Imperial College London
Alternate

DrErikVolz

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Reader in Population Biology of Infectious Diseases
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 1933e.volz Website

 
 
//

Location

 

UG10Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@techreport{Dorigatti:2020:10.25561/77154,
author = {Dorigatti, I and Okell, L and Cori, A and Imai, N and Baguelin, M and Bhatia, S and Boonyasiri, A and Cucunuba, Perez Z and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Fitzjohn, R and Fu, H and Gaythorpe, K and Hamlet, A and Hinsley, W and Hong, N and Kwun, M and Laydon, D and Nedjati, Gilani G and Riley, S and van, Elsland S and Volz, E and Wang, H and Walters, C and Xi, X and Donnelly, C and Ghani, A and Ferguson, N},
doi = {10.25561/77154},
title = {Report 4: Severity of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV)},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/77154},
year = {2020}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - RPRT
AB  - We present case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for three strata of 2019-nCoV infections. For cases detected in Hubei, we estimate the CFR to be 18% (95% credible interval: 11%-81%). For cases detected in travellers outside mainland China, we obtain central estimates of the CFR in the range 1.2-5.6% depending on the statistical methods, with substantial uncertainty around these central values. Using estimates of underlying infection prevalence in Wuhan at the end of January derived from testing of passengers on repatriation flights to Japan and Germany, we adjusted the estimates of CFR from either the early epidemic in Hubei Province, or from cases reported outside mainland China, to obtain estimates of the overall CFR in all infections (asymptomatic or symptomatic) of approximately 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%). It is important to note that the differences in these estimates does not reflect underlying differences in disease severity between countries. CFRs seen in individual countries will vary depending on the sensitivity of different surveillance systems to detect cases of differing levels of severity and the clinical care offered to severely ill cases. All CFR estimates should be viewed cautiously at the current time as the sensitivity of surveillance of both deaths and cases in mainland China is unclear. Furthermore, all estimates rely on limited data on the typical time intervals from symptom onset to death or recovery which influences the CFR estimates.
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Okell,L
AU  - Cori,A
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Cucunuba,Perez Z
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Fitzjohn,R
AU  - Fu,H
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Hamlet,A
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Hong,N
AU  - Kwun,M
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Nedjati,Gilani G
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Volz,E
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Walters,C
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Ferguson,N
DO  - 10.25561/77154
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Report 4: Severity of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV)
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/77154
UR  - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-02-10-COVID19-Report-4.pdf
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/77154
ER  -
Download