Imperial College London
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ProfessorJoeriRogelj

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Centre for Environmental Policy

Professor of Climate Science and Policy
 
 
 
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Contact

 

j.rogelj Website

 
 
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Location

 

304Weeks BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Tokarska:2019:10.1029/2019EF001312,
author = {Tokarska, KB and Zickfeld, K and Rogelj, J},
doi = {10.1029/2019EF001312},
journal = {Earths Future},
pages = {1283--1295},
title = {Path independence of carbon budgets when meeting a stringent global mean temperature target after an overshoot},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001312},
volume = {7},
year = {2019}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Emission pathways that are consistent with meeting the Paris Agreement goal of holding global mean temperature rise well below 2 °C often assume a temperature overshoot. In such overshoot scenarios, a given temperature limit is first exceeded and later returned to, under the assumption of largescale deliberate carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere. Here we show that although such strategy might result in a reversal of global mean temperature, the carbon cycle exhibits path dependence. After an overshoot, more carbon is stored in the ocean and less on land compared to a scenario with the same cumulative CO2 emissions but no overshoot. The nearpath independence of surface air temperature arises despite the path dependence in the carbon cycle, as it is offset by path dependence in the thermal response of the ocean. Such behavior has important implications for carbon budgets (i.e. the total amount of CO2 emissions consistent with holding warming to a given level), which do not differ much among scenarios that entail different levels of overshoot. Therefore, the concept of a carbon budget remains robust for scenarios with low levels of overshoot (up to 300 Pg C overshoot considered here) but should be used with caution for higher levels of overshoot, particularly for limiting the environmental change in dimensions other than global mean temperature rise.
AU  - Tokarska,KB
AU  - Zickfeld,K
AU  - Rogelj,J
DO  - 10.1029/2019EF001312
EP  - 1295
PY  - 2019///
SN  - 2328-4277
SP  - 1283
TI  - Path independence of carbon budgets when meeting a stringent global mean temperature target after an overshoot
T2  - Earths Future
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001312
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000500396300001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001312
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/77351
VL  - 7
ER  -
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