## Publications

101 results found

Abdulle A, Pavliotis GA, Zanoni A, 2022, Eigenfunction martingale estimating functions and filtered data for drift estimation of discretely observed multiscale diffusions, *Statistics and Computing*, Vol: 32, Pages: 1-33, ISSN: 0960-3174

We propose a novel method for drift estimation of multiscale diffusion processes when a sequence of discrete observations is given. For the Langevin dynamics in a two-scale potential, our approach relies on the eigenvalues and the eigenfunctions of the homogenized dynamics. Our first estimator is derived from a martingale estimating function of the generator of the homogenized diffusion process. However, the unbiasedness of the estimator depends on the rate with which the observations are sampled. We therefore introduce a second estimator which relies also on filtering the data, and we prove that it is asymptotically unbiased independently of the sampling rate. A series of numerical experiments illustrate the reliability and efficiency of our different estimators.

Pavliotis GA, Stuart AM, Vaes U, 2022, Derivative-free Bayesian inversion using multiscale dynamics, *SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems*, Vol: 21, Pages: 284-326, ISSN: 1536-0040

Inverse problems are ubiquitous because they formalize the integration of data with mathematical models. In many scientific applications the forward model is expensive to evaluate, and adjoint computations are difficult to employ; in this setting derivative-free methods which involve a small number of forward model evaluations are an attractive proposition. Ensemble Kalman-based interacting particle systems (and variants such as consensus-based and unscented Kalman approaches) have proven empirically successful in this context, but suffer from the fact that they cannot be systematically refined to return the true solution, except in the setting of linear forward models [A. Garbuno-Inigo et al., SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Syst., 19 (2020), pp. 412--441]. In this paper, we propose a new derivative-free approach to Bayesian inversion, which may be employed for posterior sampling or for maximum a posteriori estimation, and may be systematically refined. The method relies on a fast/slow system of stochastic differential equations for the local approximation of the gradient of the log-likelihood appearing in a Langevin diffusion. Furthermore the method may be preconditioned by use of information from ensemble Kalman--based methods (and variants), providing a methodology which leverages the documented advantages of those methods, while also being provably refinable. We define the methodology, highlighting its flexibility and many variants, provide a theoretical analysis of the proposed approach, and demonstrate its efficacy by means of numerical experiments.

Da Costa L, Friston K, Heins C,
et al., 2021, Bayesian mechanics for stationary processes, *Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences*, Vol: 477, Pages: 1-26, ISSN: 1364-5021

This paper develops a Bayesian mechanics for adaptive systems. Firstly, we model the interface between a system and its environment with a Markov blanket. This affords conditions under which states internal to the blanket encode information about external states. Second, we introduce dynamics and represent adaptive systems as Markov blankets at steady state. This allows us to identify a wide class of systems whose internal states appear to infer external states, consistent with variational inference in Bayesian statistics and theoretical neuroscience. Finally, we partition the blanket into sensory and active states. It follows that active states can be seen as performing active inference and well-known forms of stochastic control (such as PID control), which are prominent formulations of adaptive behaviour in theoretical biology and engineering.

Goddard BD, Gooding B, Short H,
et al., 2021, Noisy bounded confidence models for opinion dynamics: the effect of boundary conditions on phase transitions, *IMA Journal of Applied Mathematics*, Vol: 87, Pages: 80-110, ISSN: 0272-4960

We study SDE and PDE models for opinion dynamics under bounded confidence, for a range of different boundary conditions, with and without the inclusion of a radical population. We perform exhaustive numerical studies with pseudo-spectral methods to determine the effects of the boundary conditions, suggesting that the no-flux case most faithfully reproduces the underlying mechanisms in the associated deterministic models of Hegselmann and Krause. We also compare the SDE and PDE models, and use tools from analysis to study phase transitions, including a systematic description of an appropriate order parameter.

