Imperial College London

DrKostasTsilidis

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Reader in Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention
 
 
 
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+44 (0)20 7594 2623k.tsilidis

 
 
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Location

 

School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
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364 results found

Amadou A, Freisling H, Jenab M, Tsilidis KK, Trichopoulou A, Boffetta P, Van Guelpen B, Mokoroa O, Wilsgaard T, Kee F, Schoettker B, Ordonez-Mena JM, Mannisto S, Soderberg S, Vermeulen RCH, Quiros JR, Liao LM, Sinha R, Kuulasmaa K, Brenner H, Romieu Iet al., 2021, Prevalent diabetes and risk of total, colorectal, prostate and breast cancers in an ageing population: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium, BRITISH JOURNAL OF CANCER, Vol: 124, Pages: 1882-1890, ISSN: 0007-0920

Journal article

Christakoudi S, Evangelou E, Riboli E, Tsilidis Ket al., 2021, GWAS of allometric body-shape indices in UK Biobank identifies loci suggesting associations with morphogenesis, organogenesis, adrenal cell renewal and cancer, Scientific Reports, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-18, ISSN: 2045-2322

Genetic studies have examined body-shape measures adjusted for body mass index (BMI), while allometric indices are additionally adjusted for height. We performed the first genome-wide association study of A Body Shape Index (ABSI), Hip Index (HI) and the new Waist-to-Hip Index and compared these with traditional indices, using data from the UK Biobank Resource for 219,872 women and 186,825 men with white British ancestry and Bayesian linear mixed-models (BOLT-LMM). One to two thirds of the loci identified for allometric body-shape indices were novel. Most prominent was rs72959041 variant in RSPO3 gene, expressed in visceral adipose tissue and regulating adrenal cell renewal. Highly ranked were genes related to morphogenesis and organogenesis, previously additionally linked to cancer development and progression. Genetic associations were fewer in men compared to women. Prominent region-specific associations showed variants in loci VEGFA and HMGA1 for ABSI and KLF14 for HI in women, and C5orf67 and HOXC4/5 for ABSI and RSPO3, VEGFA and SLC30A10 for HI in men. Although more variants were associated with waist and hip circumference adjusted for BMI compared to ABSI and HI, associations with height had previously been reported for many of the additional variants, illustrating the importance of adjusting correctly for height.

Journal article

Dimou N, Yarmolinsky J, Bouras E, Tsilidis KK, Martin RM, Lewis SJ, Gram IT, Bakker MF, Brenner H, Figueiredo JC, Fortner RT, Gruber SB, Van Guelpen B, Hsu L, Kaaks R, Kweon S-S, Lin Y, Lindor NM, Newcomb PA, Sanchez-Perez M-J, Severi G, Tindle HA, Tumino R, Weiderpass E, Gunter MJ, Murphy Net al., 2021, Causal effects of lifetime smoking on breast and colorectal cancer risk: Mendelian randomization study, Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention, Vol: 30, Pages: 953-964, ISSN: 1055-9965

BACKGROUND: Observational evidence has shown that smoking is a risk factor for breast and colorectal cancer. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine causal associations between smoking and risks of breast and colorectal cancer. METHODS: Genome-wide association study summary data were used to identify genetic variants associated with lifetime amount of smoking (n=126 variants) and ever having smoked regularly (n=112 variants). Using two-sample MR, we examined these variants in relation to incident breast (122,977 cases/105,974 controls) and colorectal cancer (52,775 cases/45,940 controls). RESULTS: In inverse-variance weighted models, a genetic predisposition to higher lifetime amount of smoking was positively associated with breast cancer risk [odds ratio [OR] per 1-standard deviation (SD) increment: 1.13 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00-1.26); P: 0.04]; although heterogeneity was observed. Similar associations were found for estrogen receptor-positive and estrogen receptor-negative tumors. Higher lifetime amount of smoking was positively associated with colorectal cancer [OR per 1-SD increment: 1.21 (95% CI: 1.04-1.40); P: 0.01], colon cancer [OR: 1.31 (95% CI: 1.11-1.55); P: <0.01], and rectal cancer [OR: 1.36 (95% CI: 1.07-1.73); P: 0.01]. Ever having smoked regularly was not associated with risks of breast [OR: 1.01 (95% CI: 0.90-1.14); P: 0.85] or colorectal cancer [OR: 0.97 (95% CI: 0.86-1.10); P: 0.68]. CONCLUSIONS: These findings are consistent with prior observational evidence and support a causal role of higher lifetime smoking amount in the development of breast and colorectal cancer. IMPACT: The results from this comprehensive MR analysis indicate that lifetime smoking is a causal risk factor for these common malignancies.

Journal article

Watts EL, Fensom GK, Byrne KS, Perez-Cornago A, Allen NE, Knuppel A, Gunter MJ, Holmes M, Martin RM, Murphy N, Tsilidis KK, Yeap BB, Key TJ, Travis RCet al., 2021, Circulating insulin-like growth factor-I, total and free testosterone concentrations and prostate cancer risk in 200 000 men in UK Biobank, International Journal of Cancer, Vol: 148, Pages: 2274-2288, ISSN: 0020-7136

Insulin‐like growth factor‐I (IGF‐I) and testosterone have been implicated in prostate cancer aetiology. Using data from a large prospective full‐cohort with standardised assays and repeat blood measurements, and genetic data from an international consortium, we investigated the associations of circulating IGF‐I, sex hormone‐binding globulin (SHBG), and total and calculated free testosterone concentrations with prostate cancer incidence and mortality. For prospective analyses, risk was estimated using multivariable‐adjusted Cox regression in 199 698 male UK Biobank participants. Hazard ratios (HRs) were corrected for regression dilution bias using repeat hormone measurements from a subsample. Two‐sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis of IGF‐I and risk used genetic instruments identified from UK Biobank men and genetic outcome data from the PRACTICAL consortium (79 148 cases and 61 106 controls). We used cis‐ and all (cis and trans) SNP MR approaches. A total of 5402 men were diagnosed with and 295 died from prostate cancer (mean follow‐up 6.9 years). Higher circulating IGF‐I was associated with elevated prostate cancer diagnosis (HR per 5 nmol/L increment = 1.09, 95% CI 1.05‐1.12) and mortality (HR per 5 nmol/L increment = 1.15, 1.02‐1.29). MR analyses also supported the role of IGF‐I in prostate cancer diagnosis (cis‐MR odds ratio per 5 nmol/L increment = 1.34, 1.07‐1.68). In observational analyses, higher free testosterone was associated with a higher risk of prostate cancer (HR per 50 pmol/L increment = 1.10, 1.05‐1.15). Higher SHBG was associated with a lower risk (HR per 10 nmol/L increment = 0.95, 0.94‐0.97), neither was associated with prostate cancer mortality. Total testosterone was not associated with prostate cancer. These findings implicate IGF‐I and free testosterone in prostate cancer development and/or progression.

