Imperial College London
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ProfessorJoeriRogelj

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Centre for Environmental Policy

Professor of Climate Science and Policy
 
 
 
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Contact

 

j.rogelj Website

 
 
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Location

 

304Weeks BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Smith:2020:10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3,
author = {Smith, SJ and Chateau, J and Dorheim, K and Drouet, L and Durand-Lasserve, O and Fricko, O and Fujimori, S and Hanaoka, T and Harmsen, M and Hilaire, J and Keramidas, K and Klimont, Z and Luderer, G and Moura, MCP and Riahi, K and Rogelj, J and Sano, F and van, Vuuren DP and Wada, K},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3},
journal = {Climatic Change},
pages = {1427--1442},
title = {Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3},
volume = {163},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.
AU  - Smith,SJ
AU  - Chateau,J
AU  - Dorheim,K
AU  - Drouet,L
AU  - Durand-Lasserve,O
AU  - Fricko,O
AU  - Fujimori,S
AU  - Hanaoka,T
AU  - Harmsen,M
AU  - Hilaire,J
AU  - Keramidas,K
AU  - Klimont,Z
AU  - Luderer,G
AU  - Moura,MCP
AU  - Riahi,K
AU  - Rogelj,J
AU  - Sano,F
AU  - van,Vuuren DP
AU  - Wada,K
DO  - 10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3
EP  - 1442
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 0165-0009
SP  - 1427
TI  - Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis
T2  - Climatic Change
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3
UR  - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-020-02794-3
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/83045
VL  - 163
ER  -
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