Imperial College London

ProfessorJoeriRogelj

Faculty of Natural SciencesCentre for Environmental Policy

Professor of Climate Science and Policy
 
 
 
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Contact

 

j.rogelj Website

 
 
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Location

 

304Weeks BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

186 results found

Rogelj J, Lamboll RD, 2024, Correction to: Substantial reductions in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions reductions implied by IPCC estimates of the remaining carbon budget (Communications Earth & Environment, (2024), 5, 1, (35), 10.1038/s43247-023-01168-8), Communications Earth and Environment, Vol: 5

Correction to: Communications Earth & Environmenthttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01168-8, published online 12 January 2024 The Supplementary Information associated with this Article contains an error in the Supplementary Information, Table S4, in which the columns “CH4”, “CH4 AFOLU”, “CH4 non-AFOLU” and “N2O” under “Emissions change in 2040 relative to 2020 [%]” contained the incorrect values. The corrected version of the Supplementary Information has now been uploaded.

Journal article

Andrijevic M, Schleussner C-F, Kikstra J, Heede R, Rogelj J, Schmidt S, Simpkin Het al., 2024, Towards Evaluating the Financial Responsibility of Carbon Majors for Climate-Related Damages

<jats:p>In light of the global energy crisis and escalating climate change impacts, the liability of major fossil fuel companies is receiving heightened scrutiny, particularly in the context of climate litigation. This study initially establishes the feasibility of attributing climate damages to these companies. Utilizing the social cost of carbon methodology, we evaluate the damages inflicted by the top 25 oil and gas emitters from 1985 to 2018, comparing these to their financial profits. Our central estimate suggests partial damages of approximately 20 trillion USD, with the companies&amp;#8217; financial gains surpassing this by 50%, totaling around 30 trillion USD. This indicates the potential of carbon majors to cover their attributed damages while maintaining significant profits. In our analysis, we also explore how varying approaches to assigning responsibility and handling uncertainties in climate damages can markedly influence these findings. Additionally, we explore the role of sovereign wealth funds in perpetuating fossil-fuel derived wealth and the ensuing liability questions.</jats:p>

Other

Cox PM, Williamson MS, Friedlingstein P, Jones CD, Raoult N, Rogelj J, Varney RMet al., 2024, Emergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming., Nat Commun, Vol: 15

Earth System Models (ESMs) continue to diagnose a wide range of carbon budgets for each level of global warming. Here, we present emergent constraints on the carbon budget as a function of global warming, which combine the available ESM historical simulations and future projections for a range of scenarios, with observational estimates of global warming and anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the present day. We estimate mean and likely ranges for cumulative carbon budgets for the Paris targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming of 812 [691, 933] PgC and 1048 [881, 1216] PgC, which are more than 10% larger than the ensemble mean values from the CMIP6 models. The linearity between cumulative emissions and global warming is found to be maintained at least until 4 °C, and is consistent with an effective Transient Climate Response to Emissions (eTCRE) of 2.1 [1.8, 2.6] °C/1000PgC, from a global warming of 1.2 °C onwards.

Journal article

Xie JJ, Martin M, Rogelj J, Staffell Iet al., 2024, Correction to: Distributional labour challenges and opportunities for decarbonizing the US power system (Nature Climate Change, (2023), 13, 11, (1203-1212), 10.1038/s41558-023-01802-5), Nature Climate Change, Vol: 14, ISSN: 1758-678X

Nature Portfolio 12 27 0 2024 Springer Nature Limited 2024 No Unnumbered 2023 11 7 0 0 Regular NonStandardArchiveJournal Unnumbered OpenChoice OpenAccess OpenAccess OpenAccess OpenAccess OpenAccess OpenAccess false BodyRef/PDF/41558_2023_Article_1888.pdf Typeset OnlinePDF 2024 2 8 2024 2 6 Regular Erratum Environment Environment, general Climate Change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice Earth and Environmental Science true Correction to: Nature Climate Changehttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01802-5, published online 2 November 2023. In the version of the article initially published, there was an error in Fig. 1: “100% by 2035” previously read “95% by 2035”. This has been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.

Journal article

Rogelj J, Lamboll R, 2024, Substantial reductions in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions reductions implied by IPCC estimates of the remaining carbon budget, Communications Earth & Environment, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2662-4435

Carbon budgets are quantifications of the total amount of carbon dioxide that can ever be emitted while keeping global warming below specific temperature limits. However, estimates of these budgets for limiting warming to 1.5 °C and well-below 2 °C include assumptions about how much warming can be expected from non-CO2 emissions. Here, we uncover the non-CO2 emissions assumptions that underlie the latest remaining carbon budget estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and quantify the implication of the world pursuing alternative higher or lower emissions. We consider contributions of methane, nitrous oxide, fluorinated gases, and aerosols and show how pursuing inadequate methane emission reductions causes remaining carbon budgets compatible with the Paris Agreement temperature limits to be exhausted today, effectively putting achievement of the Paris Agreement out of reach.

