Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

Dr Juliette Unwin

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Academic Visitor
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3946h.unwin

 
 
//

Location

 

UG1247 Praed StreetSt Mary's Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Olney:2021:aje/kwaa293,
author = {Olney, A and Smith, J and Sen, S and Thomas, F and Unwin, H},
doi = {aje/kwaa293},
journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
pages = {1504--1509},
title = {Estimating the effect of social distancing Interventions on COVID-19 in the United States},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaa293},
volume = {190},
year = {2021}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Since its global emergence in 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused multiple epidemics in the United States. When medical treatments for the virus were still emerging and a vaccine was not yet available, state and local governments sought to limit its spread by enacting various social-distancing interventions, such as school closures and lockdowns; however, the effectiveness of these interventions was unknown. We applied an established, semimechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model of these interventions to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from Europe to the United States, using case fatalities from February 29, 2020, up to April 25, 2020, when some states began reversing their interventions. We estimated the effects of interventions across all states, contrasted the estimated reproduction numbers before and after lockdown for each state, and contrasted the predicted number of future fatalities with the actual number of fatalities as a check of the model’s validity. Overall, school closures and lockdowns were the only interventions modeled that had a reliable impact on the time-varying reproduction number, and lockdown appears to have played a key role in reducing that number to below 1.0. We conclude that reversal of lockdown without implementation of additional, equally effective interventions will enable continued, sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States.
AU  - Olney,A
AU  - Smith,J
AU  - Sen,S
AU  - Thomas,F
AU  - Unwin,H
DO  - aje/kwaa293
EP  - 1509
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0002-9262
SP  - 1504
TI  - Estimating the effect of social distancing Interventions on COVID-19 in the United States
T2  - American Journal of Epidemiology
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaa293
UR  - https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/190/8/1504/6066665
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/85388
VL  - 190
ER  -
Download