Imperial College London

Dr Jack Olney

Business School

Executive Director - CHEPI



+44 (0)20 7594 6833jack.olney




Business School BuildingSouth Kensington Campus





Publication Type

9 results found

Graff H, Webber L, Huerta C, Olney J, Sassi Fet al., 2022, The impact of ill-health on social mobility: a qualitative study, SSM - Qualitative Research in Health, Vol: 2, Pages: 100101-100101, ISSN: 2667-3215

Journal article

Segal A, Olney J, Case K, Sassi Fet al., 2022, The benefits and challenges of taxing sugar in a small island state: an interrupted time series analysis, International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1479-5868

Background:Beverage and food taxes have become a popular ‘best buy’ public health intervention in the global battle to tackle noncommunicable diseases. Though many countries have introduced taxes, mainly targeting products containing sugar, there is great heterogeneity in tax design. For taxes levied as import tariffs, there is limited evidence of effectiveness in changing the price and sale of taxed products, while the evidence base is stronger for excise taxes levied as a fixed amount per quantity of product. This paper examines the effect of the Bermuda Discretionary Foods Tax, which was based on import tariff changes, on retail prices and sales of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), and on selected fruits and vegetables that benefited from a tariff reduction.Methods:We used weekly electronic point-of-sale data from a major food retailer in Bermuda. We assessed historical weekly sales and price data using an interrupted time series design on 2,703 unique products between the dates of January 2018 through January 2020, covering 103 weeks.Results:By January 2020, the average price per ounce of SSBs increased by 26.0%, while the price of untaxed beverages (including waters and non-added sugar drinks) remained constant. The increasing price of SSBs was the sole observable structural driver of SSB market share, responsible for a decrease in the market share by nearly eight percentage points by the end of the study period. The subsidy on fruits and vegetables was ineffective in changing prices and sales, due to the relatively small 5% import tax decrease.Conclusions:The tax was largely passed through to consumers. However, several factors mitigated the impact of the tax on the prices paid for SSBs by consumers, including the specific design of the tax, price promotions and consumer responses. The experience of Bermuda provides important lessons for the planning of similar taxes in the future.

Journal article

Aurino E, Olney J, Miraldo M, Watson Ket al., 2020, Chronic Syndemic meets Viral pandemic, Publisher: BMJ Opinion

Working paper

Chambers T, Olney J, Sassi F, 2019, Use of academic funding to engage the food industry in innovations to improve public health: a descriptive analysis of applications for academic-industry partnerships, National Conference on Public Health Science Dedicated to New Research in UK Public Health, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, Pages: 9-9, ISSN: 0140-6736

Conference paper

Bloom C, douglas I, Olney J, d'Ancona G, smeeth L, Quint Jet al., 2019, Cost saving of switching to equivalent inhalers and its effect on health outcomes, Thorax, Vol: 74, Pages: 1078-1086, ISSN: 1468-3296

BackgroundSwitching inhalers to cheaper equivalent products is often advocated as a necessary cost saving measure, yet the impact on patient’s health and healthcare utilisation has not been measured.MethodsWe identified asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients from UK primary care electronic healthcare records between 2000 and 2016. A self-controlled case series was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR); comparing outcome rates during the risk period, 3-months after the exposure (financially-motivated switch), and control periods (pre-switch, and post-risk period). Four outcomes were assessed: disease exacerbation, GP consultation, non-specific respiratory events and adverse-medication events. Medication possession ratio (MPR) was calculated to assess adherence. 2017 NHS indicative prices were used to estimate cost differences per equivalent dose.ResultsWe identified a cohort of 569,901 asthma and 171,231 COPD regular inhaler users, 2% and 6% had been switched, respectively. Inhaler switches between a brand-to-generic inhaler, and all other switches (brand-to-brand, generic-to-generic, generic-to-brand), were associated with reduced exacerbations (brand-to-generic: IRR=0.75, 95% CI 0.64-0.88; all other: IRR=0.79, 95% CI 0.71-0.88). Gender, age, therapeutic class, inhaler device, and inhaler-technique checks did not significantly modify this association (p<0.05). The rate of consultations, respiratory-events and adverse-medication events did not change significantly (consultations: IRR=1.00, 95% CI 0.99-1.01; respiratory-events: IRR=0.96, 95% CI 0.95-0.97; adverse-medication-events: IRR=1.05, 95% CI 0.96-1.15). Adherence significantly increased post-switch (median MPR: pre-switch=54%, post-switch=62%; p<0.001). Switching patients, in the cohort of regular inhaler users, to the cheapest equivalent inhaler, could have saved around £6 million annually. ConclusionSwitching to an equivalent inhaler in patients with asthma

Journal article

Olney JJ, Eaton J, Braitstein P, Hogan J, Hallett Tet al., 2018, Optimal timing of HIV home-based counselling and testing rounds in Western Kenya, Journal of the International AIDS Society, Vol: 21, ISSN: 1758-2652

