199 results found
Laverty AA, Millett C, Been JV, et al., 2022, A healthy future for children and adolescents, LANCET, Vol: 400, Pages: 1100-1100, ISSN: 0140-6736
Kyriakos C, Qi D, Chang CM, et al., 2022, Global market trends of flavour capsule and menthol cigarettes: An ecological analysis using commercial data across 78 countries, 2010-2020, Tobacco Induced Diseases, Vol: 20, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 1617-9625
Introduction: This study describes market trends of flavour capsule cigarettes (FCCs) and menthol (non-capsule) cigarettes across 78 countries from 2010 to 2020 and examines country-level factors associated with market shares of these products.Methods: Market share and retail volume data came from the Euromonitor Passport database and country-level data came from the World Health Organization (WHO), World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. Multivariable linear fixed effects panel regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the relationship between predictor variables and market share of menthol and FCC, respectively.Results: The overall market share (i.e., the percentage retail volume out of total retail volume of all cigarette types) increased from 0.23% in 2010 to 4.5% in 2020 for FCCs and decreased from 5.0% to 3.8% for menthol cigarettes. Market shares of FCCs grew most rapidly in the Americas region and among upper-middle-income countries. Market shares of menthol cigarettes remained stable across most regions and were highest in the Western Pacific and Africa regions. The overall market share of FCCs was positively associated with unemployment rate (β=0.28, 95%CI: 0.12 to 0.44, p=0.001), and inversely associated with % of the population aged 15-29 (β=-0.57, 95%CI: -0.98 to -0.15, p=0.008), % of urban population (β=-0.88, 95%CI: -1.28 to -0.48, p<0.001), GDP PPP per capita (β=-0.13, 95%CI: -0.24 to -0.03, p=0.015), and age-standardised prevalence of cigarette smoking (β=-0.93, -1.38 to -0.49, p<0.001). In contrast, the overall market share of menthol was positively associated with urbanicity (β=0.24, 95%CI: 0.08 to 0.40, p=0.003), and negatively associated with unemployment rate (β=-0.09, 95%CI: -0.17 to -0.02, p=0.014).Conclusions: Global sales of FCCs grew substantially in the last decade, surpassing menthol (non-capsule) cigarettes, which also continued to be high in many regions. There is a need for increased
Vrinten C, Parnham J, Hopkinson N, et al., 2022, Risk factors for adolescent smoking uptake – analysis of prospective data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study, Tobacco Induced Diseases, Vol: 20, Pages: 1-6, ISSN: 1617-9625
Introduction:Most people who smoke initiate smoking in adolescence. Risk factors for smoking are changing over time as demographics shift, and technologies such as social media create new avenues for the tobacco industry to recruit smokers. We assessed risk factors associated with smoking uptake and regular smoking among a representative cohort of UK adolescents.Methods:Data come from 8944 children followed prospectively as part of the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Smoking uptake was assessed as adolescents who had never smoked tobacco at the age of 14 years, but reported smoking ≥1 cigarette per week by the age of 17 years (regular smoking). We used logistic regression to assess associations between smoking uptake and selected sociodemographic factors including household income, caregiver smoking, peer smoking, and social media use. Weighted percentages and Office for National Statistics Data were used to estimate numbers of regular smokers and new smokers in the UK.Results:Among the whole sample, 10.6% of adolescents were regular smokers at the age of 17 years. Of these, 52% initiated smoking between the ages of 14 and 17 years. Uptake was more common if caregivers smoked (13.6% vs 5.0%, p<0.001) or friends smoked (12.6% vs 4.3%, p<0.001), and among those reporting >5 hours/ day of social media use (9.8% vs 4.1%, p=0.006). Applying these percentages to population data, an estimated 160000 adolescents in the UK were regular smokers by the age of 17 years, of whom more than 100000 initiated smoking between the ages of 14 and 17 years.Conclusions:This analysis of smoking uptake and regular smoking highlight that smoking behavior remains highly transmissible within families and peer groups, reinforcing inequalities. Social media are highlighted as a potential vector.