Journal article

Kliemann N, Viallon V, Murphy N, Beeken RJ, Rothwell JA, Rinaldi S, Assi N, van Roekel EH, Schmidt JA, Borch KB, Agnoli C, Rosendahl AH, Sartor H, Huerta JM, Tjonneland A, Halkjaer J, Bueno-de-Mesquita B, Gicquiau A, Achaintre D, Aleksandrova K, Schulze MB, Heath AK, Tsilidis KK, Masala G, Panico S, Kaaks R, Fortner RT, Van Guelpen B, Dossus L, Scalbert A, Keun HC, Travis RC, Jenab M, Johansson M, Ferrari P, Gunter MJet al., 2021, Metabolic signatures of greater body size and their associations with risk of colorectal and endometrial cancers in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, BMC Medicine, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1741-7015

Background:The mechanisms underlying the obesity-cancer relationship are incompletely understood. This study aimed to characterise metabolic signatures of greater body size and to investigate their association with two obesity-related malignancies, endometrial and colorectal cancers, and with weight loss within the context of an intervention study.Methods:Targeted mass spectrometry metabolomics data from 4326 participants enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort and 17 individuals from a single-arm pilot weight loss intervention (Intercept) were used in this analysis. Metabolic signatures of body size were first determined in discovery (N = 3029) and replication (N = 1297) sets among EPIC participants by testing the associations between 129 metabolites and body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) using linear regression models followed by partial least squares analyses. Conditional logistic regression models assessed the associations between the metabolic signatures with endometrial (N = 635 cases and 648 controls) and colorectal (N = 423 cases and 423 controls) cancer risk using nested case-control studies in EPIC. Pearson correlation between changes in the metabolic signatures and weight loss was tested among Intercept participants.Results:After adjustment for multiple comparisons, greater BMI, WC, and WHR were associated with higher levels of valine, isoleucine, glutamate, PC aa C38:3, and PC aa C38:4 and with lower levels of asparagine, glutamine, glycine, serine, lysoPC C17:0, lysoPC C18:1, lysoPC C18:2, PC aa C42:0, PC ae C34:3, PC ae C40:5, and PC ae C42:5. The metabolic signature of BMI (OR1-sd 1.50, 95% CI 1.30–1.74), WC (OR1-sd 1.46, 95% CI 1.27–1.69), and WHR (OR1-sd 1.54, 95% CI 1.33–1.79) were each associated with endometrial cancer risk. Risk of colorectal cancer was positively associated with

Journal article

Christakoudi S, Pagoni P, Ferrari P, Cross AJ, Tzoulaki I, Muller DC, Weiderpass E, Freisling H, Murphy N, Dossus L, Fortner RT, Agudo A, Overvad K, Perez-Cornago A, Key TJ, Brennan P, Johansson M, Tjønneland A, Halkjær J, Boutron-Ruault M-C, Artaud F, Severi G, Kaaks R, Schulze MB, Bergmann MM, Masala G, Grioni S, Simeon V, Tumino R, Sacerdote C, Skeie G, Rylander C, Borch KB, Quirós JR, Rodriguez-Barranco M, Chirlaque M-D, Ardanaz E, Amiano P, Drake I, Stocks T, Häggström C, Harlid S, Ellingjord-Dale M, Riboli E, Tsilidis KKet al., 2021, Weight change in middle adulthood and risk of cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, International Journal of Cancer, Vol: 148, Pages: 1637-1651, ISSN: 0020-7136

Obesity is a risk factor for several major cancers. Associations of weight change in middle adulthood with cancer risk, however, are less clear. We examined the association of change in weight and body mass index (BMI) category during middle adulthood with 42 cancers, using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Of 241,323 participants (31% men), 20% lost and 32% gained weight (>0.4 to 5.0 kg/year) during 6.9 years (average). During 8.0 years of follow-up after the second weight assessment, 20,960 incident cancers were ascertained. Independent of baseline BMI, weight gain (per one kg/year increment) was positively associated with cancer of the corpus uteri (hazard ratio HR=1.14; 95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.23). Compared to stable weight (+/-0.4 kg/year), weight gain (>0.4 to 5.0 kg/year) was positively associated with cancers of the gallbladder and bile ducts (HR=1.41; 1.01-1.96), post-menopausal breast (HR=1.08, 1.00-1.16) and thyroid (HR=1.40; 1.04-1.90). Compared to maintaining normal weight, maintaining overweight or obese BMI (World Health Organization categories) was positively associated with most obesity-related cancers. Compared to maintaining the baseline BMI category, weight gain to a higher BMI category was positively associated with cancers of the post-menopausal breast (HR=1.19; 1.06-1.33), ovary (HR=1.40; 1.04-1.91), corpus uteri (HR=1.42; 1.06-1.91), kidney (HR=1.80; 1.20-2.68) and pancreas in men (HR=1.81; 1.11-2.95). Losing weight to a lower BMI category, however, was inversely associated with cancers of the corpus uteri (HR=0.40; 0.23-0.69) and colon (HR=0.69; 0.52-0.92). Our findings support avoiding weight gain and encouraging weight loss in middle adulthood.