Journal article

Lamboll RD, Nicholls ZRJ, Smith CJ, Kikstra JS, Byers E, Rogelj Jet al., 2024, Author Correction: Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets (Nature Climate Change, (2023), 13, 12, (1360-1367), 10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5), Nature Climate Change, Vol: 14, ISSN: 1758-678X

Correction to: Nature Climate Change, published online 30 October 2023. In the version of the article initially published, in the “Comparison of recommended result with AR6 WG1 results” section, the sentence now reading “After making all these changes, our best (50%) RCB estimate starting after 2022…” originally said “starting from 2022”. In the Methods, in the sentence now reading “We use a different approach to MAGICC when processing FaIR data because by default, FaIR includes the effects of a substantial solar cycle in future temperatures…”, “future temperatures” originally said “future emissions”. These updates have been made in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.

Journal article

Lamboll RD, Nicholls ZRJ, Smith CJ, Kikstra JS, Byers E, Rogelj Jet al., 2023, Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets, Nature Climate Change, Vol: 13, Pages: 1360-1367, ISSN: 1758-678X

The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of CO2 humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5 °C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative adjustments. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and present more recent data, calculation refinements and robustness checks that increase confidence in them. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5 °C is around 250 GtCO2 as of January 2023, equal to around six years of current CO2 emissions. For a 50% chance of 2 °C the RCB is around 1,200 GtCO2. Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and potential warming after net zero CO2.

Journal article

Zickfeld K, MacIsaac AJ, Canadell JG, Fuss S, Jackson RB, Jones CD, Lohila A, Matthews HD, Peters GP, Rogelj J, Zaehle Set al., 2023, Net-zero approaches must consider Earth system impacts to achieve climate goals, Nature Climate Change, Vol: 13, Pages: 1298-1305, ISSN: 1758-678X

Commitments to net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets now cover 88% of countries’ emissions. Underlying the accounting behind net-zero frameworks is the assumption that emissions can be balanced with removals such that their net climate effect is zero. However, when considering the full climate impacts of CO2 emissions and removals, there are reasons to expect that the two are not equivalent in terms of their climate outcomes. We identify potential contributors to non-equivalence, including impermanence, biogeophysical and non-CO2 GHG effects, and argue that these non-equivalencies need to be accounted for to achieve climate goals. Given key uncertainties about the full climate impact of CO2 removal, it is prudent to prioritize emission reductions over removals.

Journal article

Kikstra J, Li M, Brockway P, Hickel J, Keysser L, Malik A, Rogelj J, van Ruijven B, Lenzen Met al., 2023, Downscaling Down Under: towards degrowth in integrated assessment models, Economic Systems Research, ISSN: 0953-5314

IPCC reports to date have not featured scenarios of reduced absolute economic output in high-income regions. Here, we change the utility function in the energy-economy model MESSAGEix-Australia to explore an ensemble of 51 emissions scenarios. Total GDP growth in these scenarios goes from continuing historical growth trends (+3%/year) to rapid reductions (-5%/year) in aggregate production andconsumption. We use this experiment as an illustration to investigate the ability of a traditional integrated assessment model (IAM) to capture elements of degrowth startingfrom an economic, rather than energy demand reduction entry -point. Keeping Australian GDP per capita close to current levels reduces the mid-century need for upscaling solar and wind by close to 40% compared to the SSP2 growth baseline, and limits future material needs for renewables, although upscaling needs from 2020 remain11high until 2030 at 4.2x versus 5.6x growth in the SSP2 baseline. More dramatic reductions in energy demand may entail higher socio-cultural feasibility concerns, depending on the policies involved. Strong reductions in inequality reduce the risk of lowered access to decent living services. We end with a discussion on research needs and possible extensions of IAM frameworks to more accurately model post-growth and degrowth scenarios.