Kyriakos C, Driezen P, Fong GT, et al., 2022, The impact of the European Union’s menthol cigarette ban on smoking cessation outcomes: Longitudinal findings from the 2020-2021 ITC Netherlands Surveys, Tobacco Control, ISSN: 0964-4563
Introduction: To reduce the appeal of tobacco, the European Union (EU) banned menthol as a characterising flavour in cigarettes in May 2020. This pre-post study evaluated the impact of the menthol ban on smoking cessation outcomes among a representative cohort of Dutch smokers. Methods: Adult (18+ years) smokers were recruited at Wave 1 (pre-ban) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Surveys (February-March 2020) and followed post-ban at Wave 2 (September-November 2020) and Wave 3 (June-July 2021) (N=1,326, participated in all three waves). Weighted bivariate, logistic regression, and generalised estimating equation model analyses were conducted.Results: Usual menthol use decreased from pre-ban (7.8%) to post-ban (4.0% at Wave 2 and 4.4% at Wave 3) (p<0.001). Pre-ban menthol smokers had greater odds of making a post-ban quit attempt than non-menthol smokers (66.9% vs 49.6%, aOR=1.89, 95%CI: 1.13-3.16). Compared to pre-ban non-menthol smokers, a higher proportion of menthol smokers quit by Wave 2 (17.8% vs 10.2%, p=0.025) and by Wave 3 (26.1% vs 14.1%, p=0.002), although this was not significant after adjusting for other factors. Female pre-ban menthol smokers had greater odds of quitting by Wave 3 than female non-menthol smokers (aOR=2.23, 95%CI: 1.10-4.51). Most pre-ban menthol smokers (n=99) switched to non-menthol cigarettes (40.0%) or reported that they continued to smoke menthol cigarettes (33.0%) at Wave 3. Conclusions: The EU menthol ban was effective in reducing menthol use and in increasing quit attempts and quitting among pre-ban menthol smokers. Impact could be maximised by closing gaps that allow post-ban menthol cigarette use.
Dallera G, Palladino R, Filippidis FT, 2022, Corruption in health care systems: trends in informal payments across twenty eight EU countries, 2013-2019, Health Affairs, Vol: 41, Pages: 1342-1352, ISSN: 0278-2715
Corruption is a major challenge in health care systems across the European Union (EU), where it manifests most visibly as informal payments from patients to providers. A higher prevalence of informal payments has been associated with lower public health care expenditure. EU member states have experienced significant changes in public health care expenditure throughout the 2000s. Given the lack of research on the topic, we explored trends in informal payments using representative data from twenty-eight EU member states during the period 2013-19 and in relation to changes in public health care expenditure. Overall, we found that informal payments increased in 2019 compared with 2013, whereas the perception of corruption decreased. Although higher public health care expenditure was associated with less corruption, we found a smaller effect size between informal payments and this expenditure throughout the study period. Our results suggest that informal payments may be driven by other factors, although the directionality of this relationship requires further investigation. Moreover, additional public health care investments may be insufficient to confront corruption unless coupled with measures to limit wasteful spending and increase transparency. Policy makers should understand that factors external to health systems, including media coverage and cultural and political factors, should be explored to explain country-level differences in corruption.
Radó MK, van Lenthe FJ, Laverty AA, et al., 2022, Effect of comprehensive smoke-free legislation on neonatal mortality and infant mortality across 106 middle-income countries: a synthetic control study, The Lancet Public Health, Vol: 7, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 2468-2667
BackgroundThere are few quantitative studies into the effect of comprehensive smoke-free legislation on neonatal and infant mortality in middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate the effects of implementing comprehensive smoke-free legislation on neonatal mortality and infant mortality across all middle-income countries.MethodsWe applied the synthetic control method using 1990–2018 country-level panel data for 106 middle-income countries from the WHO, World Bank, and Penn World datasets. Outcome variables were neonatal (age 0–28 days) mortality and infant (age 0–12 months) mortality rates per 1000 livebirths per year. For each middle-income country with comprehensive smoke-free legislation, a synthetic control country was constructed from middle-income countries without comprehensive smoke-free legislation, but with similar prelegislation trends in the outcome and predictor variables. Overall legislation effect was the mean average of country-specific effects weighted by the number of livebirths. We compared the distribution of the legislation effects with that of the placebo effects to assess the likelihood that the observed effect was related to the implementation of smoke-free legislation and not merely influenced by other processes.Findings31 (29%) of 106 middle-income countries introduced comprehensive smoke-free legislation and had outcome data for at least 3 years after the intervention. We were able to construct a synthetic control country for 18 countries for neonatal mortality and for 15 countries for infant mortality. Comprehensive smoke-free legislation was followed by a mean yearly decrease of 1·63% in neonatal mortality and a mean yearly decrease of 1·33% in infant mortality. An estimated 12 392 neonatal deaths in 18 countries and 8932 infant deaths in 15 countries were avoided over 3 years following the implementation of comprehensive smoke-free legislation. We estimated that an additional 104 063 infant deaths (inc
