Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

Professor Jim Skea CBE FRSE FEI HonFSE

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Centre for Environmental Policy

Emeritus Professor
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 6288j.skea Website

 
 
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Assistant

 

Ms Maria Eugenia Gabao Lisboa +44 (0)20 7594 8804

 
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Location

 

208Weeks BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Skea:2021:10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120736,
author = {Skea, J and van, Diemen R and Portugal-Pereira, J and Al, Khourdajie A},
doi = {10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120736},
journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change},
title = {Outlooks, explorations and normative scenarios: approaches to global energy futures compared},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120736},
volume = {168},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - This paper compares recent global energy scenarios developed by governments, international bodies, businesses and the scientific community. We divide the scenarios into three broad classes: outlooks which extrapolate current trends and anticipate policy developments; exploratory scenarios which may consider disruptions; and normative scenarios which derive energy system pathways consistent with a long-term goal. Many organisations are starting to blend outlooks, exploratory and normative approaches. The paper covers trends in primary energy demand to 2040, snapshots of the energy mix in 2040, drivers of demand, and the evolution of scenarios projections developed in recent years. We find sharp divergences between outlooks and normative scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement on climate change. All published outlooks imply that the world is not on an energy pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement. We conclude with an assessment of emerging themes including: scenario benchmarking and group think; adaptation of scenarios to real world developments; and the plausibility of different types of scenarios. We propose that more dialogue between scenario developers from the scientific community and those working in governments and commercial organisations could be beneficial. Research focusing on the organisational processes through which scenarios are developed could usefully extend this work.
AU  - Skea,J
AU  - van,Diemen R
AU  - Portugal-Pereira,J
AU  - Al,Khourdajie A
DO  - 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120736
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0040-1625
TI  - Outlooks, explorations and normative scenarios: approaches to global energy futures compared
T2  - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120736
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/88540
VL  - 168
ER  -
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