Journal article

Bowden S, Bodinier B, Kalliala I, Zuber V, Vuckovic D, Doulgeraki T, Whitaker M, Wielscher M, Cartwright R, Tsilidis K, Bennett P, Jarvelin M-R, Flanagan J, Chadeau M, Kyrgiou M, FinnGen consortiumet al., 2021, Genetic variation in cervical preinvasive and invasive disease: a genome-wide association study, The Lancet Oncology, Vol: 22, Pages: 548-557, ISSN: 1213-9432

Background: Most uterine cervical high-risk HPV infections (hrHPV) are transient, with only a small 3fraction developing into cervical cancer. Family aggregation studies and heritability estimates suggest 4a significant inherited genetic component. Candidate gene studies and previous genome-wide 5association studies (GWAS) report associations between the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region 6and cervical cancer. 78Methods: Adopting a genome-wide approach, we compared the genetic variation in women with 9invasive cervical cancer (ICC) and cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3, to that in healthy 10controls using the largest reported cohort of unrelated European individuals (N=150,314)to date. We 11sought for replication in a second large independent dataset (N=128,123). We further performed a two-12sample Mendelian Randomisation approach to explore the role of risk factors in the genetic risk of 13cervical cancer.1415Findings: In our analysis (N=4,769 CIN3 and ICC cases; N=145,545 controls), of the (N=9,600,464) 16assayed and imputed SNPs, six independent variants were found associated with CIN3and ICC. These 17included novel loci rs10175462(PAX8; OR=0.87(95%CI=0.84-0.91); P=1.07x10-9) and rs27069 18(CLPTM1L;OR=0.88(95%CI=0.84-0.92); P=2.51x10-9), and previously reported signals at rs9272050 19(HLA-DQA1;OR=1.27(95%CI=1.21-1.32); P=2.51x10-28), rs6938453 (MICA;OR=0.7920(95%CI=0.75-0.83); P=1.97x10-17), rs55986091 (HLA-DQB1;OR=0.66(95%CI=0.60-0.72); 21P=6.42x10-22) and rs9266183 (HLA-B;OR=0.73(95%CI=0.64-0.83); P=1.53x10-6). Mendelian 22randomisation further supported the complementary role of smoking, age at first pregnancy, and number 23of sexual partners in the risk of developing cervical cancer.2425Interpretation: Our results provide substantial new evidence for genetic susceptibility to cervical cancer, 26including PAX8, CLPTM1LandHLA genes, suggesting disruption in apoptotic and immun

Journal article

Jayasekara H, MacInnis RJ, Lujan-Barroso L, Mayen-Chacon A-L, Cross AJ, Wallner B, Palli D, Ricceri F, Pala V, Panico S, Tumino R, Kuehn T, Kaaks R, Tsilidis K, Sanchez M-J, Amiano P, Ardanaz E, Chirlaque Lopez MD, Merino S, Rothwell JA, Boutron-Ruault M-C, Severi G, Sternby H, Sonestedt E, Bueno-de-Mesquita B, Boeing H, Travis R, Sandanger TM, Trichopoulou A, Karakatsani A, Peppa E, Tjonneland A, Yang Y, Hodge AM, Mitchell H, Haydon A, Room R, Hopper JL, Weiderpass E, Gunter MJ, Riboli E, Giles GG, Milne RL, Agudo A, English DR, Ferrari Pet al., 2021, Lifetime alcohol intake, drinking patterns over time and risk of stomach cancer: A pooled analysis of data from two prospective cohort studies, International Journal of Cancer, Vol: 148, Pages: 2759-2773, ISSN: 0020-7136

Alcohol consumption is causally linked to several cancers but the evidence for stomach cancer is inconclusive. In our study, the association between long-term alcohol intake and risk of stomach cancer and its subtypes was evaluated. We performed a pooled analysis of data collected at baseline from 491 714 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition and the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for incident stomach cancer in relation to lifetime alcohol intake and group-based life course intake trajectories, adjusted for potential confounders including Helicobacter pylori infection. In all, 1225 incident stomach cancers (78% noncardia) were diagnosed over 7 094 637 person-years; 984 in 382 957 study participants with lifetime alcohol intake data (5 455 507 person-years). Although lifetime alcohol intake was not associated with overall stomach cancer risk, we observed a weak positive association with noncardia cancer (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00-1.06 per 10 g/d increment), with a HR of 1.50 (95% CI: 1.08-2.09) for ≥60 g/d compared to 0.1 to 4.9 g/d. A weak inverse association with cardia cancer (HR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.87-1.00) was also observed. HRs of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.10-1.99) for noncardia and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.26-1.03) for cardia cancer were observed for a life course trajectory characterized by heavy decreasing intake compared to light stable intake (Phomogeneity = .02). These associations did not differ appreciably by smoking or H pylori infection status. Limiting alcohol use during lifetime, particularly avoiding heavy use during early adulthood, might help prevent noncardia stomach cancer. Heterogeneous associations observed for cardia and noncardia cancers may indicate etiologic differences.

Journal article

Papadimitriou N, Dimou N, Gill D, Tzoulaki I, Murphy N, Riboli E, Lewis SJ, Martin RM, Gunter MJ, Tsilidis KKet al., 2021, Genetically predicted circulating concentrations of micro-nutrients and risk of breast cancer: A Mendelian randomization study, International Journal of Cancer, Vol: 148, Pages: 646-653, ISSN: 0020-7136

The epidemiological literature reports inconsistent associations between consumption or circulating concentrations of micro-nutrients and breast cancer risk. We investigated associations between genetically predicted concentrations of 11 micro-nutrients (beta-carotene, calcium, copper, folate, iron, magnesium, phosphorus, selenium, vitamin B6, vitamin B12 and zinc) and breast cancer risk using Mendelian randomization (MR). A two-sample MR study was conducted using 122,977 women with breast cancer and 105,974 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. MR analyses were conducted using the inverse variance weighted approach, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of potential violations of MR assumptions. One standard deviation (SD: 0.08 mmol/L) higher genetically predicted concentration of magnesium was associated with a 17% (odds ratio [OR]: 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10 to 1.25, P-value=9.1 ×10-7 ) and 20% (OR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.34, P-value=3.2×10-6 ) higher risk of overall and ER+ve breast cancer, respectively. An inverse association was observed for a SD (0.5 mg/dL) higher genetically predicted phosphorus concentration and ER-ve breast cancer (OR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.72 to 0.98, P-value=0.03). There was little evidence that any other nutrient was associated with breast cancer. The results for magnesium were robust under all sensitivity analyses and survived correction for multiple comparisons. Higher circulating concentrations of magnesium and potentially phosphorus may affect breast cancer risk. Further work is required to replicate these findings and investigate underlying mechanisms.

