Imperial College London

Dr Jonathan M Clarke

Faculty of Natural SciencesDepartment of Mathematics

Sir Henry Wellcome Postdoctoral Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

j.clarke Website

 
 
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Location

 

St Marys Multiple BuildingsSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

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120 results found

Beaney T, Clarke J, Woodcock T, Majeed A, Barahona M, Aylin Pet al., 2024, Effect of timeframes to define long term conditions and sociodemographic factors on prevalence of multimorbidity using disease code frequency in primary care electronic health records: retrospective study., BMJ Med, Vol: 3

OBJECTIVE: To determine the extent to which the choice of timeframe used to define a long term condition affects the prevalence of multimorbidity and whether this varies with sociodemographic factors. DESIGN: Retrospective study of disease code frequency in primary care electronic health records. DATA SOURCES: Routinely collected, general practice, electronic health record data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum were used. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Adults (≥18 years) in England who were registered in the database on 1 January 2020 were included. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more conditions from a set of 212 long term conditions. Multimorbidity prevalence was compared using five definitions. Any disease code recorded in the electronic health records for 212 conditions was used as the reference definition. Additionally, alternative definitions for 41 conditions requiring multiple codes (where a single disease code could indicate an acute condition) or a single code for the remaining 171 conditions were as follows: two codes at least three months apart; two codes at least 12 months apart; three codes within any 12 month period; and any code in the past 12 months. Mixed effects regression was used to calculate the expected change in multimorbidity status and number of long term conditions according to each definition and associations with patient age, gender, ethnic group, and socioeconomic deprivation. RESULTS: 9 718 573 people were included in the study, of whom 7 183 662 (73.9%) met the definition of multimorbidity where a single code was sufficient to define a long term condition. Variation was substantial in the prevalence according to timeframe used, ranging from 41.4% (n=4 023 023) for three codes in any 12 month period, to 55.2% (n=5 366 285) for two codes at least three months apart. Younger people (eg, 50-75% probability for 18-29 years v 1-10% for ≥80 years), people of some minority ethnic groups

Journal article

Beaney T, Clarke J, Woodcock T, Majeed F, Barahona M, Aylin Pet al., 2023, Impact and inequalities in the prevalence of multimorbidity using different timeframes to define long term conditions: a retrospective study of disease code frequency in primary care electronic healthcare records, BMJ Medicine, ISSN: 2754-0413

Objective:Multimorbidity is a priority for health systems globally. We aimed to determine the extent to which the choice of timeframe used to define a long-term condition (LTC) impacts on the prevalence of multimorbidity and whether this varies with socio-demographic factors.Methods and Analysis:We used routinely collected general practice electronic healthcare record (EHR) data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum for patients in England aged 18 years or over registered on 01/01/2020. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more conditions from a set of 212 LTCs. We compared multimorbidity prevalence using a single code representing a disease diagnosis recorded anywhere in the EHR for each LTC, to prevalence based on four different timeframes for disease duration for 37 conditions where a single disease code could indicate an acute condition: 1) 2 codes at least 3 months apart; 2) two codes at least 12 months apart; 3) 3 codes within any 12-month period; 4) Any code in the last 12 months. We used mixed effects regression to calculate the expected change in multimorbidity status and number of LTCs according to each definition and associations with patient age, gender, ethnicity and socio-economic deprivation.Results:9,718,573 people were included in the study, of whom 73.9% met the definition of multimorbidity where a single code was sufficient to define an LTC. There was substantial variation in the prevalence according to timeframe used, ranging from 41.4% for three codes in the last twelve months, to 55.2% for two codes at least three months apart. Younger people, people of some minority ethnic groups and people living in areas of lower socioeconomic deprivation are more likely to be re-classified as not multimorbid when using definitions requiring multiple codes.Conclusions:Choice of timeframe to define LTCs has a substantial impact on the prevalence of multimorbidity in this nationally representative sample. Different timeframes im

Journal article

Schindler D, Clarke J, Barahona M, 2023, Multiscale mobility patterns and the restriction of human movement, Royal Society Open Science, Vol: 10, Pages: 230405-230405, ISSN: 2054-5703

