Publications
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Collyer BS, Turner HC, Hollingsworth TD, et al., 2019, Vaccination or mass drug administration against schistosomiasis: a hypothetical cost-effectiveness modelling comparison, Parasites and Vectors, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 1756-3305
BackgroundSchistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease, targeted by the World Health Organization for reduction in morbidity by 2020. It is caused by parasitic flukes that spread through contamination of local water sources. Traditional control focuses on mass drug administration, which kills the majority of adult worms, targeted at school-aged children. However, these drugs do not confer long-term protection and there are concerns over the emergence of drug resistance. The development of a vaccine against schistosomiasis opens the potential for control methods that could generate long-lasting population-level immunity if they are cost-effective.MethodsUsing an individual-based transmission model, matched to epidemiological data, we compared the cost-effectiveness of a range of vaccination programmes against mass drug administration, across three transmission settings. Health benefit was measured by calculating the heavy-intensity infection years averted by each intervention, while vaccine costs were assessed against robust estimates for the costs of mass drug administration obtained from data. We also calculated a critical vaccination cost, a cost beyond which vaccination might not be economically favorable, by benchmarking the cost-effectiveness of potential vaccines against the cost-effectiveness of mass drug administration, and examined the effect of different vaccine protection durations.ResultsWe found that sufficiently low-priced vaccines can be more cost-effective than traditional drugs in high prevalence settings, and can lead to a greater reduction in morbidity over shorter time-scales. MDA or vaccination programmes that target the whole community generate the most health benefits, but are generally less cost-effective than those targeting children, due to lower prevalence of schistosomiasis in adults.ConclusionsThe ultimate cost-effectiveness of vaccination will be highly dependent on multiple vaccine characteristics, such as the efficacy, cost, safety
McBride A, Thuy Duong B, Chau Nguyen VV, et al., 2019, Catastrophic health care expenditure due to septic shock and dengue shock in Vietnam, Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol: 113, Pages: 649-651, ISSN: 0035-9203
BACKGROUND: The cost of treatment for infectious shock in intensive care in Vietnam is unknown. METHODS: We prospectively investigated hospital bills for adults treated for septic and dengue shock in Vietnam and calculated the proportion who faced catastrophic health care expenditures. RESULTS: The median hospital bills were US$617 for septic shock (n=100) and US$57 for dengue shock (n=88). Catastrophic payments were incurred by 47% (47/100) and 13% (11/88) of patients with septic shock and dengue shock, respectively, and 56% (25/45) and 84% (5/6) fatal cases of septic shock and dengue shock respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Further advocacy is required to moderate insurance co-payments for costly critical care interventions.
Toor J, Truscott JE, Werkman M, et al., 2019, Determining post-treatment surveillance criteria for predicting the elimination of Schistosoma mansoni transmission, Parasites and Vectors, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1756-3305
BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has set elimination (interruption of transmission) as an end goal for schistosomiasis. However, there is currently little guidance on the monitoring and evaluation strategy required once very low prevalence levels have been reached to determine whether elimination or resurgence of the disease will occur after stopping mass drug administration (MDA) treatment. METHODS: We employ a stochastic individual-based model of Schistosoma mansoni transmission and MDA impact to determine a prevalence threshold, i.e. prevalence of infection, which can be used to determine whether elimination or resurgence will occur after stopping treatment with a given probability. Simulations are run for treatment programmes with varying probabilities of achieving elimination and for settings where adults harbour low to high burdens of infection. Prevalence is measured based on using a single Kato-Katz on two samples per individual. We calculate positive predictive values (PPV) using PPV ≥ 0.9 as a reliable measure corresponding to ≥ 90% certainty of elimination. We analyse when post-treatment surveillance should be carried out to predict elimination. We also determine the number of individuals across a single community (of 500-1000 individuals) that should be sampled to predict elimination. RESULTS: We find that a prevalence threshold of 1% by single Kato-Katz on two samples per individual is optimal for predicting elimination at two years (or later) after the last round of MDA using a sample size of 200 individuals across the entire community (from all ages). This holds regardless of whether the adults have a low or high burden of infection relative to school-aged children. CONCLUSIONS: Using a prevalence threshold of 0.5% is sufficient for surveillance six months after the last round of MDA. However, as such a low prevalence can be difficult to measure in the field using Kato-Katz, we recommend using 1% two ye