Journal article

Ellingjord-Dale M, Papadimitriou N, Katsoulis M, Yee C, Dimou N, Gill D, Aune D, Ong J-S, MacGregor S, Elsworth B, Lewis SJ, Martin RM, Riboli E, Tsilidis KKet al., 2021, Coffee consumption and risk of breast cancer: A Mendelian randomization study, PLoS One, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1932-6203

Background:Observational studies have reported either null or weak protective associations for coffee consumption and risk of breast cancer.Methods:We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to evaluate the relationship between coffee consumption and breast cancer risk using 33 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with coffee consumption from a genome-wide association (GWA) study on 212,119 female UK Biobank participants of White British ancestry. Risk estimates for breast cancer were retrieved from publicly available GWA summary statistics from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) on 122,977 cases (of which 69,501 were estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, 21,468 ER-negative) and 105,974 controls of European ancestry. Random-effects inverse variance weighted (IVW) MR analyses were performed along with several sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of potential MR assumption violations.Results:One cup per day increase in genetically predicted coffee consumption in women was not associated with risk of total (IVW random-effects; odds ratio (OR): 0.91, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.80–1.02, P: 0.12, P for instrument heterogeneity: 7.17e-13), ER-positive (OR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.79–1.02, P: 0.09) and ER-negative breast cancer (OR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.75–1.03, P: 0.12). Null associations were also found in the sensitivity analyses using MR-Egger (total breast cancer; OR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.80–1.25), weighted median (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.89–1.05) and weighted mode (OR: 1.00, CI: 0.93–1.07).Conclusions:The results of this large MR study do not support an association of genetically predicted coffee consumption on breast cancer risk, but we cannot rule out existence of a weak association.

Journal article

Aleksandrova K, Reichmann R, Kaaks R, Jenab M, Bueno-de-Mesquita HB, Dahm CC, Eriksen AK, Tjønneland A, Artaud F, Boutron-Ruault M-C, Severi G, Hüsing A, Trichopoulou A, Karakatsani A, Peppa E, Panico S, Masala G, Grioni S, Sacerdote C, Tumino R, Elias SG, May AM, Borch KB, Sandanger TM, Skeie G, Sánchez M-J, Huerta JM, Sala N, Gurrea AB, Quirós JR, Amiano P, Berntsson J, Drake I, van Guelpen B, Harlid S, Key T, Weiderpass E, Aglago EK, Cross AJ, Tsilidis KK, Riboli E, Gunter MJet al., 2021, Development and validation of a lifestyle-based model for colorectal cancer risk prediction: the LiFeCRC score, BMC Medicine, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1741-7015

BACKGROUND: Nutrition and lifestyle have been long established as risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). Modifiable lifestyle behaviours bear potential to minimize long-term CRC risk; however, translation of lifestyle information into individualized CRC risk assessment has not been implemented. Lifestyle-based risk models may aid the identification of high-risk individuals, guide referral to screening and motivate behaviour change. We therefore developed and validated a lifestyle-based CRC risk prediction algorithm in an asymptomatic European population. METHODS: The model was based on data from 255,482 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study aged 19 to 70 years who were free of cancer at study baseline (1992-2000) and were followed up to 31 September 2010. The model was validated in a sample comprising 74,403 participants selected among five EPIC centres. Over a median follow-up time of 15 years, there were 3645 and 981 colorectal cancer cases in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Variable selection algorithms in Cox proportional hazard regression and random survival forest (RSF) were used to identify the best predictors among plausible predictor variables. Measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated in derivation and validation samples. To facilitate model communication, a nomogram and a web-based application were developed. RESULTS: The final selection model included age, waist circumference, height, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, vegetables, dairy products, processed meat, and sugar and confectionary. The risk score demonstrated good discrimination overall and in sex-specific models. Harrell's C-index was 0.710 in the derivation cohort and 0.714 in the validation cohort. The model was well calibrated and showed strong agreement between predicted and observed risk. Random survival forest analysis suggested high model robustness. Beyond age, li

Journal article

Karentzos A, Ntourakis D, Tsilidis K, Tsoulfas G, Papavramidis Tet al., 2021, Hinchey Ia acute diverticulitis with isolated pericolic air on CT imaging; to operate or not? A systematic review, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SURGERY, Vol: 85, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 1743-9191

Journal article

Allaf M, Elghazaly H, Mohamed OG, Fareen MFK, Zaman S, Salmasi A-M, Tsilidis K, Dehghan Aet al., 2021, Intermittent fasting for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, COCHRANE DATABASE OF SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS, ISSN: 1469-493X

Journal article

Katsoulis M, Lai AG, Kipourou D-K, Sofat R, Gomes M, Banerjee A, Denaxas S, Lumbers TR, Tsilidis K, Hemingway H, Diaz-Ordaz Ket al., 2020, How to estimate the association between change in a risk factor and a health outcome?, Publisher: arXiv

Estimating the effect of a change in a particular risk factor and a chronicdisease requires information on the risk factor from two time points; theenrolment and the first follow-up. When using observational data to study theeffect of such an exposure (change in risk factor) extra complications arise,namely (i) when is time zero? and (ii) which information on confounders shouldwe account for in this type of analysis? From enrolment or the 1st follow-up?Or from both?. The combination of these questions has proven to be verychallenging. Researchers have applied different methodologies with mixedsuccess, because the different choices made when answering these questionsinduce systematic bias. Here we review these methodologies and highlight thesources of bias in each type of analysis. We discuss the advantages and thelimitations of each method ending by making our recommendations on the analysisplan.

