36 results found
Pawlak J, Faghih Imani A, Sivakumar A, 2021, How do household activities drive electricity demand? Applying activity-based modelling in the context of the United Kingdom, Energy Research and Social Science, ISSN: 2214-6296
Manca F, Sivakumar A, Pawlak J, et al., 2021, Will we fly again? modeling air travel demand in light of COVID-19 through a London case study, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 0361-1981
The COVID-19 pandemic and associated travel restrictions have created an unprecedented challenge for the air transport industry, which before the pandemic was facing almost the exact opposite set of problems. Instead of the growing demand and need for capacity expansion warring against environmental concerns, the sector is now facing a slump in demand and the continuing uncertainty about the impacts of the pandemic on people’s willingness to fly. To shed light on consumer attitudes toward air travel during and post the pandemic, this study presents an analysis that draws on recently collected survey data (April–July 2020), including both revealed and stated preference components, of 388 respondents who traveled from one of the six London, U.K., airports in 2019. Several travel scenarios considering the circumstances and attitudes related to COVID-19 are explored. The data is analyzed using a hybrid choice model to integrate latent constructs related to attitudinal characteristics. The analysis confirms the impact of consumers’ health concerns on their willingness to travel, as a function of travel characteristics, that is, cost and number of transfers. It also provides insights into preference heterogeneity as a function of sociodemographic characteristics. However, no significant effects are observed concerning perceptions of safety arising from wearing a mask, or concerns over the necessity to quarantine. Results also suggest that some respondents may perceive virtual substitutes for business travel, for example video calls and similar software, as only a temporary measure, and seek to return to traveling as soon as it is possible to do so safely.The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has affected air travel to an unprecedented extent, leading to the worst-ever crisis of the air transport sector (1). Airlines worldwide have faced a huge drop in demand, for example 98% drop in passengers for 6 weeks in a row over April and May 2020, as stated by the Airpor
Pawlak J, Circella G, 2021, ICT, Virtual and In-Person Activity Participation, and Travel Choice Analysis, International Encyclopedia of Transportation, Editors: Vickerman, Publisher: Elsevier, ISBN: 9780081026724
In an increasingly globalised world, despite reductions in costs and time, transportation has become even more important as a facilitator of economic and human interaction; this is reflected in technical advances in transportation systems, ...
Calastri C, Pawlak J, Batley R, 2021, Participation in online activities while travelling: an application of the MDCEV model in the context of rail travel, Transportation, ISSN: 0049-4488
Travel-based multitasking, i.e. using travel time to conduct enjoyable and/or productive activities, is the subject of an increasing number of theoretical and empirical studies. Most existing studies focus on modelling the choice of which activities people conduct while travelling, and a limited number of papers also focuses on their duration. The novelty of this study with respect to this literature is two-fold. Firstly, we specifically study the engagement in different online activities while travelling, and apply the state-of-the-art Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) model to jointly model the choice and duration of multiple activities. We apply this model to data collected face-to-face from train passengers in the UK. We find that activity choice and duration is explained by both passenger and trip characteristics, especially trip purpose, ticket type and day/time of the trip. Secondly, we show how such modelling can assist in investment appraisal, in particular by providing insights into lower- and upper- bound estimates of the proportion of the entire travel time spent working, itself of importance in, for example, valuation of business travel time using the so-called Hensher Equation. We present a detailed discussion of how the findings from our work contribute to the broader discourse around the nature of travel time and its valuation.