Delgadino MG, Gvalani RS, Pavliotis G, 2021, On the diffusive-mean field limit for weakly interacting diffusionsexhibiting phase transitions, *Archive for Rational Mechanics and Analysis*, Vol: 241, Pages: 91-148, ISSN: 0003-9527

The objective of this article is to analyse the statistical behaviour of a large number of weakly interacting diffusion processes evolving under the influence of a periodic interaction potential. We focus our attention on the combined mean field and diffusive (homogenisation) limits. In particular, we show that these two limits do not commute if the mean field system constrained to the torus undergoes a phase transition, that is to say, if it admits more than one steady state. A typical example of such a system on the torus is given by the noisy Kuramoto model of mean field plane rotators. As a by-product of our main results, we also analyse the energetic consequences of the central limit theorem for fluctuations around the mean field limit and derive optimal rates of convergence in relative entropy of the Gibbs measure to the (unique) limit of the mean field energy below the critical temperature.

Abdulle A, Garegnani G, Pavliotis GA,
et al., 2021, Drift estimation of multiscale diffusions based on filtered data, *Foundations of Computational Mathematics*, ISSN: 1615-3375

We study the problem of drift estimation for two-scale continuous time series. We set ourselves in the framework of overdamped Langevin equations, for which a single-scale surrogate homogenized equation exists. In this setting, estimating the drift coefficient of the homogenized equation requires pre-processing of the data, often in the form of subsampling; this is because the two-scale equation and the homogenized single-scale equation are incompatible at small scales, generating mutually singular measures on the path space. We avoid subsampling and work instead with filtered data, found by application of an appropriate kernel function, and compute maximum likelihood estimators based on the filtered process. We show that the estimators we propose are asymptotically unbiased and demonstrate numerically the advantages of our method with respect to subsampling. Finally, we show how our filtered data methodology can be combined with Bayesian techniques and provide a full uncertainty quantification of the inference procedure.

Zagli N, Lucarini V, Pavliotis GA, 2021, Spectroscopy of phase transitions for multiagent systems, *Chaos: an interdisciplinary journal of nonlinear science*, Vol: 31, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 1054-1500

In this paper, we study phase transitions for weakly interacting multiagent systems. By investigating the linear response of a system composed of a finite number of agents, we are able to probe the emergence in the thermodynamic limit of a singular behavior of the susceptibility. We find clear evidence of the loss of analyticity due to a pole crossing the real axis of frequencies. Such behavior has a degree of universality, as it does not depend on either the applied forcing or on the considered observable. We present results relevant for both equilibrium and nonequilibrium phase transitions by studying the Desai–Zwanzig and Bonilla–Casado–Morillo models.Multiagent models feature in a very vast range of applications in natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering. We study here the Desai–Zwanzig (DZ) and Bonilla–Casado–Morillo (BCM) models, which are paradigmatic for equilibrium and nonequilibrium conditions, respectively. Phase transitions result from the coordination between the individual agents and are associated with the divergence of the linear response of the system. The occurrence of phase transitions is universal: it does not depend on the acting forcing and can be detected by looking at virtually any observable of the system. We showcase here how response theory is capable of providing a useful angle for understanding the universal properties of phase transitions in complex systems.

Borovykh A, Kantas N, Parpas P,
et al., 2021, On stochastic mirror descent with interacting particles: Convergence properties and variance reduction, *Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena*, Vol: 418, Pages: 1-21, ISSN: 0167-2789

An open problem in optimization with noisy information is the computation of an exact minimizer that is independent of the amount of noise. A standard practice in stochastic approximation algorithms is to use a decreasing step-size. This however leads to a slower convergence. A second alternative is to use a fixed step-size and run independent replicas of the algorithm and average these. A third option is to run replicas of the algorithm and allow them to interact. It is unclear which of these options works best. To address this question, we reduce the problem of the computation of an exact minimizer with noisy gradient information to the study of stochastic mirror descent with interacting particles. We study the convergence of stochastic mirror descent and make explicit the tradeoffs between communication and variance reduction. We provide theoretical and numerical evidence to suggest that interaction helps to improve convergence and reduce the variance of the estimate.

