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Ratnakumar R, Fraser J, Nicholls R, et al., 2021, Lung nodule management in Covid-19;does postponed surveillance matter?, European-Respiratory-Society (ERS) International Congress, Publisher: EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY SOC JOURNALS LTD, ISSN: 0903-1936
Adamson A, Sinha I, Roberts CM, et al., 2021, Management of children aged 1-5 admitted and treated for a clinical diagnosis of acute asthma compared to those aged 6-16 in secondary care in England and Wales, Publisher: EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY SOC JOURNALS LTD, ISSN: 0903-1936
Whittaker H, Kiddle S, Douglas I, et al., 2021, ICS withdrawal and rate of FEV1 decline in a primary care COPD population in England, Publisher: EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY SOC JOURNALS LTD, ISSN: 0903-1936
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Kallis C, Morgan A, Maslova E, et al., 2021, Trends in asthma incidence in children: a UK population-based cohort study, European-Respiratory-Society (ERS) International Congress, Publisher: EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY SOC JOURNALS LTD, ISSN: 0903-1936
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Gulea C, Zakeri R, Quint JK, 2021, Prognostic differences between heart failure with preserved versus reduced ejection fraction in people with COPD, Publisher: EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY SOC JOURNALS LTD, ISSN: 0903-1936
Attar D, Capstick T, Leese D, et al., 2021, Healthcare costs associated with short-acting β2-agonist use in asthma: an observational UK study from the SABINA global programme, Publisher: EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY SOC JOURNALS LTD, ISSN: 0903-1936
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Whittaker H, Rubino A, Mullerova H, et al., 2021, Increasing risk of exacerbation and mortality associated with increasing frequency and severity of exacerbations in COPD patients: EXACOS-UK, Publisher: EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY SOC JOURNALS LTD, ISSN: 0903-1936
Whittaker H, Kiddle S, Quint J, 2021, Challenges and pitfalls of using repeat spirometry recordings in routine primary care data to measure FEV1 decline in a COPD population, Pragmatic and Observational Research, Vol: 2021, Pages: 119-130, ISSN: 1179-7266
BackgroundElectronic healthcare records (EHR) are increasingly used for epidemiological studies but are often viewed as lacking quality compared to randomised control trials and prospective cohorts. Studies of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often use rate of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) decline as an outcome however, its definition and robustness in EHR has not be investigated. We aimed to investigate how rate of FEV1 decline differs by the criteria used in an EHR database.MethodsClinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics were used. Patient populations were defined using 8 sets of criteria around repeated FEV1 measurements. At a minimum, patients had a diagnosis of COPD, were ≥35 years old, were current or ex-smokers, and had data recorded from 2004. FEV1 measurements recorded during follow-up were identified. Thereafter, eight populations were defined based on criteria around: i) the exclusion of patients or individual measurements with potential measurement error; ii) minimum number of FEV1 measurements; iii) minimum time interval between measurements; iv) specific timing of measurements; v) minimum follow-up time; and vi) the use of linked data. For each population, rate of FEV1 decline was estimated using mixed linear regression. ResultsFor 7/8 patient populations, rates of FEV1 decline (age and sex adjusted) were similar and ranged from -18.7ml/year (95%CI -19.2 to -18.2) to -16.5ml/year (95%CI -17.3 to -15.7). Rates of FEV1 decline in populations that excluded patients with potential measurement error ranged from -79.4ml/year (95%CI -80.7 to -78.2) to -46.8ml/year (95%CI -47.6 to -46.0). ConclusionsFEV1 decline remained similar in a COPD population regardless of number of FEV1 measurements, time intervals between measurements, follow-up period, exclusion of specific FEV1 measurements, and linkage to HES. However, exclusion of individuals with questionable data led to selection bias and fast