Manca F, Sivakumar A, Pawlak J, et al., 2021, Will We Fly Again? Modelling Air Travel Demand in Light of COVID-19 through a London Case Study, 100th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting
Hou H, Pawlak J, Sivakumar A, et al., 2020, An approach for building occupancy modelling considering the urban context, Building and Environment, Vol: 183, Pages: 1-18, ISSN: 0360-1323
Building occupancy, which reflects occupant presence, movements and activities within the building space, is a key factor to consider in building energy modelling and simulation. Characterising complex occupant behaviours and their determinants poses challenges from the sensing, modelling, interpretation and prediction perspectives. Past studies typically applied time-dependent models to predict regular occupancy patterns for commercial buildings. However, this prevalent reliance on purely time-of-day effects is typically not sufficient to accurately characterise the complex occupancy patterns as they may vary with building’s surrounding conditions, i.e. the urban environment. Therefore, this research proposes a conceptual framework to incorporate the interactions between urban systems and building occupancy. Under the framework, we propose a novel modelling methodology relying on competing risk hazard formulation to analyse the occupancy of a case study building in London, UK. The occupancy profiles were inferred from the Wi-Fi connection logs extracted from the existing Wi-Fi infrastructure. When compared with the conventional discrete-time Markov Chain Model (MCM), the hazard-based modelling approach was able to better capture the duration dependent nature of the transition probabilities as well as incorporate and quantify the influence of the local environment on occupancy transitions. The work has demonstrated that this approach enables a convenient and flexible incorporation of urban dependenciesleading to accurate occupancy predictions whilst providing the ability to interpret the impacts of urban systems on building occupancy. Keywords: Urban system; Competing risk hazard model; Building occupancy simulation; Wi4 Fi connection data
Pawlak J, Circella G, Mahmassani H, et al., 2020, Information and Communication Technologies(ICT), Activity Decisions,and Travel Choices: 20 years into the Second Millennium and where do we go next?, Washington DC, Publisher: Transportaton Research Board, Pages: 1-12
CENTENNIAL PAPERSStanding Committee on Effects of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on Travel Choices (ADB20)Giovanni Circella, ChairInformation and Communication Technologies(ICT), Activity Decisions,and Travel Choices: 20 years into the Second Millennium and where do we go next?JACEKPAWLAK,Imperial College LondonGIOVANNICIRCELLA, University of California, Davis andGeorgia Institute of TechnologyHANIS.MAHMASSANI, Northwestern UniversityPATRICIAL.MOKHTARIAN, Georgia Institute of TechnologyABSTRACTInformation and Communication Technologies, or ICT,have rapidly emerged asan integral element of everyday life, interactingin an essential manner with mobility and the activity patterns that engender it. The current paper reflects uponthistrendandthe opportunities and challenges itrepresents.Givenmore than three decades of research in the domain of interactions between ICT, activity decisions and travel choices, we acknowledgethe elaborate, disruptiveand oftenunexpected waysalong which ICT interact with society.Tosupport the objective of theADB20 Committee, namely tosupportand promote theemerging research questions, we identifya number of technological, societal and behavioral trends related to ICT and mobility that are likelyto be major driving forces for activity-travel behavior considerations in the next 15 years. Those include democratization of technology; personalization; shared and commoditized mobility; automation;data as the new currency; next generation connectivity, including 5G; evolving social media and socialization; new forms of shopping; digital twins;activity fragmentation; andmultitasking.We also observe that inevitably, theincreasingly interlocking relationshipbetween ICT and mobility will bring challengesrelated to balancing efficiency vs. redundancy and resilience, ensuring transparency, susceptibility to malicious activitiesandtackling the digital divide. We argue that those should not be seen as barriers to realization of the ulti
Pawlak J, 2020, Travel-based multitasking: review of the role of digital activities and connectivity, Transport Reviews, Vol: 40, Pages: 429-456, ISSN: 0144-1647
Travel-based multitasking, also referred to as travel time use, is now a well-established concept, whose existence is supported by the technological trajectories, with mobile information and communication technologies (ICT) and vehicle automation working together to allow travel time to be more productive and enjoyable. Despite existence of reviews of travel-time multitasking studies, the systematic overview of the role digital activities, i.e. those that necessarily require modern ICT equipment to participate, has been limited, often wrapped under the umbrella term “use of ICT”, potentially obscuring their complexity and sophistication. Similarly, the role of connectivity and its attributes, e.g. speed (bandwidth), reliability, price, ease of use, data allowance or security, deserves a more systematic overview given its key role in enabling digital online activities and hence the travel-based multitasking options. This paper provides a review of 77 empirical travel-based multitasking-studies that explored the role of digital activities or connectivity. In particular, the review discusses the existing typologies of digital activities, dividing them into hardware-centric, function-centric or a combination of both (mixed). Subsequently, key contributions are discussed with respect to the treatment of digital activities and connectivity and its attributes. Based on the review, it is possible to observe that the existing studies have looked only at a handful of rather restricted online activities that do not sufficiently capture the sophistication with which individuals interact with the virtual world nowadays. Furthermore, the role of connectivity, although deeply embedded in the “C” of the “ICT” concept, has not been looked at or modelled in any detail in studies related to travel time use or its quality. This existing shortcoming might have resulted in an insufficient understanding of the mechanisms driving travel time use, the ass