Pavliotis GA, Stoltz G, Vaes U, 2021, Scaling limits for the generalized langevin equation, *Journal of Nonlinear Science*, Vol: 31, Pages: 1-58, ISSN: 0938-8974

In this paper, we study the diffusive limit of solutions to the generalized Langevin equation (GLE) in a periodic potential. Under the assumption of quasi-Markovianity, we obtain sharp longtime equilibration estimates for the GLE using techniques from the theory of hypocoercivity. We then show asymptotic results for the effective diffusion coefficient in the small correlation time regime, as well as in the overdamped and underdamped limits. Finally, we employ a recently developed numerical method (Roussel and Stoltz in ESAIM Math Model Numer Anal 52(3):1051–1083, 2018) to calculate the effective diffusion coefficient for a wide range of (effective) friction coefficients, confirming our asymptotic results.

Lucarini V, Pavliotis G, Zagli N, 2020, Response theory and phase transitions for the thermodynamic limit of interacting identical systems, *Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences*, Vol: 476, ISSN: 1364-5021

We study the response to perturbations in the thermodynamic limit of a network of coupled identical agents undergoing a stochastic evolution which, in general, describes non-equilibrium conditions. All systems are nudged towards the common centre of mass. We derive Kramers–Kronig relations and sum rules for the linear susceptibilities obtained through mean field Fokker–Planck equations and then propose corrections relevant for the macroscopic case, which incorporates in a self-consistent way the effect of the mutual interaction between the systems. Such an interaction creates a memory effect. We are able to derive conditions determining the occurrence of phase transitions specifically due to system-to-system interactions. Such phase transitions exist in the thermodynamic limit and are associated with the divergence of the linear response but are not accompanied by the divergence in the integrated autocorrelation time for a suitably defined observable. We clarify that such endogenous phase transitions are fundamentally different from other pathologies in the linear response that can be framed in the context of critical transitions. Finally, we show how our results can elucidate the properties of the Desai–Zwanzig model and of the Bonilla–Casado–Morillo model, which feature paradigmatic equilibrium and non-equilibrium phase transitions, respectively.

Lucarini V, Pavliotis GA, Zagli N, 2020, Response theory and phase transitions for the thermodynamic limit of interacting identical systems: Phase Transitions in Interacting Systems, *Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences*, Vol: 476, Pages: 1-27, ISSN: 1364-5021

We study the response to perturbations in the thermodynamic limit of a network of coupled identical agents undergoing a stochastic evolution which, in general, describes non-equilibrium conditions. All systems are nudged towards the common centre of mass. We derive Kramers-Kronig relations and sum rules for the linear susceptibilities obtained through mean field Fokker-Planck equations and then propose corrections relevant for the macroscopic case, which incorporates in a self-consistent way the effect of the mutual interaction between the systems. Such an interaction creates a memory effect. We are able to derive conditions determining the occurrence of phase transitions specifically due to system-to-system interactions. Such phase transitions exist in the thermodynamic limit and are associated with the divergence of the linear response but are not accompanied by the divergence in the integrated autocorrelation time for a suitably defined observable. We clarify that such endogenous phase transitions are fundamentally different from other pathologies in the linear response that can be framed in the context of critical transitions. Finally, we show how our results can elucidate the properties of the Desai-Zwanzig model and of the Bonilla-Casado-Morillo model, which feature paradigmatic equilibrium and non-equilibrium phase transitions, respectively.

