Imperial College London
Alternate

Emeritus Professor Howard Wheater

Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Emeritus Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 6066h.wheater CV

 
 
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Assistant

 

Miss Judith Barritt +44 (0)20 7594 5967

 
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Location

 

229Skempton BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Hassanzadeh:2016:10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.018,
author = {Hassanzadeh, E and Elshorbagy, A and Wheater, H and Gober, P},
doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.018},
journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
pages = {291--306},
title = {A risk-based framework for water resource management under changing water availability, policy options, and irrigation expansion},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.018},
volume = {94},
year = {2016}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Long-term water resource management requires the capacity to evaluate alternative management options in the face of various sources of uncertainty in the future conditions of water resource systems. This study proposes a generic framework for determining the relative change in probabilistic characteristics of system performance as a result of changing water availability, policy options and irrigation expansion. These probabilistic characteristics can be considered to represent the risk of failure in the system performance due to the uncertainty in future conditions. Quantifying the relative change in the performance risk can provide a basis for understanding the effects of multiple changing conditions on the system behavior. This framework was applied to the water resource system of the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Saskatchewan, Canada. A “bottom-up” flow reconstruction algorithm was used to generate multiple realizations for water availability within a feasible range of change in streamflow characteristics. Consistent with observed data and projected change in streamflow characteristics, the historical streamflow was perturbed to stochastically generate feasible future flow sequences, based on various combinations of changing annual flow volume and timing of the annual peak. In addition, five alternative policy options, with and without potential irrigation expansion, were considered. All configurations of water availability, policy decisions and irrigation expansion options were fed into a hydro-economic water resource system model to obtain empirical probability distributions for system performance – here overall and sectorial net benefits – under the considered changes. Results show that no one specific policy can provide the optimal option for water resource management under all flow conditions. In addition, it was found that the joint impacts of changing water availability, policy, and irrigation expansion on system performance
AU  - Hassanzadeh,E
AU  - Elshorbagy,A
AU  - Wheater,H
AU  - Gober,P
DO  - 10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.018
EP  - 306
PY  - 2016///
SN  - 0309-1708
SP  - 291
TI  - A risk-based framework for water resource management under changing water availability, policy options, and irrigation expansion
T2  - Advances in Water Resources
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.018
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0309170816301531?via%3Dihub
VL  - 94
ER  -
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