Imperial College London

Dr Juliette Unwin

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Academic Visitor



+44 (0)20 7594 3946h.unwin




UG1247 Praed StreetSt Mary's Campus





I am a visiting researcher based in the MRC centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis in the School of Public Health at Imperial College, London.  I hold this position alongside being a Lecturer in Statistical Science at the University of Bristol. I am interested in developing and applying novel methods for infectious disease outbreak analysis to help inform policy makers in real time.  My current research focuses on developing spatial temporal transmission models alongside estimating the number of children affected by COVID-19 and crises.

I am an active member of the Machine Learning and Global Health Network, which is a network of academics across the UK, Denmark, Germany and Singapore doing applied and methodological research in the field of Global Health.

I previously was part of the Imperial College COVID-19 response team looking at real time modelling of Rt across Europe and the USA and the 2018 Ebola response team.

I am a numerical modeller by background and was previously funded through a Imperial College Research Fellowship developing Hawkes Processes as a method for infectious disease outbreak and a Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation grant to use mathematical models of malaria endemic areas to answer policy related questions. For this grant I mainly focused on two projects: modelling the impact of pyrethroid resistance on the mass community effect of insecticide treated nets and identifying gaps in current malaria interventions where the RTS,S malaria vaccine could be targeted.

Selected Publications

Journal Articles

Unwin HJT, Hillis S, Cluver L, et al., 2022, Global, regional, and national minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, by age and family circumstance up to Oct 31, 2021: an updated modelling study, The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health, Vol:6, ISSN:2352-4642, Pages:249-259

Unwin H, Mwandigha L, Winskill P, et al., 2021, Analysis of the potential for a malaria vaccine to reduce gaps in malaria intervention coverage, Malaria Journal, Vol:20, ISSN:1475-2875, Pages:1-11

Hillis S, Unwin H, Chen Y, et al., 2021, Global minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of caregivers: a modelling study, The Lancet, Vol:398, ISSN:0140-6736, Pages:391-402

Unwin HJT, Routledge I, Flaxman S, et al., 2021, Using Hawkes Processes to model imported and local malaria cases in near-elimination settings, PLOS Computational Biology, Vol:17, ISSN:1553-734X, Pages:1-18

Unwin H, Mishra S, Bradley V, et al., 2020, State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States, Nature Communications, Vol:11, ISSN:2041-1723, Pages:1-9

Flaxman S, Mishra S, Gandy A, et al., 2020, Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe, Nature, Vol:584, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:257-261

Routledge I, Lai S, Battle KE, et al., 2020, Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: Individual-level estimates of transmission and its spatiotemporal variation using a diffusion network approach, PLOS Computational Biology, Vol:16, ISSN:1553-734X, Pages:1-20

More Publications