Imperial College London
Alternate

Professor George K. Christophides

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Life Sciences

Professor of Infectious Diseases & Immunity
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 5342g.christophides

 
 
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Location

 

6165Sir Alexander Fleming BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Proestos:2015:10.1098/rstb.2013.0554,
author = {Proestos, Y and Christophides, GK and Erguler, K and Tanarhte, M and Waldock, J and Lelieveld, J},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2013.0554},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
pages = {1--16},
title = {Present and future projections of habitat suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito, a vector of viral pathogens, from global climate simulation},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0554},
volume = {370},
year = {2015}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Climate change can influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) through altering the habitat suitability of insect vectors. Here we present global climate model simulations and evaluate the associated uncertainties in view of the main meteorological factors that may affect the distribution of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can transmit pathogens that cause chikungunya, dengue fever, yellow fever and various encephalitides. Using a general circulation model at 50 km horizontal resolution to simulate mosquito survival variables including temperature, precipitation and relative humidity, we present both global and regional projections of the habitat suitability up to the middle of the twenty-first century. The model resolution of 50 km allows evaluation against previous projections for Europe and provides a basis for comparative analyses with other regions. Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past. Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability. From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million km2 will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus. The synthesis of fuzzy-logic based on mosquito biology and climate change analysis provides new insights into the regional and global spreading of VBDs to support disease control and policy making.
AU  - Proestos,Y
AU  - Christophides,GK
AU  - Erguler,K
AU  - Tanarhte,M
AU  - Waldock,J
AU  - Lelieveld,J
DO  - 10.1098/rstb.2013.0554
EP  - 16
PY  - 2015///
SN  - 0962-8436
SP  - 1
TI  - Present and future projections of habitat suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito, a vector of viral pathogens, from global climate simulation
T2  - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0554
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000350829800004&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2013.0554
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/91804
VL  - 370
ER  -
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