Pawlak J, Imani AF, Sivakumar A, 2020, A microeconomic framework for integrated agent-based modelling of activity-travel patterns and energy consumption, Procedia Computer Science, Vol: 170, Pages: 785-790, ISSN: 1877-0509
The sophistication in the demand management approaches in both transport and energy sectors and their interaction call for modelling approaches that consider both sectors jointly. For agent-based microsimulation models of travel demand and energy consumption, this implies the necessity to ensure consistent representation of user behaviour with respect to mobility and energy consumption behaviours across the model components. Therefore this paper proposes a microeconomic framework, termed the HOT model (Home, Out-of-home, Travel) grounded in the goods-leisure paradigm, but extended to incorporate emerging activity-travel behaviour patterns and their energy consumption implications. We discuss how the model can be operationalised and embedded within agent-based frameworks with a case study using time use and energy consumption data from the UK.
Psyllou E, Pawlak J, 2019, Congestion, safety, economic, and environmental challenges of vehicle automation in transport systems: Comment on "Driverless cars will make passenger rail obsolete," by Yair Wiseman [Opinion], IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, Vol: 38, Pages: 28-35, ISSN: 0278-0097
Driverless cars are expected to have the advantage of lifting requirements for driver's license ownership and fitness to drive. As such they may offer improved accessibility and mobility for those currently unable to drive, e.g., the elderly and disabled. Despite the postulated benefits, the role of driverless cars in future transport systems remains debatable, in terms of their potential to replace other transport modes or have a novel, unique, and complementary functionality.
Abeille A, Pawlak J, Polak J, 2018, The genome of an occupation: A task-based approach to modelling travel behaviour and work in mobile settings, 15th International Conference on Travel Behavior Research (IATBR)
Pawlak J, Abeille A, Polak J, et al., 2018, 300 Mbps+ connectivity on train: pre- and post- assessment of travel time use, productivity and ridership implications from a trial implementation in Scotland’, 15th International Conference on Travel Behavior Research (IATBR)
Zhao Y, Pawlak J, Polak J, 2018, Enrichment of transport big data: exploring performance of the inverse discrete choice modelling approach using Monte Carlo simulation, Enrichment of transport big data: exploring performance of the inverse discrete choice modelling approach using Monte Carlo simulation’
Pawlak J, Polak J, 2018, Actions speak louder than words: Modelling the relationship between rail passenger satisfaction and productivity and the intended and actual Internet use while travelling, Modelling
Pawlak J, Polak J, Sivakumar A, 2017, A framework for joint modelling of activity choice, duration, and productivity while travelling, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological: an international journal, Vol: 106, Pages: 153-172, ISSN: 0191-2615
Recent developments in mobile information and communication technologies (ICT), vehicle automation, and the associated debates on the implications for the operation of transport systems and for the appraisal of investment has heightened the importance of understanding how people spend travel time and how productive they are while travelling. To date, however, no approach has been proposed that incorporates the joint modelling of in-travel activity type, activity duration and productivity behaviour.To address this critical gap, we draw on a recently developed PPS framework (Pawlak et al., 2015) to develop a new joint model of activity type choice, duration and productivity. In our framework, we use copulas to provide a flexible link between a discrete choice model of activity type choice, a hazard-based model for activity duration, and a log-linear model of productivity. Our model is readily amenable to estimation, which we demonstrate using data from the 2008 UK Study of Productive Use of Rail Travel-time. We hence show how journey-, respondent-, attitude-, and ICT-related factors are related to expected in-travel time allocation to work and non-work activities, and the associated productivity.To the best of our knowledge, this is the first framework that both captures the effects of different factors on activity choice, duration and productivity, and models links between these aspects of behaviour. Furthermore, the convenient interpretation of the parameters in the form of semi-elasticities enables the comparison of effects associated with the presence of on-board facilities (e.g., workspace, connectivity) or equipment use, facilitating use of the model outputs in applied contexts.
