Publications
71 results found
Grassly N, Pons Salort M, Parker E, et al., 2020, Report 16: Role of testing in COVID-19 control
The World Health Organization has called for increased molecular testing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but different countries have taken very different approaches. We used a simple mathematical model to investigate the potential effectiveness of alternative testing strategies for COVID-19 control. Weekly screening of healthcare workers (HCWs) and other at-risk groups using PCR or point-of-care tests for infection irrespective of symptoms is estimated to reduce their contribution to transmission by 25-33%, on top of reductions achieved by self-isolation following symptoms. Widespread PCR testing in the general population is unlikely to limit transmission more than contact-tracing and quarantine based on symptoms alone, but could allow earlier release of contacts from quarantine. Immunity passports based on tests for antibody or infection could support return to work but face significant technical, legal and ethical challenges. Testing is essential for pandemic surveillance but its direct contribution to the prevention of transmission is likely to be limited to patients, HCWs and other high-risk groups.
Ainslie K, Walters C, Fu H, et al., 2020, Report 11: Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment
The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. As of 20 March 2020, over 254,000 cases and 10,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. The outbreak began in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. At the peak of the outbreak in China (early February), there were between 2,000 and 4,000 new confirmed cases per day. For the first time since the outbreak began there have been no new confirmed cases caused by local transmission in China reported for five consecutive days up to 23 March 2020. This is an indication that the social distancing measures enacted in China have led to control of COVID-19 in China. These interventions have also impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic is not yet clear. Here, we estimate transmissibility from reported cases and compare those estimates with daily data on within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the 5 provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation is no longer apparent even though within-city movement has started to increase. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity can be maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. These results do not preclude future epidemics in China, nor do they allow us to estimate the maximum proportion of previous within-city activity that will be recovered in the medium term. However, they do suggest that after very intense social distancing which resulted in containment, China has successfully exited their stringent social distancing policy to some degree. Globally, China is at a more advanced stage of the pandemic. Policies implemented to reduce the spread of CO
Routledge I, Lai S, Battle KE, et al., 2020, Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: Individual-level estimates of transmission and its spatiotemporal variation using a diffusion network approach, PLoS Computational Biology, Vol: 16, Pages: 1-20, ISSN: 1553-734X
In order to monitor progress towards malaria elimination, it is crucial to be able to measure changes in spatio-temporal transmission. However, common metrics of malaria transmission such as parasite prevalence are under powered in elimination contexts. China has achieved major reductions in malaria incidence and is on track to eliminate, having reporting zero locally-acquired malaria cases in 2017 and 2018. Understanding the spatio-temporal pattern underlying this decline, especially the relationship between locally-acquired and imported cases, can inform efforts to maintain elimination and prevent re-emergence. This is particularly pertinent in Yunnan province, where the potential for local transmission is highest. Using a geo-located individual-level dataset of cases recorded in Yunnan province between 2011 and 2016, we introduce a novel Bayesian framework to model a latent diffusion process and estimate the joint likelihood of transmission between cases and the number of cases with unobserved sources of infection. This is used to estimate the case reproduction number, Rc. We use these estimates within spatio-temporal geostatistical models to map how transmission varied over time and space, estimate the timeline to elimination and the risk of resurgence. We estimate the mean Rc between 2011 and 2016 to be 0.171 (95% CI = 0.165, 0.178) for P. vivax cases and 0.089 (95% CI = 0.076, 0.103) for P. falciparum cases. From 2014 onwards, no cases were estimated to have a Rc value above one. An unobserved source of infection was estimated to be moderately likely (p>0.5) for 19/ 611 cases and high (p>0.8) for 2 cases, suggesting very high levels of case ascertainment. Our estimates suggest that, maintaining current intervention efforts, Yunnan is unlikely to experience sustained local transmission up to 2020. However, even with a mean of 0.005 projected up to 2020, locally-acquired cases are possible due to high levels of importation.