Carrillo JA, Delgadino MG, Pavliotis GA, 2020, A λ-convexity based proof for the propagation of chaos for weakly interacting stochastic particles, *Journal of Functional Analysis*, Vol: 279, Pages: 1-30, ISSN: 0022-1236

In this work we give a proof of the mean-field limit for λ-convex potentials using a purely variational viewpoint. Our approach is based on the observation that all evolution equations that we study can be written as gradient flows of functionals at different levels: in the set of probability measures, in the set of symmetric probability measures on N variables, and in the set of probability measures on probability measures. This basic fact allows us to rely on Γ-convergence tools for gradient flows to complete the proof by identifying the limits of the different terms in the Evolutionary Variational Inequalities (EVIs) associated to each gradient flow. The λ-convexity of the confining and interaction potentials is crucial for the unique identification of the limits and for deriving the EVIs at each description level of the interacting particle system.

Pozharskiy D, Wichrowski NJ, Duncan AB,
et al., 2020, Manifold learning for accelerating coarse-grained optimization, *Journal of Computational Dynamics*, Vol: 7, Pages: 511-536, ISSN: 2158-2505

Algorithms proposed for solving high-dimensional optimization problems with no derivative information frequently encounter the "curse of dimensionality, " becoming ineffective as the dimension of the parameter space grows. One feature of a subclass of such problems that are effectively low-dimensional is that only a few parameters (or combinations thereof) are important for the optimization and must be explored in detail. Knowing these parameters/combinations in advance would greatly simplify the problem and its solution. We propose the data-driven construction of an effective (coarse-grained, "trend") optimizer, based on data obtained from ensembles of brief simulation bursts with an "inner" optimization algorithm, that has the potential to accelerate the exploration of the parameter space. The trajectories of this "effective optimizer" quickly become attracted onto a slow manifold parameterized by the few relevant parameter combinations. We obtain the parameterization of this low-dimensional, effective optimization manifold on the fly using data mining/manifold learning techniques on the results of simulation (inner optimizer iteration) burst ensembles and exploit it locally to "jump" forward along this manifold. As a result, we can bias the exploration of the parameter space towards the few, important directions and, through this "wrapper algorithm, " speed up the convergence of traditional optimization algorithms.

Zelati MC, Pavliotis GA, 2020, Homogenization and hypocoercivity for Fokker-Planck equations driven by weakly compressible shear flows, *IMA Journal of Applied Mathematics*, Vol: 85, Pages: 951-979, ISSN: 0272-4960

We study the long-time dynamics of 2D linear Fokker–Planck equations driven by a drift that can be decomposed in the sum of a large shear component and the gradient of a regular potential depending on one spatial variable. The problem can be interpreted as that of a passive scalar advected by a slightly compressible shear flow, and undergoing small diffusion. For the corresponding stochastic differential equation, we give explicit homogenization rates in terms of a family of time-scales depending on the parameter measuring the strength of the incompressible perturbation. This is achieved by exploiting an auxiliary Poisson problem, and by computing the related effective diffusion coefficients. Regarding the long-time behavior of the solution of the Fokker–Planck equation, we provide explicit decay rates to the unique invariant measure by employing a quantitative version of the classical hypocoercivity scheme. From a fluid mechanics perspective, this turns out to be equivalent to quantifying the phenomenon of enhanced diffusion for slightly compressible shear flows.

Gomes SN, Pavliotis GA, Vaes U, 2020, Mean field limits for interacting diffusions with colored noise: phase transitions and spectral numerical methods, *SIAM: Multiscale Modeling and Simulation*, Vol: 18, Pages: 1343-1370, ISSN: 1540-3459

In this paper we consider systems of weakly interacting particles driven by colored noise in a bistable potential, and we study the effect of the correlation time of the noise on the bifurcation diagram for the equilibrium states. We accomplish this by solving the corresponding McKean--Vlasov equation using a Hermite spectral method, and we verify our findings using Monte Carlo simulations of the particle system. We consider both Gaussian and non-Gaussian noise processes, and for each model of the noise we also study the behavior of the system in the small correlation time regime using perturbation theory. The spectral method that we develop in this paper can be used for solving linear and nonlinear, local and nonlocal (mean field) Fokker--Planck equations, without requiring that they have a gradient structure.

