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@unpublished{Riley:2021,
author = {Riley, S and Walters, C and Wang, H and Eales, O and Haw, D and Ainslie, K and Atchison, C and Fronterre, C and Diggle, P and Ashby, D and Donnelly, C and Cooke, G and Barclay, W and Ward, H and Darzi, A and Elliott, P},
title = {REACT-1 round 9 interim report: downward trend of SARS-CoV-2 in England in February 2021 but still at high prevalence},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/86126},
year = {2021}
}

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TY  - UNPB
AB  - Background and Methods: England entered its third national lockdown of the COVID-19pandemic on 6th January 2021 with the aim of reducing the daily number of deaths andpressure on healthcare services. The real-time assessment of community transmission study(REACT-1) obtains throat and nose swabs from randomly selected people in England inorder to describe patterns of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. Here, we report data from round 9aof REACT-1 for swabs collected between 4th and 13th February 2021.Results: Out of 85,473 tested-swabs, 378 were positive. Overall weighted prevalence ofinfection in the community in England was 0.51%, a fall of more than two thirds since our lastreport (round 8) in January 2021 when 1.57% of people tested positive. We estimate ahalving time of 14.6 days and a reproduction number R of 0.72, based on the difference inprevalence between the end of round 8 and the beginning of round 9. Although prevalencefell in all nine regions of England over the same period, there was greater uncertainty in thetrend for North West, North East, and Yorkshire and The Humber. Prevalence fellsubstantially across all age groups with highest prevalence among 18- to 24-year olds at0.89% (0.47%, 1.67%) and those aged 5 to12 years at 0.86% (0.60%, 1.24%). Largehousehold size, living in a deprived neighbourhood, and Asian ethnicity were all associatedwith increased prevalence. Healthcare and care home workers were more likely to testpositive compared to other workers.Conclusions: There is a strong decline in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England among thegeneral population five to six weeks into lockdown, but prevalence remains high: at levelssimilar to those observed in late September 2020. Also, the number of COVID-19 cases inhospitals is higher than at the peak of the first wave in April 2020. The effects of easing ofsocial distancing when we transition out of lockdown need to be closely monitored to avoid aresurgence in infections and renewed pressure on health services.
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Walters,C
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - Haw,D
AU  - Ainslie,K
AU  - Atchison,C
AU  - Fronterre,C
AU  - Diggle,P
AU  - Ashby,D
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Cooke,G
AU  - Barclay,W
AU  - Ward,H
AU  - Darzi,A
AU  - Elliott,P
PY  - 2021///
TI  - REACT-1 round 9 interim report: downward trend of SARS-CoV-2 in England in February 2021 but still at high prevalence
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/86126
ER  -

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