My research interests involve developing new mathematical models, statistical methods, and surveillance tools to characterise HIV epidemic trends, transmission dynamics, and the demographic impacts of HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa.
I co-chair the secretariat of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections, a global scientific advisory group who provide scientific and technical guidance to UNAIDS and partner organisations on the data and methods used to develop global HIV estimates.
Our HIV Inference Research Group collaborates with the RESIDE-IC Research Software Engineering group in the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis. We develop mathematical models and software tools supported by UNAIDS for national HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa to estimate HIV incidence trends, develop district-level HIV estimates, and track progress towards HIV testing and treatment targets.
I have a longstanding interest the collection analysis of longitudinal population cohort data. I work extensively with the Manicaland Centre for Public Health Research in eastern Zimbabwe and the ALPHA Network of general population HIV cohort studies.
et al., 2021, Naomi: a new modelling tool for estimating HIV epidemic indicators at the district level in Sub-Saharan Africa, Journal of the International AIDS Society, Vol:24, ISSN:1758-2652, Pages:1-13
et al., 2021, Age patterns of HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa: a collaborative analysis of observational general population cohort studies, The Lancet Hiv, Vol:8, ISSN:2405-4704, Pages:e429-e439
et al., 2021, Trends in knowledge of HIV status and efficiency of HIV testing services in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-20: a modelling study using survey and HIV testing programme data, The Lancet Hiv, Vol:8, ISSN:2405-4704, Pages:284-293
et al., 2019, National HIV testing and diagnosis coverage in sub-Saharan Africa: a new modeling tool for estimating the "first 90" from program and survey data, AIDS, Vol:33, ISSN:0269-9370, Pages:S255-S269
et al., 2019, The estimation and projection package age-sex model and the r-hybrid model: new tools for estimating HIV incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa., AIDS, Vol:33, ISSN:0269-9370, Pages:S235-S244
Marston M, Zaba B, Eaton JW, 2017, The relationship between HIV and fertility in the era of antiretroviral therapy in sub Saharan Africa – Evidence from 49 Demographic & Health Surveys, Tropical Medicine & International Health, Vol:22, ISSN:1360-2276, Pages:1542-1550
et al., 2014, Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates, AIDS, Vol:28, ISSN:0269-9370, Pages:S507-S514
et al., 2014, Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models, The Lancet Global Health, Vol:2, ISSN:2214-109X, Pages:E23-E34
et al., 2013, Effects of unconditional and conditional cash transfers on child health and development in Zimbabwe: a cluster-randomised trial, The Lancet, Vol:381, ISSN:0140-6736, Pages:1283-1292
et al., 2012, HIV Treatment as Prevention: Systematic Comparison of Mathematical Models of the Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Incidence in South Africa, PLOS Medicine, Vol:9, ISSN:1549-1277