From the perspective of human mobility, the COVID-19 pandemic constituted a natural experiment of enormous reach in space and time. Here, we analyse the inherent multiple scales of human mobility using Facebook Movement maps collected before and during the first UK lockdown. Firstly, we obtain the pre-lockdown UK mobility graph and employ multiscale community detection to extract, in an unsupervised manner, a set of robust partitions into flow communities at different levels of coarseness. The partitions so obtained capture intrinsic mobility scales with better coverage than nomenclature of territorial units for statistics (NUTS) regions, which suffer from mismatches between human mobility and administrative divisions. Furthermore, the flow communities in the fine-scale partition not only match well the UK travel to work areas but also capture mobility patterns beyond commuting to work. We also examine the evolution of mobility under lockdown and show that mobility first reverted towards fine-scale flow communities already found in the pre-lockdown data, and then expanded back towards coarser flow communities as restrictions were lifted. The improved coverage induced by lockdown is well captured by a linear decay shock model, which allows us to quantify regional differences in both the strength of the effect and the recovery time from the lockdown shock.

Journal article

Beaney T, Clarke J, Salman D, Woodcock T, Majeed F, Barahona M, Aylin Pet al., 2023, Identifying potential biases in code sequences in primary care electronic healthcare records: a retrospective cohort study of the determinants of code frequency, BMJ Open, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2044-6055

Objectives To determine whether the frequency of diagnostic codes for long-term conditions (LTCs) in primary care electronic healthcare records (EHRs) is associated with (1) disease coding incentives, (2) General Practice (GP), (3) patient sociodemographic characteristics and (4) calendar year of diagnosis.Design Retrospective cohort study.Setting GPs in England from 2015 to 2022 contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum dataset.Participants All patients registered to a GP with at least one incident LTC diagnosed between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2019.Primary and secondary outcome measures The number of diagnostic codes for an LTC in (1) the first and (2) the second year following diagnosis, stratified by inclusion in the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) financial incentive programme.Results 3 113 724 patients were included, with 7 723 365 incident LTCs. Conditions included in QOF had higher rates of annual coding than conditions not included in QOF (1.03 vs 0.32 per year, p<0.0001). There was significant variation in code frequency by GP which was not explained by patient sociodemographics. We found significant associations with patient sociodemographics, with a trend towards higher coding rates in people living in areas of higher deprivation for both QOF and non-QOF conditions. Code frequency was lower for conditions with follow-up time in 2020, associated with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.Conclusions The frequency of diagnostic codes for newly diagnosed LTCs is influenced by factors including patient sociodemographics, disease inclusion in QOF, GP practice and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Natural language processing or other methods using temporally ordered code sequences should account for these factors to minimise potential bias.

Journal article

Lugo-Palacios DG, Clarke JM, Kristensen SR, 2023, Back to basics: A mediation analysis approach to addressing the fundamental questions of integrated care evaluations, HEALTH ECONOMICS, Vol: 32, Pages: 2080-2097, ISSN: 1057-9230

Journal article

Clarke J, Rohenkohl B, 2023, What do we know about automation at work and workers' wellbeing? Literature review

Rapid technological advances are profoundly changing the world of work. The introduction of automation technologies in the workplace has complex direct and indirect impacts on work activities and the wellbeing of workers. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive review of the emerging literature on the impact of new automation technologies on workers’ subjective wellbeing. We specifically examine the evidence on (i) automation risk, (ii) the expectations and fears surrounding automation and (iii) the adoption of automation technologies, and how they can influence workers’ job satisfaction and life satisfaction.Taken together, the findings from this literature are mixed and largely depend on the type of technology examined. Studies reveal great variation in the impacts across different occupations and industries. While many studies focus on investigating negative consequences of automation technologies, our review suggests that there is potential for both positive and negative effects on wellbeing to coexist. As much remains unknown, we identify possible avenues for future research to further explore this complex relationship, notably, the need for a broader, more holistic approach to the assessment of both risks and impacts to ensure successful adoption from the perspective of enhancement of worker wellbeing.