Carrillo de la Plata JA, Gvalani R, Pavliotis G,
et al., 2020, Long-time behaviour and phase transitions for the McKean—Vlasov equation on the torus, *Archive for Rational Mechanics and Analysis*, Vol: 235, Pages: 635-690, ISSN: 0003-9527

We study the McKean-Vlasov equation∂t% = β−1∆% + κ ∇·(%∇(W ? %)) ,with periodic boundary conditions on the torus. We first study the global asymptotic stability of thehomogeneous steady state. We then focus our attention on the stationary system, and prove the existenceof nontrivial solutions branching from the homogeneous steady state, through possibly infinitely manybifurcations, under appropriate assumptions on the interaction potential. We also provide sufficientconditions for the existence of continuous and discontinuous phase transitions. Finally, we showcase theseresults by applying them to several examples of interaction potentials such as the noisy Kuramoto modelfor synchronisation, the Keller–Segel model for bacterial chemotaxis, and the noisy Hegselmann–Kraussemodel for opinion dynamics.

Abdulle A, Pavliotis GA, Vilmart G, 2019, Accelerated convergence to equilibrium and reduced asymptotic variance for Langevin dynamics using Stratonovich perturbations, *Comptes Rendus Mathematique (Academie des Sciences)*, Vol: 357, Pages: 349-354, ISSN: 0764-4442

In this paper, we propose a new approach for sampling from probability measures in, possibly, high-dimensional spaces. By perturbing the standard overdamped Langevin dynamics by a suitable Stratonovich perturbation that preserves the invariant measure of the original system, we show that accelerated convergence to equilibrium and reduced asymptotic variance can be achieved, leading, thus, to a computationally advantageous sampling algorithm. The new perturbed Langevin dynamics is reversible with respect to the target probability measure and, consequently, does not suffer from the drawbacks of the nonreversible Langevin samplers that were introduced in C.-R. Hwang et al. (1993)[1]and studied in, e.g., T. Lelièvre et al. (2013)[2]and A.B. Duncan et al. (2016)[3], while retaining all of their advantages in terms of accelerated convergence and reduced asymptotic variance. In particular, the reversibility of the dynamics ensures that there is no oscillatory transient behaviour. The improved performance of the proposed methodology, in comparison to the standard overdamped Langevin dynamics and its nonreversible perturbation, is illustrated on an example of sampling from a two-dimensional warped Gaussian target distribution.

Carrillo JA, Gvalani RS, Pavliotis GA, et al., 2019, Long-time behaviour and phase transitions for the McKean--Vlasov equation on the torus, Publisher: ArXiv

We study the McKean-Vlasov equation∂t̺ = β−1∆̺ + κ ∇·(̺∇(W ⋆ ̺)) ,with periodic boundary conditions on the torus. We first study the global asymptotic stability of thehomogeneous steady state. We then focus our attention on the stationary system, and prove the existenceof nontrivial solutions branching from the homogeneous steady state, through possibly infinitely manybifurcations, under appropriate assumptions on the interaction potential. We also provide sufficientconditions for the existence of continuous and discontinuous phase transitions. Finally, we showcasethese results by applying them to several examples of interaction potentials such as the noisy Kuramotomodel for synchronisation, the Keller–Segel model for bacterial chemotaxis, and the noisy Hegselmann–Krausse model for opinion dynamics.

Nüsken N, Pavliotis GA, 2019, Constructing sampling schemes via coupling: Markov semigroups and optimal transport, *SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification*, Vol: 7, Pages: 324-382, ISSN: 2166-2525

In this paper we develop a general framework for constructing and analyzing coupled Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers, allowing for both (possibly degenerate) diffusion and piecewise deterministic Markov processes. For many performance criteria of interest, including the asymptotic variance, the task of finding efficient couplings can be phrased in terms of problems related to optimal transport theory. We investigate general structural properties, proving a singularity theorem that has both geometric and probabilistic interpretations. Moreover, we show that those problems can often be solved approximately and support our findings with numerical experiments. For the particular objective of estimating the variance of a Bayesian posterior, our analysis suggests using novel techniques in the spirit of antithetic variates. Addressing the convergence to equilibrium of coupled processes we furthermore derive a modified Poincaré inequality.

