Imperial College London

DrIsobelBlake

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3260isobel.blake

 
 
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Location

 

G26Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Koukounari:2013:aje/kws345,
author = {Koukounari, A and Moustaki, I and Grassly, NC and Blake, IM and Basanez, M-G and Gambhir, M and Mabey, DCW and Bailey, RL and Burton, MJ and Solomon, AW and Donnelly, CA},
doi = {aje/kws345},
journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
pages = {913--922},
title = {Using a Nonparametric Multilevel Latent Markov Model to Evaluate Diagnostics for Trachoma},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws345},
volume = {177},
year = {2013}
}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB - In disease control or elimination programs, diagnostics are essential for assessing the impact of interventions, refining treatment strategies, and minimizing the waste of scarce resources. Although high-performance tests are desirable, increased accuracy is frequently accompanied by a requirement for more elaborate infrastructure, which is often not feasible in the developing world. These challenges are pertinent to mapping, impact monitoring, and surveillance in trachoma elimination programs. To help inform rational design of diagnostics for trachoma elimination, we outline a nonparametric multilevel latent Markov modeling approach and apply it to 2 longitudinal cohort studies of trachoma-endemic communities in Tanzania (2000–2002) and The Gambia (2001–2002) to provide simultaneous inferences about the true population prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and disease and the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of 3 diagnostic tests for C. trachomatis infection. Estimates were obtained by using data collected before and after mass azithromycin administration. Such estimates are particularly important for trachoma because of the absence of a true “gold standard” diagnostic test for C. trachomatis. Estimated transition probabilities provide useful insights into key epidemiologic questions about the persistence of disease and the clearance of infection as well as the required frequency of surveillance in the postelimination setting.
AU - Koukounari,A
AU - Moustaki,I
AU - Grassly,NC
AU - Blake,IM
AU - Basanez,M-G
AU - Gambhir,M
AU - Mabey,DCW
AU - Bailey,RL
AU - Burton,MJ
AU - Solomon,AW
AU - Donnelly,CA
DO - aje/kws345
EP - 922
PY - 2013///
SN - 0002-9262
SP - 913
TI - Using a Nonparametric Multilevel Latent Markov Model to Evaluate Diagnostics for Trachoma
T2 - American Journal of Epidemiology
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws345
UR - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000318576300009&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/48887
VL - 177
ER -