Imperial College London
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ProfessorKatharinaHauck

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor in Health Economics
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 9197k.hauck Website

 
 
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Assistant

 

Ms Julie Middleton +44 (0)20 7594 3284

 
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Location

 

Office 502School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Ohrnberger:2021:eurpub/ckab138,
author = {Ohrnberger, J and Segal, A and Forchini, G and Miraldo, M and Skarp, J and Nedjati-Gilani, G and Laydon, D and Ghani, A and Ferguson, N and Hauck, K},
doi = {eurpub/ckab138},
journal = {European Journal of Public Health},
pages = {1009--1015},
title = {The impact of a COVID-19 lockdown on work productivity under good and poor compliance},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckab138},
volume = {31},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments across the globe have imposed strict social distancing measures. Public compliance to such measures is essential for their success yet the economic consequences of compliance are unknown. This is the first study to analyse the effects of good compliance compared to poor compliance to a COVID-19 suppression strategy (i.e. lockdown) on work productivity. MethodsWe estimate the differences in work productivity comparing a scenario of good compliance with one of poor compliance to the UK government COVID-19 suppression strategy. We use projections of the impact of the UK suppression strategy on mortality and morbidity from an individual-based epidemiological model combined with an economic model representative of the labour force in Wales and England. ResultsWe find that productivity effects of good compliance significantly exceed those of poor compliance and increase with the duration of the lockdown. After three months of the lockdown, work productivity in good compliance is £398.58 million higher compared with that of poor compliance. 75% of the differences is explained by productivity effects due to morbidity and non-health reasons and 25% attributed to avoided losses due to pre-mature mortality.ConclusionGood compliance to social distancing measures exceeds positive economic effects, in addition to health benefits. This is an important finding for current economic and health policy. It highlights the importance to set clear guidelines for the public, to build trust and support for the rules and if necessary, to enforce good compliance to social distancing measures.
AU  - Ohrnberger,J
AU  - Segal,A
AU  - Forchini,G
AU  - Miraldo,M
AU  - Skarp,J
AU  - Nedjati-Gilani,G
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Hauck,K
DO  - eurpub/ckab138
EP  - 1015
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 1101-1262
SP  - 1009
TI  - The impact of a COVID-19 lockdown on work productivity under good and poor compliance
T2  - European Journal of Public Health
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckab138
UR  - https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/31/5/1009/6343457
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/90844
VL  - 31
ER  -
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