Imperial College London

Dr Jake Dunning

Faculty of MedicineNational Heart & Lung Institute

Honorary Senior Clinical Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3853j.dunning Website

 
 
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Assistant

 

Ms Gale Lewis +44 (0)20 7594 0944

 
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Location

 

370Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

113 results found

Read JM, Green CA, Harrison EM, Docherty AB, Funk S, Harrison J, Girvan M, Hardwick HE, Turtle L, Dunning J, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Openshaw PJM, Baillie JK, Semple MGet al., 2021, Hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection in the UK's first COVID-19 pandemic wave, The Lancet, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Russell CD, Fairfield CJ, Drake TM, Turtle L, Seaton RA, Wootton DG, Sigfrid L, Harrison EM, Docherty AB, de Silva T, Egan C, Pius R, Hardwick HE, Merson L, Girvan M, Dunning J, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Openshaw PJM, Baillie JK, Semple MG, Ho Aet al., 2021, Co-infections, secondary infections, and antimicrobial use in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 during the first pandemic wave from the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study: a multicentre, prospective cohort study, The Lancet Microbe, Vol: 2, Pages: E354-E365, ISSN: 2666-5247

BackgroundMicrobiological characterisation of co-infections and secondary infections in patients with COVID-19 is lacking, and antimicrobial use is high. We aimed to describe microbiologically confirmed co-infections and secondary infections, and antimicrobial use, in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.MethodsThe International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study is an ongoing, prospective cohort study recruiting inpatients from 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales, conducted by the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium. Patients with a confirmed or clinician-defined high likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection were eligible for inclusion in the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study. For this specific study, we excluded patients with a recorded negative SARS-CoV-2 test result and those without a recorded outcome at 28 days after admission. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, therapeutic, and outcome data were collected using a prespecified case report form. Organisms considered clinically insignificant were excluded.FindingsWe analysed data from 48 902 patients admitted to hospital between Feb 6 and June 8, 2020. The median patient age was 74 years (IQR 59–84) and 20 786 (42·6%) of 48 765 patients were female. Microbiological investigations were recorded for 8649 (17·7%) of 48 902 patients, with clinically significant COVID-19-related respiratory or bloodstream culture results recorded for 1107 patients. 762 (70·6%) of 1080 infections were secondary, occurring more than 2 days after hospital admission. Staphylococcus aureus and Haemophilus influenzae were the most common pathogens causing respiratory co-infections (diagnosed ≤2 days after admission), with Enterobacteriaceae and S aureus most common in secondary respiratory infections. Bloodstream infections were most frequently caused by Escherichia coli a

Journal article

Pottage T, Garratt I, Onianwa O, Spencer A, Paton S, Verlander NQ, Dunning J, Bennett Aet al., 2021, A comparison of persistence of SARS-CoV-2 variants on stainless steel., J Hosp Infect, Vol: 114, Pages: 163-166

The survival of newer variants of SARS-CoV-2 on a representative surface has been compared to the established UK circulating isolate to determine whether enhanced environmental stability could play a part in their increased transmissibility. Stainless steel coupons were inoculated with liquid cultures of the three variants, with coupons recovered over seven days and processed for recoverable viable virus using plaque assay. After drying, there was no significant difference in inactivation rates between variants, indicating that there is no increased environmental persistence from the new variants.

Journal article

Drake TM, Riad AM, Fairfield CJ, Egan C, Knight SR, Pius R, Hardwick HE, Norman L, Shaw CA, McLean KA, Thompson AAR, Ho A, Swann OV, Sullivan M, Soares F, Holden KA, Merson L, Plotkin D, Sigfrid L, de Silva TI, Girvan M, Jackson C, Russell CD, Dunning J, Solomon T, Carson G, Olliaro P, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Turtle L, Docherty AB, Openshaw PJ, Baillie JK, Harrison EM, Semple MG, ISARIC4C investigatorset al., 2021, Characterisation of in-hospital complications associated with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK: a prospective, multicentre cohort study, The Lancet, Vol: 398, Pages: 223-237, ISSN: 0140-6736

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a multisystem disease and patients who survive might have in-hospital complications. These complications are likely to have important short-term and long-term consequences for patients, health-care utilisation, health-care system preparedness, and society amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Our aim was to characterise the extent and effect of COVID-19 complications, particularly in those who survive, using the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK. METHODS: We did a prospective, multicentre cohort study in 302 UK health-care facilities. Adult patients aged 19 years or older, with confirmed or highly suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to COVID-19 were included in the study. The primary outcome of this study was the incidence of in-hospital complications, defined as organ-specific diagnoses occurring alone or in addition to any hallmarks of COVID-19 illness. We used multilevel logistic regression and survival models to explore associations between these outcomes and in-hospital complications, age, and pre-existing comorbidities. FINDINGS: Between Jan 17 and Aug 4, 2020, 80 388 patients were included in the study. Of the patients admitted to hospital for management of COVID-19, 49·7% (36 367 of 73 197) had at least one complication. The mean age of our cohort was 71·1 years (SD 18·7), with 56·0% (41 025 of 73 197) being male and 81·0% (59 289 of 73 197) having at least one comorbidity. Males and those aged older than 60 years were most likely to have a complication (aged ≥60 years: 54·5% [16 579 of 30 416] in males and 48·2% [11 707 of 24 288] in females; aged <60 years: 48·8% [5179 of 10 609] in males and 36·6% [2814 of 7689] in females). Renal (24·3%, 17 752 of 73 197), complex respiratory (18·4%, 13 486 of 73 197), and systemic (16·3%, 11 895 of 73 197) complications were

Journal article

Drake TM, Fairfield CJ, Pius R, Knight SR, Norman L, Girvan M, Hardwick HE, Docherty AB, Thwaites RS, Openshaw PJM, Baillie JK, Harrison EM, Semple MG, ISARIC4C Investigatorset al., 2021, Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and outcomes of COVID-19 in the ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK cohort: a matched, prospective cohort study, The Lancet Rheumatology, Vol: 3, Pages: e498-e506, ISSN: 2665-9913