Working paper

Bull CJ, Bell JA, Murphy N, Sanderson E, Davey Smith G, Timpson NJ, Banbury BL, Albanes D, Berndt SI, Bezieau S, Bishop DT, Brenner H, Buchanan DD, Burnett-Hartman A, Casey G, Castellvi-Bel S, Chan AT, Chang-Claude J, Cross AJ, de la Chapelle A, Figueiredo JC, Gallinger SJ, Gapstur SM, Giles GG, Gruber SB, Gsur A, Hampe J, Hampel H, Harrison TA, Hoffmeister M, Hsu L, Huang W-Y, Huyghe JR, Jenkins MA, Joshu CE, Keku TO, Kuhn T, Kweon S-S, Le Marchand L, Li CI, Li L, Lindblom A, Martin V, May AM, Milne RL, Moreno V, Newcomb PA, Offit K, Ogino S, Phipps AI, Platz EA, Potter JD, Qu C, Quiros JR, Rennert G, Riboli E, Sakoda LC, Schafmayer C, Schoen RE, Slattery ML, Tangen CM, Tsilidis KK, Ulrich CM, van Duijnhoven FJB, van Guelpen B, Visvanathan K, Vodicka P, Vodickova L, Wang H, White E, Wolk A, Woods MO, Wu AH, Campbell PT, Zheng W, Peters U, Vincent EE, Gunter MJet al., 2020, Adiposity, metabolites, and colorectal cancer risk: Mendelian randomization study, BMC Medicine, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1741-7015

BackgroundHigher adiposity increases the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but whether this relationship varies by anatomical sub-site or by sex is unclear. Further, the metabolic alterations mediating the effects of adiposity on CRC are not fully understood.MethodsWe examined sex- and site-specific associations of adiposity with CRC risk and whether adiposity-associated metabolites explain the associations of adiposity with CRC. Genetic variants from genome-wide association studies of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, unadjusted for BMI; N = 806,810), and 123 metabolites from targeted nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics (N = 24,925), were used as instruments. Sex-combined and sex-specific Mendelian randomization (MR) was conducted for BMI and WHR with CRC risk (58,221 cases and 67,694 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Colorectal Cancer Transdisciplinary Study, and Colon Cancer Family Registry). Sex-combined MR was conducted for BMI and WHR with metabolites, for metabolites with CRC, and for BMI and WHR with CRC adjusted for metabolite classes in multivariable models.ResultsIn sex-specific MR analyses, higher BMI (per 4.2 kg/m2) was associated with 1.23 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08, 1.38) times higher CRC odds among men (inverse-variance-weighted (IVW) model); among women, higher BMI (per 5.2 kg/m2) was associated with 1.09 (95% CI = 0.97, 1.22) times higher CRC odds. WHR (per 0.07 higher) was more strongly associated with CRC risk among women (IVW OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.08, 1.43) than men (IVW OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.81, 1.36). BMI or WHR was associated with 104/123 metabolites at false discovery rate-corrected P ≤ 0.05; several metabolites were associated with CRC, but not in directions that were consistent with the mediation of positive adiposity-CRC relatio

Journal article

Papandreou C, Arija V, Aretouli E, Tsilidis KK, Bulló Met al., 2020, Comparing eating behaviours, and symptoms of depression and anxiety between Spain and Greece during the COVID-19 outbreak: Cross-sectional analysis of two different confinement strategies, European Eating Disorders Review, Vol: 28, Pages: 836-846, ISSN: 1072-4133

OBJECTIVE: We compared eating behaviours, and depressive and anxiety symptoms in two countries with different confinement strictness strategies and different levels of COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD: A web-based cross-sectional survey was administered during and shortly after the COVID-19 related lockdown in Spain and Greece. Multivariable linear regression analyses were performed to identify country differences associated with eating behaviour, and symptoms of depression and anxiety. RESULTS: This study included 1,002 responders in Spain and 839 in Greece. The mean ± SD of restraint, emotional and external eating was 2.5 ± 0.79, 2.1 ± 0.81 and 2.6 ± 0.65 in Spain, whereas 2.7 ± 0.85, 2.3 ± 0.99 and 2.9 ± 0.74 in Greece. Spanish participants had lower average scores of restraint and external eating compared to Greek participants (p < .001), but no difference was seen for emotional eating. In Spain, 13.6%, and 12.3% of the survey respondents reported moderate to severe depressive and anxiety symptoms, respectively, whereas in Greece the respective values were 18.8 and 13.2%. After adjusting for several risk factors, a higher prevalence of anxiety symptoms was observed in Spain compared to Greece (p = .001), but no difference was seen for depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated high scores of inappropriate eating behaviours and a high frequency of depressive and anxiety symptoms in two Mediterranean countries during the COVID-19 outbreak. Our findings revealed that compared to Greek participants, Spanish participants, that faced more severe COVID-19 pandemic and stricter lockdown measures, were associated with lower restraint and external eating and increased anxiety symptoms, but not with depressive symptoms or emotional eating.

Journal article

Karhunen V, Gill D, Malik R, Ponsford MJ, Ahola-Olli A, Papadopoulou A, Palaniswamy S, Mutt SJ, Sebert S, Männikkö M, Auvinen J, Veijola J, Herzig K-H, Timonen M, Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi S, Dichgans M, Salmi M, Jalkanen S, Lehtimäki T, Salomaa V, Raitakari O, Jones SA, Tsilidis KK, Järvelin M-R, Dehghan Aet al., 2020, Genetic study of circulating cytokines offers insight into the determinants, cascades and effects of systemic inflammation

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Cytokines are the signalling molecules that underlie inflammatory processes. Here, we performed genome-wide association study (GWAS) analyses of 47 circulating cytokines in up to 13,365 individuals to identify protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL). Applying a novel approach, we incorporated pQTL and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) data of 10,361 tissue samples in 635 individuals to identify biologically plausible genetic instruments to proxy the effect of cytokines. Using Mendelian randomization analysis, we explored the causal determinants of inflammatory cytokines, investigated inflammatory cascades and evaluated their effects on 20 diseases. We show evidence of body mass index (BMI), smoking and systolic blood pressure (SBP) being associated with inflammation, and specifically BMI affecting levels of active PAI-1, HGF, MCP1, sE-Selectin, sICAM1, TRAIL, IL6 and CRP. Our analysis highlights a key role of VEGF in influencing the levels of eight other inflammatory cytokines. Finally, we report evidence of sICAM affecting waist circumference and risk of major depressive disorder, evidence for TRAIL affecting the risk of cardiovascular diseases, breast and prostate cancer, and evidence for MIG affecting the risk of stroke. Overall, our results offer insight into inflammatory mediators of BMI, smoking and SBP, pleiotropic effects of VEGF, and circulating cytokines that increase the risk of cancer, cardiovascular, metabolic and neuropsychiatric diseases. All the studied cytokines represent pharmacological targets and therefore offer opportunities for clinical translation in diseases with inflammatory components.</jats:p>