Wild JM, Porter JC, Molyneaux PL, et al., 2021, Understanding the burden of interstitial lung disease post-COVID-19: the UK Interstitial Lung Disease-Long COVID Study (UKILD-Long COVID), BMJ Open Respiratory Research, Vol: 8, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 2052-4439
Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has led to over 100 million cases worldwide. The UK has had over 4 million cases, 400 000 hospital admissions and 100 000 deaths. Many patients with COVID-19 suffer long-term symptoms, predominantly breathlessness and fatigue whether hospitalised or not. Early data suggest potentially severe long-term consequence of COVID-19 is development of long COVID-19-related interstitial lung disease (LC-ILD).Methods and analysis The UK Interstitial Lung Disease Consortium (UKILD) will undertake longitudinal observational studies of patients with suspected ILD following COVID-19. The primary objective is to determine ILD prevalence at 12 months following infection and whether clinically severe infection correlates with severity of ILD. Secondary objectives will determine the clinical, genetic, epigenetic and biochemical factors that determine the trajectory of recovery or progression of ILD. Data will be obtained through linkage to the Post-Hospitalisation COVID platform study and community studies. Additional substudies will conduct deep phenotyping. The Xenon MRI investigation of Alveolar dysfunction Substudy will conduct longitudinal xenon alveolar gas transfer and proton perfusion MRI. The POST COVID-19 interstitial lung DiseasE substudy will conduct clinically indicated bronchoalveolar lavage with matched whole blood sampling. Assessments include exploratory single cell RNA and lung microbiomics analysis, gene expression and epigenetic assessment.Ethics and dissemination All contributing studies have been granted appropriate ethical approvals. Results from this study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals.Conclusion This study will ensure the extent and consequences of LC-ILD are established and enable strategies to mitigate progression of LC-ILD.
Shah S, Quint J, Nwaru B, et al., 2021, Impact of COVID-19 national lockdown on asthma exacerbations: interrupted time-series analysis of English primary care data, Thorax, Vol: 76, Pages: 860-866, ISSN: 0040-6376
Background: The impact of Covid-19 and ensuing national lockdown on asthma exacerbations is unclear.Methods: We conducted an interrupted time-series (lockdown on 23rd March as point of interruption) analysis in asthma cohort identified using a validated algorithm from a national-level primary care database, the Optimum Patient Care Database (OPCRD). We derived asthma exacerbation rates for every week and compared exacerbation rates in the period: January-August 2020 with a pre-Covid-19 period; January-August 2016-2019). Exacerbations were defined as asthma-related hospital attendance/admission (including accident and emergency visit), or an acute course of oral corticosteroids with evidence of respiratory review, as recorded in primary care. We used a generalised least squares modelling approach and stratified the analyses by age, sex, English region, and healthcare setting.Results: From a database of 9,949,487 patients, there were 100,165 asthma patients who experienced at least one exacerbation during 2016-2020. Of 278,996 exacerbation episodes, 49,938 (17.1%) required hospital visit. Comparing pre-lockdown to post-lockdown period, we observed a statistically significant reduction in the level (-0.196 episodes per person-year; p-value<0.001; almost 20 episodes for every 100 asthma patients per year) of exacerbation rates across all patients. The reductions in level in stratified analyses were: 0.005-0.244 (healthcare setting, only those without hospital attendance/admission were significant), 0.210-0.277 (sex), 0.159-0.367 (age), 0.068-0.371 (region).Conclusions: There has been a significant reduction in attendance to primary care for asthma exacerbations during the pandemic. This reduction was observed in all age groups, both sexes, and across most regions in England.