Background: Early in the pandemic it was suggested that pre-existing use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) could lead to increased disease severity in patients with COVID-19. NSAIDs are an important analgesic, particularly in those with rheumatological disease, and are widely available to the general public without prescription. Evidence from community studies, administrative data, and small studies of hospitalised patients suggest NSAIDs are not associated with poorer COVID-19 outcomes. We aimed to characterise the safety of NSAIDs and identify whether pre-existing NSAID use was associated with increased severity of COVID-19 disease. Methods: This prospective, multicentre cohort study included patients of any age admitted to hospital with a confirmed or highly suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to COVID-19 between Jan 17 and Aug 10, 2020. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, and secondary outcomes were disease severity at presentation, admission to critical care, receipt of invasive ventilation, receipt of non-invasive ventilation, use of supplementary oxygen, and acute kidney injury. NSAID use was required to be within the 2 weeks before hospital admission. We used logistic regression to estimate the effects of NSAIDs and adjust for confounding variables. We used propensity score matching to further estimate effects of NSAIDS while accounting for covariate differences in populations. Results: Between Jan 17 and Aug 10, 2020, we enrolled 78 674 patients across 255 health-care facilities in England, Scotland, and Wales. 72 179 patients had death outcomes available for matching; 40 406 (56·2%) of 71 915 were men, 31 509 (43·8%) were women. In this cohort, 4211 (5·8%) patients were recorded as taking systemic NSAIDs before admission to hospital. Following propensity score matching, balanced groups of NSAIDs users and NSAIDs non-users were obtained (4205 patients in each group). At hospital admission, we observed no si

Journal article

Crozier A, Dunning J, Rajan S, Semple MG, Buchan IEet al., 2021, Could expanding the covid-19 case definition improve the UK's pandemic response?, BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 374, ISSN: 1756-1833

Journal article

Bloom CI, Drake TM, Docherty AB, Lipworth BJ, Johnston SL, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Carson G, Dunning J, Harrison EM, Baillie JK, Semple MG, Cullinan P, Openshaw PJM, Alex B, Bach B, Barclay WS, Bogaert D, Chand M, Cooke GS, Filipe AD, Fletcher T, Green CA, Harrison EM, Hiscox JA, Ho AY, Horby PW, Ijaz S, Khoo S, Klenerman P, Law A, Lim WS, Mentzer AJ, Merson L, Meynert AM, Noursadeghi M, Moore SC, Palmarini M, Paxton WA, Pollakis G, Price N, Rambaut A, Robertson DL, Russell CD, Sancho-Shimizu V, Scott JT, Silva TD, Sigfrid L, Solomon T, Sriskandan S, Stuart D, Summers C, Tedder RS, Thomson EC, Thompson AAR, Thwaites RS, Turtle LCW, Zambon M, Hardwick H, Donohue C, Lyons R, Griffiths F, Oosthuyzen W, Norman L, Pius R, Fairfield CJ, Knight SR, Mclean KA, Murphy D, Shaw CA, Dalton J, Girvan M, Saviciute E, Roberts S, Harrison J, Marsh L, Connor M, Halpin S, Jackson C, Gamble C, Leeming G, Law A, Wham M, Clohisey S, Hendry R, Scott-Brown J, Greenhalf W, Shaw V, McDonald S, Keating S, Ahmed KA, Armstrong JA, Ashworth M, Asiimwe IG, Bakshi S, Barlow SL, Booth L, Brennan B, Bullock K, Catterall BWA, Clark JJ, Clarke EA, Cole S, Cooper L, Cox H, Davis C, Dincarslan O, Dunn C, Dyer P, Elliott A, Evans A, Finch L, Fisher LWS, Foster T, Garcia-Dorival I, Greenhalf W, Gunning P, Hartley C, Jensen RL, Jones CB, Jones TR, Khandaker S, King K, Kiy RT, Koukorava C, Lake A, Lant S, Latawiec D, Lavelle-Langham L, Lefteri D, Lett L, Livoti LA, Mancini M, McDonald S, McEvoy L, McLauchlan J, Metelmann S, Miah NS, Middleton J, Mitchell J, Moore SC, Murphy EG, Penrice-Randal R, Pilgrim J, Prince T, Reynolds W, Ridley PM, Sales D, Shaw VE, Shears RK, Small B, Subramaniam KS, Szemiel A, Taggart A, Tanianis-Hughes J, Thomas J, Trochu E, Tonder LV, Wilcock E, Zhang JE, Flaherty L, Maziere N, Cass E, Carracedo AD, Carlucci N, Holmes A, Massey H, Adeniji K, Agranoff D, Agwuh K, Ail D, Alegria A, Angus B, Ashish A, Atkinson D, Bari S, Barlow G, Barnass S, Barrett N, Bassford C, Baxter D, Beadsworth Met al., 2021, Risk of adverse outcomes in patients with underlying respiratory conditions admitted to hospital with COVID-19: a national, multicentre prospective cohort study using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 9, Pages: 699-711, ISSN: 2213-2600

BackgroundStudies of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 have found varying mortality outcomes associated with underlying respiratory conditions and inhaled corticosteroid use. Using data from a national, multicentre, prospective cohort, we aimed to characterise people with COVID-19 admitted to hospital with underlying respiratory disease, assess the level of care received, measure in-hospital mortality, and examine the effect of inhaled corticosteroid use.MethodsWe analysed data from the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study. All patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 across England, Scotland, and Wales between Jan 17 and Aug 3, 2020, were eligible for inclusion in this analysis. Patients with asthma, chronic pulmonary disease, or both, were identified and stratified by age (<16 years, 16–49 years, and ≥50 years). In-hospital mortality was measured by use of multilevel Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and medications (inhaled corticosteroids, short-acting β-agonists [SABAs], and long-acting β-agonists [LABAs]). Patients with asthma who were taking an inhaled corticosteroid plus LABA plus another maintenance asthma medication were considered to have severe asthma.Findings75 463 patients from 258 participating health-care facilities were included in this analysis: 860 patients younger than 16 years (74 [8·6%] with asthma), 8950 patients aged 16–49 years (1867 [20·9%] with asthma), and 65 653 patients aged 50 years and older (5918 [9·0%] with asthma, 10 266 [15·6%] with chronic pulmonary disease, and 2071 [3·2%] with both asthma and chronic pulmonary disease). Patients with asthma were significantly more likely than those without asthma to receive critical care (patients aged 16–49 years: adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·20 [95% CI

Journal article

ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Group, 2021, COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study, Infection: journal of infectious disease, ISSN: 0300-8126

BACKGROUND: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. METHODS: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. RESULTS: 'Typical' symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P < 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. INTERPRETATION: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men.