Foster PJI, Laverty AA, Filippidis FT, 2022, Perceptions of the safety of vaccines and vaccine associated knowledge levels in Europe: A 2019 cross-sectional study in 28 countries, Preventive Medicine, Vol: 159, ISSN: 0091-7435
Vaccination has saved millions of lives. Vaccine hesitancy was recently declared a major threat to health by the World Health Organisation. Sociodemographic variables and knowledge level about vaccines have been suggested previously to affect vaccine uptake. This study aimed to investigate how levels of vaccination knowledge and concerns around safety of vaccines varied across sociodemographic factors in the European Union and United Kingdom. Levels and sources of knowledge and vaccine attitude patterns were examined across different areas of Europe. Data from the March 2019 Eurobarometer survey was used in this study which had 27,524 participants across the European Union and the United Kingdom. Two-level logistic and linear regressions were used to look for associations between sociodemographic variables, vaccine attitudes and knowledge level. Those who trusted information from healthcare workers and healthcare authorities were most likely to have positive vaccine attitudes; those trusting internet sources the most were the least likely. Those with greater vaccine related knowledge were more likely to report positive vaccination attitudes. Healthcare workers are key to dissemination of vaccination advice however many are becoming hesitant themselves. An increasing number of people are seeking online sources for vaccination information, and this has implications with information accuracy and vaccine hesitancy. A considerable proportion of the adult population in the European Union and the United Kingdom was concerned about the safety or side effects of vaccines. Continued efforts to increase trust in vaccines both in whole populations and specific groups are needed.
El Asmar M, Laverty A, Vardavas C, et al., 2022, How do Europeans quit using tobacco, e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products? A cross-sectional analysis in 28 European countries, BMJ Open, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2044-6055
Objectives: While smoking tobacco remains a substantial cause of harm in Europe, novel products such as electronic cigarettes or e-cigarettes (ECs) and heated tobacco products (HTPs) have entered the market recently. While debate still persists over the role of these novel products, they are now in widespread use. This study aimed to explore the prevalence and methods of attempts to quit EC and HTP.Setting: We analysed the 2020 Eurobarometer survey, which collected data in 28 European countries.Participants: A representative sample of individuals residing in these countries aged ≥15 years.Primary and secondary: outcome measures Multilevel regression analyses were performed to assess differences in quit attempts and cessation methods among tobacco smokers and exclusive EC/HTP users separately.Results: 51.1% of current tobacco smokers and 27.1% of exclusive EC or HTP users reported having ever made a quit attempt. The majority of former and current smokers (75.8%) who made a quit attempt did so unassisted, with 28.8% reporting at least one attempt using a cessation aid. The most popular cessation aids were nicotine replacement therapy or other medication (13.4%) and ECs (11.3%). 58.8% of exclusive EC or HTP users who had made a quit attempt did so unassisted, with 39.5% reporting the use of a cessation aid.Conclusion: Most EC and HTP users in Europe try to quit unassisted, although more of them report the use of a cessation aid compared with tobacco smokers. Cessation support services should take into consideration the increasing numbers of users of EC and HTP who may be trying to quit.
Teshima A, Filippidis F, Laverty A, 2022, Burden of current and past smoking across 28 European countries in 2017: A cross-sectional analysis, Tobacco Induced Diseases, Vol: 20, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 1617-9625
IntroductionMost studies use the prevalence of current smoking as an indicator to quantify the burden of smoking.However, length and intensity of smoking, as well as time since cessation for former smokers are alsoknown to impact smoking-related health risks. The aim of this study was to quantify and compare theburden of smoking across the European Union (EU) using a range of smoking burden indicators.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from the March 2017 Eurobarometer 87.1(n=27,901 aged ≥15 years in 28 Member States [MS]) and the Tobacco Control Scale. We defined fiveindicators of smoking burden including the prevalence of current and ever smoking, length of smoking,pack-years, and discounted pack-years and ranked EU MS by each indicator. Two-level linear andlogistic regressions were performed to assess the association between these indicators and sociodemographic and tobacco policy factors.ResultsWide variations across the EU countries were observed in all smoking burden indicators. While someMS ranked consistently high (e.g. Greece, France) or consistently low (e.g. Ireland, United Kingdom)in all indicators, we found substantial discrepancies in ranking depending on the indicator used for MSsuch as Malta, Denmark, Finland and the Netherlands. All indicators of smoking burden were loweramong women and respondents without financial difficulties; however, the magnitude of thoseinequalities varied two-fold among the different indicators.ConclusionsUsing a range of smoking burden indicators can be more informative than relying on prevalence alone.Our analysis highlights the limitations of relying solely on prevalence of current smoking to estimatethe burden of smoking and the potential value of more nuanced indicators. We recommend thatmultiple and more nuanced indicators that consider former smokers, intensity and duration of smokingshould be utilised to monitor tobacco use and evaluate tobacco control policies.