Zakeri R, Morgan A, Sundaram V, et al., 2021, Under-recognition of heart failure in patients with atrial fibrillation and the impact of gender: a UK population-based cohort study, BMC Medicine, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1741-7015
Background: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) complicated by heart failure (HF) have a poor prognosis. We investigated whether long-term loop-diuretic therapy in patients with AF and no known diagnosis of HF, as a potential surrogate marker of undiagnosed HF, is also associated with worse outcomes.Methods: Adults with incident AF were identified from UK primary and secondary care records between 2004-2016. Repeat prescriptions for loop-diuretics, without a diagnosis of HF or documented non-cardiac indication, were classified as ‘isolated’ loop-diuretic use.Results: Amongst 124,256 people with incident AF (median 76 years, 47% women), 22,001 (17.7%) had a diagnosis of HF, and 22,325 (18.0%) had isolated loop-diuretic use. During 2.9 (LQ-UQ 1-6) years’ follow-up, 12,182 patients were diagnosed with HF (incidence rate 3.2 [95%CI 3.1-3.3]/100 person-years). Of these, 3,999 (32.8%) had prior isolated loop-diuretic use, including 31% of patients diagnosed with HF following an emergency hospitalisation. The median time from AF to HF diagnosis was 3.6 (1.2-7.7) years in men versus 5.1 (1.8-9.9) years in women (p=0.0001). In adjusted models, patients with isolated loop-diuretic use had higher mortality (HR 1.42 [95%CI 1.37-1.47], p<0.0005) and risk of HF hospitalisation (HR 1.60 [95%CI 1.42-1.80], p<0.0005) than patients with no HF or loop-diuretic use, and comparably poor survival to patients with diagnosed HFConclusions: Loop-diuretics are commonly prescribed to patients with AF and may indicate increased cardiovascular risk. Targeted evaluation of these patients may allow earlier HF diagnosis, timely intervention and better outcomes, particularly amongst women with AF, in whom HF appears to be under-recognised and diagnosed later than in men.
Ngaosuwan K, Johnston DG, Godsland IF, et al., 2021, Mortality risk in patients with adrenal insufficiency using prednisolone or hydrocortisone: a retrospective cohort study, Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism, Vol: 106, Pages: 2242-2251, ISSN: 0021-972X
CONTEXT: Prednisolone has been recommended rather than hydrocortisone for glucocorticoid replacement in adrenal insufficiency due its longer duration of action and lower cost. OBJECTIVE: To determine mortality rates with prednisolone versus hydrocortisone. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: A UK primary care database (Clinical Practice Research Datalink). PARTICIPANTS: Patients with primary and secondary adrenal insufficiency, treated with either prednisolone or hydrocortisone, and controls individually matched for age, sex, period and place of follow-up. INTERVENTIONS: Nil. OUTCOMES: Mortality relative to individually matched controls. RESULTS: As expected, mortality in adrenal insufficiency irrespective of cause was increased, based on 5478 patients (4228 on hydrocortisone; 1250 on prednisolone) and 54314 controls (41934 and 12380, respectively). Overall, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was similar with the two treatments (prednisolone, 1.76 [95% CI, 1.54-2.01] vs. hydrocortisone 1.69 [1.57-1.82]; p=0.65). This was also the case for secondary adrenal insufficiency. In primary disease (1405 on hydrocortisone vs. 137 on prednisolone:13965 and 1347 controls, respectively), prednisolone-users were older, more likely to have another autoimmune disease and malignancy, and less likely to have mineralocorticoid replacement. Nevertheless, after adjustment, the HR for prednisolone-treated patients remained higher than for those taking hydrocortisone (2.92 [2.19-3.91] vs. 1.90 [1.66-2.16]; p=0.0020). CONCLUSIONS: In primary but not in secondary adrenal insufficiency mortality was higher with prednisolone. The study was large, but the number of prednisolone-treated patients was small, and they had greater risk factors. Nonetheless the increased mortality associated with prednisolone persisted despite statistical adjustment. Further evidence is needed regarding the long-term safety of prednisolone as routine replacement.