Journal article

Paton S, Spencer A, Garratt I, Thompson K-A, Dinesh I, Aranega-Bou P, Stevenson D, Clark S, Dunning J, Bennett A, Pottage Tet al., 2021, Persistence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Virus and Viral RNA in Relation to Surface Type and Contamination Concentration., Appl Environ Microbiol, Vol: 87

The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is likely to occur through a number of routes, including contact with contaminated surfaces. Many studies have used reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) analysis to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA on surfaces, but seldom has viable virus been detected. This paper investigates the viability over time of SARS-CoV-2 dried onto a range of materials and compares viability of the virus to RNA copies recovered and whether virus viability is concentration dependent. Viable virus persisted for the longest time on surgical mask material and stainless steel, with a 99.9% reduction in viability by 122 and 114 h, respectively. Viability of SARS-CoV-2 reduced the fastest on a polyester shirt, with a 99.9% reduction within 2.5 h. Viability on the bank note was reduced second fastest, with 99.9% reduction in 75 h. RNA on all surfaces exhibited a 1-log reduction in genome copy number recovery over 21 days. The findings show that SARS-CoV-2 is most stable on nonporous hydrophobic surfaces. RNA is highly stable when dried on surfaces, with only 1-log reduction in recovery over 3 weeks. In comparison, SARS-CoV-2 viability reduced more rapidly, but this loss in viability was found to be independent of starting concentration. Expected levels of SARS-CoV-2 viable environmental surface contamination would lead to undetectable levels within 2 days. Therefore, when RNA is detected on surfaces, it does not directly indicate the presence of viable virus, even at low cycle threshold values. IMPORTANCE This study shows the impact of material type on the viability of SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces. It demonstrates that the decay rate of viable SARS-CoV-2 is independent of starting concentration. However, RNA shows high stability on surfaces over extended periods. This has implications for interpretation of surface sampling results using RT-PCR to determine the possibility of viable virus from a surface, where RT-PCR is not an appropriate technique to determi

Journal article

Leclerc QJ, Fuller NM, Keogh RH, Diaz-Ordaz K, Sekula R, Semple MG, ISARIC4C Investigators, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Atkins KE, Procter SR, Knight GMet al., 2021, Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England., BMC Health Services Research, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 1472-6963

BACKGROUND: Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient's "bed pathway" - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. METHODS: We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. RESULTS: In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: "Ward, CC, Ward", "Ward, CC", "CC" and "CC, Ward". Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. CONCLUSIONS: We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occ

Journal article

Benschop KSM, Broberg EK, Hodcroft E, Schmitz D, Albert J, Baicus A, Bailly J-L, Baldvinsdottir G, Berginc N, Blomqvist S, Böttcher S, Brytting M, Bujaki E, Cabrerizo M, Celma C, Cinek O, Claas ECJ, Cremer J, Dean J, Dembinski JL, Demchyshyna I, Diedrich S, Dudman S, Dunning J, Dyrdak R, Emmanouil M, Farkas A, De Gascun C, Fournier G, Georgieva I, Gonzalez-Sanz R, van Hooydonk-Elving J, Jääskeläinen AJ, Jancauskaite R, Keeren K, Fischer TK, Krokstad S, Nikolaeva-Glomb L, Novakova L, Midgley SE, Mirand A, Molenkamp R, Morley U, Mossong J, Muralyte S, Murk J-L, Nguyen T, Nordbø SA, Österback R, Pas S, Pellegrinelli L, Pogka V, Prochazka B, Rainetova P, Van Ranst M, Roorda L, Schuffenecker I, Schuurman R, Stoyanova A, Templeton K, Verweij JJ, Voulgari-Kokota A, Vuorinen T, Wollants E, Wolthers KC, Zakikhany K, Neher R, Harvala H, Simmonds Pet al., 2021, Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Trajectory of Emerging Echovirus 30, Europe., Emerg Infect Dis, Vol: 27, Pages: 1616-1626

In 2018, an upsurge in echovirus 30 (E30) infections was reported in Europe. We conducted a large-scale epidemiologic and evolutionary study of 1,329 E30 strains collected in 22 countries in Europe during 2016-2018. Most E30 cases affected persons 0-4 years of age (29%) and 25-34 years of age (27%). Sequences were divided into 6 genetic clades (G1-G6). Most (53%) sequences belonged to G1, followed by G6 (23%), G2 (17%), G4 (4%), G3 (0.3%), and G5 (0.2%). Each clade encompassed unique individual recombinant forms; G1 and G4 displayed >2 unique recombinant forms. Rapid turnover of new clades and recombinant forms occurred over time. Clades G1 and G6 dominated in 2018, suggesting the E30 upsurge was caused by emergence of 2 distinct clades circulating in Europe. Investigation into the mechanisms behind the rapid turnover of E30 is crucial for clarifying the epidemiology and evolution of these enterovirus infections.

Journal article

Docherty AB, Mulholland RH, Lone NI, Cheyne CP, De Angelis D, Diaz-Ordaz K, Donegan C, Drake TM, Dunning J, Funk S, García-Fiñana M, Girvan M, Hardwick HE, Harrison J, Ho A, Hughes DM, Keogh RH, Kirwan PD, Leeming G, Nguyen Van-Tam JS, Pius R, Russell CD, Spencer RG, Tom BD, Turtle L, Openshaw PJ, Baillie JK, Harrison EM, Semple MG, ISARIC4C Investigatorset al., 2021, Changes in in-hospital mortality in the first wave of COVID-19: a multicentre prospective observational cohort study using the WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 9, Pages: 773-785, ISSN: 2213-2600

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in the UK appeared to decline during the first wave of the pandemic. We aimed to quantify potential drivers of this change and identify groups of patients who remain at high risk of dying in hospital. METHODS: In this multicentre prospective observational cohort study, the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK recruited a prospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 admitted to 247 acute hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales during the first wave of the pandemic (between March 9 and Aug 2, 2020). We included all patients aged 18 years and older with clinical signs and symptoms of COVID-19 or confirmed COVID-19 (by RT-PCR test) from assumed community-acquired infection. We did a three-way decomposition mediation analysis using natural effects models to explore associations between week of admission and in-hospital mortality, adjusting for confounders (demographics, comorbidities, and severity of illness) and quantifying potential mediators (level of respiratory support and steroid treatment). The primary outcome was weekly in-hospital mortality at 28 days, defined as the proportion of patients who had died within 28 days of admission of all patients admitted in the observed week, and it was assessed in all patients with an outcome. This study is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN66726260. FINDINGS: Between March 9, and Aug 2, 2020, we recruited 80 713 patients, of whom 63 972 were eligible and included in the study. Unadjusted weekly in-hospital mortality declined from 32·3% (95% CI 31·8-32·7) in March 9 to April 26, 2020, to 16·4% (15·0-17·8) in June 15 to Aug 2, 2020. Reductions in mortality were observed in all age groups, in all ethnic groups, for both sexes, and in patients with and without comorbidities. After adjustment, there was a 32% reduction in