Journal article

Stuart-Smith RF, Rajamani L, Rogelj J, Wetzer Tet al., 2023, Legal limits to the use of CO2 removal, Science, Vol: 382, Pages: 772-774, ISSN: 0036-8075

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has indicated that to hold global warming to 1.5°C, consistent with the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions need to be reduced to net zero by around mid-century (1). This global goal can be achieved by following various technologically feasible emissions pathways (1), but the range of possible strategies create legal and policy uncertainty regarding the emissions reductions required by states. Pathways differ in their rates of gross and net CO2 emission reductions, their corresponding dependence on CO2 removal (CDR) to stay within the cumulative emissions limit imposed by the global temperature goal (2), and the type of CDR they intend to deploy. In the lead up to this year’s United Nations (UN) Climate Conference (COP28) in Dubai, we present scientific and legal bases for our argument that emission-reduction pathways that depend heavily on CDR may contravene norms and principles of international law.

Journal article

Xie J, Martin M, Rogelj J, Staffell Iet al., 2023, Distributional labor challenges and opportunities of decarbonizing the US power system, Nature Climate Change, Vol: 13, Pages: 1203-1212, ISSN: 1758-678X

The transition towards a low-carbon power system presents challenges and opportunities to the workforce with important implications for Just Transitions. Studies of thesedistributional labor impacts could benefit from tighter linkages between energy and employment modeling. Here, we couple a power sector optimization model, an employment impact model, and demographic databases to understand state-level job characteristics and societal implications of low-carbon transitions in the US. While decarbonization brings consistent job growth, it heightens the need for human capital investments and supply chainrestructuring. Major fossil fuel-producing states need to prepare for fewer mining jobs under the US Long-Term Strategy, so other opportunities should be created or seized. Lowest-skilled workers will experience more uncertain employment outcomes. Expanding renewable energy could improve opportunities for women in fossil fuel-dependent states, but not enough to disrupt the national gender status quo. This work provides a new quantitative perspective to inform proactive Just Transition policies.

Journal article

Rogelj J, 2023, The UK's rollback of climate policies will cost its citizens and the world, NATURE, Vol: 622, Pages: 9-9, ISSN: 0028-0836

Journal article

Gambhir A, Mittal S, Lamboll R, Grant N, bernie D, gohar L, Hawkes A, Koberle A, Rogelj J, lowe Jet al., 2023, Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 2041-1723

Understanding how 1.5oC pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5 o C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment, is critical for planning resilient pathways. We use an integrated assessment model to explore potential pathway adjustments starting in 2025 and 2030, following the arrival of new information. The 1.5 oC target remains achievable in the model, in light of some adverse information, provided a broad portfolio of technologies and measures is still available. If multiple pieces of adverse information arrive simultaneously, average annual emissions reductions near 3 GtCO 2/yr for the first five years followingthe pathway adjustment, compared to 2 GtCO 2 /yr in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic began. Moreover, in these scenarios of multiple simultaneous adverse information, by 2050 mitigation costs are 4-5 times as high as a no adverse information scenario, highlighting the criticality of developing a wide range of mitigation options, including energy demand reduction options.

Journal article

Waring B, Gurgel A, Koberle A, Paltsev S, Rogelj Jet al., 2023, Natural Climate Solutions must embrace multiple perspectives to ensure synergy with sustainable development, Frontiers in Climate, Vol: 5, Pages: 1-7, ISSN: 2624-9553

To limit global warming to well below 2°C, immediate emissions reductions must be coupled with active removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. 'Natural Climate Solutions' (NCS) achieve atmospheric CO2 reduction through the conservation, restoration, or altered management of natural ecosystems, 1,2 with enormous potential to deliver 'win-win-win' outcomes for climate, nature and society.Yet the supply of high-quality NCS projects does not meet market demand, and projects already underway often fail to deliver their promised benefits, due to a complex set of interacting ecological, social, and financial constraints. How can these cross-sectoral challenges be surmounted? Here we draw from expert elicitation surveys and workshops with professionals across the ecological, sociological, and economic sciences, evaluating differing perspectives on NCS, and suggesting how these might be integrated to address urgent environmental challenges. We demonstrate that funders' perceptions of operational, political, and regulatory risk strongly shape the kinds of NCS projects that are implemented, and the locations where they occur. Because of this, greenhouse gas removal through NCS may fall far short of technical potential.Moreover, socioecological co-benefits of NCS are unlikely to be realized unless the local communities engaged with these projects are granted ownership over implementation and outcomes.

Journal article

Rogelj J, Fransen T, den Elzen MGJ, Lamboll RD, Schumer C, Kuramochi T, Hans F, Mooldijk S, Portugal-Pereira Jet al., 2023, Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk., Science, Vol: 380, Pages: 1014-1016

Looking at policies instead of promises shows that global climate targets may be missed by a large margin.