Journal article

Dashti SG, English DR, Simpson JA, Karahalios A, Moreno-Betancur M, Biessy C, Rinaldi S, Ferrari P, Tjønneland A, Halkjær J, Dahm CC, Vistisen HT, Menegaux F, Perduca V, Severi G, Aleksandrova K, Schulze MB, Masala G, Sieri S, Tumino R, Macciotta A, Panico S, Hiensch AE, May AM, Quirós JR, Agudo A, Sánchez M-J, Amiano P, Colorado-Yohar S, Ardanaz E, Allen NE, Weiderpass E, Fortner RT, Christakoudi S, Tsilidis KK, Riboli E, Kaaks R, Gunter MJ, Viallon V, Dossus Let al., 2020, Adiposity and endometrial cancer risk in postmenopausal women: a sequential causal mediation analysis, Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention, Vol: 30, Pages: 104-113, ISSN: 1055-9965

BACKGROUND: Adiposity increases endometrial cancer risk, possibly through inflammation, hyperinsulinemia, and increasing estrogens. We aimed to quantify the mediating effects of adiponectin (anti-inflammatory adipocytokine); IL6, IL1-receptor antagonist, TNF receptor 1 and 2, and C-reactive protein (inflammatory status biomarkers); C-peptide (hyperinsulinemia biomarker); and free estradiol and estrone (estrogen biomarkers) in the adiposity-endometrial cancer link in postmenopausal women. METHODS: We used data from a case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Eligible women did not have cancer, hysterectomy, and diabetes; did not use oral contraceptives or hormone therapy; and were postmenopausal at recruitment. Mediating pathways from adiposity to endometrial cancer were investigated by estimating natural indirect (NIE) and direct (NDE) effects using sequential mediation analysis. RESULTS: The study included 163 cases and 306 controls. The adjusted OR for endometrial cancer for body mass index (BMI) ≥30 versus ≥18.5-<25 kg/m2 was 2.51 (95% confidence interval, 1.26-5.02). The ORsNIE were 1.95 (1.01-3.74) through all biomarkers [72% proportion mediated (PM)] decomposed as: 1.35 (1.06-1.73) through pathways originating with adiponectin (33% PM); 1.13 (0.71-1.80) through inflammation beyond (the potential influence of) adiponectin (13% PM); 1.05 (0.88-1.24) through C-peptide beyond adiponectin and inflammation (5% PM); and 1.22 (0.89-1.67) through estrogens beyond preceding biomarkers (21% PM). The ORNDE not through biomarkers was 1.29 (0.54-3.09). Waist circumference gave similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced adiponectin and increased inflammatory biomarkers, C-peptide, and estrogens mediated approximately 70% of increased odds of endometrial cancer in women with obesity versus normal weight. IMPACT: If replicated, these results could have implications for identifying targets for intervention to reduce e

Journal article

Zheng J-S, Luan J, Sofianopoulou E, Sharp SJ, Day FR, Imamura F, Gundersen TE, Lotta LA, Sluijs I, Stewart ID, Shah RL, van der Schouw YT, Wheeler E, Ardanaz E, Boeing H, Dorronsoro M, Dahm CC, Dimou N, El-Fatouhi D, Franks PW, Fagherazzi G, Grioni S, Huerta JM, Heath AK, Hansen L, Jenab M, Jakszyn P, Kaaks R, Kuehn T, Khaw K-T, Laouali N, Masala G, Nilsson PM, Overvad K, Olsen A, Panico S, Quiros JR, Rolandsson O, Rodriguez-Barranco M, Sacerdote C, Spijkerman AMW, Tong TYN, Tumino R, Tsilidis KK, Danesh J, Riboli E, Butterworth AS, Langenberg C, Forouhi NG, Wareham NJet al., 2020, The association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D metabolites and type 2 diabetes in European populations: A meta-analysis and Mendelian randomisation analysis, PLoS Medicine, Vol: 17, Pages: 1-21, ISSN: 1549-1277

BackgroundPrior research suggested a differential association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) metabolites with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with total 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3 inversely associated with T2D, but the epimeric form (C3-epi-25(OH)D3) positively associated with T2D. Whether or not these observational associations are causal remains uncertain. We aimed to examine the potential causality of these associations using Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis.Methods and findingsWe performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for total 25(OH)D (N = 120,618), 25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562), and C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562) in participants of European descent (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition [EPIC]–InterAct study, EPIC-Norfolk study, EPIC-CVD study, Ely study, and the SUNLIGHT consortium). We identified genetic variants for MR analysis to investigate the causal association of the 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D (including 80,983 T2D cases and 842,909 non-cases). We also estimated the observational association of 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D by performing random effects meta-analysis of results from previous studies and results from the EPIC-InterAct study. We identified 10 genetic loci associated with total 25(OH)D, 7 loci associated with 25(OH)D3 and 3 loci associated with C3-epi-25(OH)D3. Based on the meta-analysis of observational studies, each 1–standard deviation (SD) higher level of 25(OH)D was associated with a 20% lower risk of T2D (relative risk [RR]: 0.80; 95% CI 0.77, 0.84; p < 0.001), but a genetically predicted 1-SD increase in 25(OH)D was not significantly associated with T2D (odds ratio [OR]: 0.96; 95% CI 0.89, 1.03; p = 0.23); this result was consistent across sensitivity analyses. In EPIC-InterAct, 25(OH)D3 (per 1-SD) was associated with a lower risk of T2D (RR: 0.81; 95% CI 0.77, 0.86; p < 0.001), while C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (above versus below lower limit of quantification) was positively associated with T2D (R

Journal article

Markozannes G, Koutsioumpa C, Cividini S, Monori G, Tsilidis KK, Kretsavos N, Theodoratou E, Gill D, Ioannidis JPA, Tzoulaki Iet al., 2020, Global assessment of C-reactive protein and health-related outcomes: an umbrella review of evidence from observational studies and Mendelian randomization studies, European Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 36, Pages: 11-36, ISSN: 0393-2990

C-reactive protein (CRP) has been studied extensively for association with a large number of non-infectious diseases and outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the breadth and validity of associations between CRP and non-infectious, chronic health outcomes and biomarkers. We conducted an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses and a systematic review of Mendelian randomization (MR) studies. PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were systematically searched from inception up to March 2019. Meta-analyses of observational studies and MR studies examining associations between CRP and health outcomes were identified, excluding studies on the diagnostic value of CRP for infections. We found 113 meta-analytic comparisons of observational studies and 196 MR analyses, covering a wide range of outcomes. The overwhelming majority of the meta-analyses of observational studies reported a nominally statistically significant result (95/113, 84.1%); however, the majority of the meta-analyses displayed substantial heterogeneity (47.8%), small study effects (39.8%) or excess significance (41.6%). Only two outcomes, cardiovascular mortality and venous thromboembolism, showed convincing evidence of association with CRP levels. When examining the MR literature, we found MR studies for 53/113 outcomes examined in the observational study meta-analyses but substantial support for a causal association with CRP was not observed for any phenotype. Despite the striking amount of research on CRP, convincing evidence for associations and causal effects is remarkably limited.

