Imperial College London
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DrEszterVamos

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Clinical Senior Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 7457e.vamos

 
 
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Location

 

321Reynolds BuildingCharing Cross Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Jawad:2020:10.1186/s12916-020-01708-5,
author = {Jawad, M and Hone, T and Vamos, E and Roderick, P and Sullivan, R and Millett, C},
doi = {10.1186/s12916-020-01708-5},
journal = {BMC Medicine},
pages = {1--11},
title = {Estimating indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations: panel regression analyses of 193 countries, 1990-2017},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01708-5},
volume = {266},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundArmed conflict can indirectly affect population health through detrimental impacts on political and social institutions and destruction of infrastructure. This study aimed to quantify indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations globally, and explore differential effects by armed conflict characteristics and population groups.Methods We included 193 countries between 1990 and 2017 and constructed fixed effects panel regression models using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Global Burden of Disease study. Mortality rates were corrected to exclude battle-related deaths. We assessed separately four different armed conflict variables (capturing binary, continuous, categorical and quintile exposures) and ran models by cause-specific mortality stratified by age groups and sex. Post-estimation analyses calculated the number of civilian deaths. ResultsWe identified 1,118 unique armed conflicts. Armed conflict was associated with increases in civilian mortality - driven by conflicts categorised as wars. Wars were associated with an increase in age-standardised all-cause mortality of 81.5 per 100.000 population (β 81.5, 95% CI 14.3-148.8) in adjusted models contributing 29.4 million civilian deaths (95% CI 22.1-36.6) globally over the study period. Mortality rates from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (β 51.3, 95% CI 2.6-99.9), non-communicable diseases (β 22.7, 95% CI 0.2-45.2) and injuries (β 7.6, 95% CI 3.4-11.7) associated with war increased, contributing 21.0 million (95% CI 16.3-25.6), 6.0 million (95% CI 4.1-8.0), and 2.4 million deaths (95% CI 1.7-3.1) respectively. War-associated increases in all-cause and cause-specific mortality were found across all age groups and both genders, but children aged 0-5 years had the largest relative increases in mortality. Conclusions Armed conflict, particularly war, is associated with a substantial indirect mortality impact among civilians
AU  - Jawad,M
AU  - Hone,T
AU  - Vamos,E
AU  - Roderick,P
AU  - Sullivan,R
AU  - Millett,C
DO  - 10.1186/s12916-020-01708-5
EP  - 11
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 1741-7015
SP  - 1
TI  - Estimating indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations: panel regression analyses of 193 countries, 1990-2017
T2  - BMC Medicine
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01708-5
UR  - https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-020-01708-5
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/81420
VL  - 266
ER  -
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