Introduction:Weaknesses in care programmes providing anti‐retroviral therapy (ART) persist and are often instigated by late HIV diagnosis and poor linkage to care. We investigated the potential for a home‐based counselling and testing (HBCT) campaign to be improved through the optimal timing and enhancement of testing rounds to generate greater health outcomes at minimum cost.Methods:Using a mathematical model of HIV care calibrated to longitudinal data from The Academic Model Providing Access To Healthcare (AMPATH) in Kenya, we simulated HBCT campaigns between 2016 and 2036, assessing the impact and total cost of care for each, for a further 20 years.Results:We find that simulating five equally spaced rounds averts 1.53 million disability‐adjusted life‐years (DALYs) at a cost of $1617 million. By altering the timing of HBCT rounds, a four‐round campaign can produce greater impact for lower cost. With “front‐loaded” rounds, the cost per DALY averted is reduced by 12% as fewer rounds are required ($937 vs. $1060). Furthermore, improvements to HBCT coverage and linkage to care avert over two million DALYs at a cost per DALY averted of $621 (41% less than the reference scenario).Conclusions:Countries implementing HBCT can reduce costs by optimally timing rounds and generate greater health outcomes through improving linkage, coverage, and retention. Tailoring HBCT campaigns to individual settings can enhance patient outcomes for minimal cost.

Journal article

Smit M, Olney J, Ford NP, Vitoria M, Gregson S, Vassall A, Hallett TBet al., 2018, The growing burden of non-communicable disease among persons living with HIV in Zimbabwe, AIDS, Vol: 32, Pages: 773-782, ISSN: 0269-9370

Objectives:We aim to characterize the future noncommunicable disease (NCD)burden in Zimbabwe to identify future health system priorities.Methods:We developed an individual-based multidisease model for Zimbabwe,simulating births, deaths, infection with HIV and progression and key NCD [asthma,chronic kidney disease (CKD), depression, diabetes, hypertension, stroke, breast,cervical, colorectal, liver, oesophageal, prostate and all other cancers]. The modelwas parameterized using national and regional surveillance and epidemiological data.Demographic and NCD burden projections were generated for 2015 to 2035.Results:The model predicts that mean age of PLHIV will increase from 31 to 45 yearsbetween 2015 and 2035 (compared with 20 –26 in uninfected individuals). Conse-quently, the proportion suffering from at least one key NCD in 2035 will increase by26% in PLHIV and 6% in uninfected. Adult PLHIV will be twice as likely to suffer from atleast one key NCD in 2035 compared with uninfected adults; with 15.2% of all keyNCDs diagnosed in adult PLHIV, whereas contributing only 5% of the Zimbabweanpopulation. The most prevalent NCDs will be hypertension, CKD, depression andcancers. This demographic and disease shift in PLHIV is mainly because of reductions inincidence and the success of ART scale-up leading to longer life expectancy, and to alesser extent, the cumulative exposure to HIV and ART.Conclusion:NCD services will need to be expanded in Zimbabwe. They will need tobe integrated into HIV care programmes, although the growing NCD burden amongstuninfected individuals presenting opportunities for additional services developedwithin HIV care to benefit HIV-negative persons.

Journal article

Olney JJ, Braitstein P, Eaton JW, Sang E, Nyambura M, Kimaiyo S, McRobie E, Hogan JW, Hallett TBet al., 2016, Evaluating strategies to improve HIV care outcomes in Kenya: a modelling study, Lancet HIV, Vol: 3, Pages: e592-e600, ISSN: 2405-4704

BackgroundWith expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, HIV mortality has decreased, yet life-years are still lost to AIDS. Strengthening of treatment programmes is a priority. We examined the state of an HIV care programme in Kenya and assessed interventions to improve the impact of ART programmes on population health.MethodsWe created an individual-based mathematical model to describe the HIV epidemic and the experiences of care among adults infected with HIV in Kenya. We calibrated the model to a longitudinal dataset from the Academic Model Providing Access To Healthcare (known as AMPATH) programme describing the routes into care, losses from care, and clinical outcomes. We simulated the cost and effect of interventions at different stages of HIV care, including improvements to diagnosis, linkage to care, retention and adherence of ART, immediate ART eligibility, and a universal test-and-treat strategy.FindingsWe estimate that, of people dying from AIDS between 2010 and 2030, most will have initiated treatment (61%), but many will never have been diagnosed (25%) or will have been diagnosed but never started ART (14%). Many interventions targeting a single stage of the health-care cascade were likely to be cost-effective, but any individual intervention averted only a small percentage of deaths because the effect is attenuated by other weaknesses in care. However, a combination of five interventions (including improved linkage, point-of-care CD4 testing, voluntary counselling and testing with point-of-care CD4, and outreach to improve retention in pre-ART care and on-ART) would have a much larger impact, averting 1·10 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and 25% of expected new infections and would probably be cost-effective (US$571 per DALY averted). This strategy would improve health more efficiently than a universal test-and-treat intervention if there were no accompanying improvements to care ($1760 per DALY avert

Journal article

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