Nguyen HA, Cooke GS, Day JN, et al., 2019, The direct-medical costs associated with interferon-based treatment for Hepatitis C in Vietnam., Wellcome Open Res, Vol: 4, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 2398-502X
Background: Injectable interferon-based therapies have been used to treat hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection since 1991. International guidelines have now moved away from interferon-based therapy towards direct-acting antiviral (DAA) tablet regimens, because of their superior efficacy, excellent side-effect profiles, and ease of administration. Initially DAA drugs were prohibitively expensive for most healthcare systems. Access is now improving through the procurement of low-cost, generic DAAs acquired through voluntary licenses. However, HCV treatment costs vary widely, and many countries are struggling with DAA treatment scale-up. This is not helped by the limited cost data and economic evaluations from low- and middle-income countries to support HCV policy decisions. We conducted a detailed analysis of the costs of treating chronic HCV infection with interferon-based therapy in Vietnam. Understanding these costs is important for performing necessary economic evaluations of novel treatment strategies. Methods: We conducted an analysis of the direct medical costs of treating HCV infection with interferon alpha (IFN) and pegylated-interferon alpha (Peg-IFN), in combination with ribavirin, from the health sector perspective at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, in 2017. Results: The total cost of the IFN treatment regimen was estimated to range between US$1,120 and US$1,962. The total cost of the Peg-IFN treatment regimen was between US$2,156 and US$5,887. Drug expenses were the biggest contributor to the total treatment cost (54-89%) and were much higher for the Peg-IFN regimen. Conclusions: We found that treating HCV with IFN or Peg-IFN resulted in significant direct medical costs. Of concern, we found that all patients incurred substantial out-of-pocket costs, including those receiving the maximum level of support from the national health insurance programme. This cost data highlights the potential savings and importance of increased acc
Toor J, Truscott JE, Werkman M, et al., 2019, BREAKING TRANSMISSION FOR <i>SCHISTOSOMA MANSONI</i>: DETERMINING POST-TREATMENT SURVEILLANCE CRITERIA FOR DETECTING ELIMINATION, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, Pages: S53-S53, ISSN: 0035-9203
Turner HC, Lauer JA, Tran BX, et al., 2019, Adjusting for inflation and currency changes within health economic studies, Value in Health, Vol: 22, Pages: 1026-1032, ISSN: 1098-3015
OBJECTIVES: Within health economic studies, it is often necessary to adjust costs obtained from different time periods for inflation. Nevertheless, many studies do not report the methods used for this in sufficient detail. In this article, we outline the principal methods used to adjust for inflation, with a focus on studies relating to healthcare interventions in low- and middle-income countries. We also discuss issues relating to converting local currencies to international dollars and US$ and adjusting cost data collected from other countries or previous studies. METHODS: We outlined the 3 main methods used to adjust for inflation for studies in these settings: exchanging the local currency to US$ or international dollars and then inflating using US inflation rates (method 1); inflating the local currency using local inflation rates and then exchanging to US$ or international dollars (method 2); splitting the costs into tradable and nontradable resources and using method 1 on the tradable resources and method 2 on the nontradable resources (method 3). RESULTS: In a hypothetical example of adjusting a cost of US$100 incurred in Vietnam from 2006 to 2016 prices, the adjusted cost from the 3 methods were US$116.84, US$172.09, and US$161.04, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The different methods for adjusting for inflation can yield substantially different results. We make recommendations regarding the most appropriate method for various scenarios. Moving forward, it is vital that studies report the methodology they use to adjust for inflation more transparently.
Hung TM, Wills B, Clapham HE, et al., 2019, The uncertainty surrounding the burden of post-acute consequences of dengue infection, Trends in Parasitology, Vol: 35, Pages: 673-676, ISSN: 0169-4758
Post-acute consequences currently form a significant component of the dengue disability-adjusted life year (DALY) burden estimates. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the incidence, duration, and severity of these symptoms. Further research is needed to more accurately estimate the health and economic burden of these dengue manifestations.