Abeille A, Pawlak J, Polak J, 2017, A framework for modelling the role of tasks associated with occupations in determining the propensity to and productivity of work in mobile settings, 50th Universities’ Transport Study Group Conference
Zhao Y, Pawlak J, Polak J, et al., 2017, Inverse Discrete Choice Modelling (IDCM): Theoretical and Practical Considerations for Imputing Respondent Attributes from the Patterns of Observed Choices, Transportation Planning and Technology, Vol: 41, Pages: 58-79, ISSN: 0308-1060
The growing availability of geotagged big data has stimulated substantial discussion regarding their usability in detailed travel behaviour analysis. Whilst providing a large amount of spatio-temporal information about travel behaviour, these data typically lack semantic content characterising travellers and choice alternatives. The inverse discrete choice modelling (IDCM) approach presented in this paper proposes that discrete choice models (DCMs) can be statistically inverted and used to attach additional variables from observations of travel choices. Suitability of the approach for inferring socioeconomic attributes of travellers is explored using mode choice decisions observed in London Travel Demand Survey. Performance of the IDCM is investigated with respect to the type of variable, the explanatory power of the imputed variable, and the type of estimator used. This method is a significant contribution towards establishing the extent to which DCMs can be credibly applied for semantic enrichment of passively collected big data sets while preserving privacy.
Mikolajczak P, Pawlak J, 2017, Factors affecting outcomes of EU-supported investments in innovation among SMEs in the Greater Poland (Wielkopolska) region, Poland, Journal of Research in Marketing and Entrepreneurship, Vol: 19, Pages: 140-160, ISSN: 1471-5201
PurposeThe European Union offers support mechanisms to help small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) to innovate and grow. Given the substantial contribution of SMEs to national economies, the present paper explores what factors tend to be associated with the success of EU-supported innovation by SMEs in Poland during its early post-accession period.Design/methodology/approachA conceptual model relating the type of innovation, investment purpose, funding type and financial readiness, location and collaboration possibilities, company size and sector of operation to changes in the capital base, employment, unit price and revenue is proposed. This model is operationalised and estimated as a structural equations model and estimated using a sample of 110 SMEs surveyed in 2008 in the Greater Poland (Wielkopolska) region in Poland.FindingsTwo approaches to the successful use of innovation support have been observed among the studied companies. The first approach implements market innovations to establish a presence in foreign markets and to move the product or service up the value chain. The second approach uses the funding to de-risk workforce expansion and increase production capacity.Originality/valueThe paper provides the first systematic disaggregate level analysis of an early post-accession context where impacts of EU support for SME innovation are decomposed into effects of specific investment conditions and innovation type on changes in capital base, employment, unit price and ultimately revenue. The insights provided here are valuable for managers developing business and innovation strategies on the one hand, but also for policymakers responsible for creating an entrepreneurship friendly environment in emerging economies.
Zhao Y, Pawlak J, Polak J, 2017, Privacy-preserving socioeconomic attribute enrichment for mapping of passively-derived OD matrices, Royal Geographical Society with Institute of British Geographers Annual International Conference
Bris M, Pawlak J, Polak J, 2017, How is ICT use linked to household transport expenditure? A cross-national macro analysis of the influence of home broadband access, Journal of Transport Geography, Vol: 60, Pages: 231-242, ISSN: 0966-6923
Understanding of the interactions between Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and physical mobility is a major area of research with practical applications in a number of fields. Very little, however, is known regarding how these relationships vary on a cross-national basis, including across countries at different stages in development. To address this gap, this paper presents an analysis of household transport expenditure as a function of the available variables, with a particular focus on the ICT. This analysis is based on a cross-sectional dataset from 2010 comprising information on 33 countries including average household transport expenditure, ICT represented by the percentage of households with Internet access at home, and a number of contextual macroeconomic and infrastructural variables.Using a log-log framework we find that, in our sample of countries, household transport expenditure is negatively associated with Internet penetration with an elasticity of − 0.394. We verify this to be robust to endogeneity using presence of restrictions on foreign ownership in the Internet market as an instrumental variable. We also control for potential differences in data quality across countries using the Corruption Perceptions Index. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to quantify this relationship at a cross-national level while also controlling for endogeneity and data quality issues. Among the control variables, we observe the estimated effects to be intuitive, and consistent with existing research and microeconomic understandings of the behaviour of individuals and households.