Raabe C, Li Q, Slater M, et al., 2021, Characteristics of patients initiating Spiriva Respimat for asthma in the UK, Publisher: WILEY, Pages: 163-163, ISSN: 1053-8569
Wing K, Williamson E, Carpenter JR, et al., 2021, Medications for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a historical non-interventional cohort study with validation against RCT results, HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT, Vol: 25, Pages: 1-+, ISSN: 1366-5278
Alqahtani JS, Aquilina J, Bafadhel M, et al., 2021, Research priorities for exacerbations of COPD, LANCET RESPIRATORY MEDICINE, Vol: 9, Pages: 824-826, ISSN: 2213-2600
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Roberts CM, Calvert J, Hickman K, et al., 2021, Addressing a system failure to diagnose COPD and asthma, LANCET RESPIRATORY MEDICINE, Vol: 9, Pages: 814-816, ISSN: 2213-2600
Evangelopoulos D, Chatzidiakou L, Walton H, et al., 2021, Personal exposure to air pollution and respiratory health of COPD patients in London, European Respiratory Journal, Vol: 58, ISSN: 0903-1936
Previous studies have investigated the effects of air pollution on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients using either fixed site measurements or a limited number of personal measurements, usually for one pollutant and a short time period. These limitations may introduce bias and distort the epidemiological associations as they do not account for all the potential sources or the temporal variability of pollution.We used detailed information on individuals' exposure to various pollutants measured at fine spatio-temporal scale to obtain more reliable effect estimates. A panel of 115 patients was followed up for an average continuous period of 128 days carrying a personal monitor specifically designed for this project that measured temperature, PM10, PM2.5, NO2, NO, CO and O3 at one-minute time resolution. Each patient recorded daily information on respiratory symptoms and measured peak expiratory flow (PEF). A pulmonologist combined related data to define a binary variable denoting an "exacerbation". The exposure-response associations were assessed with mixed-effects models.We found that gaseous pollutants were associated with a deterioration in patients' health. We observed an increase of 16.4% (95% confidence interval: 8.6-24.6%), 9.4% (5.4-13.6%) and 7.6% (3.0-12.4%) in the odds of exacerbation for an interquartile range increase in NO2, NO and CO respectively. Similar results were obtained for cough and sputum. O3 was found to have adverse associations with PEF and breathlessness. No association was observed between particles and any outcome.Our findings suggest that, when considering total personal exposure to air pollutants, mainly the gaseous pollutants affect COPD patients' health.
Axson E, Bottle R, Cowie M, et al., 2021, The relationship between heart failure and the risk of acute exacerbation of COPD, Thorax, Vol: 76, Pages: 807-814, ISSN: 0040-6376
Rationale: Heart failure (HF) management in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is often delayed or suboptimal.Objectives: To examine the effect of HF and HF medication use on moderate-to-severe COPD exacerbations.Methods and Measurements: Retrospective cohort studies from 2006-2016 using nationally-representative English primary care electronic healthcare records linked to national hospital and mortality data. COPD patients with diagnosed and possible HF were identified. Possible HF defined as continuous loop diuretic use in the absence of a non-cardiac indication. Incident exposure to HF medications was defined as ≥2 prescriptions within 90 days with no gaps >90 days during ≤6 months of continuous use; prevalent exposure as 6+ months continuous use. HF medications investigated were angiotensin receptor blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, beta-blockers, loop diuretics, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists. Cox regression, stratified on sex and age; further adjusted for patient characteristics, was used to determine the association of HF on exacerbation risk.Main Results: 86,795 COPD patients were categorized as; no evidence of HF (n=60,047); possible HF (n=8,476); newly diagnosed HF (n=2,066). Newly diagnosed HF (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 1.45, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.30, 1.62) and possible HF (aHR: 1.65, 95%CI: 1.58, 1.72) similarly increased exacerbation risk. Incident and prevalent use of all HF medications were associated with increased exacerbation risk. Prevalent use was associated with reduced exacerbation risk compared with incident use.Conclusions: Earlier opportunities to improve diagnosis and management of HF in the COPD population are missed. Managing HF may reduce exacerbation risk in the longer term.
