Publications
178 results found
Xie J, Martin M, Rogelj J, et al., 2023, Distributional labor challenges and opportunities of decarbonizing the US power system, Nature Climate Change, Vol: 13, Pages: 1203-1212, ISSN: 1758-678X
The transition towards a low-carbon power system presents challenges and opportunities to the workforce with important implications for Just Transitions. Studies of thesedistributional labor impacts could benefit from tighter linkages between energy and employment modeling. Here, we couple a power sector optimization model, an employment impact model, and demographic databases to understand state-level job characteristics and societal implications of low-carbon transitions in the US. While decarbonization brings consistent job growth, it heightens the need for human capital investments and supply chainrestructuring. Major fossil fuel-producing states need to prepare for fewer mining jobs under the US Long-Term Strategy, so other opportunities should be created or seized. Lowest-skilled workers will experience more uncertain employment outcomes. Expanding renewable energy could improve opportunities for women in fossil fuel-dependent states, but not enough to disrupt the national gender status quo. This work provides a new quantitative perspective to inform proactive Just Transition policies.
Rogelj J, 2023, The UK's rollback of climate policies will cost its citizens and the world, NATURE, Vol: 622, Pages: 9-9, ISSN: 0028-0836
Gambhir A, Mittal S, Lamboll R, et al., 2023, Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 2041-1723
Understanding how 1.5oC pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5 o C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment, is critical for planning resilient pathways. We use an integrated assessment model to explore potential pathway adjustments starting in 2025 and 2030, following the arrival of new information. The 1.5 oC target remains achievable in the model, in light of some adverse information, provided a broad portfolio of technologies and measures is still available. If multiple pieces of adverse information arrive simultaneously, average annual emissions reductions near 3 GtCO 2/yr for the first five years followingthe pathway adjustment, compared to 2 GtCO 2 /yr in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic began. Moreover, in these scenarios of multiple simultaneous adverse information, by 2050 mitigation costs are 4-5 times as high as a no adverse information scenario, highlighting the criticality of developing a wide range of mitigation options, including energy demand reduction options.
Waring B, Gurgel A, Koberle A, et al., 2023, Natural Climate Solutions must embrace multiple perspectives to ensure synergy with sustainable development, Frontiers in Climate, Vol: 5, Pages: 1-7, ISSN: 2624-9553
To limit global warming to well below 2°C, immediate emissions reductions must be coupled with active removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. 'Natural Climate Solutions' (NCS) achieve atmospheric CO2 reduction through the conservation, restoration, or altered management of natural ecosystems, 1,2 with enormous potential to deliver 'win-win-win' outcomes for climate, nature and society.Yet the supply of high-quality NCS projects does not meet market demand, and projects already underway often fail to deliver their promised benefits, due to a complex set of interacting ecological, social, and financial constraints. How can these cross-sectoral challenges be surmounted? Here we draw from expert elicitation surveys and workshops with professionals across the ecological, sociological, and economic sciences, evaluating differing perspectives on NCS, and suggesting how these might be integrated to address urgent environmental challenges. We demonstrate that funders' perceptions of operational, political, and regulatory risk strongly shape the kinds of NCS projects that are implemented, and the locations where they occur. Because of this, greenhouse gas removal through NCS may fall far short of technical potential.Moreover, socioecological co-benefits of NCS are unlikely to be realized unless the local communities engaged with these projects are granted ownership over implementation and outcomes.
Rogelj J, Fransen T, den Elzen MGJ, et al., 2023, Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk., Science, Vol: 380, Pages: 1014-1016
Looking at policies instead of promises shows that global climate targets may be missed by a large margin.