Journal article

Majumdar M, Celma C, Pegg E, Polra K, Dunning J, Martin Jet al., 2021, Detection and Typing of Human Enteroviruses from Clinical Samples by Entire-Capsid Next Generation Sequencing, Viruses, Vol: 13, ISSN: 1999-4915

There are increasing concerns of infections by enteroviruses (EVs) causing severe disease in humans. EV diagnostic laboratory methods show differences in sensitivity and specificity as well as the level of genetic information provided. We examined a detection method for EVs based on next generation sequencing (NGS) analysis of amplicons covering the entire capsid coding region directly synthesized from clinical samples. One hundred and twelve clinical samples from England; previously shown to be positive for EVs, were analyzed. There was high concordance between the results obtained by the new NGS approach and those from the conventional Sanger method used originally with agreement in the serotypes identified in the 83 samples that were typed by both methods. The sensitivity and specificity of the NGS method compared to those of the conventional Sanger sequencing typing assay were 94.74% (95% confidence interval, 73.97% to 99.87%) and 97.85% (92.45% to 99.74%) for Enterovirus A, 93.75% (82.80% to 98.69%) and 89.06% (78.75% to 95.49%) for Enterovirus B, 100% (59.04% to 100%) and 98.10% (93.29% to 99.77%) for Enterovirus C, and 100% (75.29% to 100%) and 100% (96.34% to 100%) for Enterovirus D. The NGS method identified five EVs in previously untyped samples as well as additional viruses in some samples, indicating co-infection. This method can be easily expanded to generate whole-genome EV sequences as we show here for EV-D68. Information from capsid and whole-genome sequences is critical to help identifying the genetic basis for changes in viral properties and establishing accurate spatial-temporal associations between EV strains of public health relevance.

Journal article

Gupta RK, Harrison EM, Ho A, Docherty AB, Knight SR, van Smeden M, Abubakar I, Lipman M, Quartagno M, Pius R, Buchan I, Carson G, Drake TM, Dunning J, Fairfield CJ, Gamble C, Green CA, Halpin S, Hardwick HE, Holden KA, Horby PW, Jackson C, Mclean KA, Merson L, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Norman L, Olliaro PL, Pritchard MG, Russell CD, Scott-Brown J, Shaw CA, Sheikh A, Solomon T, Sudlow C, Swann OV, Turtle L, Openshaw PJM, Baillie JK, Semple MG, Noursadeghi M, Baillie JK, Semple MG, Openshaw PJM, Carson G, Alex B, Bach B, Barclay WS, Bogaert D, Chand M, Cooke GS, Docherty AB, Dunning J, Filipe ADS, Fletcher T, Green CA, Harrison EM, Hiscox JA, Ho AYW, Horby PW, Ijaz S, Khoo S, Klenerman P, Law A, Lim WS, Mentzer AJ, Merson L, Meynert AM, Noursadeghi M, Moore SC, Palmarini M, Paxton WA, Pollakis G, Price N, Rambaut A, Robertson DL, Russell CD, Sancho-Shimizu V, Scott JT, de Silva T, Sigfrid L, Solomon T, Sriskandan S, Stuart D, Summers C, Tedder RS, Thomson EC, Thompson AAR, Thwaites RS, Turtle LCW, Zambon M, Hardwick H, Donohue C, Lyons R, Griffiths F, Oosthuyzen W, Norman L, Pius R, Drake TM, Fairfield CJ, Knight S, Mclean KA, Murphy D, Shaw CA, Dalton J, Lee J, Plotkin D, Girvan M, Mullaney S, Petersen C, Saviciute E, Roberts S, Harrison J, Marsh L, Connor M, Halpin S, Jackson C, Gamble C, Leeming G, Law A, Wham M, Clohisey S, Hendry R, Scott-Brown J, Greenhalf W, Shaw V, McDonald S, Keating S, Ahmed KA, Armstrong JA, Ashworth M, Asiimwe IG, Bakshi S, Barlow SL, Booth L, Brennan B, Bullock K, Catterall BWA, Clark JJ, Clarke EA, Cole S, Cooper L, Cox H, Davis C, Dincarslan O, Dunn C, Dyer P, Elliott A, Evans A, Finch L, Fisher LWS, Foster T, Garcia-Dorival I, Greenhalf W, Gunning P, Hartley C, Ho A, Jensen RL, Jones CB, Jones TR, Khandaker S, King K, Kiy RT, Koukorava C, Lake A, Lant S, Latawiec D, Lavelle-Langham L, Lefteri D, Lett L, Livoti LA, Mancini M, McDonald S, McEvoy L, McLauchlan J, Metelmann S, Miah NS, Middleton J, Mitchell J, Moore SC, Murphy EG, Penrice-Randalet al., 2021, Development and validation of the ISARIC 4C Deterioration model for adults hospitalised with COVID-19: a prospective cohort study, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 9, Pages: 349-359, ISSN: 2213-2600

BackgroundPrognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 cases are urgently required to inform clinical management decisions.MethodsWe developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among consecutively hospitalised adults with highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who were prospectively recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study across 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales. Candidate predictors that were specified a priori were considered for inclusion in the model on the basis of previous prognostic scores and emerging literature describing routinely measured biomarkers associated with COVID-19 prognosis. We used internal–external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across eight National Health Service (NHS) regions in the development cohort. We further validated the final model in held-out data from an additional NHS region (London).Findings74 944 participants (recruited between Feb 6 and Aug 26, 2020) were included, of whom 31 924 (43·2%) of 73 948 with available outcomes met the composite clinical deterioration outcome. In internal–external cross-validation in the development cohort of 66 705 participants, the selected model (comprising 11 predictors routinely measured at the point of hospital admission) showed consistent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across all eight NHS regions. In held-out data from London (n=8239), the model showed a similarly consistent performance (C-statistic 0·77 [95% CI 0·76 to 0·78]; calibration-in-the-large 0·00 [–0·05 to 0·05]); calibration slope 0·96 [0·91 to 1·01]), and greater net benefit than

