Imperial College London
Gina E C Charnley

Gina E C Charnley

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Honorary Research Associate
 
 
 
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Contact

 

g.charnley19 Website

 
 
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Location

 

UG13Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@unpublished{Charnley:2021:10.1101/2021.07.16.21260629,
author = {Charnley, GEC and Kelman, I and Green, N and Gaythorpe, KAM and Murray, KA and Hinsley, W},
doi = {10.1101/2021.07.16.21260629},
publisher = {Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory},
title = {Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.16.21260629},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - UNPB
AB  - Background Temperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought.Methods Here, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population growth.Results The best-fit model implies that drought is a significant risk factor for African cholera outbreaks, alongside positive effects of population, temperature and poverty and a negative effect of freshwater withdrawal. The projections show that following stringent emissions pathways and expanding sustainable development may reduce cholera outbreak occurrence in Africa, although these changes were spatially heterogeneous.Conclusions Despite an effect of drought in explaining recent cholera outbreaks, future projections highlighted the potential for sustainable development gains to offset drought-related impacts on cholera risk. Future work should build on this research investigating the impacts of drought on cholera on a finer spatial scale and potential non-linear relationships, especially in high-burden countries which saw little cholera change in the scenario analysis.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThis work was supported by the Natural Environmental Research Council [NE/S007415] as part of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environments (Imperial College London) Science and Solutions for a Changing Planet Doctoral Training Partnership. We also acknowledge joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research
AU  - Charnley,GEC
AU  - Kelman,I
AU  - Green,N
AU  - Gaythorpe,KAM
AU  - Murray,KA
AU  - Hinsley,W
DO  - 10.1101/2021.07.16.21260629
PB  - Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
PY  - 2021///
TI  - Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.16.21260629
UR  - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.16.21260629v1
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/92875
ER  -
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