Imperial College London
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Dr Juliette Unwin

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Academic Visitor
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3946h.unwin

 
 
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Location

 

UG1247 Praed StreetSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Unwin:2021:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008830,
author = {Unwin, HJT and Routledge, I and Flaxman, S and Rizoiu, M-A and Lai, S and Cohen, J and Weiss, DJ and Mishra, S and Bhatt, S},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008830},
journal = {PLoS Computational Biology},
pages = {1--18},
title = {Using Hawkes Processes to model imported and local malaria cases in near-elimination settings},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008830},
volume = {17},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Developing new methods for modelling infectious diseases outbreaks is important for monitoring transmission and developing policy. In this paper we propose using semi-mechanistic Hawkes Processes for modelling malaria transmission in near-elimination settings. Hawkes Processes are well founded mathematical methods that enable us to combine the benefits of both statistical and mechanistic models to recreate and forecast disease transmission beyond just malaria outbreak scenarios. These methods have been successfully used in numerous applications such as social media and earthquake modelling, but are not yet widespread in epidemiology. By using domain-specific knowledge, we can both recreate transmission curves for malaria in China and Eswatini and disentangle the proportion of cases which are imported from those that are community based.
AU  - Unwin,HJT
AU  - Routledge,I
AU  - Flaxman,S
AU  - Rizoiu,M-A
AU  - Lai,S
AU  - Cohen,J
AU  - Weiss,DJ
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Bhatt,S
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008830
EP  - 18
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 1553-734X
SP  - 1
TI  - Using Hawkes Processes to model imported and local malaria cases in near-elimination settings
T2  - PLoS Computational Biology
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008830
UR  - https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000636466800005&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
UR  - https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008830
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/105851
VL  - 17
ER  -
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