Gomes SN, Kalliadasis S, Pavliotis GA,
et al., 2019, Dynamics of the Desai-Zwanzig model in multiwell and random energy landscapes, *Physical Review E*, Vol: 99, ISSN: 2470-0045

We analyze a variant of the Desai-Zwanzig model [J. Stat. Phys. 19, 1 (1978)]. In particular, we study stationary states of the mean field limit for a system of weakly interacting diffusions moving in a multiwell potential energy landscape, coupled via a Curie-Weiss type (quadratic) interaction potential. The location and depth of the local minima of the potential are either deterministic or random. We characterize the structure and nature of bifurcations and phase transitions for this system, by means of extensive numerical simulations and of analytical calculations for an explicitly solvable model. Our numerical experiments are based on Monte Carlo simulations, the numerical solution of the time-dependent nonlinear Fokker-Planck (McKean-Vlasov) equation, the minimization of the free-energy functional, and a continuation algorithm for the stationary solutions.

Durán-Olivencia MA, Gvalani RS, Kalliadasis S,
et al., 2019, Instability, rupture and fluctuations in thin liquid films: Theory and computations, *Journal of Statistical Physics*, Vol: 174, Pages: 579-604, ISSN: 0022-4715

Thin liquid films are ubiquitous in natural phenomena and technological applications. They have been extensively studied via deterministic hydrodynamic equations, but thermal fluctuations often play a crucial role that needs to be understood. An example of this is dewetting, which involves the rupture of a thin liquid film and the formation of droplets. Such a process is thermally activated and requires fluctuations to be taken into account self-consistently. In this work we present an analytical and numerical study of a stochastic thin-film equation derived from first principles. Following a brief review of the derivation, we scrutinise the behaviour of the equation in the limit of perfectly correlated noise along the wall-normal direction, as opposed to the perfectly uncorrelated limit studied by Grün et al. (J Stat Phys 122(6):1261–1291, 2006). We also present a numerical scheme based on a spectral collocation method, which is then utilised to simulate the stochastic thin-film equation. This scheme seems to be very convenient for numerical studies of the stochastic thin-film equation, since it makes it easier to select the frequency modes of the noise (following the spirit of the long-wave approximation). With our numerical scheme we explore the fluctuating dynamics of the thin film and the behaviour of its free energy in the vicinity of rupture. Finally, we study the effect of the noise intensity on the rupture time, using a large number of sample paths as compared to previous studies.

Tomlin R, Gomes SN, Pavliotis G,
et al., 2019, Optimal control of thin liquid films and transverse mode effects, *SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems*, Vol: 18, Pages: 117-149, ISSN: 1536-0040

We consider the control of a three-dimensional thin liquid film on a flat substrate, inclined at a nonzero angle to the horizontal. Controls are applied via same-fluid blowing and suction through the substrate surface. The film may be either overlying or hanging, where the liquid lies above or below the substrate, respectively. We study the weakly nonlinear evolution of the fluid interface, which is governed by a forced Kuramoto--Sivashinsky equation in two space dimensions. The uncontrolled problem exhibits three ranges of dynamics depending on the incline of the substrate: stable flat film solution, bounded chaotic dynamics, or unbounded exponential growth of unstable transverse modes. We proceed with the assumption that we may actuate at every location on the substrate. The main focus is the optimal control problem, which we first study in the special case that the forcing may only vary in the spanwise direction. The structure of the Kuramoto--Sivashinsky equation allows the explicit construction of optimal controls in this case using the classical theory of linear quadratic regulators. Such controls are employed to prevent the exponential growth of transverse waves in the case of a hanging film, revealing complex dynamics for the streamwise and mixed modes. Next, we consider the optimal control problem in full generality and prove the existence of an optimal control. For numerical simulations, an iterative gradient descent algorithm is employed. Finally, we consider the effects of transverse mode forcing on the chaotic dynamics present in the streamwise and mixed modes for the case of a vertical film flow. Coupling through nonlinearity allows us to reduce the average energy in solutions without directly forcing the dominant linearly unstable modes.