Report

Li E, Lounsbury O, Clarke J, Ashrafian H, Darzi A, Neves ALet al., 2023, Perceptions of chief clinical information officers on the state of electronic health records systems interoperability in NHS England: a qualitative interview study, BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, Vol: 23, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 1472-6947

BackgroundIn the era of electronic health records (EHR), the ability to share clinical data is a key facilitator of healthcare delivery. Since the introduction of EHRs, this aspect has been extensively studied from the perspective of healthcare providers. Less often explored are the day-to-day challenges surrounding the procurement, deployment, maintenance, and use of interoperable EHR systems, from the perspective of healthcare administrators, such as chief clinical information officers (CCIOs).ObjectiveOur study aims to capture the perceptions of CCIOs on the current state of EHR interoperability in the NHS, its impact on patient safety, the perceived facilitators and barriers to improving EHR interoperability, and what the future of EHR development in the NHS may entail.MethodsSemi-structured interviews were conducted between November 2020 – October 2021. Convenience sampling was employed to recruit NHS England CCIOs. Interviews were digitally recorded and transcribed verbatim. A thematic analysis was performed by two independent researchers to identify emerging themes.ResultsFifteen CCIOs participated in the study. Participants reported that limited EHR interoperability contributed to the inability to easily access and transfer data into a unified source, thus resulting in data fragmentation. The resulting lack of clarity on patients' health status negatively impacts patient safety through suboptimal care coordination, duplication of efforts, and more defensive practice. Facilitators to improving interoperability included the recognition of the need by clinicians, patient expectations, and the inherent centralised nature of the NHS. Barriers included systems usability difficulties, and institutional, data management, and financial-related challenges. Looking ahead, participants acknowledged that realising that vision across the NHS would require a renewed focus on mandating data standards, user-centred design, greater patient involvement, and encouraging i

Journal article

Koldeweij C, Clarke J, Rodriguez Gonzalvez C, Nijman J, Maconochie I, Appelbaum Net al., 2023, MAPPING VARIATION BETWEEN NATIONAL AND LOCAL CLINICAL PRACTICE GUIDELINES FOR ACUTE PAEDIATRIC ASTHMA FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM AND THE NETHERLANDS, Publisher: BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, Pages: A12-A12, ISSN: 0003-9888

Conference paper

Gujjuri RM, Clarke JA, Elliott JA, Rahman SV, Reynolds JB, Hanna GR, Markar S, ENSURE SGet al., 2023, Predicting Long-term Survival and Time-to-recurrence After Esophagectomy in Patients With Esophageal Cancer Development and Validation of a Multivariate Prediction Model, ANNALS OF SURGERY, Vol: 277, Pages: 971-978, ISSN: 0003-4932

Journal article

Koldeweij C, Clarke J, Gonzalvez CR, Nijman J, Maconochie I, Appelbaum Net al., 2023, MAPPING VARIATION BETWEEN NATIONAL AND LOCAL CLINICAL PRACTICE GUIDELINES FOR ACUTE PAEDIATRIC ASTHMA FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM AND THE NETHERLANDS, Publisher: BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, Pages: A12-A12, ISSN: 0003-9888

Conference paper

Beaney T, Clarke J, Alboksmaty A, Flott K, Fowler A, Benger J, Aylin P, Elkin S, Darzi A, Neves Aet al., 2023, Evaluating the impact of a pulse oximetry remote monitoring programme on mortality and healthcare utilisation in patients with COVID-19 assessed in Emergency Departments in England: a retrospective matched cohort study, Emergency Medicine Journal, Vol: 40, Pages: 460-465, ISSN: 1472-0205

Background:To identify the impact of a national pulse oximetry remote monitoring programme for COVID-19 (COVID Oximetry @home; CO@h) on health service use and mortality in patients attending Emergency Departments (EDs).Methods:We conducted a retrospective matched cohort study of patients enrolled onto the CO@h pathway from EDs in England. We included all patients with a positive COVID-19 test from 1st October 2020 to 3rd May 2021 who attended ED from three days before to ten days after the date of the test. All patients who were admitted or died on the same or following day to the first ED attendance within the time window were excluded. In the primary analysis, participants enrolled onto CO@h were matched using demographic and clinical criteria to participants who were not enrolled. Five outcome measures were examined within 28 days of first ED attendance: i) death from any cause; ii) any subsequent ED attendance; iii) any emergency hospital admission; iv) critical care admission; and v) length of stay.Results:15,621 participants were included in the primary analysis, of whom 639 were enrolled onto CO@h and 14,982 were controls. Odds of death were 52% lower in those enrolled (95% CI: 7%-75% lower) compared to those not enrolled on CO@h. Odds of any ED attendance or admission were 37% (95% CI: 16-63%) and 59% (95% CI: 16-63%) higher, respectively, in those enrolled. Of those admitted, those enrolled had 53% (95% CI: 7%-76%) lower odds of critical care admission. There was no significant impact on length of stay.Conclusions:These findings indicate that for patients assessed in ED, pulse oximetry remote monitoring may be a clinically effective and safe model for early detection of hypoxia and escalation. However, possible selection biases might limit the generalisability to other populations.