Forster PM, Smith CJ, Walsh T, et al., 2023, Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scaleindicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DATA, Vol: 15, Pages: 2295-2327, ISSN: 1866-3508
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- Citations: 2
Forster P, Pirani A, Rosen D, et al., 2023, Climate science as foundation for global climate negotiations, Environmental Research: Climate, Vol: 2, Pages: 023002-023002
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>One of the successes of COP26 (the 26th Conference of the Parties) was the prominence of climate science and its implications. Science was written into the <jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cop26_auv_2f_cover_decision.pdf" xlink:type="simple">Glasgow Climate Pact</jats:ext-link>, recognizing ‘the importance of the best available science for effective climate action and policy making’. This paper discusses the reasons for COP26’s success and reflects on subsequent events at COP27. The continued importance of science in global climate negotiations throughout this critical decade for climate is clear.</jats:p>
van de Ven D-J, Mittal S, Gambhir A, et al., 2023, A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 13, Pages: 570-+, ISSN: 1758-678X
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- Citations: 3
Lamboll R, Nicholls Z, Smith C, et al., 2023, Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
<jats:p>The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of carbon dioxide humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative shifts. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and explain differences between them. We present calculation refinements together with robustness checks that increase confidence in RCB estimates. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C is around 250 GtCO2 as of January 2023, around 6 years of current CO2 emissions. This estimate changes to 480 and 60 GtCO2 for a 33% and 66% chance, respectively. Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and potential warming after net zero is reached.&#160;</jats:p>
Pfleiderer P, Sillmann J, Lamboll R, et al., 2023, Reversing the impact chain
<jats:p>Climate impacts have been studied intensively and our understanding of changes in climate impacts due to anthropogenic activity is impressive (see IPCC AR6). There is, however, a gap between the physical understanding of changes in climate impacts and availability of information that could directly be used by adaptation planners. We argue that this gap is to a large extent a result of the usual modeling chain that is based on a handful of representative emission scenarios.Most climate change studies take a small, predefined set of emission scenarios (SSP2-45, SSP1-26, SSP5-85 etc.) and calculate the global and regional climate impacts resulting from these. Focusing on a limited set of emission scenarios allows us to compare results from different modeling groups and lets us run detailed climate models on each scenario. However, this modeling approach does not align with relevant research questions such as: &#8220;How much can be emitted to avoid a certain impact?&#8221; Or &#8220;what are the emission constraints to limit the probability of experiencing a certain event until 2050 to 10%?&#8221;The presented reversal of the impact chain would help to answer these questions. The idea is to start from a clearly defined impact and evolve uncertainties backwards into the emission space. Doing so, we take the perspective of practitioners who know very well what impacts are of relevance and would like to know how these impacts are related to greenhouse gas emissions.</jats:p>
den Elzen MGJ, Dafnomilis I, Hof AF, et al., 2023, The impact of policy and model uncertainties on emissions projections of the Paris Agreement pledges, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1748-9326
Pruetz R, Strefler J, Rogelj J, et al., 2023, Understanding the carbon dioxide removal range in 1.5 °C compatible and high overshoot pathways, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2515-7620
Rogelj J, 2023, Belgium’s national emission pathway in the context of the global remaining carbon budget, Belgium’s national emission pathway in thecontext of the global remaining carbon budget