Journal article

Forster PM, Smith CJ, Walsh T, Lamb WF, Lamboll R, Hauser M, Ribes A, Rosen D, Gillett N, Palmer MD, Rogelj J, von Schuckmann K, Seneviratne SI, Trewin B, Zhang X, Allen M, Andrew R, Birt A, Borger A, Boyer T, Broersma JA, Cheng L, Dentener F, Friedlingstein P, Gutierrez JM, Guetschow J, Hall B, Ishii M, Jenkins S, Lan X, Lee J-Y, Morice C, Kadow C, Kennedy J, Killick R, Minx JC, Naik V, Peters GP, Pirani A, Pongratz J, Schleussner C-F, Szopa S, Thorne P, Rohde R, Rojas Corradi M, Schumacher D, Vose R, Zickfeld K, Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai Pet al., 2023, Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scaleindicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DATA, Vol: 15, Pages: 2295-2327, ISSN: 1866-3508

Journal article

Forster P, Pirani A, Rosen D, Rogelj J, Cook Jet al., 2023, Climate science as foundation for global climate negotiations, Environmental Research: Climate, Vol: 2, Pages: 023002-023002

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>One of the successes of COP26 (the 26th Conference of the Parties) was the prominence of climate science and its implications. Science was written into the <jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cop26_auv_2f_cover_decision.pdf" xlink:type="simple">Glasgow Climate Pact</jats:ext-link>, recognizing ‘the importance of the best available science for effective climate action and policy making’. This paper discusses the reasons for COP26’s success and reflects on subsequent events at COP27. The continued importance of science in global climate negotiations throughout this critical decade for climate is clear.</jats:p>

Journal article

van de Ven D-J, Mittal S, Gambhir A, Lamboll RD, Doukas H, Giarola S, Hawkes A, Koasidis K, Koberle AC, McJeon H, Perdana S, Peters GP, Rogelj J, Sognnaes I, Vielle M, Nikas Aet al., 2023, A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 13, Pages: 570-+, ISSN: 1758-678X

Journal article

Lamboll R, Nicholls Z, Smith C, Kikstra J, Byers E, Rogelj Jet al., 2023, Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets

<jats:p>The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of carbon dioxide humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative shifts. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and explain differences between them. We present calculation refinements together with robustness checks that increase confidence in RCB estimates. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C is around 250 GtCO2 as of January 2023, around 6 years of current CO2 emissions. This estimate changes to 480 and 60 GtCO2 for a 33% and 66% chance, respectively. Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and potential warming after net zero is reached.&amp;#160;</jats:p>

Other

Pfleiderer P, Sillmann J, Lamboll R, Rogelj J, Schleussner C-Fet al., 2023, Reversing the impact chain

<jats:p>Climate impacts have been studied intensively and our understanding of changes in climate impacts due to anthropogenic activity is impressive (see IPCC AR6). There is, however, a gap between the physical understanding of changes in climate impacts and availability of information that could directly be used by adaptation planners. We argue that this gap is to a large extent a result of the usual modeling chain that is based on a handful of representative emission scenarios.Most climate change studies take a small, predefined set of emission scenarios (SSP2-45, SSP1-26, SSP5-85 etc.) and calculate the global and regional climate impacts resulting from these. Focusing on a limited set of emission scenarios allows us to compare results from different modeling groups and lets us run detailed climate models on each scenario. However, this modeling approach does not align with relevant research questions such as: &amp;#8220;How much can be emitted to avoid a certain impact?&amp;#8221; Or &amp;#8220;what are the emission constraints to limit the probability of experiencing a certain event until 2050 to 10%?&amp;#8221;The presented reversal of the impact chain would help to answer these questions. The idea is to start from a clearly defined impact and evolve uncertainties backwards into the emission space. Doing so, we take the perspective of practitioners who know very well what impacts are of relevance and would like to know how these impacts are related to greenhouse gas emissions.</jats:p>

Other

den Elzen MGJ, Dafnomilis I, Hof AF, Olsson M, Beusen A, Botzen WJW, Kuramochi T, Nascimento L, Rogelj Jet al., 2023, The impact of policy and model uncertainties on emissions projections of the Paris Agreement pledges, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1748-9326

Journal article

Pruetz R, Strefler J, Rogelj J, Fuss Set al., 2023, Understanding the carbon dioxide removal range in 1.5 °C compatible and high overshoot pathways, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2515-7620

Journal article

Rogelj J, 2023, Belgium’s national emission pathway in the context of the global remaining carbon budget, Belgium’s national emission pathway in thecontext of the global remaining carbon budget