Journal article

Clarke J, Beaney T, Alboksmaty A, Flott K, Ashrafian H, Fowler A, Benger JR, Aylin P, Elkin S, Neves AL, Darzi Aet al., 2023, Factors associated with enrolment into a national COVID-19 pulse oximetry remote monitoring programme in England: a retrospective observational study, The Lancet: Digital Health, Vol: 5, Pages: e194-e205, ISSN: 2589-7500

BACKGROUND: Hypoxaemia is an important predictor of severity in individuals with COVID-19 and can present without symptoms. The COVID Oximetry @home (CO@h) programme was implemented across England in November, 2020, providing pulse oximeters to higher-risk people with COVID-19 to enable early detection of deterioration and the need for escalation of care. We aimed to describe the clinical and demographic characteristics of individuals enrolled onto the programme and to assess whether there were any inequalities in enrolment. METHODS: This retrospective observational study was based on data from a cohort of people resident in England recorded as having a positive COVID-19 test between Oct 1, 2020, and May 3, 2021. The proportion of participants enrolled onto the CO@h programmes in the 7 days before and 28 days after a positive COVID-19 test was calculated for each clinical commissioning group (CCG) in England. Two-level hierarchical multivariable logistic regression with random intercepts for each CCG was run to identify factors predictive of being enrolled onto the CO@h programme. FINDINGS: CO@h programme sites were reported by NHS England as becoming operational between Nov 21 and Dec 31, 2020. 1 227 405 people resident in 72 CCGs had a positive COVID-19 test between the date of programme implementation and May 3, 2021, of whom 19 932 (1·6%) were enrolled onto the CO@h programme. Of those enrolled, 14 441 (72·5%) were aged 50 years or older or were identified as clinically extremely vulnerable (ie, having a high-risk medical condition). Higher odds of enrolment onto the CO@h programme were found in older individuals (adjusted odds ratio 2·21 [95% CI 2·19-2·23], p<0·001, for those aged 50-64 years; 3·48 [3·33-3·63], p<0·001, for those aged 65-79 years; and 2·50 [2·34-2·68], p<0·001, for those aged ≥80 years), in individuals of non-White ethnicity (1·3

Journal article

Beaney T, Clarke J, 2022, Home oxygen monitoring and therapy: learning from the pandemic, Current Opinion in Critical Care

Journal article

Beaney T, Kerr G, Hayhoe B, Majeed F, Clarke Jet al., 2022, Comparing registered and resident populations in Primary Care Networks in England: an observational study, BJGP Open, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2398-3795

BackgroundPrimary Care Networks (PCNs) were established in England in 2019 and will play a key role in providing care at a neighbourhood level within Integrated Care Systems (ICSs).AimTo identify PCN ‘catchment’ areas and compare the overlap between registered and resident populations of PCNs.Design and SettingObservational study using publicly available data on the number of people within each Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) registered to each General Practice (GP) in England in April 2021.MethodLSOAs were assigned to the PCN to which the majority of residents were registered. The PCN catchment population was defined as the total number of people resident in all LSOAs assigned to that PCN. We compared PCN catchment populations to the population of people registered to a GP practice in each PCN.ResultsIn April 2021, 6,506 GP practices were part of 1,251 PCNs. 56.1% of PCNs had between 30,000 and 50,000 registered patients. There was a strong correlation (0.91) between the total registered population size and catchment population size. We found significant variation in the percentage of residents in each LSOA registered to a GP practice within the same PCN catchment, and strong associations with both urban-rural status and socioeconomic deprivation.ConclusionThere exists significant variation across England in the overlap between registered and resident (catchment) populations in PCNs which may impact on integration of care in some areas. There was less overlap in urban and more deprived areas which could exacerbate existing health inequalities.

