DrErikVolz

Zhang X, Zhong L, Romero-Severson E, Alam SJ, Henry CJ, Volz EM, Koopman JSet al., 2012, Episodic HIV Risk Behavior Can Greatly Amplify HIV Prevalence and the Fraction of Transmissions from Acute HIV Infection., Stat Commun Infect Dis, Vol: 4, ISSN: 2194-6310

A deterministic compartmental model was explored that relaxed the unrealistic assumption in most HIV transmission models that behaviors of individuals are constant over time. A simple model was formulated to better explain the effects observed. Individuals had a high and a low contact rate and went back and forth between them. This episodic risk behavior interacted with the short period of high transmissibility during acute HIV infection to cause dramatic increases in prevalence as the differences between high and low contact rates increased and as the duration of high risk better matched the duration of acute HIV infection. These same changes caused a considerable increase in the fraction of all transmissions that occurred during acute infection. These strong changes occurred despite a constant total number of contacts and a constant total transmission potential from acute infection. Two phenomena played a strong role in generating these effects. First, people were infected more often during their high contact rate phase and they remained with high contact rates during the highly contagious acute infection stage. Second, when individuals with previously low contact rates moved into an episodic high-risk period, they were more likely to be susceptible and thus provided more high contact rate susceptible individuals who could get infected. These phenomena make test and treat control strategies less effective and could cause some behavioral interventions to increase transmission. Signature effects on genetic patterns between HIV strains could make it possible to determine whether these episodic risk effects are acting in a population.

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Bauermeister JA, Zimmerman MA, Johns MM, Glowacki P, Stoddard S, Volz Eet al., 2012, Innovative Recruitment Using Online Networks: Lessons Learned From an Online Study of Alcohol and Other Drug Use Utilizing a Web-Based, Respondent-Driven Sampling (webRDS) Strategy, JOURNAL OF STUDIES ON ALCOHOL AND DRUGS, Vol: 73, Pages: 834-838, ISSN: 1937-1888

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• Citations: 111

Volz EM, Koopman JS, Ward MJ, Brown AL, Frost SDWet al., 2012, Simple Epidemiological Dynamics Explain Phylogenetic Clustering of HIV from Patients with Recent Infection, PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 8

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• Citations: 75

Miller JC, Slim AC, Volz EM, 2012, Edge-based compartmental modelling for infectious disease spread, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, Vol: 9, Pages: 890-906, ISSN: 1742-5689

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• Citations: 173

Volz EM, 2012, Complex Population Dynamics and the Coalescent Under Neutrality, GENETICS, Vol: 190, Pages: 187-U311, ISSN: 0016-6731

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• Citations: 87

Volz EM, Miller JC, Galvani A, Ancel Meyers Let al., 2011, Correction: Effects of Heterogeneous and Clustered Contact Patterns on Infectious Disease Dynamics, PLoS Computational Biology, Vol: 7

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Craft ME, Volz E, Packer C, Meyers LAet al., 2011, Disease transmission in territorial populations: the small-world network of Serengeti lions, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, Vol: 8, Pages: 776-786, ISSN: 1742-5689

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• Citations: 107

Volz EM, Miller JC, Galvani A, Meyers LAet al., 2011, Effects of Heterogeneous and Clustered Contact Patterns on Infectious Disease Dynamics, PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 7, ISSN: 1553-734X

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• Citations: 127

Volz E, Frost SDW, Rothenberg R, Meyers LAet al., 2010, Epidemiological bridging by injection drug use drives an early HIV epidemic, EPIDEMICS, Vol: 2, Pages: 155-164, ISSN: 1755-4365

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• Citations: 25

Frost SDW, Volz EM, 2010, Viral phylodynamics and the search for an 'effective number of infections', PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 365, Pages: 1879-1890, ISSN: 0962-8436

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• Citations: 101

Farber S, Paez A, Volz E, 2010, Topology, Dependency Tests and Estimation Bias in Network Autoregressive Models, PROGRESS IN SPATIAL ANALYSIS, Editors: Paez, LeGallo, Buliung, Dallerba, Publisher: SPRINGER-VERLAG BERLIN, Pages: 29-57, ISBN: 978-3-642-03324-7

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• Citations: 9

Volz EM, Pond SLK, Ward MJ, Brown AJL, Frost SDWet al., 2009, Phylodynamics of Infectious Disease Epidemics, GENETICS, Vol: 183, Pages: 1421-1430, ISSN: 0016-6731

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• Citations: 150

Craft ME, Volz E, Packer C, Meyers LAet al., 2009, Distinguishing epidemic waves from disease spillover in a wildlife population, PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 276, Pages: 1777-1785, ISSN: 0962-8452

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• Citations: 70

Farber S, Paez A, Volz E, 2009, Topology and Dependency Tests in Spatial and Network Autoregressive Models, GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS, Vol: 41, Pages: 158-180, ISSN: 0016-7363

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• Citations: 45

Volz E, Meyers LA, 2009, Epidemic thresholds in dynamic contact networks, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, Vol: 6, Pages: 233-241, ISSN: 1742-5689

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• Citations: 122

Abramovitz D, Volz EM, Strathdee SA, Patterson TL, Vera A, Frost SDWet al., 2009, Using Respondent Driven Sampling in a Hidden Population at Risk of HIV Infection: Who do HIV-positive recruiters recruit?, Sexually transmitted diseases, Vol: 36, Pages: 750-750

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Paez A, Scott DM, Volz E, 2008, A discrete-choice approach to modeling social influence on individual decision making, ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING B-PLANNING & DESIGN, Vol: 35, Pages: 1055-1069, ISSN: 0265-8135

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• Citations: 88

Paez A, Scott DM, Volz E, 2008, Weight matrices for social influence analysis: An investigation of measurement errors and their effect on model identification and estimation quality, SOCIAL NETWORKS, Vol: 30, Pages: 309-317, ISSN: 0378-8733

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• Citations: 37

Volz E, 2008, Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in populations with heterogeneous contact rates, EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL B, Vol: 63, Pages: 381-386, ISSN: 1434-6028

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• Citations: 10

Volz E, 2008, SIR dynamics in random networks with heterogeneous connectivity, JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 56, Pages: 293-310, ISSN: 0303-6812

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• Citations: 222

Volz E, Heckathorn DD, 2008, Probability Based Estimation Theory for Respondent Driven Sampling, JOURNAL OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS, Vol: 24, Pages: 79-97, ISSN: 0282-423X

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• Citations: 413

Volz E, Meyers LA, 2007, Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in dynamic contact networks, PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 274, Pages: 2925-2933, ISSN: 0962-8452

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• Citations: 179

Volz E, 2004, Random networks with tunable degree distribution and clustering, Physical Review E, Vol: 70, Pages: 056115-056115

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