Journal article

Deschasaux M, Huybrechts I, Julia C, Hercberg S, Egnell M, Srour B, Kesse-Guyot E, Latino-Martel P, Biessy C, Casagrande C, Murphy N, Jenab M, Ward HA, Weiderpass E, Overvad K, Tjønneland A, Rostgaard-Hansen AL, Boutron-Ruault M-C, Mancini FR, Mahamat-Saleh Y, Kühn T, Katzke V, Bergmann MM, Schulze MB, Trichopoulou A, Karakatsani A, Peppa E, Masala G, Agnoli C, De Magistris MS, Tumino R, Sacerdote C, Boer JM, Verschuren WM, van der Schouw YT, Skeie G, Braaten T, Redondo ML, Agudo A, Petrova D, Colorado-Yohar SM, Barricarte A, Amiano P, Sonestedt E, Ericson U, Otten J, Sundström B, Wareham NJ, Forouhi NG, Vineis P, Tsilidis KK, Knuppel A, Papier K, Ferrari P, Riboli E, Gunter MJ, Touvier Met al., 2020, Association between nutritional profiles of foods underlying Nutri-Score front-of-pack labels and mortality: EPIC cohort study in 10 European countries., BMJ, Vol: 370, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 1759-2151

OBJECTIVE: To determine if the Food Standards Agency nutrient profiling system (FSAm-NPS), which grades the nutritional quality of food products and is used to derive the Nutri-Score front-of-packet label to guide consumers towards healthier food choices, is associated with mortality. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort from 23 centres in 10 European countries. PARTICIPANTS: 521 324 adults; at recruitment, country specific and validated dietary questionnaires were used to assess their usual dietary intakes. A FSAm-NPS score was calculated for each food item per 100 g content of energy, sugars, saturated fatty acids, sodium, fibre, and protein, and of fruit, vegetables, legumes, and nuts. The FSAm-NPS dietary index was calculated for each participant as an energy weighted mean of the FSAm-NPS score of all foods consumed. The higher the score the lower the overall nutritional quality of the diet. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Associations between the FSAm-NPS dietary index score and mortality, assessed using multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS: After exclusions, 501 594 adults (median follow-up 17.2 years, 8 162 730 person years) were included in the analyses. Those with a higher FSAm-NPS dietary index score (highest versus lowest fifth) showed an increased risk of all cause mortality (n=53 112 events from non-external causes; hazard ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.10, P<0.001 for trend) and mortality from cancer (1.08, 1.03 to 1.13, P<0.001 for trend) and diseases of the circulatory (1.04, 0.98 to 1.11, P=0.06 for trend), respiratory (1.39, 1.22 to 1.59, P<0.001), and digestive (1.22, 1.02 to 1.45, P=0.03 for trend) systems. The age standardised absolute rates for all cause mortality per 10 000 persons over 10 years were 760 (men=1237; women=563) for those in the highest fifth of the FSA

Journal article

Bueno-de-Mesquita B, Cross A, Aune D, Tsilidis Ket al., 2020, Circulating bilirubin levels and risk of colorectal cancer: serological and Mendelian randomization analyses, BMC Medicine, Vol: 18, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 1741-7015

BACKGROUND: Bilirubin, a byproduct of hemoglobin breakdown and purported antioxidant, is thought to be cancer preventive. We conducted complementary serological and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate whether alterations in circulating levels of bilirubin are associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We decided a priori to perform analyses separately in men and women based on suggestive evidence that associations may differ by sex.METHODS: In a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), pre-diagnostic unconjugated bilirubin (UCB, main component of total bilirubin) concentrations were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography in plasma samples of 1386 CRC cases and their individually matched controls. Additionally, 115 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated (P < 5x10-8) with circulating total bilirubin were instrumented in a 2-sample MR to test for a potential causal effect of bilirubin on CRC risk in 52,775 CRC cases and 45,940 matched controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR), and the Colorectal Transdisciplinary (CORECT) study.RESULTS: The associations between circulating UCB levels and CRC risk differed by sex (Pheterogeneity=0.008). Among men, higher levels of UCB were positively associated with CRC risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.04-1.36; per 1-SD increment of log-UCB). In women, an inverse association was observed (OR = 0.86 (0.76-0.97)). In the MR analysis of the main UGT1A1 SNP (rs6431625), genetically predicted higher levels of total bilirubin, were associated with a 7% increase in CRC risk in men (OR = 1.07 (1.02-1.12); P=0.006; per 1-SD increment of total bilirubin), while there was no association in women (OR = 1.01 (0.96-1.06); P=0.73). Raised bilirubin levels, predicted by instrumental variables excluding rs6431625, were

Journal article

Christakoudi S, Tsilidis KK, Muller DC, Freisling H, Weiderpass E, Overvad K, Söderberg S, Häggström C, Pischon T, Dahm CC, Zhang J, Tjønneland A, Halkjær J, MacDonald C, Boutron-Ruault M-C, Mancini FR, Kühn T, Kaaks R, Schulze MB, Trichopoulou A, Karakatsani A, Peppa E, Masala G, Pala V, Panico S, Tumino R, Sacerdote C, Quirós JR, Agudo A, Sánchez M-J, Cirera L, Barricarte-Gurrea A, Amiano P, Memarian E, Sonestedt E, Bueno-de-Mesquita B, May AM, Khaw K-T, Wareham NJ, Tong TYN, Huybrechts I, Noh H, Aglago EK, Ellingjord-Dale M, Ward HA, Aune D, Riboli Eet al., 2020, ABSI (A Body Shape Index) achieves better mortality risk stratification than alternative indices of abdominal obesity: results from a large European cohort, Scientific Reports, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2045-2322