Carrique-Mas J, Van Cuong N, Truong BD, et al., 2019, Affordability of antimicrobials for animals and humans in Vietnam: A call to revise pricing policies, International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, Vol: 54, Pages: 269-270, ISSN: 0924-8579
Turner HC, Walker M, Pion SDS, et al., 2019, Economic evaluations of onchocerciasis interventions: a systematic review and research needs, Tropical Medicine and International Health, Vol: 24, Pages: 788-816, ISSN: 1360-2276
ObjectiveTo provide a systematic review of economic evaluations that has been conducted for onchocerciasis interventions, to summarise current key knowledge and to identify research gaps.MethodA systematic review of the literature was conducted on the 8th of August 2018 using the PubMed (MEDLINE) and ISI Web of Science electronic databases. No date or language stipulations were applied to the searches.ResultsWe identified 14 primary studies reporting the results of economic evaluations of onchocerciasis interventions, seven of which were cost‐effectiveness analyses. The studies identified used a variety of different approaches to estimate the costs of the investigated interventions/programmes. Originally, the studies only quantified the benefits associated with preventing blindness. Gradually, methods improved and also captured onchocerciasis‐associated skin disease. Studies found that eliminating onchocerciasis would generate billions in economic benefits. The majority of the cost‐effectiveness analyses evaluated annual mass drug administration (MDA). The estimated cost per disability‐adjusted life year (DALY) averted of annual MDA varies between US$3 and US$30 (cost year variable).ConclusionsThe cost benefit and cost effectiveness of onchocerciasis interventions have consistently been found to be very favourable. This finding provides strong evidential support for the ongoing efforts to eliminate onchocerciasis from endemic areas. Although these results are very promising, there are several important research gaps that need to be addressed as we move towards the 2020 milestones and beyond.
Nhan LNT, Turner HC, Khanh TH, et al., 2019, Economic burden attributed to children presenting to hospitals with hand, foot, and mouth disease in Vietnam, Open Forum Infectious Diseases, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2328-8957
BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has become a major public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region. Knowledge of its economic burden is essential for policy makers in prioritizing the development and implementation of interventions. METHODS: A multi-hospital-based study was prospectively conducted at 3 major hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, during 2016-2017. Data on direct and productivity costs were collected alongside clinical information and samples and demographic information from study participants. RESULTS: A total of 466 patients were enrolled. Two hundred three of 466 (43.6%) patients lived in Ho Chi Minh City, and 72/466 (15.5%) had severe HFMD. An enterovirus was identified in 74% of 466 patients, with EV-A71, CV-A6, CV-A10, and CV-A16 being the most common viruses identified (236/466, 50.6%). The mean economic burden per case was estimated at US$400.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], $353.80-$448.90), of which the total direct (medical) costs accounted for 69.7%. There were considerable differences in direct medical costs between groups of patients with different clinical severities and pathogens (ie, EV-A71 vs non-EV-A71). In Vietnam, during 2016-2017, the economic burden posed by HFMD was US$90 761 749 (95% CI, $79 033 973-$103 009 756). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are of public health significance because for the first time we demonstrate that HFMD causes a substantial economic burden in Vietnam, and although multivalent vaccines are required to control HFMD, effective EV-A71 vaccine could substantially reduce the burden posed by severe HFMD. The results will be helpful for health policy makers in prioritizing resources for the development and implementation of intervention strategies to reduce the burden of HFMD.
