Imperial College London

DrIsobelBlake

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3260isobel.blake

 
 
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Location

 

G26Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@techreport{Flaxman:2020:10.25561/77731,
author = {Flaxman, S and Mishra, S and Gandy, A and Unwin, H and Coupland, H and Mellan, T and Zhu, H and Berah, T and Eaton, J and Perez, Guzman P and Schmit, N and Cilloni, L and Ainslie, K and Baguelin, M and Blake, I and Boonyasiri, A and Boyd, O and Cattarino, L and Ciavarella, C and Cooper, L and Cucunuba, Perez Z and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Dighe, A and Djaafara, A and Dorigatti, I and van, Elsland S and Fitzjohn, R and Fu, H and Gaythorpe, K and Geidelberg, L and Grassly, N and Green, W and Hallett, T and Hamlet, A and Hinsley, W and Jeffrey, B and Jorgensen, D and Knock, E and Laydon, D and Nedjati, Gilani G and Nouvellet, P and Parag, K and Siveroni, I and Thompson, H and Verity, R and Volz, E and Walters, C and Wang, H and Wang, Y and Watson, O and Winskill, P and Xi, X and Whittaker, C and Walker, P and Ghani, A and Donnelly, C and Riley, S and Okell, L and Vollmer, M and Ferguson, N and Bhatt, S},
doi = {10.25561/77731},
title = {Report 13: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/77731},
year = {2020}
}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - RPRT
AB - Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe is now experiencing large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, widescale social distancing including local and national lockdowns. In this report, we use a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to attempt to infer the impact of these interventions across 11 European countries. Our methods assume that changes in the reproductive number – a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from the deaths observed over time to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. One of the key assumptions of the model is that each intervention has the same effect on the reproduction number across countries and over time. This allows us to leverage a greater amount of data across Europe to estimate these effects. It also means that our results are driven strongly by the data from countries with more advanced epidemics, and earlier interventions, such as Italy and Spain. We find that the slowing growth in daily reported deaths in Italy is consistent with a significant impact of interventions implemented several weeks earlier. In Italy, we estimate that the effective reproduction number, Rt, dropped to close to 1 around the time of lockdown (11th March), although with a high level of uncertainty. Overall, we estimate that countries have managed to reduce their reproduction number. Our estimates have wide credible intervals and contain 1 for countries that have implemented all interventions considered in our analysis. This means that the reproducti
AU - Flaxman,S
AU - Mishra,S
AU - Gandy,A
AU - Unwin,H
AU - Coupland,H
AU - Mellan,T
AU - Zhu,H
AU - Berah,T
AU - Eaton,J
AU - Perez,Guzman P
AU - Schmit,N
AU - Cilloni,L
AU - Ainslie,K
AU - Baguelin,M
AU - Blake,I
AU - Boonyasiri,A
AU - Boyd,O
AU - Cattarino,L
AU - Ciavarella,C
AU - Cooper,L
AU - Cucunuba,Perez Z
AU - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU - Dighe,A
AU - Djaafara,A
AU - Dorigatti,I
AU - van,Elsland S
AU - Fitzjohn,R
AU - Fu,H
AU - Gaythorpe,K
AU - Geidelberg,L
AU - Grassly,N
AU - Green,W
AU - Hallett,T
AU - Hamlet,A
AU - Hinsley,W
AU - Jeffrey,B
AU - Jorgensen,D
AU - Knock,E
AU - Laydon,D
AU - Nedjati,Gilani G
AU - Nouvellet,P
AU - Parag,K
AU - Siveroni,I
AU - Thompson,H
AU - Verity,R
AU - Volz,E
AU - Walters,C
AU - Wang,H
AU - Wang,Y
AU - Watson,O
AU - Winskill,P
AU - Xi,X
AU - Whittaker,C
AU - Walker,P
AU - Ghani,A
AU - Donnelly,C
AU - Riley,S
AU - Okell,L
AU - Vollmer,M
AU - Ferguson,N
AU - Bhatt,S
DO - 10.25561/77731
PY - 2020///
TI - Report 13: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/77731
UR - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-30-COVID19-Report-13.pdf
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/77731
ER -