Schmuck M, Pavliotis GA, Kalliadasis S, 2019, Recent advances in the evolution of interfaces: Thermodynamics, upscaling, and universality, *Computational Materials Science*, Vol: 156, Pages: 441-451, ISSN: 0927-0256

We consider the evolution of interfaces in binary mixtures permeating strongly heterogeneous systems such as porous media. To this end, we first review available thermodynamic formulations for binary mixtures based on general reversible-irreversible couplings and the associated mathematical attempts to formulate a non-equilibrium variational principle in which these non-equilibrium couplings can be identified as minimizers. Based on this, we investigate two microscopic binary mixture formulations fully resolving heterogeneous/perforated domains: (a) a flux-driven immiscible fluid formulation without fluid flow; (b) a momentum-driven formulation for quasi-static and incompressible velocity fields. In both cases we state two novel, reliably upscaled equations for binary mixtures/multiphase fluids in strongly heterogeneous systems by systematically taking thermodynamic features such as free energies into account as well as the system's heterogeneity defined on the microscale such as geometry and materials (e.g. wetting properties). In the context of (a), we unravel a universality with respect to the coarsening rate due to its independence of the system's heterogeneity, i.e. the well-known O(t1/3)-behaviour for homogeneous systems holds also for perforated domains. Finally, the versatility of phase field equations and their thermodynamic foundation relying on free energies, make the collected recent developments here highly promising for scientific, engineering and industrial applications for which we provide an example for lithium batteries.

Duncan A, Zygalakis K, Pavliotis G, 2018, Nonreversible Langevin Samplers: Splitting Schemes, Analysis and Implementation

For a given target density, there exist an infinite number of diffusion processes which are ergodic with respect to this density. As observed in a number of papers, samplers based on nonreversible diffusion processes can significantly outperform their reversible counterparts both in terms of asymptotic variance and rate of convergence to equilibrium. In this paper, we take advantage of this in order to construct efficient sampling algorithms based on the Lie-Trotter decomposition of a nonreversible diffusion process into reversible and nonreversible components. We show that samplers based on this scheme can significantly outperform standard MCMC methods, at the cost of introducing some controlled bias. In particular, we prove that numerical integrators constructed according to this decomposition are geometrically ergodic and characterise fully their asymptotic bias and variance, showing that the sampler inherits the good mixing properties of the underlying nonreversible diffusion. This is illustrated further with a number of numerical examples ranging from highly correlated low dimensional distributions, to logistic regression problems in high dimensions as well as inference for spatial models with many latent variables.

Craster R, Guenneau S, Hutridurga Ramaiah H,
et al., 2018, Cloaking via mapping for the heat equation, *Multiscale Modeling and Simulation: A SIAM Interdisciplinary Journal*, Vol: 16, Pages: 1146-1174, ISSN: 1540-3459

This paper explores the concept of near-cloaking in the context of time-dependentheat propagation. We show that after the lapse of a certain threshold time, the boundary measure-ments for the homogeneous heat equation are close to the cloaked heat problem in a certain Sobolevspace norm irrespective of the density-conductivity pair in the cloaked region. A regularised trans-formation media theory is employed to arrive at our results. Our proof relies on the study of the longtime behaviour of solutions to the parabolic problems with high contrast in density and conductivitycoefficients. It further relies on the study of boundary measurement estimates in the presence of smalldefects in the context of steady conduction problem. We then present some numerical examples to illustrate our theoretical results.