Journal article

Alboksmaty A, Beaney T, Elkin S, Clarke J, Darzi A, Aylin P, Neves ALet al., 2022, Effectiveness and safety of pulse oximetry in remote patient monitoring of patients with COVID-19, European Journal of Public Health, Vol: 32, Pages: 1-1, ISSN: 1101-1262

ContextA surge of COVID cases globally is often portrayed as “very likely”, which overwhelms health systems and challenges their capacities. A mitigation strategy is seen by remotely monitoring COVID patients in out-of-hospital settings to determine the risk of deterioration.Description of the problemWe need an indicator to enable remote monitoring of COVID patients at home that can be measured by a handy tool; pulse oximetry which measures peripheral blood oxygen saturation (SpO2). Evidence shows that SpO2 is a reliable indicator of deterioration among COVID patients. The UK initiated a national programme (COVID Oximetry @ Home (CO@H)) to assess the theory. The concept can be potentially applied in other countries in various settings. As part of CO@H, we conducted a systematic review of the evidence on the safety and effectiveness of pulse oximetry in remote monitoring of COVID patients.ResultsOur review confirms the safety and potential effectiveness of pulse oximetry in remote home monitoring among COVID patients. We identified 13 research projects involving 2,908 participants that assessed the proposed strategy. Evidence shows the need to monitor at-rest and post-exertional SpO2. At-rest SpO2 of ≤ 92% or a decrease of 5% or more in post-exertional SpO2 should indicate care escalation. The recommended method for measuring at-rest SpO2 is after 5-10 min of rest, and assessing post-exertional SpO2 is after conducting a 1-min sit-to-stand test. We could not find explicit evidence on the impact on health service use compared with other models of care.LessonsRemote monitoring of COVID patients could alleviate the pressure on health systems and save hospital resources. Monitoring SpO2 by pulse oximetry can be widely applied, including in resource-limited settings, as the tool is affordable, reliable, and easy to use.Key messages• Adopting relevant health technologies in remote patient monitoring is critical to combat the pandemic.• Pu

Journal article

Jain V, Clarke J, Beaney T, 2022, Association between democratic governance and excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study, JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH, Vol: 76, Pages: 853-860, ISSN: 0143-005X

Journal article

Li E, Clarke J, Ashrafian H, Darzi A, Neves ALet al., 2022, Impact of electronic health record interoperability on safety and quality of care in high-income countries: A systematic review, Journal of Medical Internet Research, Vol: 24, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 1438-8871

Background: Electronic health records (EHR) and poor systems interoperability are well-known issues in the use of health information technologies worldwide in most high-income countries. Despite the abundance of literature exploring their relationship, its practical implications on patient safety and quality of care remain unclear.Objective: To examine how EHR interoperability affects patient safety, or other dimensions of care quality, in high-income healthcare settings. Methods: A systematic search was conducted using four online medical journal repositories and grey literature sources. Publications included were published in English between 2010-2022, pertaining to EHR use, interoperability, and patient safety or care quality in high-income settings. Screening was completed by three researchers in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews (PRISMA) guidelines. Risk of bias assessments was performed using the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomised Studies - of Interventions (ROBINS-I) and the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 (RoB2) tools. Findings were presented as a narrative synthesis and mapped based on the Institute of Medicine’s framework for healthcare quality.Results: Twelve studies met the inclusion criteria to be included in our review. Findings were categorised into six common outcome measure categories: patient safety events, medication safety, data accuracy and errors, care effectiveness, productivity, and cost-savings. EHR interoperability was found to positively influence medication safety, reduce patient safety events, and lower costs. Improvements to time-savings and clinical workflow are mixed. However, true measures of effect are difficult to determine with certainty due to the heterogeneity in outcome measures used and notable variation in study quality.Conclusion: The benefits of EHR interoperability on the quality and safety of care remain unclear and reflect the extensive heterogeneity in the interventions, designs, and outcome

Journal article

Koldeweij C, Appelbaum N, Rodriguez Gonzalvez C, Nijman J, Nijman R, Sinha R, Maconochie I, Clarke Jet al., 2022, Mind the gap: Mapping variation between national and local clinical practice guidelines for acute paediatric asthma from the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, PLoS One, Vol: 17, ISSN: 1932-6203