This Science Brief assesses the implications of the scientific evidence on carbon budgets presented in thelatest assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for national carbon budgets andemissions reductions in Belgium.Based on the best available science, the global remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°Camounts to 400 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions (GtCO2).The implications of this global remaining carbon budget for Belgium can be explored by using equity andfairness principles to determine a fair national carbon budget share.A variety of principles was applied ranging from approaches that are considered inherently unfair (agrandfathering approach) to approaches that have been proposed by developing country experts.Based on this wide range of distribution keys, the minimum emissions reduction for Belgium that puts theirnational trajectory in line with limiting global warming to 1.5°C and on track to reach net zero greenhousegas emissions by mid‐century is ‐69% in 2030 relative to 1990 levels.If Belgium’s net zero greenhouse gas target would be advanced from 2050 to 2042, the correspondingemissions reductions in 2030 would amount to ‐61% relative to 1990 levels
Rogelj J, 2023, Net zero targets in science and policy, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1748-9326
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- Citations: 4
Busch T, Cho CHH, Hoepner AGF, et al., 2023, Corporate Greenhouse Gas Emissions' Data and the Urgent Need for a Science-Led Just Transition: Introduction to a Thematic Symposium, JOURNAL OF BUSINESS ETHICS, Vol: 182, Pages: 897-901, ISSN: 0167-4544
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- Citations: 2
Xie JJ, Martin M, Rogelj J, et al., 2023, Decarbonizing the US power system presents diverse challenges and opportunities in the changing employment landscape
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>The transition towards a low-carbon power system presents immense challenges and opportunities to the workforce. Studies of the energy transition’s regional and distributional employment impacts are mainly qualitative or disconnected from prevailing energy modeling scenarios. Here, we couple a power sector optimization model, an employment impact model, and demographic databases to further understand the state-level job characteristics and societal implications in the US. Major fossil fuel producers risk job losses even without new emission reduction policies, requiring the reskilling of up to 30% of the current workforce. The results highlight the need for investments in human capital and a supply chain restructuring. Blue-collar workers are crucial to delivering the transition. Expanding renewable energy could improve job opportunities for women in states dependent on fossil fuels, but not enough to disrupt the national status quo. This work sets a new quantitative perspective to inform proactive local Just Transition policymaking.</jats:p>
Lamboll RD, Nicholls ZRJ, Smith CJ, et al., 2023, Author Correction: Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets (Nature Climate Change, (2023), 10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5), Nature Climate Change, ISSN: 1758-678X
In the version of the article initially published, in the “Comparison of recommended result with AR6 WG1 results” section, the sentence now reading “After making all these changes, our best (50%) RCB estimate starting after 2022…” originally said “starting from 2022”. In the Methods, in the sentence now reading “We use a different approach to MAGICC when processing FaIR data because by default, FaIR includes the effects of a substantial solar cycle in future temperatures…”, “future temperatures” originally said “future emissions”. These updates have been made in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.
Lamboll RD, Nicholls ZRJ, Smith CJ, et al., 2023, Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets, Nature Climate Change, ISSN: 1758-678X
The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of CO2 humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5 °C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative adjustments. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and present more recent data, calculation refinements and robustness checks that increase confidence in them. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5 °C is around 250 GtCO2 as of January 2023, equal to around six years of current CO2 emissions. For a 50% chance of 2 °C the RCB is around 1,200 GtCO2. Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and potential warming after net zero CO2.
Xie JJ, Martin M, Rogelj J, et al., 2023, Author Correction: Distributional labour challenges and opportunities for decarbonizing the US power system (Nature Climate Change, (2023), 13, 11, (1203-1212), 10.1038/s41558-023-01802-5), Nature Climate Change, ISSN: 1758-678X
Correction to: Nature Climate Change, published online 2 November 2023. In the version of the article initially published, there was an error in Fig. 1: “100% by 2035” previously read “95% by 2035”. This has been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.