Noronha Moreira Antunes Gomes ST, Pavliotis GA, 2018, Mean field limits for interacting diffusions in a two-scale potential, *Journal of Nonlinear Science*, Vol: 28, Pages: 905-941, ISSN: 0938-8974

In this paper we study the combined mean field and homogenization limits for a system of weakly interacting diffusions moving in a two-scale, locally periodic confining potential, of the form considered in [13]. We show that, although the mean field and homogenization limits commute for finite times, they do not, in general, commute in the long time limit. In particular, the bifurcation diagrams for the stationary states can be different depending on the order with which we take the two limits. Furthermore, we construct the bifurcation diagram for the stationary McKean-Vlasov equation in a two-scale potential, before passing to the homogenization limit, and we analyze the effect of the multiple local minima in the confining potential on the number and the stability of stationary solutions.

Ellam L, Girolami M, Pavliotis GA,
et al., 2018, Stochastic modelling of urban structure, *Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences*, Vol: 474, Pages: 1-20, ISSN: 1364-5021

The building of mathematical and computer models of cities has a long history. The core elements are models of flows (spatial interaction) and the dynamics of structural evolution. In this article, we develop a stochastic model of urban structure to formally account for uncertainty arising from less predictable events. Standard practice has been to calibrate the spatial interaction models independently and to explore the dynamics through simulation. We present two significant results that will be transformative for both elements. First, we represent the structural variables through a single potential function and develop stochastic differential equations to model the evolution. Second, we show that the parameters of the spatial interaction model can be estimated from the structure alone, independently of flow data, using the Bayesian inferential framework. The posterior distribution is doubly intractable and poses significant computational challenges that we overcome using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We demonstrate our methodology with a case study on the London, UK, retail system.

Duong MH, Pavliotis GA, 2018, Mean field limits for non-Markovian interacting particles: Convergence to equilibrium, generic formalism, asymptotic limits and phase transitions, *Communications in Mathematical Sciences*, Vol: 16, Pages: 2199-2230, ISSN: 1539-6746

© 2018 International Press. In this paper, we study the mean field limit of weakly interacting particles with memory that are governed by a system of non-Markovian Langevin equations. Under the assumption of quasi- Markovianity (i.e. the memory in the system can be described using a finite number of auxiliary processes), we pass to the mean field limit to obtain the corresponding McKean-Vlasov equation in an extended phase space. For the case of a quadratic confining potential and a quadratic (Curie- Weiss) interaction, we obtain the fundamental solution (Green's function). For nonconvex confining potentials, we characterize the stationary state(s) of the McKean-Vlasov equation, and we show that the bifurcation diagram of the stationary problem is independent of the memory in the system. In addition, we show that the McKean-Vlasov equation for the non-Markovian dynamics can be written in the GENERIC formalism and we study convergence to equilibrium and the Markovian asymptotic limit.

Duncan AB, Nusken N, Pavliotis GA, 2017, Using perturbed underdamped langevin dynamics to efficiently sample from probability distributions, *Journal of Statistical Physics*, Vol: 169, Pages: 1098-1131, ISSN: 1572-9613

In this paper we introduce and analyse Langevin samplers that consist of perturbations of the standard underdamped Langevin dynamics. The perturbed dynamics is such that its invariant measure is the same as that of the unperturbed dynamics. We show that appropriate choices of the perturbations can lead to samplers that have improved properties, at least in terms of reducing the asymptotic variance. We present a detailed analysis of the new Langevin sampler for Gaussian target distributions. Our theoretical results are supported by numerical experiments with non-Gaussian target measures.

Craster R, Guenneau S, Hutridurga H, et al., 2017, Regularized transformation optics for transient heat transfer, 2017 11th International Congress on Engineered Material Platforms for Novel Wave Phenomena (METAMATERIALS), Publisher: IEEE, Pages: 127-129

This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.