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) aim to standardize clinical care. Increasingly, hospitals rely on locally produced guidelines alongside national guidance. This study examines variation between national and local CPGs, using the example of acute paediatric asthma guidance from the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. METHODS: Fifteen British and Dutch local CPGs were collected with the matching national guidance for the management of acute asthma in children under 18 years old. The drug sequences, routes and methods of administration recommended for patients with severe asthma and the tone of recommendation across both types of CPGs were schematically represented. Deviations from national guidance were measured. Variation in recommended doses of intravenous salbutamol was examined. CPG quality was assessed using the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE) II. RESULTS: British and Dutch national CPGs differed in the recommended drug choices, sequences, routes and methods of administration for severe asthma. Dutch national guidance was more rigidly defined. Local British CPGs diverged from national guidance for 23% of their recommended interventions compared to 8% for Dutch local CPGs. Five British local guidelines and two Dutch local guidelines differed from national guidance for multiple treatment steps. Variation in second-line recommendations was greater than for first-line recommendations across local CPGs from both countries. Recommended starting doses for salbutamol infusions varied by more than tenfold. The quality of the sampled local CPGs was low across all AGREE II domains. CONCLUSIONS: Local CPGs for the management of severe acute paediatric asthma featured substantial variation and frequently diverged from national guidance. Although limited to one condition, this study suggests that unmeasured variation across local CPGs may contribute to variation of care more broadly, with possible effects on healthcare quality.

Journal article

Sivan M, Greenhalgh T, Darbyshire JL, Mir G, O'Connor RJ, Dawes H, Greenwood D, O'Connor D, Horton M, Petrou S, de Lusignan S, Curcin V, Mayer E, Casson A, Milne R, Rayner C, Smith N, Parkin A, Preston N, Delaney Bet al., 2022, LOng COvid Multidisciplinary consortium Optimising Treatments and services acrOss the NHS (LOCOMOTION): protocol for a mixed-methods study in the UK, BMJ OPEN, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2044-6055

Journal article

Beaney T, Neves AL, Alboksmaty A, Ashrafian H, Flott K, Fowler A, Benger J, Aylin P, Elkin S, Darzi A, Clarke Jet al., 2022, Trends and associated factors for Covid-19 hospitalisation and fatality risk in 2.3 million adults in England, Nature Communications, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 2041-1723

The Covid-19 mortality rate varies between countries and over time but the extent to which this is explained by the underlying risk in those infected is unclear. Using data on all adults in England with a positive Covid-19 test between 1st October 2020 and 30th April 2021 linked to clinical records, we examined trends and risk factors for hospital admission and mortality. Of 2,311,282 people included in the study, 164,046 (7.1%) were admitted and 53,156 (2.3%) died within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test. We found significant variation in the case hospitalisation and mortality risk over time, which remained after accounting for the underlying risk of those infected. Older age groups, males, those resident in areas of greater socioeconomic deprivation, and those with obesity had higher odds of admission and death. People with severe mental illness and learning disability had the highest odds of admission and death. Our findings highlight both the role of external factors in Covid-19 admission and mortality risk and the need for more proactive care in the most vulnerable groups.

Journal article

Beaney T, Clarke J, Alboksmaty A, Flott K, Fowler A, Benger J, Aylin P, Elkin S, Neves AL, Darzi Aet al., 2022, Population level impact of a pulse oximetry remote monitoring programme on mortality and healthcare utilisation in the people with COVID-19 in England: a national analysis using a stepped wedge design, Emergency Medicine Journal, Vol: 39, ISSN: 1472-0205

