Imperial College London
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ProfessorGrahamCooke

Faculty of Medicine, Department of Infectious Disease

Vice Dean (Research); Professor of Infectious Diseases
 
 
 
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g.cooke

 
 
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Location

 

Infectious Diseases SectionMedical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Eales:2022:10.1101/2022.10.12.22281016,
author = {Eales, O and Haw, D and Wang, H and Atchison, C and Ashby, D and Cooke, G and Barclay, W and Ward, H and Darzi, A and Donnelly, CA and Chadeau-Hyam, M and Elliott, P and Riley, S},
doi = {10.1101/2022.10.12.22281016},
title = {Quantifying changes in the IFR and IHR over 23 months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2022.10.12.22281016},
year = {2022}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>The relationship between prevalence of infection and severe outcomes such as hospitalisation and death changed over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study estimated swab positivity in England approximately monthly from May 2020 to 31 March 2022. This period covers widespread circulation of the original strain, the emergence of the Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants and the rollout of England’s mass vaccination campaign.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>Here, we explore this changing relationship between prevalence of swab positivity and the infection fatality rate (IFR) and infection hospitalisation rate (IHR) over 23 months of the pandemic in England, using publicly available data for the daily number of deaths and hospitalisations, REACT-1 swab positivity data, time-delay models and Bayesian P-spline models. We analyse data for all age groups together, as well as in two sub-groups: those aged 65 and over and those aged 64 and under.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>During 2020, we estimated the IFR to be 0.67% and the IHR to be 2.6%. By late-2021/early-2022 the IFR and IHR had both decreased to 0.097% and 0.76% respectively. Continuous estimates of the IFR and IHR of the virus were observed to increase during the periods of Alpha and Delta’s emergence. During periods of vaccination rollout, and the emergence of the Omicron variant, the IFR and IHR of the virus decreased. During 2020, we estimated a time-lag of 19 days between hospitalisation and swab positivity, and 26 days between deaths and swab positivity. By late-2021/early-2022 these time-lags had decreased to 7 days for hospitalisations, and 18 days for deaths.</jats:
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - Haw,D
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Atchison,C
AU  - Ashby,D
AU  - Cooke,G
AU  - Barclay,W
AU  - Ward,H
AU  - Darzi,A
AU  - Donnelly,CA
AU  - Chadeau-Hyam,M
AU  - Elliott,P
AU  - Riley,S
DO  - 10.1101/2022.10.12.22281016
PY  - 2022///
TI  - Quantifying changes in the IFR and IHR over 23 months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2022.10.12.22281016
ER  -
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