Radó MK, Laverty AA, Hone T, et al., 2022, Cigarette taxation and neonatal and infant mortality: a longitudinal analysis of 159 countries, PLOS Global Public Health, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2767-3375
Previous studies on the associations between cigarette taxes and infant survival have all been in high-income countries and did not examine the relative benefits of different taxation levels and structures. We evaluated longitudinal associations of cigarette taxes with neonatal and infant mortality globally. We applied country-level panel regressions using 2008–2018 annual mortality and biennial WHO tobacco taxation data. Complete data was available for 159 countries. Outcomes were neonatal and infant mortality. We conducted analyses by type of taxes (i.e. specific cigarette taxes, ad valorem taxes, and other taxes, import duties and VAT) and the income group classification of countries. Covariates included scores for other WHO recommended tobacco control policies, socioeconomic, health-care, and air quality measures. Secondary analyses investigated the associations between cigarette tax and cigarette consumption. We found that a 10 percentage-point increase in total cigarette tax as a percentage of the retail price was associated with a 2.6% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.9% to 3.2%) decrease in neonatal mortality and a 1.9% (95% CI: 1.3% to 2.6%) decrease in infant mortality globally. Estimates were similar for both excise and ad valorem taxes. We estimated that 231,220 (95% CI: 152,658 to 307,655) infant deaths could have been averted in 2018 if all countries had total cigarette tax at least 75%. 99.2% of these averted deaths would have been in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The secondary analysis supported causal interpretation of results by finding that a 10 percentage-point increase in taxes was associated with a reduction of 94.6 (95% CI: 32.7 to 156.5) in annual cigarette consumption per capita. Although causal inference is precarious due to the quasi-experimental design, we used a robust analytical approach and focused on within-country changes. Limitations include an inability to include data on roll-your-own tobacco, other forms of toba
Maani N, van Schalkwyk MCI, Filippidis FT, et al., 2022, Manufacturing doubt: assessing the effects of independent vs industry-sponsored messaging about the harms of fossil fuels, smoking, alcohol, and sugar sweetened beverages, SSM Popul Health, Vol: 17, ISSN: 2352-8273
Background Manufacturers of harmful products engage in misinformation tactics long employed by the tobacco industry to emphasize uncertainty about scientific evidence and deflect negative attention from their products. This study assessed the effects of one type of tactic, the use of "alternative causation" arguments, on public understanding. Methods In five trials (one for each industry) anonymized Qualtrics panel respondents were randomized to receive a message on the risk in question from one of four industry sponsored organizations (exposure), or from one of four independent organizations (control), on risks related to alcohol, tobacco, fossil fuel and sugar sweetened beverages. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the effect of industry arguments about uncertainty on the primary outcome of public certainty about product risk, adjusting for age, gender and education. The results from all five trials were pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis. Findings In total, n=3284 respondents were exposed to industry-sponsored messaging about product-related risks, compared to n=3297 exposed to non-industry messages. Across all industries, exposure to industry-sponsored messages led to greater reported uncertainty or false certainty about risk, compared to non-industry messages [Summary odds ratio (OR) 1·60, confidence interval (CI) 1·28-1·99]. The effect was greater among those who self-rated as not/slightly knowledgeable (OR 2·24, CI 1·61-3·12), or moderately knowledgeable (OR 1·85, CI 1·38-2·48) compared to those very/extremely knowledgeable (OR 1·28, CI 1·03-1·60). Conclusions This study demonstrates that exposure to industry sponsored messages which appear intended to downplay risk significantly increases uncertainty or false certainty, with the effect being greater in less knowledgeable participants.
D'Anna L, Filippidis F, Harvey K, et al., 2022, Ischemic Stroke in orally anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation, Acta Neurologica Scandinavica, Vol: 145, Pages: 288-296, ISSN: 0001-6314
BackgroundIschemic strokes in orally anticoagulated patients pose challenges for acute management and secondary prevention but the characteristics of these strokes are poorly understood. We examined the clinical and imaging features, the presumed underlying etiology and the subsequent antithrombotic management.MethodsWe analyzed a consecutive series of patients enrolled into the EIDASAF study, a single center, observational study of ischemic stroke patients with a diagnosis atrial fibrillation (AF) prior to the index event who had been admitted to the Hyperacute Stroke Unit of Imperial College London between 2010 and 2017. We compared patients with oral anticoagulation therapy prior admission (OACprior) with those without anticoagulation (OACnaive). Brain imaging was analyzed centrally.Results763 patients were included in the analysis. 481 (63%) were OACnaive while 282 (37%) were OACprior. Patients with OACprior were younger, more often had a previous history of stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), and more often suffered from hypertension and diabetes. In OACnaive, patients, large and deep middle cerebral artery infarcts occurred more often than in OACprior patients. The groups differed significantly in the distribution of competing etiologies underlying their stroke. At discharge, OACprior more frequently were (re)-anticoagulated compared to OACnaive patients. Within the OACprior group, patients with recurrent strokes did not differ from those with a first stroke regarding clinical characteristics and pattern of cerebral infarction but they were less frequently anticoagulated.ConclusionsIschemic strokes on OAC represent a significant proportion of AF-related strokes. There is an unmet need to better understand the causes underlying these strokes and to optimize the medical management.