Turner HC, Nguyen VH, Yacoub S, et al., 2019, Achieving affordable critical care in low-income and middle-income countries, BMJ Global Health, Vol: 4, Pages: 1-4, ISSN: 2059-7908
Huong VTL, Turner HC, Kinh NV, et al., 2019, Burden of disease and economic impact of human Streptococcus suis infection in Viet Nam, Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol: 113, Pages: 341-350, ISSN: 0035-9203
BACKGROUND: Streptococcus suis is a zoonotic disease mainly affecting men of working age and can result in death or long-term sequelae, including severe hearing loss and vestibular dysfunction. We aimed to quantify the burden of disease and economic impact of this infection in Viet Nam. METHODS: The annual disease incidence for the period 2011-2014 was estimated based on surveillance data using a multiple imputation approach. We calculated disease burden in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and economic costs using an incidence-based approach from a patient's perspective and including direct and indirect impacts of S. suis infection and its long-term sequelae. RESULTS: The estimated annual incidence rate was 0.318, 0.324, 0.255 and 0.249 cases per 100 000 population in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively. The corresponding DALYs lost were 1832, 1866, 1467 and 1437. The mean direct cost per episode was US$1635 (95% confidence interval 1352-1923). The annual direct cost was US$370 000-500 000 and the indirect cost was US$2.27-2.88 million in this time period. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed a large disease burden and high economic impact of S. suis infection and provides important data for disease monitoring and control.
Turner HC, Toor J, Bettis AA, et al., 2019, Valuing the unpaid contribution of community health volunteers to mass drug administration programs, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 68, Pages: 1588-1595, ISSN: 1058-4838
Community health volunteers (CHVs) are being used within a growing number of healthcare interventions, and they have become a cornerstone for the delivery of mass drug administration within many neglected tropical disease control programs. However, a greater understanding of the methods used to value the unpaid time CHVs contribute to healthcare programs is needed. We outline the two main approaches used to value CHVs' unpaid time (the opportunity cost and the replacement cost approaches). We found that for mass drug administration programs the estimates of the economic costs relating to the CHVs' unpaid time can be significant, with the averages of the different studies varying between US$0.05-0.16 per treatment. We estimated that the time donated by CHVs' to the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control alone would be valued between US$60-90 million. There is a need for greater transparency and consistency in the methods used to value CHVs' unpaid time.
Toor J, Truscott JE, Werkman M, et al., 2019, POST-TREATMENT SURVEILLANCE CRITERIA FOR <i>SCHISTOSOMA MANSONI</i>: WILL ELIMINATION OR RESURGENCE OCCUR AFTER STOPPING MASS DRUG ADMINISTRATION?, 68th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-for-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 371-371, ISSN: 0002-9637
Loan HT, Yen LM, Kestelyn E, et al., 2018, Intrathecal Immunoglobulin for treatment of adult patients with tetanus: A randomized controlled 2x2 factorial trial, Wellcome Open Research, Vol: 3, ISSN: 2398-502X
Despite long-standing availability of an effective vaccine, tetanus remains a significant problem in many countries. Outcome depends on access to mechanical ventilation and intensive care facilities and in settings where these are limited, mortality remains high. Administration of tetanus antitoxin by the intramuscular route is recommended treatment for tetanus, but as the tetanus toxin acts within the central nervous system, it has been suggested that intrathecal administration of antitoxin may be beneficial. Previous studies have indicated benefit, but with the exception of one small trial no blinded studies have been performed. The objective of this study is to establish whether the addition of intrathecal tetanus antitoxin reduces the need for mechanical ventilation in patients with tetanus. Secondary objectives: to determine whether the addition of intrathecal tetanus antitoxin reduces autonomic nervous system dysfunction and length of hospital/ intensive care unit stay; whether the addition of intrathecal tetanus antitoxin in the treatment of tetanus is safe and cost-effective; to provide data to inform recommendation of human rather than equine antitoxin. This study will enroll adult patients (≥16 years old) with tetanus admitted to the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City. The study is a 2x2 factorial blinded randomized controlled trial. Eligible patients will be randomized in a 1:1:1:1 manner to the four treatment arms (intrathecal treatment and human intramuscular treatment, intrathecal treatment and equine intramuscular treatment, sham procedure and human intramuscular treatment, sham procedure and equine intramuscular treatment). Primary outcome measure will be requirement for mechanical ventilation. Secondary outcome measures: duration of hospital/ intensive care unit stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, in-hospital and 240-day mortality and disability, new antibiotic prescription, incidence of ventilator associated pneumonia and aut
Dat VQ, Huong VTL, Turner HC, et al., 2018, Excess direct hospital cost of treating adult patients with ventilator associated respiratory infection (VARI) in Vietnam, PLoS One, Vol: 13, ISSN: 1932-6203
INTRODUCTION: Ventilator associated respiratory infections (VARIs) are the most common hospital acquired infections in critical care worldwide. This work aims to estimate the total annual direct hospital cost of treating VARI throughout Vietnam. METHODS: A costing model was constructed to evaluate the excess cost of diagnostics and treatment of VARI in Vietnam. Model inputs included costs for extra lengths of stay, diagnostics, VARI incidence, utilisation of ventilators and antibiotic therapy. RESULTS: With the current VARI incidence rate of 21.7 episodes per 1000 ventilation-days, we estimated 34,428 VARI episodes in the 577 critical care units in Vietnam per year. The extra cost per VARI episode was $1,174.90 and the total annual excess cost was US$40.4 million. A 1% absolute reduction in VARI incidence density would save US$1.86 million annually. For each episode of VARI, the share of excess cost components was 45.1% for critical care unit stay and ventilation, 3.7% for diagnostics and 51.1% for extra antimicrobial treatment. CONCLUSIONS: At the current annual government health expenditure of US$117 per capita, VARI represents a substantial cost to the health service in Vietnam. Enhanced infection prevention and control and antimicrobial stewardship programmes should be implemented to reduce this.
