Publications

BibTex format

@article{Volz:2021:10.1038/s41586-021-03470-x,
author = {Volz, E and Mishra, S and Chand, M and Barrett, JC and Johnson, R and Geidelberg, L and Hinsley, WR and Laydon, DJ and Dabrera, G and O'Toole, Á and Amato, R and Ragonnet-Cronin, M and Harrison, I and Jackson, B and Ariani, CV and Boyd, O and Loman, NJ and McCrone, JT and Gonçalves, S and Jorgensen, D and Myers, R and Hill, V and Jackson, DK and Gaythorpe, K and Groves, N and Sillitoe, J and Kwiatkowski, DP and COVID-19, Genomics UK COG-UK consortium and Flaxman, S and Ratmann, O and Bhatt, S and Hopkins, S and Gandy, A and Rambaut, A and Ferguson, NM},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-021-03470-x},
journal = {Nature},
pages = {266--269},
title = {Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03470-x},
volume = {593},
year = {2021}
}

Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated a Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC) by Public Health England1, originated in the UK in late Summer to early Autumn 20202. Whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing shows an unprecedentedly rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during Autumn 2020, suggesting a selective advantage. We find that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S-gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that the VOC has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if the VOC has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with a larger share of under 20 year olds among reported VOC than non-VOC cases. Time-varying reproduction numbers for the VOC and cocirculating lineages were estimated using SGTF and genomic data. The best supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups. There is a consensus among all analyses that the VOC has a substantial transmission advantage with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.
AU  - Volz,E
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Chand,M
AU  - Barrett,JC
AU  - Johnson,R
AU  - Geidelberg,L
AU  - Hinsley,WR
AU  - Laydon,DJ
AU  - Dabrera,G
AU  - O'Toole,Á
AU  - Amato,R
AU  - Ragonnet-Cronin,M
AU  - Harrison,I
AU  - Jackson,B
AU  - Ariani,CV
AU  - Boyd,O
AU  - Loman,NJ
AU  - McCrone,JT
AU  - Gonçalves,S
AU  - Jorgensen,D
AU  - Myers,R
AU  - Hill,V
AU  - Jackson,DK
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Groves,N
AU  - Sillitoe,J
AU  - Kwiatkowski,DP
AU  - COVID-19,Genomics UK COG-UK consortium
AU  - Flaxman,S
AU  - Ratmann,O
AU  - Bhatt,S
AU  - Hopkins,S
AU  - Gandy,A
AU  - Rambaut,A
AU  - Ferguson,NM
DO  - 10.1038/s41586-021-03470-x
EP  - 269
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0028-0836
SP  - 266
TI  - Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
T2  - Nature
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03470-x
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33767447
UR  - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/early/2021/01/04/2020.12.30.20249034.1
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/87474
VL  - 593
ER  -

Download

Professor Graham P Taylor

Contact

Location

Summary

Citation

BibTex format

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)