Bachtiger P, Adamson A, Maclean WA, et al., 2021, Determinants of shielding behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic and associations with wellbeing in >7,000 NHS patients: 17-week longitudinal observational study., JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, Vol: 7, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 2369-2960
BACKGROUND: The UK National Health Service (NHS) classified 2.2 million people as clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) during the first wave of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, advising them to 'shield' - to not leave home for any reason. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to measure the determinants of shielding behaviour and associations with wellbeing in a large NHS patient population, towards informing future health policy. METHODS: Patients contributing to an ongoing longitudinal participatory epidemiology study (LoC-19, n = 42,924) received weekly email invitations to complete questionnaires (17-week shielding period starting 9th April 2020) within their NHS personal electronic health record. Question items focused on wellbeing. Participants were stratified into four groups by self-reported CEV status (qualifying condition) and adoption of shielding behaviour (baselined at week 1 or 2). Distribution of CEV criteria is reported alongside situational variables and uni- and multivariable logistic regression. Longitudinal trends in physical and mental wellbeing were displayed graphically. Free-text responses reporting variables impacting wellbeing were semi-quantified using natural language processing. In the lead up to a second national lockdown (October 23rd, 2020), a follow-up questionnaire evaluated subjective concern if further shielding were advised. RESULTS: 7,240 participants were included. Among the CEV (2,391), 1,133 (47.3%) assumed shielding behaviour at baseline, compared with 633 (15.0%) in the non-CEV group. Those CEV who shielded were more likely to be Asian (Odds Ratio OR 2.02 [1.49-2.76]), female (OR 1.24 [1.05-1.45]), older (OR per year increase 1.01 [1.00-1.02]) and live in a home with outdoor space (OR 1.34 [1.06-1.70]) or 3-4 other inhabitants (3 = OR 1.49 [1.15-1.94], 4 = OR 1.49 [1.10-2.01]); and be solid organ transplant recipients (2.85 [2.18-3.77]) or have severe chronic lung disease (OR 1.63 [1.30-2.04]). Receipt of a government letter adv
Patel K, Li X, Quint J, et al., 2021, Increasing adiposity and the presence of cardiometabolic morbidity is associated with increased Covid-19-related mortality: results from the UK Biobank, BMC Endocrine Disorders, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-6, ISSN: 1472-6823
Background: Although obesity, defined by body mass index (BMI), has been associated with a higher risk of hospitalisation and more severe course of illness in Covid-19 positive patients amongst the British population, it is unclear if this translates into increased mortality. Furthermore, given that BMI is an insensitive indicator of adiposity, the effect of adipose volume on Covid-19 outcomes is also unknown. Methods: We used the UK Biobank repository, which contains clinical and anthropometric data, and is linked to Public Health England Covid-19 healthcare records, to address our research question. We performed age- and sex- adjusted logistic regression and Chi-squared test to compute the odds for Covid-19-related mortality as a consequence of increasing BMI, other more sensitive indices of adiposity such as waist:hip ratio (WHR) and percent body fat, as well as concomitant cardiometabolic illness.Results: 13502 participants were tested for Covid-19 (mean age 70+8 years, 48.9% male). 1,582 tested positive (mean age 68+9 years, 52.8% male), of which 305 died (mean age 75+6 years, 65.5% male). Increasing adiposity was associated with higher odds for Covid-19-related mortality. For every unit increase in BMI, WHR and percent body fat, the odds of death amongst the Covid19-positive participants increased by 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.07), 10.71 (95% CI 1.57-73.06) and 1.03 (95% CI 1.01-1.05), respectively (all p<0.05). Referenced to Covid-19 positive participants with a normal weight (BMI 18.5-25kg/m2), Covid-19 positive participants with BMI>35kg/m2 had significantly higher odds of Covid-19-related death (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.06-2.74, p<0.05). Covid-19-positive participants with metabolic (diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidaemia) or cardiovascular morbidity (atrial fibrillation, angina) also had higher odds of death.Conclusions: Anthropometric indices that are more sensitive to adipose volume and its distribution than BMI, as well as concurrent cardiometabolic illnes
Sivakumaran S, Alsallakh MA, Lyons RA, et al., 2021, Identifying COPD in routinely collected electronic health records: a systematic scoping review4, ERJ OPEN RESEARCH, Vol: 7
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Ngaosuwan K, Johnston DG, Godsland IF, et al., 2021, Increased mortality risk in patients with primary and secondary adrenal insufficiency, Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism, Vol: 106, Pages: e2759-e2768, ISSN: 0021-972X