Taravira NA, Laurence L, Filippidis FT, 2022, Beware big tobacco bearing gifts: tobacco industry corporate social responsibility activities in Greece, Tobacco Control, ISSN: 0964-4563
Kyriakos CN, Zatonski MZ, Filippidis FT, 2022, Marketing of flavour capsule cigarettes: a systematic review, TOBACCO CONTROL, ISSN: 0964-4563
KC S, Filippidis FT, Laverty AA, 2022, Legislative provisions for standardised tobacco packaging and changes in public support in 27 European countries, Tobacco Control, ISSN: 0964-4563
Background Global adoption of standardised packaging requirements for tobacco products is a victory for public health, but their proliferation and impacts rely partly on public support. How this is related to legislation remains underassessed. This study explored change over time in public support for standardised packaging in countries with varying degrees of legislative provisions.Methods We used data from 27 European countries, collected from 2017 (n=28, 300) and 2020 (n=27, 901) waves of the Eurobarometer survey, to assess self-reported support for standardised packaging regulations among both smokers and non-smokers. Countries were grouped into three categories of policy adoption (policy implemented; policy legislated; no legislation) and changes in support were assessed using multilevel Poisson regression models.Results In 2020, public support for standardised packaging was 71% (95% CI 68% to 74%) in countries that implemented standardised packaging legislation, 57% (55% to 60%) in countries that had legislated but not yet implemented legislation and 41% (40%to 42%) in countries with no legislation. Compared with 2017, this represented a relative change of +8% (1% to 15%), +12% (5% to 21%) and −5% (95% CI −2% to −8%), respectively, in the three country categories. Among smokers, there was no indication of change in support across the three groups. Among non-smokers, support increased in countries with existing legislation (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]=1.14, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.23) and decreased in countries with no legislation (aPR=0.93, 0.90 to 0.97).Conclusions Public support for standardised packaging regulations increased in countries implementing and legislating for these measures, particularly among non-smokers. An overall increase in support provides reassurance for policymakers defending policy action on tobacco packaging, as well as for those seeking to implement standardised packaging in their own countri
Donnat C, Bunbury F, Liu D, et al., 2021, Predicting COVID-19 transmission to inform the management of mass events: a model-based approach, JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2369-2960
Background:Modelling COVID-19 transmission at live events and public gatherings is essential to control the probability of subsequent outbreaks and communicate to participants their personalised risk. Yet, despite the fast-growing body of literature on COVID transmission dynamics, current risk models either neglect contextual information on vaccination rates or disease prevalence or do not attempt to quantitatively model transmission.Objective:This paper attempts to bridge this gap by providing informative risk metrics for live public events, along with a measure of their uncertainty.Methods:Building upon existing models, our approach ties together three main components: (a) reliable modelling of the number of infectious cases at the time of the event, (b) evaluation of the efficiency of pre-event screening, and (c) modelling of the event’s transmission dynamics and their uncertainty along using Monte Carlo simulations.Results:We illustrate the application of our pipeline for a concert at the Royal Albert Hall and highlight the risk’s dependency on factors such as prevalence, mask wearing, or event duration. We demonstrate how this event held on three different dates (August 20th 2020, January 20th 2021, and March 20th 2021) would likely lead to transmission events that are similar to community transmission rates (0.06 vs 0.07, 2.38 vs 2.39, and 0.67 vs 0.60, respectively). However, differences between event and background transmissions substantially widen in the upper tails of the distribution of number of infections (as denoted by their respective 99th quantiles: 1 vs 1, 19 vs 8, and 6 vs 3 for our three dates), further demonstrating that sole reliance on vaccination and antigen testing to gain entry would likely significantly underestimate the tail risk of the event.Conclusions:Despite the unknowns surrounding COVID-19 transmission, our estimation pipeline opens the discussion on contextualized risk assessment by combining the best tools at hand to as
Gallus S, Lugo A, Stival C, et al., 2021, Electronic cigarette use in 12 European countries. Results from the TackSHS survey., Journal of Epidemiology, ISSN: 0917-5040