Kloenne U, Nauels A, Pearson P, et al., 2023, Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimize risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 13, Pages: 9-11, ISSN: 1758-678X
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- Citations: 1
Kikstra JS, Nicholls ZRJ, Smith CJ, et al., 2022, The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures, GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, Vol: 15, Pages: 9075-9109, ISSN: 1991-959X
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- Citations: 15
Nicholls Z, Meinshausen M, Lewis J, et al., 2022, Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 49, ISSN: 0094-8276
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- Citations: 3
Lamboll R, Nicholls Z, Smith C, et al., 2022, Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of carbon dioxide humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative shifts. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and explain differences between them. We present calculation refinements together with robustness checks that increase confidence in RCB estimates. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C is around 300 GtCO2 as of January 2022, less than 8 years of current emissions. This estimate changes to 530 and 110 GtCO2 for a 33% and 66% chance, respectively. Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and the potential warming after net zero is reached.</jats:p>
Zakeri B, Paulavets K, Barreto-Gomez L, et al., 2022, Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions, ENERGIES, Vol: 15
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- Citations: 74
Kikstra JS, Nicholls ZRJ, Smith CJ, et al., 2022, The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures
<jats:p>Abstract. While the IPCC’s physical science report usually assesses a handful of future scenarios, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Working Group III report (AR6 WGIII) on climate mitigation assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scenarios. A key task is to assess the global-mean temperature outcomes of these scenarios in a consistent manner, given the challenge that the emission scenarios from different integrated assessment models come with different sectoral and gas-to-gas coverage and cannot all be assessed consistently by complex Earth System Models. In this work, we describe the “climate assessment” workflow and its methods, including infilling of missing emissions and emissions harmonisation as applied to 1,202 mitigation scenarios in AR6 WGIII. We evaluate the global-mean temperature projections and effective radiative forcing characteristics (ERF) of climate emulators FaIRv1.6.2, MAGICCv7.5.3, and CICERO-SCM, discuss overshoot severity of the mitigation pathways using overshoot degree years, and look at an interpretation of compatibility with the Paris Agreement. We find that the lowest class of emission scenarios that limit global warming to “1.5 °C (with a probability of greater than 50 %) with no or limited overshoot” includes 90 scenarios for MAGICCv7.5.3, and 196 for FaIRv1.6.2. For the MAGICCv7.5.3 results, “limited overshoot” typically implies exceedance of median temperature projections of up to about 0.1 °C for up to a few decades, before returning to below 1.5 °C by or before the year 2100. For more than half of the scenarios of this category that comply with three criteria for being “Paris-compatible”, including net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, are projected to see median temperatures decline by about 0.3–0.4 °C after peaking at 1.5–1.6 °C in 2035–2055. We compare the methods applied in AR6 with the methods used f
Kikstra JS, Nicholls ZRJ, Smith CJ, et al., 2022, Supplementary material to "The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures"
Schleussner C-F, Ganti G, Rogelj J, et al., 2022, An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives, COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT, Vol: 3
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- Citations: 18
Gibson M, Pereira JP, Slade R, et al., 2022, Agent-based modelling of future dairy and plant-based milk consumption for UK climate targets, JASSS-THE JOURNAL OF ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES AND SOCIAL SIMULATION, Vol: 25, ISSN: 1460-7425
A reduction in the production and consumption of meat and dairy across much of the world is critical for climate change mitigation, the alleviation of ecological stress, and improved health. We update an agent-based model (ABM) of historic UK milk consumption and apply it to scenarios of dairy reduction and adoption of plant-based milk (PBM) out to 2050. The updated model is comprised of a cognitive function, where agents perceive the physical, health and environmental characteristics of milk choice, which is modified by habit and social influence. We use European Social Survey 2018 and British Social Attitudes 2008 survey data to empirically inform the model. Taking a backcasting approach, we calibrate parameters against published UK dairy reduction targets (2030 and 2050), and test how different price relationships, and characterisations of environmental concern, may affect simulated milk consumption from 2020 to 2050. Scenarios for core targets (20% less dairy by 2030 and 35% by 2050) largely produced plausible consumption trajectories. However, at current pricing of dairy and PBM, simulated consumption was mostly unable to deliver on desired core targets, but this improved markedly with dairy prices set to organic levels. The influence of changing environmental concern on milk choice resulted in higher levels of dairy milk reduction. When modelled as transient, intense shocks to public concern, consumption patterns did not fundamentally change. However, small, incremental but permanent changes to concern did produce structural changes to consumption patterns, with dairy falling below plant-based alternatives at around 2030. This study is the first to apply an ABM in the context of scenarios for dairy reduction and PBM adoption in service to UK climate-related consumption targets. It can serve as valuable bottom-up, alternative, evidence on the feasibility of dietary shift targets, and poses policy implications for how to address impediments to behavioural change
Koberle AC, Vandyck T, Guivarch C, et al., 2022, The cost of mitigation revisited (Nov, 10.1038/s41558-021-01203-6, 2021), NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 12, Pages: 298-298, ISSN: 1758-678X
Allen MR, Peters GP, Shine KP, et al., 2022, Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets, NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2397-3722
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- Citations: 26
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