CONTEXT: Mortality data in patients with adrenal insufficiency are inconsistent, possibly due to temporal and geographical differences between patients and their reference populations. OBJECTIVE: To compare mortality risk and causes of death in adrenal insufficiency with an individually-matched reference population. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: UK general practitioner database (CPRD). PARTICIPANTS: 6821 patients with adrenal insufficiency (primary, 2052; secondary, 3948) and 67564 individually-matched controls (primary, 20366; secondary, 39134). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause and cause-specific mortality; hospital admission from adrenal crisis. RESULTS: With follow-up of 40799 and 406899 person-years for patients and controls respectively, the hazard ratio (HR; [95%CI]) for all-cause mortality was 1.68 [1.58 - 1.77]. HRs were greater in primary (1.83 [1.66 - 2.02]) than in secondary (1.52 [1.40 - 1.64]) disease; (HR; primary versus secondary disease, 1.16 [1.03 - 1.30]). The leading cause of death was cardiovascular disease (HR 1.54 [1.32-1.80]), along with malignant neoplasms and respiratory disease. Deaths from infection were also relatively high (HR 4.00 [2.15 - 7.46]). Adrenal crisis contributed to 10% of all deaths. In the first two years following diagnosis, the patients' mortality rate and hospitalisation from adrenal crisis were higher than in later years. CONCLUSION: Mortality was increased in adrenal insufficiency, especially primary, even with individual matching and was observed early in the disease course. Cardiovascular disease was the major cause but mortality from infection was also high. Adrenal crisis was a common contributor. Early education for prompt treatment of infections and avoidance of adrenal crisis hold potential to reduce mortality.
groves D, karsanji U, evans R, et al., 2021, Predicting future health risk in COPD: Differential impact of disease specific and multi-morbidity based risk stratification, International Journal of COPD, Vol: 2021, Pages: 1741-1754, ISSN: 1176-9106
Objective: Multi-morbidity contributes to mortality and hospitalisation in COPD but it is uncertain how this interacts with disease severity in risk prediction. We compared contributions of multi-morbidity and disease severity factors in modelling future health risk using UK primary care healthcare data. Method: Health records from 103,955 patients with COPD identified from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink were analysed. We compared Area Under The Curve (AUC) statistics for logistic regression (LR) models incorporating disease indices with models incorporating categorised co-morbidities. We also compared these models with performance of The John Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups® System (ACG) risk prediction algorithm. Results: LR models predicting all-cause mortality outperformed models predicting hospitalisation. Mortality was best predicted by disease severity (AUC & 95% CI: 0.816 (0.805 - 0.827)) and prediction was enhanced only marginally by the addition of multi-morbidity indices (AUC & 95% CI: 0.829 (0.818 – 0.839)). The model combining disease severity and multi-morbidity indices was a better predictor of hospitalisation (AUC & 95% CI: 0.679 (0.672 – 0.686)). ACG derived LR models outperformed conventional regression models for hospitalisation (AUC & 95% CI: 0.697 (0.690 – 0.704)) but not for mortality (AUC & 95% CI: 0.816 (0.805 – 0.827)). Conclusion: Stratification of future health risk in COPD can be undertaken using clinical and demographic data recorded in primary care but the impact of disease severity and multi-morbidity varies depending on the choice of health outcome. A more comprehensive risk modelling algorithm such as ACG offers enhanced prediction for hospitalisation by incorporating a wider range of coded diagnoses.
Hopkinson N, Rossi N, El-Sayed Moustafa JS, et al., 2021, Current smoking and COVID-19 risk: results from a population symptom app in over 2.4 million people, Thorax, Vol: 76, Pages: 714-722, ISSN: 0040-6376
Background: The association between current tobacco smoking, the risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19 and the severity of illness is an important information gap.Methods: UK users of the Zoe COVID Symptom Study App provided baseline data including demographics, anthropometrics, smoking status and medical conditions, and were asked to log their condition daily. Participants who reported that they did not feel physically normal were then asked by the app to complete a series of questions, including 14 potential COVID-19 symptoms and about hospital attendance. The main study outcome was the development of “classic” symptoms of COVID-19 during the pandemic defined as fever, new persistent cough and breathlessness and their association with current smoking. The number of concurrent COVID-19 symptoms was used as a proxy for severity and the pattern of association between symptoms was also compared between smokers and non-smokers. Results: Between 24th March 2020 to 23rd April 2020, data were available on 2,401,982 participants, mean(SD) age 43.6(15.1) years, 63.3% female, overall smoking prevalence 11.0%. 834,437 (35%) participants reported being unwell and entered one or more symptoms. Current smokers were more likely to report symptoms suggesting a diagnosis of COVID-19; classic symptoms adjusted OR[95%CI] 1.14[1.10 to 1.18]; >5 symptoms 1.29[1.26 to 1.31]; >10 symptoms 1.50[1.42 to 1.58]. The pattern of association between reported symptoms did not vary between smokers and non-smokers.Interpretation: These data are consistent with people who smoke being at an increased risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19.