Toor J, Turner HC, Truscott JE, et al., 2018, The design of schistosomiasis monitoring and evaluation programmes: The importance of collecting adult data to inform treatment strategies for Schistosoma mansoni, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1935-2727
Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) programmes are used to collect data which are required to assess the impact of current interventions on their progress towards achieving the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of morbidity control and elimination as a public health problem for schistosomiasis. Prevalence and intensity of infection data are typically collected from school-aged children (SAC) as they are relatively easy to sample and are thought to be most likely to be infected by schistosome parasites. However, adults are also likely to be infected. We use three different age-intensity profiles of infection for Schistosoma mansoni with low, moderate and high burdens of infection in adults to investigate how the age distribution of infection impacts the mathematical model generated recommendations of the preventive chemotherapy coverage levels required to achieve the WHO goals. We find that for moderate prevalence regions, regardless of the burden of infection in adults, treating SAC only may achieve the WHO goals. However, for high prevalence regions with a high burden of infection in adults, adult treatment is required to meet the WHO goals. Hence, we show that the optimal treatment strategy for a defined region requires consideration of the burden of infection in adults as it cannot be based solely on the prevalence of infection in SAC. Although past epidemiological data have informed mathematical models for the transmission and control of schistosome infections, more accurate and detailed data are required from M&E programmes to accurately determine the optimal treatment strategy for a defined region. We highlight the importance of collecting prevalence and intensity of infection data from a broader age-range, specifically the inclusion of adult data at baseline (prior to treatment) and throughout the treatment programme if possible, rather than SAC only, to accurately determine the treatment strategy for a defined region. Furthermore, we discuss addition
Hung TM, Clapham HE, Bettis AA, et al., 2018, The estimates of the health and economic burden of dengue in Vietnam, Trends in Parasitology, Vol: 34, Pages: 904-918, ISSN: 0169-4758
Dengue has been estimated to cause a substantial health and economic burden in Vietnam. The most recent studies have estimated that it is responsible for 39884 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) annually, representing an economic burden of US$94.87 million per year (in 2016 prices). However, there are alternative burden estimates that are notably lower. This variation is predominantly due to differences in how the number of symptomatic dengue cases is estimated. Understanding the methodology of these burden calculations is vital when interpreting health economic analyses of dengue. This review aims to provide an overview of the health and economic burden estimates of dengue in Vietnam. We also highlight important research gaps for future studies.