BackgroundTo identify the population level impact of a national pulse oximetry remote monitoring programme for COVID-19 (COVID Oximetry @home; CO@h) in England on mortality and health service use.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study using a stepped wedge pre- and post- implementation design, including all 106 Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in England implementing a local CO@h programme. All symptomatic people with a positive COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction test result from 1st October 2020 to 3rd May 2021, and who were aged ≥65 years or identified as clinically extremely vulnerable were included. Care home residents were excluded. A pre-intervention period before implementation of the CO@h programme in each CCG was compared to a post-intervention period after implementation. Five outcome measures within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test: i) death from any cause; ii) any ED attendance; iii) any emergency hospital admission; iv) critical care admission; and v) total length of hospital stay.Results217,650 people were eligible and included in the analysis. Total enrolment onto the programme was low, with enrolment data received for only 5,527 (2.5%) of the eligible population. The period of implementation of the programme was not associated with mortality or length of hospital stay. The period of implementation was associated with increased health service utilisation with a 12% increase in the odds of ED attendance (95% CI: 6%-18%) and emergency hospital admission (95% CI: 5%-20%) and a 24% increase in the odds of critical care admission in those admitted (95% CI: 5%-47%). In a secondary analysis of CO@h sites with at least 10% or 20% of eligible people enrolled, there was no significant association with any outcome measure. ConclusionAt a population level, there was no association with mortality before and after the implementation period of the CO@h programme, and small increases in health service utilisation were observed. However, lower than

Journal article

Alboksmaty A, Beaney T, Elkin S, Clarke J, Darzi A, Aylin P, Neves Aet al., 2022, Effectiveness and safety of pulse oximetry in remote patient monitoring of patients with COVID-19: a systematic review, The Lancet Digital Health, Vol: 4, Pages: e279-e289, ISSN: 2589-7500

The COVID-19 pandemic has led health systems to increase the use of tools for monitoring and triaging patients remotely. This study aims to assess the effectiveness and safety of pulse oximetry in Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM) of COVID-19 patients at home. We conducted a systematic review, searching five databases, Medline, Embase, Global Health, medRxiv, and bioRxiv, from inception to April 15, 2021. We included feasibility studies, clinical trials, observational studies, including preprints. We found 561 studies, of which 13 were included in our synthesis. The final studies were all observational cohorts and involved a total of 2,908 participants. A meta-analysis was not feasible due to the heterogeneity of the outcomes reported in the included studies. Our review confirmed the safety and potential of using pulse oximetry in monitoring COVID-19 patients at home. It can potentially save hospital resources for those who may benefit most from care escalation. However, we could not identify explicit evidence on the impact on health outcomes compared with other monitoring models that have not used pulse oximetry. Based on our findings, we make 11 recommendations and three measures for setting up an RPM system using pulse oximetry.

Journal article

Clarke J, Beaney T, Majeed A, 2022, UK scales back routine covid-19 surveillance, BMJ: British Medical Journal, Vol: 376, Pages: 1-2, ISSN: 0959-535X

Journal article

Kwakye MA, Raj S, York T, 2022, 36Predicting Long-Term Survival and Time-to-Recurrence After Oesophagectomy in Patients with Oesophageal Cancer, ASiT Surgical Innovation Summit - Future Surgery Show, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, ISSN: 0007-1323

Conference paper

Gujjuri R, Clarke J, Elliot J, Reynolds J, Markar Set al., 2022, 36Predicting Long-Term Survival and Time-to-Recurrence After Oesophagectomy in Patients with Oesophageal Cancer, ASiT Surgical Innovation Summit - Future Surgery Show, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, ISSN: 0007-1323

Conference paper

O'Brien N, van Dael J, Clarke J, Gardner C, O'Shaughnessy J, Darzi A, Ghafur Set al., 2022, Addressing racial and ethnic inequities in data-driven health technologies, Publisher: Institute of Global Health Innovation, Imperial College London

Report

Beaney T, Clarke J, Grundy E, Coronini-Cronberg Set al., 2022, A Picture of Health: determining the core population served by an urban NHS hospital trust and understanding the key health needs, BMC Public Health, Vol: 22, ISSN: 1471-2458

Background: NHS hospitals do not have clearly defined geographic populations to whom they provide care, with patients able to attend any hospital. Identifying a core population for a hospital trust, particularly those in urban areas where there are multiple providers and high population churn, is critical to understanding local key health needs especially given the move to integrated care systems. This can enable effective planning and delivery of preventive interventions and community engagement, rather than simply treating those presenting to services. In this article we describe a practical method for identifying a hospital’s catchment population based on where potential patients are most likely to reside, and describe that population’s size, demographic and social profile, and the key health needs. Methods: A 30% proportional flow method was used to identify a catchment population using an acute trust in West London as an example. Records of all hospital attendances between 1st April 2017 and 31st March 2018 were analysed using Hospital Episode Statistics. Any Lower Layer Super Output Areas where 30% or more of residents who attended any hospital for care did so at the example trust were assigned to the catchment area. Publicly available local and national datasets were then applied to identify and describe the population’s key health needs. Results: A catchment comprising 617,709 people, of an equal gender-split (50.4% male) and predominantly working age (15 to 64 years) population was identified. 39.6% of residents identify as being from Black and Minority Ethnic (BAME) groups, a similar proportion that report being born abroad, and over 85 languages are spoken. Health indicators were estimated, including: a healthy life expectancy difference of over twenty years; bowel cancer screening coverage of 48.8%; chlamydia diagnosis rates of 2,136 per 100,000; prevalence of visible dental decay among five-year-olds of 27.9%. Conclusions: We define