Pawlak J, 2016, Book review: ICT for Transport: Opportunities and Threats Edited by Nikolas Thomopoulos, Moshe Givoni, and Piet Rietveld, 2015. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited. £95.00 (hardback). ISBN 978 1 78347 128 7, Journal of Transport Geography, Vol: 55, Pages: 191-192, ISSN: 0966-6923
Pawlak J, Circella G, Polak J, et al., 2016, Is there anything exceptional about ICT use while travelling? A time allocation framework for and empirical insights into multitasking patterns and well-being implications from the Canadian General Social Survey, 95th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board, Publisher: Transportation Research Board
Pawlak J, Le Vine S, Polak J, et al., 2015, ICT and Physical Mobility – State of Knowledge and Future Outlook, ICT and Physical Mobility – State of Knowledge and Future Outlook, Munich, Publisher: Institute for Mobility Research ifmo: A Research Facility of the BMW Group
Pawlak J, Polak J, Sivakumar A, et al., 2015, Investigating Diffusion of Relationships between ICT and Travel Behaviour by Pooling Independent Cross-sectional Data across Time, 94th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board
Pawlak J, Polak J, Sivakumar A, 2015, Investigating Conditions for Robust Fusion of ICT and Travel Behaviour Datasets, International Association for Travel Behaviour Research (IATBR) Conference
Pawlak J, Zolfaghari A, Polak J, 2015, Imputing Socioeconomic Attributes for Movement Data by Analysing Patterns of Visited Places and Google Places Database: Bridging between Big Data and Behavioural Analysis, 4th International Choice Modelling Conference
Pawlak J, Polak JW, Sivakumar A, 2014, Towards a microeconomic framework for modelling the joint choice of activity–travel behaviour and ICT use, Transportation Research Part A - Policy and Practice, Vol: 76, Pages: 92-112, ISSN: 0965-8564
The rapid development of information and communication technologies (ICT) has been argued to affect time use patterns in a variety of ways, with consequent impacts on travel behaviour. While there exists a significant body of empirical studies documenting these effects, theoretical developments have lagged this empirical work and in particular, microeconomic time allocation models have not to date been fully extended to accommodate the implications of an increasingly digitised society. To address this gap, we present a modelling framework, grounded in time allocation theories and the goods–leisure framework, for joint modelling of the choice of mode of activity (physical versus tele-activity), travel mode and route, and ICT bundle. By providing the expression for a conditional indirect utility function, we use hypothetical scenarios to demonstrate how our framework can conceptualise various activity–travel decision situations. In our scenarios we assume a variety of situations such as the implications of severe weather, the introduction of autonomous vehicles, and the interaction between multiple decision makers. Moreover, our approach lays the microeconomic foundations for deriving subjective values of ICT qualities such as broadband speed or connection reliability. Finally, we also demonstrate the means by which our framework could be linked to various data collection protocols (stated preference exercises, diaries of social interactions, laboratory experiments) and modelling approaches (discrete choice modelling, hazard-based duration models).
Pawlak J, Polak JW, Sivakumar A, 2014, Microsimulation-Based Estimation of Value of Employer's Business Traveler's Value of Time: Comparison with Current Estimation Practices and Implications for Investment Appraisal, 93rd Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board
Pawlak J, Sivakumar A, Polak JW, 2014, Digital Behaviour and Physical Mobility: A Cross-National Analysis, Travel Behaviour Research: Current Foundations, Future Prospects, Editors: Roorda, Miller, Toronto, Publisher: International Association for Travel Behaviour Research, ISBN: 9781304715173
Pawlak J, Polak JW, Sivakumar A, 2013, Making Productive Use of the Wasted: A Behavioural Model of Activity Choice for Business Travel Time and Implications of ICT Use for In-travel Productivity, 3rd International Choice Modelling Conference
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