Turner HC, Thwaites GE, Clapham HE, 2018, Vaccine-preventable diseases in lower-middle-income countries, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 18, Pages: 937-939, ISSN: 1473-3099
Turner HC, Wills BA, Rahman M, et al., 2018, Projected costs associated with school-based screening to inform deployment of Dengvaxia: Vietnam as a case study, Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol: 112, Pages: 369-377, ISSN: 0035-9203
Background: After new analysis, Sanofi Pasteur now recommends their dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) should only be given to individuals previously infected with dengue and the World Health Organization's recommendations regarding its use are currently being revised. As a result, the potential costs of performing large-scale individual dengue screening and/or dengue serosurveys have become an important consideration for decision making by policymakers in dengue-endemic areas. Methods: We used an ingredients-based approach to estimate the financial costs for conducting both a school-based dengue serosurvey and school-based individual dengue screening within a typical province in Vietnam, using an existing commercial indirect immunoglobulin G enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit. This costing is hypothetical and based on estimates regarding the resources that would be required to perform such activities. Results: We estimated that performing a school-based individual screening of 9-year-olds would cost US$9.25 per child tested or US$197,827 in total for a typical province. We also estimated that a school-based serosurvey would cost US$10,074, assuming one class from each of the grades that include 8- to 11-year-olds are sampled at each of the 12 selected schools across the province. Conclusions: The study indicates that using this vaccine safely on a large-scale will incur noteworthy operational costs. It is crucial that these be considered in future cost-effectiveness analyses informing how and where the vaccine is deployed.
Toor J, Alsallaq R, Truscott JE, et al., 2018, Are We on Our Way to Achieving the 2020 Goals for Schistosomiasis Morbidity Control Using Current World Health Organization Guidelines?, CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 66, Pages: S245-S252, ISSN: 1058-4838
BackgroundSchistosomiasis remains an endemic parasitic disease affecting millions of people around the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set goals of controlling morbidity to be reached by 2020, along with elimination as a public health problem in certain regions by 2025. Mathematical models of parasite transmission and treatment impact have been developed to assist in controlling the morbidity caused by schistosomiasis. These models can inform and guide implementation policy for mass drug administration programs, and help design monitoring and evaluation activities.MethodsWe use these models to predict whether the guidelines set by the WHO are on track for achieving their 2020 goal for the control of morbidity, specifically for Schistosoma mansoni. We examine whether programmatic adaptations; namely increases in treatment coverage and/or expansion to adult inclusion in treatment, will improve the likelihood of reaching the WHO goals.ResultsWe find that in low-prevalence settings, the goals are likely to be attainable under current WHO guidelines, but in moderate to high-prevalence settings, the goals are less likely to be achieved unless treatment coverage is increased and expanded to at least 85% for school-aged children and 40% for adults.ConclusionsTo improve the likelihood of reaching the WHO goals, programmatic adaptations are required, particularly for moderate- to high-prevalence settings. Furthermore, improvements in adherence to treatment, potential development of candidate vaccines, and enhanced snail control and WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) measures will all assist in achieving the goals.
Turner HC, Toor J, Hollingsworth TD, et al., 2018, Economic evaluations of mass drug administration: the importance of economies of scale and scope, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 66, Pages: 1298-1303, ISSN: 1058-4838
It is recognized that changing the current approaches for the control of the neglected tropical diseases will be needed to reach the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 2020 goals. Consequently, it is important that economic evaluations of the alternative approaches are conducted. A vital component of such evaluations is the issue of how the intervention’s costs should be incorporated. We discuss this issue—focusing on mass drug administration. We argue that the common approach of assuming an intervention’s cost per treatment is constant, regardless of the number of individuals treated, is a misleading way to consider the delivery costs of mass drug administration due to the occurrence of economies/diseconomies of scale and scope. Greater care and consideration are required when the costs are incorporated into such analyses. Without this, these economic evaluations could potentially lead to incorrect policy recommendations.
Gedge LM, Bettis AA, Bradley MH, et al., 2018, Economic evaluations of lymphatic filariasis interventions: a systematic review and research needs, PARASITES & VECTORS, Vol: 11, ISSN: 1756-3305
In 2000, the World Health Organization established the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF), with the goal of eliminating the disease as a public health problem by 2020. Since the start of the programme, a cumulative total of 6.2 billion treatments have been delivered to affected populations - with more than 556 million people treated in 2015 alone. In this paper, we perform a rigorous systematic review of the economic evaluations of lymphatic filariasis interventions have been conducted. We demonstrate that the standard interventions to control lymphatic filariasis are consistently found to be highly cost-effective. This finding has important implications for advocacy groups and potential funders. However, there are several important inconsistencies and research gaps that need to be addressed as we move forward towards the 2020 elimination goals. One of the most important identified research gaps was a lack of evaluation of new interventions specifically targeting areas co-endemic with onchocerciasis and Loa loa - which could become a major barrier to achieving elimination.
