Imperial College London

Dr Juan F Vesga

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Research Associate



+44 (0)20 7594 3290j.vesga10




Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus





My research at the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology focuses on applying mathematical and statistical methods to assess the dynamics of infectious disease and the impact of interventions. I am interested in the interface of health systems and infectious disease epidemiology with my main focus being on Tuberculosis and HIV.      


As part of the Global Health Analytics group, we use mathematical modelling methods to address the impact of interventions in different epidemic settings, such as India, Eastern European countries and sub-Saharan Africa. 

My current research looks at the target product profiles of future preventive therapy regimens against TB in varying settings of TB and HIV burden.  


My research has looked at the transmission dynamics of HIV epidemics in Latin America and the impact of interventions. I have also developed tools for assessing a nation-wide "Treatment as Prevention" programme for HIV in Brazil, making use of mathematical models and analysis of routinely collected data.

Selected Publications

Journal Articles

Mangal TD, Pascom ARP, Vesga JF, et al., 2019, Estimating HIV incidence from surveillance data indicates a second wave of infections in Brazil, Epidemics, Vol:27, ISSN:1755-4365, Pages:77-85

Vesga JF, Hallett TB, Reid MJA, et al., 2019, Assessing tuberculosis control priorities in high-burden settings: a modelling approach, The Lancet Global Health, Vol:7, ISSN:2214-109X, Pages:e585-e595

Reid MJA, Arinaminpathy N, Bloom A, et al., 2019, Building a tuberculosis-free world: The Lancet Commission on tuberculosis, The Lancet, Vol:393, ISSN:0140-6736, Pages:1331-1384

Maheu-Giroux M, Vesga J, Diabate S, et al., 2017, Population-level impact of an accelerated HIV response plan to reach the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target in Côte d’Ivoire: Insights from mathematical modeling, PLOS Medicine, Vol:14, ISSN:1549-1277

Maheu-Giroux M, Baral S, Vesga JF, et al., Anal intercourse among female sex workers in Côted’Ivoire: prevalence, determinants, and model-basedestimates of the population-level impact on HIVtransmission, American Journal of Epidemiology

Maheu-Giroux M, Vesga JF, Diabate S, et al., 2017, Changing dynamics of HIV transmission in Côte d'Ivoire: modeling which key populations acquired and transmitted infections and estimating the impact of past HIV interventions (1976-2015), JAIDS - Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, Vol:75, ISSN:1525-4135, Pages:517-527

Vesga JF, Cori A, van Sighem A, et al., 2014, Estimating HIV incidence from case-report data: method and an application in Colombia, AIDS, Vol:28, ISSN:0269-9370, Pages:S489-S496

Boily M-C, Masse B, Alsallaq R, et al., 2012, HIV Treatment as Prevention: Considerations in the Design, Conduct, and Analysis of Cluster Randomized Controlled Trials of Combination HIV Prevention, PLOS Medicine, Vol:9, ISSN:1549-1277

Hidalgo M, Miranda J, Heredia D, et al., 2011, Outbreak of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in Córdoba, Colombia., Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz, Vol:106, Pages:117-118

More Publications