BACKGROUND: Limited data on electronic cigarette prevalence, patterns and settings of use are available from several European countries. METHODS: Within the TackSHS project, a face-to-face survey was conducted in 2017-2018 in 12 European countries (Bulgaria, England, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania and Spain). Overall, 11,876 participants, representative of the population aged ≥15 years in each country, provided information on electronic cigarette. RESULTS: 2.4% (95% confidence interval, CI: 2.2-2.7) of the subjects (2.5% among men and 2.4% among women; 0.4% among never, 4.4% among current- and 6.5% among ex-smokers) reported current use of electronic cigarette, ranging from 0.6% in Spain to 7.2% in England. Of the 272 electronic cigarette users, 52.6% were dual users (i.e., users of both electronic and conventional cigarettes) and 58.8% used liquids with nicotine. In all, 65.1% reported using electronic cigarette in at least one indoor setting where smoking is forbidden, in particular in workplaces (34.9%), and bars and restaurants (41.5%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that electronic cigarette use was lower among older individuals (p for trend <0.001) and higher among individuals with high level of education (p for trend 0.040). Participants from countries with higher tobacco cigarette prices more frequently reported electronic cigarette use (odds ratio 3.62; 95% CI: 1.80-7.30). CONCLUSIONS: Considering the whole adult population of these 12 European countries, more than 8.3 million people use electronic cigarettes. The majority of users also smoked conventional cigarettes, used electronic cigarettes with nicotine and consumed electronic cigarettes in smoke-free indoor areas.
Harris M, Kreindler J, Donnat C, et al., 2021, Rapid response to BMJ: Are vaccine passports and covid passes a valid alternative to lockdown?, BMJ: British Medical Journal, Vol: 375, ISSN: 0959-535X
Laverty AA, Li CR, Chang KC-M, et al., 2021, Cigarette taxation and price differentials in 195 countries during 2014-2018, Tobacco Control, ISSN: 0964-4563
INTRODUCTION: Raising tobacco prices via increased taxation may be undermined by tobacco industry tactics to keep budget cigarettes on the market. Price differentials between budget and premium cigarettes allow smokers to trade down in the face of average price rises thus attenuating health benefits. This study examines global trends of price differentials and associations with taxation. METHODS: Ecological analysis of country-level panel data of 195 countries' price differentials was performed and compared against total, specific excise, ad valorem and other taxation. Price differentials were expressed as the difference between budget cigarette and premium pack prices (as % of premium pack prices). Two-level linear regression models with repeated measurements (2014, 2016 and 2018) nested within each country assessed the association between country-level taxation structures and price differentials, adjusted for year, geographical region and income group. RESULTS: Worldwide, median price differential between budget and premium 20-cigarette packs was 49.4% (IQR 25.9%-70.0%) in 2014 and 44.4% (IQR 22.5%-69.4%) in 2018 with significant regional variation. The largest price differentials in 2018 were in Africa, with the lowest in Europe. Total taxation was negatively associated with price differentials (-1.5%, 95% CI -2.5% to -0.4% per +10% total taxation) as was specific excise taxation (-2.5%, 95% CI -3.7% to -1.2% per +10% specific excise tax). We found no statistically significant association between ad valorem taxation and price differentials. CONCLUSION: Total levels of taxation and specific excise taxes were associated with smaller price differentials. Implementing high specific excise taxes may reduce price differentials and improve health outcomes.
Kyriakos C, Ahmad A, Chang K, et al., 2021, Price differentials of tobacco products: A cross-sectional analysis of 79 countries, Tobacco Induced Diseases, Vol: 19, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 1617-9625
Introduction:Increased taxation is one of the most effective tobacco control measures. Price differentials across tobacco product types may undermine the effectiveness of taxation policies by providing the option to switch to cheaper products rather than to quit. The aim of this study was to use commercial data to compare prices and price differentials of both cigarette and non-cigarette products across countries from all geographical regions.Methods:We analyzed 6920 price data points (i.e. product brands) from Euromonitor Passport 2016 for 12 types of tobacco products across 79 countries from the six WHO regions: Africa (n=5), Eastern Mediterranean (n=6), Europe (n=39), the Americas (n=15), South-East Asia (n=3), and Western Pacific (n=12). For each product and country, a price differential was computed as the percentage of minimum price to the median.Results:Median cigarette prices (US$) were highest in Western Pacific countries (4.00; range: 0.80–16.20) and European countries (3.80; range: 0.80–14.00), but lowest in African countries (2.00; range: 0.80–2.20). The medians of cigarette price differentials were largest in the Eastern Mediterranean (48.33%) and African regions (50.00%), but smallest in Europe (82.35%). Pipe tobacco and fine-cut tobacco were generally less expensive than cigarettes while cigars were the most expensive. However, there were wide variations in prices and price differentials across regions and tobacco products.Conclusions:We found substantial variations in prices and price differentials between countries and world regions across tobacco products, likely reflecting differences in taxation policies and structures. Findings identify types of tobacco products in specific geographical regions where price differentials are highest, thereby highlighting areas where taxation policies need improvement, for example through implementing specific excise taxes.