Bundy DAP, Appleby LJ, Bradley M, et al., 2018, 100 Years of Mass Deworming Programmes: A Policy Perspective From the World Bank's <i>Disease Control Priorities Analyses</i>, ADVANCES IN PARASITOLOGY, VOL 100, Editors: Rollinson, Stothard, Publisher: ELSEVIER ACADEMIC PRESS INC, Pages: 127-154
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Toor J, Turner H, Truscott J, et al., 2018, SCHISTOSOMIASIS MONITORING AND EVALUATION PROGRAMS: THE IMPORTANCE OF COLLECTING ADULT DATA TO INFORM TREATMENT STRATEGIES FOR <it>SCHISTOSOMA MANSONI</it>, 67th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTHM), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 20-20, ISSN: 0002-9637
Knowles SCL, Sturrock HJW, Turner H, et al., 2017, Optimising cluster survey design for planning schistosomiasis preventive chemotherapy, PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol: 11, ISSN: 1935-2735
BackgroundThe cornerstone of current schistosomiasis control programmes is delivery of praziquantel to at-risk populations. Such preventive chemotherapy requires accurate information on the geographic distribution of infection, yet the performance of alternative survey designs for estimating prevalence and converting this into treatment decisions has not been thoroughly evaluated.Methodology/Principal findingsWe used baseline schistosomiasis mapping surveys from three countries (Malawi, Côte d’Ivoire and Liberia) to generate spatially realistic gold standard datasets, against which we tested alternative two-stage cluster survey designs. We assessed how sampling different numbers of schools per district (2–20) and children per school (10–50) influences the accuracy of prevalence estimates and treatment class assignment, and we compared survey cost-efficiency using data from Malawi. Due to the focal nature of schistosomiasis, up to 53% simulated surveys involving 2–5 schools per district failed to detect schistosomiasis in low endemicity areas (1–10% prevalence). Increasing the number of schools surveyed per district improved treatment class assignment far more than increasing the number of children sampled per school. For Malawi, surveys of 15 schools per district and 20–30 children per school reliably detected endemic schistosomiasis and maximised cost-efficiency. In sensitivity analyses where treatment costs and the country considered were varied, optimal survey size was remarkably consistent, with cost-efficiency maximised at 15–20 schools per district.Conclusions/SignificanceAmong two-stage cluster surveys for schistosomiasis, our simulations indicated that surveying 15–20 schools per district and 20–30 children per school optimised cost-efficiency and minimised the risk of under-treatment, with surveys involving more schools of greater cost-efficiency as treatment costs rose.
Turner HC, Truscott JE, Bettis AA, et al., 2017, Evaluating the variation in the projected benefit of community-wide mass treatment for schistosomiasis: Implications for future economic evaluations, PARASITES & VECTORS, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1756-3305
Background:The majority of schistosomiasis control programmes focus on targeting school-aged children. Expanding the use of community-wide mass treatment to reach more adults is under consideration. However, it should be noted that this would require a further increase in programmatic resources, international aid, and commitment for the provision of praziquantel. Consequently, it is important to understand (i) where a change of strategy would have the greatest benefit, and (ii) how generalisable the conclusions of field trials and analytical studies based on mathematical models investigating the impact of community-wide mass treatment, are to a broad range of settings.Methods:In this paper, we employ a previously described deterministic fully age-structured schistosomiasis transmission model and evaluate the benefit of community-wide mass treatment both in terms of controlling morbidity and eliminating transmission for Schistosoma mansoni, across a wide range of epidemiological settings and programmatic scenarios. This included variation in the baseline relative worm pre-control burden in adults, the overall level of transmission in defined settings, choice of effectiveness metric (basing morbidity calculations on prevalence or intensity), the level of school enrolment and treatment compliance.Results:Community-wide mass treatment was found to be more effective for controlling the transmission of schistosome parasites than using a school-based programme only targeting school-aged children. However, in the context of morbidity control, the potential benefit of switching to community-wide mass treatment was highly variable across the different scenarios analysed. In contrast, for areas where the goal is to eliminate transmission, the projected benefit of community-wide mass treatment was more consistent.Conclusion:Whether community-wide mass treatment is appropriate will depend on the local epidemiological setting (i.e. the relative pre-control burden in adults and tr
Turner HC, Bettis AA, Chu BK, et al., 2017, Investment success in public health: an analysis of the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of the global programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 64, Pages: 728-735, ISSN: 1058-4838