This Science Brief assesses the implications of the scientific evidence on carbon budgets presented in thelatest assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for national carbon budgets andemissions reductions in Belgium.Based on the best available science, the global remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°Camounts to 400 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions (GtCO2).The implications of this global remaining carbon budget for Belgium can be explored by using equity andfairness principles to determine a fair national carbon budget share.A variety of principles was applied ranging from approaches that are considered inherently unfair (agrandfathering approach) to approaches that have been proposed by developing country experts.Based on this wide range of distribution keys, the minimum emissions reduction for Belgium that puts theirnational trajectory in line with limiting global warming to 1.5°C and on track to reach net zero greenhousegas emissions by mid‐century is ‐69% in 2030 relative to 1990 levels.If Belgium’s net zero greenhouse gas target would be advanced from 2050 to 2042, the correspondingemissions reductions in 2030 would amount to ‐61% relative to 1990 levels

Report

Rogelj J, 2023, Net zero targets in science and policy, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1748-9326

Journal article

Busch T, Cho CHH, Hoepner AGF, Michelon G, Rogelj Jet al., 2023, Corporate Greenhouse Gas Emissions' Data and the Urgent Need for a Science-Led Just Transition: Introduction to a Thematic Symposium, JOURNAL OF BUSINESS ETHICS, Vol: 182, Pages: 897-901, ISSN: 0167-4544

Journal article

Xie JJ, Martin M, Rogelj J, Staffell Iet al., 2023, Decarbonizing the US power system presents diverse challenges and opportunities in the changing employment landscape

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>The transition towards a low-carbon power system presents immense challenges and opportunities to the workforce. Studies of the energy transition’s regional and distributional employment impacts are mainly qualitative or disconnected from prevailing energy modeling scenarios. Here, we couple a power sector optimization model, an employment impact model, and demographic databases to further understand the state-level job characteristics and societal implications in the US. Major fossil fuel producers risk job losses even without new emission reduction policies, requiring the reskilling of up to 30% of the current workforce. The results highlight the need for investments in human capital and a supply chain restructuring. Blue-collar workers are crucial to delivering the transition. Expanding renewable energy could improve job opportunities for women in states dependent on fossil fuels, but not enough to disrupt the national status quo. This work sets a new quantitative perspective to inform proactive local Just Transition policymaking.</jats:p>

Journal article

Kloenne U, Nauels A, Pearson P, DeConto RMM, Findlay HS, Hugelius G, Robinson A, Rogelj J, Schuur EAG, Stroeve J, Schleussner C-Fet al., 2023, Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimize risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 13, Pages: 9-11, ISSN: 1758-678X

Journal article

Kikstra JS, Nicholls ZRJ, Smith CJ, Lewis J, Lamboll RD, Byers E, Sandstad M, Meinshausen M, Gidden MJ, Rogelj J, Kriegler E, Peters GP, Fuglestvedt JS, Skeie RB, Samset BH, Wienpahl L, van Vuuren DP, van der Wijst K-I, Al Khourdajie A, Forster PM, Reisinger A, Schaeffer R, Riahi Ket al., 2022, The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures, GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, Vol: 15, Pages: 9075-9109, ISSN: 1991-959X

Journal article

Nicholls Z, Meinshausen M, Lewis J, Smith CJ, Forster PM, Fuglestvedt JS, Rogelj J, Kikstra JS, Riahi K, Byers Eet al., 2022, Changes in IPCC scenario assessment emulators between SR1.5 and AR6 unraveled, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 49, ISSN: 0094-8276

The IPCC's scientific assessment of the timing of net-zero emissions and 2030 emission reduction targets consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C rests on large scenario databases. Updates to this assessment, such as between the IPCC's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) of warming and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), are the result of intertwined, sometimes opaque, factors. Here we isolate one factor: the Earth System Model emulators used to estimate the global warming implications of scenarios. We show that warming projections using AR6-calibrated emulators are consistent, to within around 0.1°C, with projections made by the emulators used in SR1.5. The consistency is due to two almost compensating changes: the increase in assessed historical warming between SR1.5 (based on AR5) and AR6, and a reduction in projected warming due to improved agreement between the emulators' response to emissions and the assessment to which it is calibrated.

Journal article

Lamboll R, Nicholls Z, Smith C, Kikstra J, Byers E, Rogelj Jet al., 2022, Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of carbon dioxide humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative shifts. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and explain differences between them. We present calculation refinements together with robustness checks that increase confidence in RCB estimates. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C is around 300 GtCO2 as of January 2022, less than 8 years of current emissions. This estimate changes to 530 and 110 GtCO2 for a 33% and 66% chance, respectively. Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and the potential warming after net zero is reached.</jats:p>

Journal article

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