Journal article

Yates T, Zaccardi F, Islam N, Razieh C, Gillies CL, Lawson CA, Chudasama Y, Rowlands A, Davies MJ, Docherty AB, Openshaw PJ, Baillie JK, Semple MG, ISARIC4C investigators, Khunti Ket al., 2021, Obesity, ethnicity and risk of critical care, mechanical ventilation and mortality in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19: Analysis of the ISARIC CCP-UK cohort., Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.), Vol: 29, Pages: 1223-1230, ISSN: 1071-7323

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of obesity with in-hospital COVID-19 outcomes in different ethnic groups. METHODS: Patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in the United Kingdom through the Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) developed by the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) were included from 6th February to 12th October 2020. Ethnicity was classified as: white, South Asian, black and other minority ethnic groups. Outcomes were admission to critical care, mechanical ventilation and in-hospital mortality, adjusted for age, sex and chronic diseases. RESULTS: 54,254 (age = 76 years; 45.0% women) white, 3,728 (57 years; 41.1%) South Asian, 2,523 (58 years; 44.9%) black and 5,427 (61 years; 40.8%) other ethnicities were included. Obesity was associated with all outcomes in all ethnic groups, with associations strongest for black ethnicities. When stratified by ethnicity and obesity status, the OR for admission to critical care, mechanical ventilation and mortality in black ethnicities with obesity were 3.91 (3.13, 4.88), 5.03 (3.94, 6.63), 1.93 (1.49, 2.51) respectively, compared to white ethnicities without obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity was associated with an elevated risk of in-hospital COVID-19 outcomes in all ethnic groups, with associations strongest in black ethnicities.

Journal article

Paton SE, Spencer A, Garratt I, Thompson K-A, Dinesh I, AranegaBou P, Stevenson D, Clark SO, Dunning J, Bennett AM, Pottage Tet al., 2021, Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 virus and viral RNA on hydrophobic and hydrophilic surfaces and investigating contamination concentration

<jats:p>The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is likely to occur through a number of routes, including contact with contaminated surfaces. Many studies have used RT-PCR analysis to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA on surfaces but seldom has viable virus been detected. This paper investigates the viability over time of SARS-CoV-2 dried onto a range of materials and compares viability of the virus to RNA copies recovered, and whether virus viability is concentration dependant. Viable virus persisted for the longest time on surgical mask material and stainless steel with a 99.9% reduction in viability by 124 and 113 hours respectively. Viability of SARS-CoV-2 reduced the fastest on a polyester shirt, with a 99.9% reduction within 2.5 hours. Viability on cotton was reduced second fastest, with 99.9% reduction in 72 hours. RNA on all the surfaces exhibited a one log reduction in genome copy recovery over 21 days. The findings show that SARS-CoV-2 is most stable on non-porous hydrophobic surfaces. RNA is highly stable when dried on surfaces with only one log reduction in recovery over three weeks. In comparison, SARS-CoV-2 viability reduced more rapidly, but this loss in viability was found to be independent of starting concentration. Expected levels of SARS-CoV-2 viable environmental surface contamination would lead to undetectable levels within two days. Therefore, when RNA is detected on surfaces it does not directly indicate presence of viable virus even at high CT values.</jats:p>

Journal article

Thwaites RS, Sanchez Sevilla Uruchurtu A, Siggins MK, Liew F, Russell CD, Moore SC, Fairfield C, Carter E, Abrams S, Short C, Thaventhiran T, Bergstrom E, Gardener Z, Ascough S, Chiu C, Docherty AB, Hunt D, Crow YJ, Solomon T, Taylor GP, Turtle L, Harrison EM, Dunning J, Semple MG, Baillie JK, Openshaw PJMet al., 2021, Inflammatory profiles across the spectrum of disease reveal a distinct role for GM-CSF in severe COVID-19, Science Immunology, Vol: 6, Pages: 1-17, ISSN: 2470-9468

While it is now widely accepted that host inflammatory responses contribute to lung injury, the pathways that drive severity and distinguish coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from other viral lung diseases remain poorly characterized. We analyzed plasma samples from 471 hospitalized patients recruited through the prospective multicenter ISARIC4C study and 39 outpatients with mild disease, enabling extensive characterization of responses across a full spectrum of COVID-19 severity. Progressive elevation of levels of numerous inflammatory cytokines and chemokines (including IL-6, CXCL10, and GM-CSF) were associated with severity and accompanied by elevated markers of endothelial injury and thrombosis. Principal component and network analyses demonstrated central roles for IL-6 and GM-CSF in COVID-19 pathogenesis. Comparing these profiles to archived samples from patients with fatal influenza, IL-6 was equally elevated in both conditions whereas GM-CSF was prominent only in COVID-19. These findings further identify the key inflammatory, thrombotic, and vascular factors that characterize and distinguish severe and fatal COVID-19.

Journal article

Shrotri M, Harris R, Rodger A, Planche T, Sanderson F, Mahungu T, McGregor A, Heath P, Brown C, Dunning J, Hopkins S, Ladhani S, Chand Met al., 2021, Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 N-Antibody Response in Healthcare Workers, London, UK, Emerging Infectious Disease journal, Vol: 27, ISSN: 1080-6059

Prospective serosurveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in 1,069 healthcare workers in London, UK, demonstrated that nucleocapsid antibody titers were stable and sustained for &lt;12 weeks in 312 seropositive participants. This finding was consistent across demographic and clinical variables and contrasts with reports of short-term antibody waning.