Chang C-M, Mayne E, Laverty A, et al., 2021, Cigarette prices in eight sub-Saharan African countries in 2018: a cross-sectional analysis, BMJ Open, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2044-6055
Objective: While the trend in smoking prevalence is decreasing worldwide, the number of male tobacco smokers is growing in Africa. This study compares the cigarette market in eight sub-Saharan African countries. This includes examining cigarette prices, pricing differentials, pack sizes and affordability at national and subnational levels.Design and setting: A cross-sectional data analysis using data from the Data on Alcohol and Tobacco in Africa (DATA) Project. The DATA Project was centrally coordinated by project supervisors following a standardised protocol. University students were recruited to conduct data collection and a total of 22 347 retail cigarette price data points collected between June and August 2018 were analysed (including Botswana, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe). Prices were converted to US$ and standardised to the price of a 20-cigarette pack.Results: This research found large price differentials within provinces/states, with the gap between medium and minimum prices per 20-cigarette pack exceeding 50% of the medium price in 18 out of 24 provinces/states. Single cigarettes were widely available, especially in Lesotho and Ethiopia. Results of multivariable regression suggest prices (per 20-cigarette pack) were lower for cigarettes sold in packs than single sticks (−US$0.27, 95% CI: −US$0.39 to −US$0.23) and lower in less populated areas (−US$0.28 in rural compared with urban settings, 95% CI: −US$0.41 to −US$0.15). Availability of cheaper single cigarettes (lower per unit price than packed cigarettes) were identified for Lesotho and South Africa.Conclusions: These findings identify a varied picture in cigarette pricing in studied countries and suggest measures to tackle pricing differentials and availability of single sticks are warranted. These measures should counteract the potential health consequences of the increasing penetration of tobacco indus
Kyriakos CN, Zatonski MZ, Filippidis FT, 2021, Flavour capsule cigarette use and perceptions: a systematic review, Tobacco Control, ISSN: 0964-4563
Objective This systematic review on flavour capsule cigarettes aims to examine prevalence, correlates of use, behaviours and perceptions of these products globally.Data sources A search of original, peer-reviewed research without restrictions in publication year, population, study design or language, using a combination of cigarette and capsule terms was conducted across four databases (Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Scopus), indexed until 30 April 2021.Study selection Studies were included if they presented original, human subjects research on flavour capsule cigarettes.Data extraction Two authors independently extracted data on main outcome results and assessed risk of bias using a validated quality assessment tool (QATSDD).Data synthesis Of 842 unduplicated database records and four studies from citation searching screened, 20 studies were included in the review. Studies reported data from 2009 to 2019 across eight countries, the majority of which used cross-sectional or focus group study designs. Current capsule use among smokers was highest in Chile and Mexico (40%) and was associated with younger age, and in some countries, with being female. Capsule cigarettes are perceived as tasting better, being smoother on the throat, more fun to smoke, and more attractive compared with non-capsule cigarettes, particularly among susceptible non-smokers and non-daily smokers.Conclusion Findings call for the adoption of comprehensive tobacco control policies that account for flavour capsules and similar iterations, which can increase appeal through flavours and innovative features. Continued monitoring and research of these products is critical, with particular attention to low-income and middle-income countries, which make up a disproportionately larger share of the capsule market.
