Imperial College London
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ProfessorJoeriRogelj

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Centre for Environmental Policy

Professor of Climate Science and Policy
 
 
 
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Contact

 

j.rogelj Website

 
 
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Location

 

304Weeks BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Matthews:2021:10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9,
author = {Matthews, HD and Tokarska, KB and Rogelj, J and Smith, CJ and MacDougall, AH and Haustein, K and Mengis, N and Sippel, S and Forster, PM and Knutti, R},
doi = {10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9},
journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
pages = {1--11},
title = {An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9},
volume = {2},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2.
AU  - Matthews,HD
AU  - Tokarska,KB
AU  - Rogelj,J
AU  - Smith,CJ
AU  - MacDougall,AH
AU  - Haustein,K
AU  - Mengis,N
AU  - Sippel,S
AU  - Forster,PM
AU  - Knutti,R
DO  - 10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9
EP  - 11
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 2662-4435
SP  - 1
TI  - An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget
T2  - Communications Earth & Environment
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000665652000001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00064-9
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/90424
VL  - 2
ER  -
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