Journal article

Pairo-Castineira E, Clohisey S, Klaric L, Bretherick AD, Rawlik K, Pasko D, Walker S, Parkinson N, Fourman MH, Russell CD, Furniss J, Richmond A, Gountouna E, Wrobel N, Harrison D, Wang B, Wu Y, Meynert A, Griffiths F, Oosthuyzen W, Kousathanas A, Moutsianas L, Yang Z, Zhai R, Zheng C, Grimes G, Beale R, Millar J, Shih B, Keating S, Zechner M, Haley C, Porteous DJ, Hayward C, Yang J, Knight J, Summers C, Shankar-Hari M, Klenerman P, Turtle L, Ho A, Moore SC, Hinds C, Horby P, Nichol A, Maslove D, Ling L, McAuley D, Montgomery H, Walsh T, Pereira A, Renieri A, GenOMICC Investigators, ISARICC Investigators, COVID-19 Human Genetics Initiative, 23andMe Investigators, BRACOVID Investigators, Gen-COVID Investigators, Shen X, Ponting CP, Fawkes A, Tenesa A, Caulfield M, Scott R, Rowan K, Murphy L, Openshaw PJM, Semple MG, Law A, Vitart V, Wilson JF, Baillie JKet al., 2021, Genetic mechanisms of critical illness in Covid-19, Nature, Vol: 591, Pages: 92-98, ISSN: 0028-0836

Host-mediated lung inflammation is present,1 and drives mortality,2 in critical illness caused by Covid-19. Host genetic variants associated with critical illness may identify mechanistic targets for therapeutic development.3 Here we report the results of the GenOMICC (Genetics Of Mortality In Critical Care) genome-wide association study(GWAS) in 2244 critically ill Covid-19 patients from 208 UK intensive care units (ICUs). We identify and replicate novel genome-wide significant associations, on chr12q24.13 (rs10735079, p=1.65 [Formula: see text] 10-8) in a gene cluster encoding antiviral restriction enzyme activators (OAS1, OAS2, OAS3), on chr19p13.2 (rs2109069, p=2.3 [Formula: see text] 10-12) near the gene encoding tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2), on chr19p13.3 (rs2109069, p=3.98 [Formula: see text] 10-12) within the gene encoding dipeptidyl peptidase 9 (DPP9), and on chr21q22.1 (rs2236757, p=4.99 [Formula: see text] 10-8) in the interferon receptor gene IFNAR2. We identify potential targets for repurposing of licensed medications: using Mendelian randomisation we found evidence in support of a causal link from low expression of IFNAR2, and high expression of TYK2, to life-threatening disease; transcriptome-wide association in lung tissue revealed that high expression of the monocyte/macrophage chemotactic receptor CCR2 is associated with severe Covid-19. Our results identify robust genetic signals relating to key host antiviral defence mechanisms, and mediators of inflammatory organ damage in Covid-19. Both mechanisms may be amenable to targeted treatment with existing drugs. Large-scale randomised clinical trials will be essential before any change to clinical practice.

Journal article

Russell CD, Fairfield CJ, Drake TM, Turtle L, Seaton RA, Wootton DG, Sigfrid L, Harrison EM, Docherty A, de Silva TI, Egan C, Pius R, Hardwick HE, Merson L, Girvan M, Dunning J, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Openshaw P, Baillie JK, Semple M, Ho Aet al., 2021, Co-Infections, Secondary Infections, and Antimicrobial Usage in Hospitalised Patients with COVID-19 from the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK Study: A Prospective, Multicentre Cohort Study, SSRN Electronic Journal

Journal article

Bloom C, Tom D, Docherty A, Lipworth B, Johnston S, Nguyen-Van-Tam J, Carson G, Dunning J, Harrison E, Baillie K, Semple M, Cullinan P, Openshaw Pet al., 2021, Risk of adverse outcomes in patients with underlying respiratory conditions hospitalised with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: a national, multicentre prospective cohort, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, ISSN: 2213-2600

BackgroundStudies of hospitalised COVID-19 patients have found inconsistencies in mortality associated with underlying respiratory conditions and inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) use. We sought to investigate this relationship using a national, multicentre, prospective cohort. MethodsProspective, multicentre UK cohort of hospitalised COVID-19 patients. Patients with asthma, chronic pulmonary disease (CPD), or both, were identified and stratified by age (years): <16, 16-49 and ≥50. In-hospital mortality was measured using multilevel Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities and medications (ICS, short-acting-beta-agonists (SABA), long-acting-beta-agonists (LABA)). Asthma patients using ICS+LABA+another asthma medication were considered ‘severe’.Findings75,463 patients were included: <16 years, 860 patients (8.6% asthma); 16-49 years, 8,950 patients (20.9% asthma), ≥50 years, 65,653 patients (9.0% asthma, 15.6% CPD, 3.2% asthma & CPD). Asthma patients were significantly more likely to receive critical care, CPD patients were significantly less likely to. In patients 16-49 years, only those with severe asthma had a significant increase in mortality (adjusted HR (95%CI): no therapy=1.21 (0.78-1.88), SABA-only=1.03 (0.66-1.62), ICS-only=1.01 (0.68-1.51), ICS+LABA=1.06 (0.70-1.61), severe=2.07 (1.35-3.18)). In patients ≥50 years, there was increased mortality associated with CPD and severe asthma. ICS use was associated with lower mortality (adjusted HR (95% CI): asthma+no_ICS=0.97 (0.90-1.04), asthma+ICS=0.87 (0.81-0.93), CPD+no_ICS=1.16 (1.11-1.21), CPD+ICS=1.10 (1.04-1.17), asthma+CPD+no_ICS=1.13 (1.00-1.27), asthma+CPD+ICS=0.98 (0.89-1.07).InterpretationUnderlying respiratory conditions are common in hospitalised COVID-19 patients. Regardless of admission severity and comorbidities, asthma patients were more likely to receive critical care than patients without underlying respiratory disease; CPD patients were less

Journal article

Docherty AB, Mulholland RH, Lone NI, Cheyne CP, De Angelis D, Diaz-Ordaz K, Donoghue C, Drake TM, Dunning J, Funk S, García-Fiñana M, Girvan M, Hardwick HE, Harrison J, Ho A, Hughes DM, Keogh RH, Kirwan PD, Leeming G, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Pius R, Russell CD, Spencer R, Tom BDM, Turtle L, Openshaw PJM, Baillie JK, Harrison EM, Semple MGet al., 2020, Changes in UK hospital mortality in the first wave of COVID-19: the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol prospective multicentre observational cohort study

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Mortality rates of UK patients hospitalised with COVID-19 appeared to fall during the first wave. We quantify potential drivers of this change and identify groups of patients who remain at high risk of dying in hospital.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>The International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK recruited a prospective cohort admitted to 247 acute UK hospitals with COVID-19 in the first wave (March to August 2020). Outcome was hospital mortality within 28 days of admission. We performed a three-way decomposition mediation analysis using natural effects models to explore associations between week of admission and hospital mortality adjusting for confounders (demographics, comorbidity, illness severity) and quantifying potential mediators (respiratory support and steroids).</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Findings</jats:title><jats:p>Unadjusted hospital mortality fell from 32.3% (95%CI 31.8, 32.7) in March/April to 16.4% (95%CI 15.0, 17.8) in June/July 2020. Reductions were seen in all ages, ethnicities, both sexes, and in comorbid and non-comorbid patients. After adjustment, there was a 19% reduction in the odds of mortality per 4 week period (OR 0.81, 95%CI 0.79, 0.83). 15.2% of this reduction was explained by greater disease severity and comorbidity earlier in the epidemic. The use of respiratory support changed with greater use of non-invasive ventilation (NIV). 22.2% (OR 0.94, 95%CI 0.94, 0.96) of the reduction in mortality was mediated by changes in respiratory support.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Interpretation</jats:title><jats:p>The fall in hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients during the fi