Journal article

Beaney T, Clarke J, Woodcock T, McCarthy R, Saravanakumar K, Barahona M, Blair M, Hargreaves Det al., 2021, Patterns of healthcare utilisation in children and young people: a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected healthcare data in Northwest London, BMJ Open, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 2044-6055

ObjectivesWith a growing role for health services in managing population health, there is a need for early identification of populations with high need. Segmentation approaches partition the population based on demographics, long-term conditions (LTCs) or healthcare utilisation but have mostly been applied to adults. Our study uses segmentation methods to distinguish patterns of healthcare utilisation in children and young people (CYP) and to explore predictors of segment membership.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingRoutinely collected primary and secondary healthcare data in Northwest London from the Discover database.Participants378,309 CYP aged 0-15 years registered to a general practice in Northwest London with one full year of follow-up.Primary and secondary outcome measuresAssignment of each participant to a segment defined by seven healthcare variables representing primary and secondary care attendances, and description of utilisation patterns by segment. Predictors of segment membership described by age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation and LTCs.ResultsParticipants were grouped into six segments based on healthcare utilisation. Three segments predominantly used primary care; two moderate utilisation segments differed in use of emergency or elective care, and a high utilisation segment, representing 16,632 (4.4%) children accounted for the highest mean presentations across all service types. The two smallest segments, representing 13.3% of the population, accounted for 62.5% of total costs. Younger age, residence in areas of higher deprivation, and presence of one or more LTCs were associated with membership of higher utilisation segments, but 75.0% of those in the highest utilisation segment had no LTC.ConclusionsThis article identifies six segments of healthcare utilisation in CYP and predictors of segment membership. Demographics and LTCs may not explain utilisation patterns as strongly as in adults which may limit the use of routine data in predicting ut

Journal article

Gujjuri RR, Clarke JM, Elliot JA, Reynolds JV, Markar SRet al., 2021, Development and validation of multivariate prediction model of long-term survival after oesophagectomy in patients with oesophageal cancer, UGI Congress, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, ISSN: 0007-1323

Conference paper

Beaney T, Neves AL, Alboksmaty A, Flott K, Fowler A, Benger JR, Aylin P, Elkin S, Darzi A, Clarke Jet al., 2021, Trends and associated factors for Covid-19 hospitalisation and fatality risk in 2.3 million adults in England

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>The Covid-19 case fatality ratio varies between countries and over time but it is unclear whether variation is explained by the underlying risk in those infected. This study aims to describe the trends and risk factors for admission and mortality rates over time in England.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>In this retrospective cohort study, we included all adults (≥18 years) in England with a positive Covid-19 test result between 1<jats:sup>st</jats:sup>October 2020 and 30<jats:sup>th</jats:sup>April 2021. Data were linked to primary and secondary care electronic health records and death registrations. Our outcomes were i) one or more emergency hospital admissions and ii) death from any cause, within 28 days of a positive test. Multivariable multilevel logistic regression was used to model each outcome with patient risk factors and time.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>2,311,282 people were included in the study, of whom 164,046 (7.1%) were admitted and 53,156 (2.3%) died within 28 days. There was significant variation in the case hospitalisation and mortality risk over time, peaking in December 2020-February 2021, which remained after adjustment for individual risk factors. Older age groups, males, those resident in more deprived areas, and those with obesity had higher odds of admission and mortality. Of risk factors examined, severe mental illness and learning disability had the highest odds of admission and mortality.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions</jats:title><jats:p>In one of the largest studies of nationally representative Covid-19 risk factors, case hospitalisation and mortality risk varied significantly over ti

Working paper

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