Imperial College London
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ProfessorHelenWard

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Public Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3303h.ward Website

 
 
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Location

 

311School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Eales:2022:10.1101/2022.06.02.22275900,
author = {Eales, O and Wang, H and Haw, D and Ainslie, KEC and Walters, CE and Atchison, C and Cooke, G and Barclay, W and Ward, H and Darzi, A and Ashby, D and Donnelly, CA and Elliott, P and Riley, S},
doi = {10.1101/2022.06.02.22275900},
title = {Trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence during England’s roadmap out of lockdown, January to July 2021},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2022.06.02.22275900},
year = {2022}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Following rapidly rising COVID-19 case numbers, England entered a national lockdown on 6 January 2021, with staged relaxations of restrictions from 8 March 2021 onwards.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Aim</jats:title><jats:p>We characterise how the lockdown and subsequent easing of restrictions affected trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>On average, risk of infection is proportional to infection prevalence. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study is a repeat cross-sectional study of over 98,000 people every round (rounds approximately monthly) that estimates infection prevalence in England. We used Bayesian P-splines to estimate prevalence and the time-varying reproduction number (<jats:italic>R</jats:italic><jats:sub><jats:italic>t</jats:italic></jats:sub>) nationally, regionally and by age group from round 8 (beginning 6 January 2021) to round 13 (ending 12 July 2021) of REACT-1. As a comparator, a separate segmented-exponential model was used to quantify the impact on <jats:italic>R</jats:italic><jats:sub><jats:italic>t</jats:italic></jats:sub> of each relaxation of restrictions.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>Following an initial plateau of 1.54% until mid-January, infection prevalence decreased until 13 May when it reached a minimum of 0.09%, before increasing until the end of the study to 0.76%. Following the first easing of restrictions, which included schools reopening, the reproduction number <jats:italic>R</jats:italic><jats:sub><jats:italic>t</jats:italic></jats:sub> incre
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Haw,D
AU  - Ainslie,KEC
AU  - Walters,CE
AU  - Atchison,C
AU  - Cooke,G
AU  - Barclay,W
AU  - Ward,H
AU  - Darzi,A
AU  - Ashby,D
AU  - Donnelly,CA
AU  - Elliott,P
AU  - Riley,S
DO  - 10.1101/2022.06.02.22275900
PY  - 2022///
TI  - Trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence during England’s roadmap out of lockdown, January to July 2021
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2022.06.02.22275900
ER  -
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