Imperial College London
Alternate

Jeff Imai-Eaton

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Senior Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

jeffrey.eaton

 
 
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Location

 

UG7Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Flaxman:2020:10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7,
author = {Flaxman, S and Mishra, S and Gandy, A and Unwin, HJT and Mellan, TA and Coupland, H and Whittaker, C and Zhu, H and Berah, T and Eaton, JW and Monod, M and Perez, Guzman PN and Schmit, N and Cilloni, L and Ainslie, K and Baguelin, M and Boonyasiri, A and Boyd, O and Cattarino, L and Cucunuba, Perez Z and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Dighe, A and Djaafara, A and Dorigatti, I and van, Elsland S and Fitzjohn, R and Gaythorpe, K and Geidelberg, L and Grassly, N and Green, W and Hallett, T and Hamlet, A and Hinsley, W and Jeffrey, B and Knock, E and Laydon, D and Nedjati, Gilani G and Nouvellet, P and Parag, K and Siveroni, I and Thompson, H and Verity, R and Volz, E and Walters, C and Wang, H and Watson, O and Winskill, P and Xi, X and Walker, P and Ghani, AC and Donnelly, CA and Riley, SM and Vollmer, MAC and Ferguson, NM and Okell, LC and Bhatt, S},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7},
journal = {Nature},
pages = {257--261},
title = {Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7},
volume = {584},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus1 (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions such as closure of schools and national lockdowns. We study the impact of major interventions across 11 European countries for the period from the start of COVID-19 until the 4th of May 2020 when lockdowns started to be lifted. Our model calculates backwards from observed deaths to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. We use partial pooling of information between countries with both individual and shared effects on the reproduction number. Pooling allows more information to be used, helps overcome data idiosyncrasies, and enables more timely estimates. Our model relies on fixed estimates of some epidemiological parameters such as the infection fatality rate, does not include importation or subnational variation and assumes that changes in the reproduction number are an immediate response to interventions rather than gradual changes in behavior. Amidst the ongoing pandemic, we rely on death data that is incomplete, with systematic biases in reporting, and subject to future consolidation. We estimate that, for all the countries we consider, current interventions have been sufficient to drive the reproduction number Rt below 1 (probability Rt< 1.0 is 99.9%) and achieve epidemic control. We estimate that, across all 11 countries, between 12 and 15 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 4th May, representing between 3.2% and 4.0% of the population. Our results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions and lockdown in particular have had a large effect on reducing transmission. Continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.
AU  - Flaxman,S
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Gandy,A
AU  - Unwin,HJT
AU  - Mellan,TA
AU  - Coupland,H
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Zhu,H
AU  - Berah,T
AU  - Eaton,JW
AU  - Monod,M
AU  - Perez,Guzman PN
AU  - Schmit,N
AU  - Cilloni,L
AU  - Ainslie,K
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Boyd,O
AU  - Cattarino,L
AU  - Cucunuba,Perez Z
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Dighe,A
AU  - Djaafara,A
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Fitzjohn,R
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Geidelberg,L
AU  - Grassly,N
AU  - Green,W
AU  - Hallett,T
AU  - Hamlet,A
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Jeffrey,B
AU  - Knock,E
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Nedjati,Gilani G
AU  - Nouvellet,P
AU  - Parag,K
AU  - Siveroni,I
AU  - Thompson,H
AU  - Verity,R
AU  - Volz,E
AU  - Walters,C
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Watson,O
AU  - Winskill,P
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Walker,P
AU  - Ghani,AC
AU  - Donnelly,CA
AU  - Riley,SM
AU  - Vollmer,MAC
AU  - Ferguson,NM
AU  - Okell,LC
AU  - Bhatt,S
DO  - 10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7
EP  - 261
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 0028-0836
SP  - 257
TI  - Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
T2  - Nature
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7
UR  - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-30-COVID19-Report-13.pdf
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/79729
VL  - 584
ER  -
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