Imperial College London

Emeritus ProfessorKarimAbadir

Business School

Emeritus Professor in Financial Econometrics







3.0353 Prince's GateSouth Kensington Campus





Karim Abadir is Emeritus Professor of Financial Econometrics at the Business School (Chair of Financial Econometrics 2005-2017). He was in charge of recruiting from March 2006 and Group Head from July 2007 until Sept 2008. He holds a DPhil from Oxford University. His MA (Economics) and BA (Major in Economics, Minor in Business) are from the American University in Cairo. He went to school at the Collège de la Sainte Famille (Jésuites) in Cairo. He has worked as:

1988-92: Lecturer in Economics, Lincoln College, Oxford University.
1992-93: Research Fellow in Economics, American University in Cairo.
1993: Professional diver, Sinai, Egypt.
1993-94: Senior Lecturer in Statistics and Econometrics, University of Exeter.
1994-96: Reader in Econometrics, University of Exeter.
1996-2005: Professor of Econometrics and Statistics (Chair equally split between the Department of Mathematics and the Department of Economics & Related Studies) and Head of the Statistics Group, University of York.

He serves on various editorial boards and was a founding co-editor of the Econometrics Journal. He is credited with having solved in his DPhil a major long-standing problem in Mathematical Statistics and Time Series that was open since the 1950's (the explicit formulae for the distributions of unit-root statistics). New economic models and dynamics, obtained in his publications, led him to predict:
- the timing of the 2008 recession a year in advance, and the different timings of the recoveries in various Western countries (see * below);
- the stagflation of 2021-2022, its seeds in June 2019 on Twitter then in an article invited in summer 2021 in International Banker;
- impending recession in March 2022 on Twitter then, with Prof Gabriel Talmain, summary of forecasts and another warning about central banks' overshooting, both in International Banker.

*Earlier references:
Recession? What Recession?!
(Done on the 7th of March 2008 for the alumni magazine.)
- A predictable recession, and what to do about it.
Is the economic crisis over (and out)? 
(Used GIPSI instead of PIIGS, since the start of the crisis, and the sequencing turned out to be more accurate.)
- LSE blog: Triple-dip, coming to a town near you...
Deficit cuts should be postponed (on Swiss financial TV Dukascopy) & subsequent Expert Commentary
2015 Summary on CNBC's Power Lunch and SABC news. See also this striking graph (posted Spring/Summer 2015) that explains why you shouldn't blame China for the market slides of early 2016 which were predicted in 2015 & have to do with fundamentals.

Founding member of the liberal party Al Masreyeen Al Ahrrar (translates as Free/Liberal Egyptians), which has been granted Observer (2012) then Full (2014) Membership of Liberal International. Member of its first Political Office (2011-2013) and first Supreme Council (2013-2017). Drafted its economic programme in April 2011 (prior to its launch) and Chair of its Economics Committee September 2011 to March 2013 (Summary of programme in Ar & Eng). Chair of the Data Analysis and Information Committee 2011-2012. See documented (but unpunished) fraud of elections 2011-12.
2013 Economic summary on CNBC's Squawk Box.

[Further details are in various editions of Who's Who in the World, Dictionary of International Biography, Cambridge Blue Book. Doctors may be interested in the work of his grandfather.]

Selected Publications

Journal Articles

Abadir K, Lubrano M, 2024, Explicit solution for the asymptotically-optimal bandwidth in cross-validation, Biometrika, ISSN:0006-3444

Abadir KM, Talmain G, 2023, Beyond Co-integration: New Tools for Inference on Co-movements, Journal of Financial Econometrics, ISSN:1479-8409

Abadir KM, 2023, Explicit minimal representation of variance matrices, and its implication for dynamic volatility models, Econometrics Journal, Vol:26, ISSN:1368-4221, Pages:88-104

Abadir KM, Distaso W, Žikeš F, 2014, Design-free estimation of variance matrices, Journal of Econometrics, Vol:181, ISSN:1872-6895, Pages:165-180

Abadir KM, Caggiano G, Talmain G, 2013, Nelson-Plosser revisited: the ACF approach, Journal of Econometrics, Vol:175, Pages:22-34

Abadir KM, 2005, THE MEAN-MEDIAN-MODE INEQUALITY: COUNTEREXAMPLES, Econometric Theory, Vol:21, Pages:477-482

Abadir, K.M., Rockinger, M., 2003, Density functionals, with an option-pricing application, Econometric Theory, Vol:19, ISSN:0266-4666, Pages:778-811

Abadir, K., Talmain, G., 2002, Aggregation, persistence and volatility in a macro model, Review of Economic Studies, Vol:69, ISSN:0034-6527, Pages:749-779

Abadir, K.M., Hadri, K., Tzavalis, E., 1999, The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases, Econometrica, Vol:67, Pages:163-181

Abadir, K.M., 1993, Expansions for some confluent hypergeometric functions, Journal of Physics A, Vol:26, Pages:4059-4066

Abadir, K.M., 1993, The limiting distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient under a unit root, Annals of Statistics, Vol:21, Pages:1058-1070


Abadir KM, Atanasova C, 2022, Where (and by how much) does a theory break down? With an application to the expectation hypothesis., Advances in Econometrics, Volume 43B: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Panel Modeling, Micro Applications, and Econometric Methodology:, Editor(s): Chudik, Hsiao, Timmermann, Emerald, Pages:255-267, ISBN:978-1-80262-066-5

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