Williams L, Marongiu A, Filippidis F, et al., 2021, Analyses of patient reported outcomes for appropriately tailoring to the needs of HIV-1 patient focus groups, Publisher: WILEY, Pages: 104-105, ISSN: 1464-2662
Laverty AA, Filippidis FT, Been JV, et al., 2021, Smoke-free vehicles – impact of legislation on child smoke exposure across three countries, European Respiratory Journal, Vol: 58, Pages: 1-3, ISSN: 0903-1936
Harris M, Donnat C, Bunbury F, et al., 2021, Predicting COVID-19 Transmission to Inform the Management of Mass Events: a model-based approach, Journal of Medical Internet Research, ISSN: 1438-8871
Maani N, Schalkwyk MC, Filippidis F, et al., 2021, MERCHANTS OF DOUBT: A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL OF RESPONSES TO INDEPENDENT VS INDUSTRY-FUNDED MESSAGING ON THE HARMS OF ALCOHOL, CLIMATE CHANGE, TOBACCO AND SUGAR SWEETENED BEVERAGES, Publisher: BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, Pages: A33-A33, ISSN: 0143-005X
Laverty AA, Vardavas CI, Filippidis FT, 2021, Prevalence and reasons for use of Heated Tobacco Products (HTP) in Europe: an analysis of Eurobarometer data in 28 countries, The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Vol: 8, Pages: 1-7, ISSN: 2666-7762
BackgroundHeated Tobacco Products (HTP) are a relatively new class of tobacco products, with limited data on usage patterns. We assessed the prevalence and reasons for use among persons aged ≥15 years in 27 European Union member states and the United Kingdom·MethodsThe 2020 Eurobarometer (93·2) survey was analysed (n=28,300, aged ≥15). Multi-level regression analyses assessed socio-demographic differences in use while separate analyses investigated reasons for starting to use HTP. Results are presented as adjusted Odds Ratios (aOR) and weighted percentages with 95% Confidence Intervals (95%CI).FindingsOverall, 6·5% (95% CI 6·1;7·0) of participants had ever used a HTP. 1·3% (1·1%;1·5%) of participants were current users of HTP, and 0·7% (0·6% to 0·9%) daily users. Current and former tobacco smokers were more likely than never tobacco smokers to use HTP (aOR 36·3 (22·9;57·5), and 7·3 (4·3;12·3) respectively. Youth aged 15-24 years of age were substantially more likely to report use, e.g. aOR for ever use=7·77 (6·56;9·21) compared to those aged ≥55 years. 51·3% of ever HTP users reported at least weekly concurrent use of combustible tobacco. Among those who reported ever use of HTP, but not e-cigarettes, the most popular reason for use was the perception that HTP are less harmful than smoking tobacco (39·5%), followed by use by friends (28·4%) and stopping or reducing smoking (28·2%).InterpretationConsiderable numbers of people in the EU have ever used HTP, although current and daily use remains low. Current use is more common among younger people, and current and former smokers.FundingNone
D'Anna L, Filippidis FT, Harvey K, et al., 2021, Extent of white matter lesion is associated with early hemorrhagic transformation in acute ischemic stroke related to atrial fibrillation, Brain and Behavior, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 2162-3279
BackgroundHemorrhagic transformation (HT) after stroke, related to atrial fibrillation (AF), is a frequent complication, and it can be associated with a delay in the (re-)initiation of oral anticoagulation therapy. We investigated the effect of the presence and severity of white matter disease (WMD) on early HT after stroke related to AF.MethodsA consecutive series of patients with recent (<4 weeks) ischemic stroke and AF, treated at the Hyper Acute Stroke Unit of the Imperial College London between 2010 and 2017, were enrolled. Patients with brain MRI performed 24–72 h from stroke onset and not yet started on anticoagulant treatment were included. WMD was graded using the Fazekas score.ResultsAmong the 441 patients eligible for the analysis, 91 (20.6%) had any HT. Patients with and without HT showed similar clinical characteristics. Patients with HT had a larger diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) infarct volume compared to patients without HT (p < .001) and significant difference in the distribution of the Fazekas score (p = .001). On multivariable analysis, HT was independently associated with increasing DWI infarct volume (odd ratio (OR), 1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01–1.05; p < .001), higher Fazekas scores (OR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.47–2.57; p < .001) and history of previous intracranial hemorrhage (OR, 4.80; 95% CI, 1.11–20.80; p = .036).ConclusionsPresence and severity of WMD is associated with increased risk of development of early HT in patients with stroke and AF. Further evidence is needed to provide reliable radiological predictors of the risk of HT in cardioembolic stroke.
Kendrick PJ, Reitsma MB, Abbasi-Kangevari M, et al., 2021, Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Public Health, Vol: 6, Pages: e482-e499, ISSN: 2468-2667
BackgroundChewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.MethodsWe estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.FindingsIn 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15–19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: –1·21% [–1·26 to –1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant
Reitsma MB, Kendrick PJ, Ababneh E, et al., 2021, Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 397, Pages: 2337-2360, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundEnding the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.MethodsWe estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.FindingsGlobally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13–1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11–7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5–28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4–39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98–1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16–8·20) deaths and 200 million (185–214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3–21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.Int
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