Quint J, O'Leary C, Venerus A, et al., 2021, Development and validation of a method to estimate COPD severity in multiple datasets: a retrospective study, Pulmonary Therapy, Vol: 7, Pages: 119-132, ISSN: 2364-1746
IntroductionOutcomes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) such as symptoms, hospitalisations and mortality rise with increasing disease severity. However, the heterogeneity of electronic medical records presents a significant challenge in measuring severity across geographies. We aimed to develop and validate a method to approximate COPD severity using the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2011 classification scheme, which categorises patients based on forced expiratory volume in 1 s, hospitalisations and the modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea scale or COPD Assessment Test.MethodsThis analysis was part of a comprehensive retrospective study, including patients sourced from the IQVIA Medical Research Data [IMRD; incorporating data from The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a Cegedim database] and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in the UK, the Disease Analyzer in Germany and the Longitudinal Patient Data in Italy, France and Australia. Patients in the CPRD with the complete set of information required to calculate GOLD 2011 groups were used to develop the method. Ordinal logistic models at COPD diagnosis and at index (first episode of triple therapy) were then used to validate the method to estimate COPD severity, and this was applied to the full study population to estimate GOLD 2011 categories.ResultsOverall, 4579 and 12,539 patients were included in the model at COPD diagnosis and at index, respectively. Models correctly classified 74.4% and 75.9% of patients into severe and non-severe categories at COPD diagnosis and at index, respectively. Age, gender, time between diagnosis and start of triple therapy, healthcare resource use, comorbid conditions and prescriptions were included as covariates.ConclusionThis study developed and validated a method to approximate disease severity based on GOLD 2011 categories that can potentially be used in patients without all the key parameters needed for this calculat
Ratnakumar R, Fraser J, Nicholls R, et al., 2021, Lung nodule management in Covid-19: does postponed surveillance matter?, Publisher: ELSEVIER IRELAND LTD, Pages: S19-S19, ISSN: 0169-5002
lekarz J, Schelbert E, Naish JH, et al., 2021, Mechanisms underlying the association of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with heart failure, JACC: Cardiovascular Imaging, ISSN: 1876-7591
Bachtiger P, Adamson A, Maclean WA, et al., 2021, Determinants of Shielding Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Associations With Well-being Among National Health Service Patients: Longitudinal Observational Study (Preprint)
<sec> <title>BACKGROUND</title> <p>The UK National Health Service (NHS) classified 2.2 million people as clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) during the first wave of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, advising them to “shield” (to not leave home for any reason).</p> </sec> <sec> <title>OBJECTIVE</title> <p>The aim of this study was to measure the determinants of shielding behavior and associations with well-being in a large NHS patient population for informing future health policy.</p> </sec> <sec> <title>METHODS</title> <p>Patients contributing to an ongoing longitudinal participatory epidemiology study (Longitudinal Effects on Wellbeing of the COVID-19 Pandemic [LoC-19], n=42,924) received weekly email invitations to complete questionnaires (17-week shielding period starting April 9, 2020) within their NHS personal electronic health record. Question items focused on well-being. Participants were stratified into four groups by self-reported CEV status (qualifying condition) and adoption of shielding behavior (baselined at week 1 or 2). The distribution of CEV criteria was reported alongside situational variables and univariable and multivariable logistic regression. Longitudinal trends in physical and mental well-being were displayed graphically. Free-text responses reporting variables impacting well-being were semiquantified using natural language processing. In the lead up to a second national lockdown (October 23, 2020), a follow-up questionnaire evaluated subjective concern if further shielding was advised.</p> </sec> <sec> <title>RESULTS</title>