Journal article

Zhao H, ParryFord F, Dabrera G, Sinnathamby M, Ellis J, Dunning J, Osman H, Machin N, Pebody Ret al., 2020, Six-year experience of detection and investigation of possible Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus cases, England, 2012-2018., Public Health, Vol: 189, Pages: 141-143

OBJECTIVES: Surveillance for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has been undertaken in the UK since September 2012. This study describes the surveillance outcomes in England from 2012 to 2018. STUDY DESIGN: This was a descriptive study using surveillance data. METHODS: Local health protection teams in England report possible MERS cases to the National Infection Service with clinical and laboratory data. RESULTS: A total of 1301 possible MERS cases were identified in the study period. Five cases were laboratory-confirmed MERS. The majority of cases had travelled to Saudi Arabia (56.7%) and United Arab Emirates (25.9%). Fifty-four percent of cases were men and 43.7% were women. The majority of cases (65.1%) were aged 45 years or older. The number of tests increased in the period after Hajj each year. Laboratory-confirmed alternative diagnoses were available for 513 (39.4%) cases; influenza was the most common virus detected (n = 255, 52.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the importance of differential diagnosis of influenza and other respiratory pathogens and early influenza antiviral treatment.

Journal article

Moore G, Rickard H, Stevenson D, Bou PA, Pitman J, Crook A, Davies K, Spencer A, Burton C, Easterbrook L, Love HE, Summers S, Welch SR, Wand N, Thompson K, Pottage T, Richards KS, Dunning J, Bennett Aet al., 2020, Detection of SARS-CoV-2 within the healthcare environment: a multicentre study conducted during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in England, Journal of Hospital Infection, ISSN: 0195-6701

Journal article

Lee N, Ison M, Dunning J, 2020, Early triple antiviral therapy for COVID-19, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1487-1488, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Celma CC, Beard S, Douglas A, Wong S, Osafo N-K, Hannah M, Hale A, Huggins G, Ladhani S, Dunning Jet al., 2020, Retrospective analysis on confirmation rates for referred positive rotavirus samples in England, 2016 to 2017: implications for diagnosis and surveillance, Eurosurveillance, Vol: 25, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 1025-496X

BackgroundRapid diagnostic tests are commonly used by hospital laboratories in England to detect rotavirus (RV), and results are used to inform clinical management and support national surveillance of the infant rotavirus immunisation programme since 2013. In 2017, the Public Health England (PHE) national reference laboratory for enteric viruses observed that the presence of RV could not be confirmed by PCR in a proportion of RV-positive samples referred for confirmatory detection.AimWe aimed to compare the positivity rate of detection methods used by hospital laboratories with the PHE confirmatory test rate.MethodsRotavirus specimens testing positive at local hospital laboratories were re-tested at the PHE national reference laboratory using a PCR test. Confirmatory results were compared to original results from the PHE laboratory information management system.ResultsHospital laboratories screened 70.1% (2,608/3,721) of RV samples using immunochromatographic assay (IC) or rapid tests, 15.5% (578/3,721) using enzyme immunoassays (EIA) and 14.4% (535/3,721) using PCR. Overall, 1,011/3,721 (27.2%) locally RV-positive samples referred to PHE in 2016 and 2017 failed RV detection using the PHE reference laboratory PCR test. Confirmation rates were 66.9% (1,746/2,608) for the IC tests, 87.4% (505/578) for the EIA and 86.4% (465/535) for the PCR assays. Seasonal confirmation rate discrepancies were also evident for IC tests.ConclusionsThis report highlights high false positive rates with the most commonly used RV screening tests and emphasises the importance of implementing verified confirmatory tests for RV detections. This has implications for clinical diagnosis and national surveillance.

Journal article

Thompson CP, Grayson NE, Paton RS, Bolton JS, Lourenço J, Penman BS, Lee LN, Odon V, Mongkolsapaya J, Chinnakannan S, Dejnirattisai W, Edmans M, Fyfe A, Imlach C, Kooblall K, Lim N, Liu C, López-Camacho C, McInally C, McNaughton AL, Ramamurthy N, Ratcliff J, Supasa P, Sampson O, Wang B, Mentzer AJ, Turner M, Semple MG, Baillie K, ISARIC4C Investigators, Harvala H, Screaton GR, Temperton N, Klenerman P, Jarvis LM, Gupta S, Simmonds Pet al., 2020, Detection of neutralising antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 to determine population exposure in Scottish blood donors between March and May 2020., Euro Surveillance, Vol: 25, Pages: 1-9

BackgroundThe progression and geographical distribution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the United Kingdom (UK) and elsewhere is unknown because typically only symptomatic individuals are diagnosed. We performed a serological study of blood donors in Scotland in the spring of 2020 to detect neutralising antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 as a marker of past infection and epidemic progression.AimOur objective was to determine if sera from blood bank donors can be used to track the emergence and progression of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic.MethodsA pseudotyped SARS-CoV-2 virus microneutralisation assay was used to detect neutralising antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. The study comprised samples from 3,500 blood donors collected in Scotland between 17 March and 18 May 2020. Controls were collected from 100 donors in Scotland during 2019.ResultsAll samples collected on 17 March 2020 (n = 500) were negative in the pseudotyped SARS-CoV-2 virus microneutralisation assay. Neutralising antibodies were detected in six of 500 donors from 23 to 26 March. The number of samples containing neutralising antibodies did not significantly rise after 5-6 April until the end of the study on 18 May. We found that infections were concentrated in certain postcodes, indicating that outbreaks of infection were extremely localised. In contrast, other areas remained comparatively untouched by the epidemic.ConclusionAlthough blood donors are not representative of the overall population, we demonstrated that serosurveys of blood banks can serve as a useful tool for tracking the emergence and progression of an epidemic such as the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.