Background.It has been estimated that $154 million per year will be required during 2015–2020 to continue the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF). In light of this, it is important to understand the program’s current value. Here, we evaluate the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of the preventive chemotherapy that was provided under the GPELF between 2000 and 2014. In addition, we also investigate the potential cost-effectiveness of hydrocele surgery.Methods.Our economic evaluation of preventive chemotherapy was based on previously published health and economic impact estimates (between 2000 and 2014). The delivery costs of treatment were estimated using a model developed by the World Health Organization. We also developed a model to investigate the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by a hydrocelectomy and identified the cost threshold under which it would be considered cost-effective.Results.The projected cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of preventive chemotherapy were very promising, and this was robust over a wide range of costs and assumptions. When the economic value of the donated drugs was not included, the GPELF would be classed as highly cost-effective. We projected that a typical hydrocelectomy would be classed as highly cost-effective if the surgery cost less than $66 and cost-effective if less than $398 (based on the World Bank’s cost-effectiveness thresholds for low income countries).Conclusions.Both the preventive chemotherapy and hydrocele surgeries provided under the GPELF are incredibly cost-effective and offer a very good investment in public health.
Coffeng LE, Truscott JE, Farrell SH, et al., 2017, Comparison and validation of two mathematical models for the impact of mass drug administration on Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworm infection, Epidemics, Vol: 18, Pages: 38-47, ISSN: 1755-4365
The predictions of two mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworm infection and the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) are compared, using data from India. One model has an age structured partial differential equation (PDE) deterministic framework for the distribution of parasite numbers per host and sexual mating. The second model is an individual-based stochastic model. Baseline data acquired prior to treatment are used to estimate key transmission parameters, and forward projections are made, given the known MDA population coverage. Predictions are compared with observed post-treatment epidemiological patterns. The two models could equally well predict the short-term impact of deworming on A. lumbricoides and hookworm infection levels, despite being fitted to different subsets and/or summary statistics of the data. As such, the outcomes give confidence in their use as aids to policy formulation for the use of PCT to control A. lumbricoides and hookworm infection. The models further largely agree in a qualitative sense on the added benefit of semi-annual vs. annual deworming and targeting of the entire population vs. only children, as well as the potential for interruption of transmission. Further, this study also illustrates that long-term predictions are sensitive to modelling assumptions about which age groups contribute most to transmission, which depends on human demography and age-patterns in exposure and contribution to the environmental reservoir of infection, the latter being notoriously difficult to empirically quantify.
Truscott JE, Gurarie D, Alsallaq R, et al., 2017, A comparison of two mathematical models of the impact of mass drug administration on the transmission and control of schistosomiasis, Epidemics, Vol: 18, Pages: 29-37, ISSN: 1878-0067
The predictions of two mathematical models describing the transmission dynamics of schistosome infection and the impact of mass drug administration are compared. The models differ in their description of the dynamics of the parasites within the host population and in their representation of the stages of the parasite lifecycle outside of the host. Key parameters are estimated from data collected in northern Mozambique from 2011 to 2015. This type of data set is valuable for model validation as treatment prior to the study was minimal. Predictions from both models are compared with each other and with epidemiological observations. Both models have difficulty matching both the intensity and prevalence of disease in the datasets and are only partially successful at predicting the impact of treatment. The models also differ from each other in their predictions, both quantitatively and qualitatively, of the long-term impact of 10 years’ school-based mass drug administration. We trace the dynamical differences back to basic assumptions about worm aggregation, force of infection and the dynamics of the parasite in the snail population in the two models and suggest data which could discriminate between them. We also discuss limitations with the datasets used and ways in which data collection could be improved.
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