Cook S, Eggen AE, Hopstock L, et al., 2021, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in population studies in Russia and Norway: comparison of prevalence, awareness and management, International Journal of COPD, Vol: 16, Pages: 1353-1368, ISSN: 1176-9106
Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Despite a high prevalence of smoking and respiratory symptoms, two recent population-based studies in Russia found a relatively low prevalence of obstructive lung function. Here, we investigated the prevalence of both obstructive lung disease and respiratory symptoms in a population-based study conducted in two Russian cities and compared the findings with a similar study from Norway conducted in the same time period.Methods: The study population was a sub-sample of participants aged 40– 69 years participating in the Know Your Heart (KYH) study in Russia in 2015– 18 (n=1883) and in the 7th survey of the Tromsø Study (n=5271) carried out in Norway in 2015– 16 (Tromsø 7) who participated in spirometry examinations. The main outcome was obstructive lung function (FEV1/FVC ratio< lower limit of normal on pre-bronchodilator spirometry examination) with and without respiratory symptoms (chronic cough and breathlessness). In those with obstructive lung function, awareness (known diagnosis) and management (use of medications, smoking cessation) were compared.Results: The age-standardized prevalence of obstructive lung function was similar among men in both studies (KYH 11.0% vs Tromsø 7 9.8%, p=0.21) and higher in the Norwegian (9.4%) than Russian (6.8%) women (p=0.006). In contrast, the prevalence of obstructive lung function plus respiratory symptoms was higher in Russian men (KYH 8.3% vs Tromsø 7 4.7%, p< 0.001) but similar in women (KYH 5.9% vs Tromsø 7 6.4%, p=0.18). There was a much higher prevalence of respiratory symptoms in Russian than Norwegian participants of both sexes regardless of presence of obstructive lung function.Conclusion: The prevalence of respiratory symptoms was strikingly high among Russian participants but this was not explained by a higher burden of obstructive lung function on
Ngaosuwan K, Johnston DG, Godsland IF, et al., 2021, Cardiovascular disease in patients with primary and secondary adrenal insufficiency and the role of comorbidities, Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism, Vol: 106, Pages: 1284-1293, ISSN: 0021-972X
CONTEXT: Mortality studies have established that cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in patients with adrenal insufficiency and the risk is greater than that observed in individually-matched controls. OBJECTIVE: Here we have performed a detailed analysis of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, taking account of the role of co-morbidities. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: UK general practitioner database (CPRD). PARTICIPANTS: 6821 patients with adrenal insufficiency (primary, 2052; secondary, 3948) compared with 67564 individually-matched controls, with and without adjustment for comorbidities (diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, previous cardiovascular disease, and smoking). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Composite cardiovascular events recorded in CPRD and cardiovascular mortality in those participants with linked national mortality data. RESULTS: Hazard ratios (95%CI) for composite cardiovascular events in patients with adrenal insufficiency of any cause were 1.28 (1.20-1.36, unadjusted) and 1.07 (1.01-1.14, adjusted). Increased cerebrovascular events in patients with secondary adrenal insufficiency accounted for most of the increased hazard (1.53 (1.34-1.74, adjusted)) and were associated with cranial irradiation therapy. Cardiovascular mortality data were available for 3547 patients and 34944 controls. The adjusted hazard ratio for ischaemic heart disease mortality was 1.86 (1.25-2.78) for primary adrenal insufficiency and 1.39 (1.02-1.89) for secondary. CONCLUSION: Co-morbidities largely accounted for the increased cardiovascular events but in secondary adrenal insufficiency, cerebrovascular events were independently increased and associated with irradiation treatment. However, the risk of cardiovascular mortality remained increased even following adjustment for co-morbidities in both primary and secondary adrenal insufficiency.
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