interventions that protect against adult malaria vectors requires an understanding of how gaps in personal protection arise. An improved understanding of human and mosquito behaviour, and how they overlap in time and space, is critical to estimating the impact of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and determining when and where supplemental personal protection tools are needed. Methods for weighting estimates of human exposure to biting Anopheles mosquitoes according to where people spend their time were first developed over half a century ago. However, crude indoor and outdoor biting rates are still commonly interpreted as indicative of human-vector contact patterns without any adjustment for human behaviour or the personal protection effects of ITNs.Main textA small number of human behavioural variables capturing the distribution of human populations indoors and outdoors, whether they are awake or asleep, and if and when they use an ITN over the course of the night, can enable a more accurate representation of human biting exposure patterns. However, to date no clear guidance is available on what data should be collected, what indicators should be reported, or how they should be calculated. This article presents an integrated perspective on relevant indicators of human-vector interactions, the critical entomological and human behavioural data elements required to quantify human-vector interactions, and recommendations for collecting and analysing such data.ConclusionsIf collected and used consistently, this information can contribute to an improved understanding of how malaria transmission persists in the context of current intervention tools, how exposure patterns may change as new vector control tools are introduced, and the potential impact and limitations of these tools. This article is intended to consolidate understanding around work on this topic to date and provide a consistent framework for building upon it. Ad
Suh E, Grossman M, Waite J, et al., 2020, The influence of feeding behaviour and temperature on the capacity of mosquitoes to transmit malaria, Nature Ecology and Evolution, ISSN: 2397-334X
Insecticide-treated bed nets reduce malaria transmission by limiting contact between mosquito vectors and human hosts when mosquitoes feed during the night. However, malaria vectors can also feed in the early evening and in the morning when people are not protected. Here, we explored how timing of blood feeding interacts with environmental temperature to influence the capacity of Anopheles mosquitoes to transmit the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum . We found no effect of biting time itself on the proportion of mosquitoes that became infectious (vector competence) at constant temperature. However, when mosquitoes were maintained under more realistic fluctuating temperatures there was a significant increase in competence for mosquitoes feeding in the evening, and a significant reduction in competence for those feeding in the morning, relative to those feeding at midnight. These effects appear to be due to thermal sensitivity of malaria parasites during the initial stages of parasite development within the mosquito, and the fact that mosquitoes feeding in the evening experience cooling temperatures during the night, whereas mosquitoes feeding in the morning quickly experience warming temperatures that are inhibitory to parasite establishment. A transmission dynamics model illustrates that such differences in competence could have important implications for disease endemicity, the extent of transmission that persists in the presence of bed nets, and the epidemiological impact of behavioural resistance. These results indicate the interaction of temperature and feeding behaviour to be a major ecological determinant of the vectorial capacity of malaria mosquitoes.
Sherrard-Smith E, Hogan A, Hamlet A, et al., 2020, Report 18: The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa.
The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to severely interrupt health systems in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the coming weeks and months. Approximately 90% of malaria deaths occur in this region of the world, with an estimated 380,000 deaths from malaria in 2018. Much of the gain made in malaria control over the last decade has been due to the distribution of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs). Many SSA countries planned to distribute these in 2020. We used COVID-19 and malaria transmission models to understand the likely impact that disruption to these distributions, alongside other core health services, could have on the malaria burden. Results indicate that if all malaria-control activities are highly disrupted then the malaria burden in 2020 could more than double that in the previous year, resulting in large malaria epidemics across the region. These will depend on the course of the COVID-19 epidemic and how it interrupts local health system. Our results also demonstrate that it is essential to prioritise the LLIN distributions either before or as soon as possible into local COVID-19 epidemics to mitigate this risk. Additional planning to ensure other malaria prevention activities are continued where possible, alongside planning to ensure basic access to antimalarial treatment, will further minimise the risk of substantial additional malaria mortality.
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