Unwin HJT, Sherrard-Smith E, Churcher TS, et al., 2020, MODELLING THE IMPACT OF PYRETHROID RESISTANCE ON PERSONAL PROTECTION AND THE MASS COMMUNITY EFFECT OF LONG-LASTING INSECTICIDE TREATED NETS, 68th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-for-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 187-187, ISSN: 0002-9637
Jeffrey B, Walters CE, Ainslie KEC, et al., 2020, Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK., Wellcome open research, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2398-502X
<b>Background:</b> Since early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which have resulted in reduced mobility across different regions. Crowd level data on mobile phone usage can be used as a proxy for actual population mobility patterns and provide a way of quantifying the impact of social distancing measures on changes in mobility. <b>Methods:</b> Here, we use two mobile phone-based datasets (anonymised and aggregated crowd level data from O2 and from the Facebook app on mobile phones) to assess changes in average mobility, both overall and broken down into high and low population density areas, and changes in the distribution of journey lengths. <b>Results:</b> We show that there was a substantial overall reduction in mobility, with the most rapid decline on the 24th March 2020, the day after the Prime Minister's announcement of an enforced lockdown. The reduction in mobility was highly synchronized across the UK. Although mobility has remained low since 26th March 2020, we detect a gradual increase since that time. We also show that the two different datasets produce similar trends, albeit with some location-specific differences. We see slightly larger reductions in average mobility in high-density areas than in low-density areas, with greater variation in mobility in the high-density areas: some high-density areas eliminated almost all mobility. <b>Conclusions:</b> These analyses form a baseline from which to observe changes in behaviour in the UK as social distancing is eased and inform policy towards the future control of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK.
Jeffrey B, Walters CE, Ainslie KEC, et al., 2020, Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK., Wellcome Open Res, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2398-502X
Background: Since early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which have resulted in reduced mobility across different regions. Crowd level data on mobile phone usage can be used as a proxy for actual population mobility patterns and provide a way of quantifying the impact of social distancing measures on changes in mobility. Methods: Here, we use two mobile phone-based datasets (anonymised and aggregated crowd level data from O2 and from the Facebook app on mobile phones) to assess changes in average mobility, both overall and broken down into high and low population density areas, and changes in the distribution of journey lengths. Results: We show that there was a substantial overall reduction in mobility, with the most rapid decline on the 24th March 2020, the day after the Prime Minister's announcement of an enforced lockdown. The reduction in mobility was highly synchronized across the UK. Although mobility has remained low since 26th March 2020, we detect a gradual increase since that time. We also show that the two different datasets produce similar trends, albeit with some location-specific differences. We see slightly larger reductions in average mobility in high-density areas than in low-density areas, with greater variation in mobility in the high-density areas: some high-density areas eliminated almost all mobility. Conclusions: These analyses form a baseline from which to observe changes in behaviour in the UK as social distancing is eased and inform policy towards the future control of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK.
Smith TP, Flaxman S, Gallinat AS, et al., 2020, Environment influences SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of non-pharmaceutical interventions, medRxiv
Unwin HJT, Smith SE, Churcher TS, et al., 2019, MODELLING THE IMPACT OF PYRETHROID RESISTANCE ON THE MASS COMMUNITY EFFECT OF LONG-LASTING INSECTICIDE TREATED NETS, European Congress on Tropical Medicine and International Health, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, Pages: S32-S32, ISSN: 0035-9203
Unwin HJT, Wells GN, Woods AW, 2016, CO<sub>2</sub> dissolution in a background hydrological flow, JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 789, Pages: 768-784, ISSN: 0022-1120
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Culbertson H, Unwin J, Kuchenbecker KJ, 2014, Modeling and Rendering Realistic Textures from Unconstrained Tool-Surface Interactions, IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON HAPTICS, Vol: 7, Pages: 381-393, ISSN: 1939-1412
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- Citations: 107
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