Journal article

Moore SC, Penrice-Randall R, Alruwaili M, Randle N, Armstrong S, Hartley C, Haldenby S, Dong X, Alrezaihi A, Almsaud M, Bentley E, Clark J, García-Dorival I, Gilmore P, Han X, Jones B, Luu L, Sharma P, Shawli G, Sun Y, Zhao Q, Pullan ST, Carter DP, Bewley K, Dunning J, Zhou E-M, Solomon T, Beadsworth M, Cruise J, Crook DW, Matthews DA, Davidson AD, Mahmood Z, Aljabr W, Druce J, Vipond R, Ng L, Renia L, Openshaw PJM, Baillie JK, Carroll MW, Stewart J, Darby A, Semple M, Turtle L, Hiscox JAet al., 2020, Amplicon-based detection and sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 in nasopharyngeal swabs from patients with COVID-19 and identification of deletions in the viral genome that encode proteins involved in interferon antagonism, Viruses, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-16, ISSN: 1999-4915

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Sequencing the viral genome as the outbreak progresses is important, particularly in the identification of emerging isolates with different pathogenic potential and to identify whether nucleotide changes in the genome will impair clinical diagnostic tools such as real-time PCR assays. Although single nucleotide polymorphisms and point mutations occur during the replication of coronaviruses, one of the biggest drivers in genetic change is recombination. This can manifest itself in insertions and/or deletions in the viral genome. Therefore, sequencing strategies that underpin molecular epidemiology and inform virus biology in patients should take these factors into account. A long amplicon/read length-based RT-PCR sequencing approach focused on the Oxford Nanopore MinION/GridION platforms was developed to identify and sequence the SARS-CoV-2 genome in samples from patients with or suspected of COVID-19. The protocol, termed Rapid Sequencing Long Amplicons (RSLAs) used random primers to generate cDNA from RNA purified from a sample from a patient, followed by single or multiplex PCRs to generate longer amplicons of the viral genome. The base protocol was used to identify SARS-CoV-2 in a variety of clinical samples and proved sensitive in identifying viral RNA in samples from patients that had been declared negative using other nucleic acid-based assays (false negative). Sequencing the amplicons revealed that a number of patients had a proportion of viral genomes with deletions.

Journal article

Gupta RK, Harrison EM, Ho A, Docherty AB, Knight SR, van Smeden M, Abubakar I, Lipman M, Quartagno M, Pius R, Buchan I, Carson G, Drake TM, Dunning J, Fairfield CJ, Gamble C, Green CA, Halpin S, Hardwick HE, Holden KA, Horby PW, Jackson C, Mclean KA, Merson L, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Norman L, Olliaro PL, Pritchard MG, Russell CD, Scott-Brown J, Shaw CA, Sheikh A, Solomon T, Sudlow C, Swann OV, Turtle L, Openshaw PJM, Baillie JK, Semple MG, Noursadeghi Met al., 2020, Development and validation of the 4C Deterioration model for adults hospitalised with COVID-19

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Prognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 are required to inform clinical management decisions. Among 75,016 consecutive adults across England, Scotland and Wales prospectively recruited to the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study, we developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) using 11 routinely measured variables. We used internal-external cross-validation to show consistent measures of discrimination, calibration and clinical utility across eight geographical regions. We further validated the final model in held-out data from 8,252 individuals in London, with similarly consistent performance (C-statistic 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.78); calibration-in-the-large 0.01 (−0.04 to 0.06); calibration slope 0.96 (0.90 to 1.02)). Importantly, this model demonstrated higher net benefit than using other candidate scores to inform decision-making. Our 4C Deterioration model thus demonstrates unprecedented clinical utility and generalisability to predict clinical deterioration among adults hospitalised with COVID-19.</jats:p>

Journal article

Drake TM, Docherty AB, Harrison EM, Quint JK, Adamali H, Agnew S, Babu S, Barber CM, Barratt S, Bendstrup E, Bianchi S, Castillo Villegas D, Chaudhuri N, Chua F, Coker R, Chang W, Crawshaw A, Crowley LE, Dosanjh D, Fiddler CA, Forrest IA, George PM, Gibbons MA, Groom K, Haney S, Hart SP, Heiden E, Henry M, Ho L-P, Hoyles RK, Hutchinson J, Hurley K, Jones MG, Jones S, Kokosi M, Kreuter M, Mackay LS, Mahendran S, Margaritopoulos G, Molina-Molina M, Molyneaux PL, O'Brien A, O'Reilly K, Packham A, Parfrey H, Poletti V, Porter JC, Renzoni E, Rivera-Ortega P, Russell A-M, Saini G, Spencer LG, Stella GM, Stone H, Sturney S, Thickett D, Thillai M, Wallis T, Ward K, Wells AU, West A, Wickremasinghe M, Woodhead F, Hearson G, Howard L, Baillie JK, Openshaw PJM, Semple MG, Stewart I, Jenkins RG, ISARIC4C Investigatorset al., 2020, Outcome of hospitalization for COVID-19 in patients with interstitial lung disease: an international multicenter study., American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Vol: 202, Pages: 1656-1665, ISSN: 1073-449X

RATIONALE: The impact of COVID-19 on patients with Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) has not been established. OBJECTIVES: To assess outcomes in patients with ILD hospitalized for COVID-19 versus those without ILD in a contemporaneous age, sex and comorbidity matched population. METHODS: An international multicenter audit of patients with a prior diagnosis of ILD admitted to hospital with COVID-19 between 1 March and 1 May 2020 was undertaken and compared with patients, without ILD obtained from the ISARIC 4C cohort, admitted with COVID-19 over the same period. The primary outcome was survival. Secondary analysis distinguished IPF from non-IPF ILD and used lung function to determine the greatest risks of death. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Data from 349 patients with ILD across Europe were included, of whom 161 were admitted to hospital with laboratory or clinical evidence of COVID-19 and eligible for propensity-score matching. Overall mortality was 49% (79/161) in patients with ILD with COVID-19. After matching ILD patients with COVID-19 had higher mortality (HR 1.60, Confidence Intervals 1.17-2.18 p=0.003) compared with age, sex and co-morbidity matched controls without ILD. Patients with a Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) of <80% had an increased risk of death versus patients with FVC ≥80% (HR 1.72, 1.05-2.83). Furthermore, obese patients with ILD had an elevated risk of death (HR 2.27, 1.39-3.71). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ILD are at increased risk of death from COVID-19, particularly those with poor lung function and obesity. Stringent precautions should be taken to avoid COVID-19 in patients with ILD. This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Journal article

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