Abdominal and general adiposity are independently associated with mortality, but there is no consensus on how best to assess abdominal adiposity. We compared the ability of alternative waist indices to complement body mass index (BMI) when assessing all-cause mortality. We used data from 352,985 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for other risk factors. During a mean follow-up of 16.1 years, 38,178 participants died. Combining in one model BMI and a strongly correlated waist index altered the association patterns with mortality, to a predominantly negative association for BMI and a stronger positive association for the waist index, while combining BMI with the uncorrelated A Body Shape Index (ABSI) preserved the association patterns. Sex-specific cohort-wide quartiles of waist indices correlated with BMI could not separate high-risk from low-risk individuals within underweight (BMI<18.5 kg/m2) or obese (BMI≥30 kg/m2) categories, while the highest quartile of ABSI separated 18%-39% of the individuals within each BMI category, which had 22%-55% higher risk of death. In conclusion, only a waist index independent of BMI by design, such as ABSI, complements BMI and enables efficient risk stratification, which could facilitate personalisation of screening, treatment and monitoring.

Journal article

Jakszyn P, Cayssials V, Buckland G, Perez-Cornago A, Weiderpass E, Boeing H, Bergmann MM, Vulcan A, Ohlsson B, Masala G, Cross AJ, Riboli E, Ricceri F, Dahm C, Nyvang D, Katzke VA, Kühns T, Kyrø C, Tjønneland A, Ward HA, Tsilidis KK, Skeie G, Sieri S, Sanchez MJ, Huerta JM, Amiano P, Lasheras C, Ardanaz E, Mahamat-Saleh Y, Boutron-Ruault MC, Carbonnel F, Panico S, Peppa E, Trichopoulou A, Karakatsani A, Tumino R, Vermeulen R, Jenab M, Gunter M, Agudo Aet al., 2020, Inflammatory potential of the diet and risk of colorectal cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, International Journal of Cancer, Vol: 147, Pages: 1027-1039, ISSN: 0020-7136

Pro-inflammatory diets are associated with risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC), however inconsistencies exist in subsite- and sex-specific associations. The relationship between CRC and combined lifestyle-related factors that contribute towards a low-grade inflammatory profile has not yet been explored. We examined the association between the dietary inflammatory potential and an inflammatory profile and CRC risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. This cohort included 476,160 participants followed-up of 14 years and 5,991 incident CRC cases (3,897 colon and 2,094 rectal tumours). Dietary inflammatory potential was estimated using an Inflammatory Score of the Diet (ISD). An Inflammatory Profile Score (IPS) was constructed, incorporating the ISD, physical activity level and abdominal obesity. The associations between the ISD and CRC and IPS and CRC were assessed using multivariable regression models. More pro- inflammatory diets were related to a higher CRC risk, particularly for colon cancer; Hazar Ratio (HR) for highest versus lowest ISD quartile was 1.15 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.27) for CRC, 1.24 (95% CI 1.09-1.41) for colon cancer and 0.99 (95% CI 0.83-1.17) for rectal cancer. Associations were more pronounced in men and not significant in women. The IPS was associated with CRC risk, particularly colon cancer among men; HRs for the highest versus lowest IPS were 1.62 (95% CI 1.31- 2.01) for colon cancer overall and 2.11 (95% CI 1.50-2.97) for colon cancer in men. This study shows that more pro-inflammatory diets and a more inflammatory profile are associated with higher risk of CRC, principally colon cancer and in men. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Journal article

Kliemann N, Murphy N, Viallon V, Freisling H, Tsilidis KK, Rinaldi S, Mancini FR, Fagherazzi G, Boutron-Ruault M-C, Boeing H, Schulze MB, Masala G, Krogh V, Sacerdote C, Santucci de Magistris M, Bueno-de-Mesquita B, Weiderpass E, Kühn T, Kaaks R, Jakszyn P, Redondo-Sánchez D, Amiano P, Chirlaque M-D, Barricarte Gurrea A, Ericson U, Drake I, Nøst TH, Aune D, May AM, Tjønneland A, Dahm CC, Overvad K, Tumino R, Ramón Quirós J, Trichopoulou A, Karakatsani A, La Vecchia C, Nilsson LM, Riboli E, Huybrechts I, Gunter MJet al., 2020, Predicted Basal metabolic rate and cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Epic), International Journal of Cancer, Vol: 147, Pages: 648-661, ISSN: 0020-7136

Emerging evidence suggests that a metabolic profile associated with obesity may be a more relevant risk factor for some cancers than adiposity per se. Basal metabolic rate (BMR) is an indicator of overall body metabolism and may be a proxy for the impact of a specific metabolic profile on cancer risk. Therefore, we investigated the association of estimated BMR with incidence of 13 obesity-related cancers in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Estimated BMR at baseline was calculated using the WHO/FAO/UNU equations and the relationships between BMR and cancer risk were investigated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. A total of 141,295 men and 317,613 women, with a mean follow-up of 14 years were included in the analysis. Overall, higher BMR was associated with a greater risk for most cancers that have been linked with obesity. However, among normal weight participants, higher BMR was associated with elevated risks of esophageal adenocarcinoma (Hazard Ratio per 1-standard deviation change in BMR [HR1-sd ]: 2.46; 95%CI 1.20; 5.03), and distal colon cancer (HR1-sd : 1.33; 95%CI 1.001; 1.77) among men, and with proximal colon (HR1-sd : 1.16; 95%CI 1.01; 1.35), pancreatic (HR1-sd : 1.37; 95%CI 1.13; 1.66), thyroid (HR1-sd : 1.65; 95%CI 1.33; 2.05), postmenopausal breast (HR1-sd : 1.17; 95%CI 1.11; 1.22), and endometrial (HR1-sd : 1.20; 95%CI 1.03; 1.40) cancers in women. These results indicate that higher BMR may be an indicator of a metabolic phenotype associated with risk of certain cancer types, and may be a useful predictor of cancer risk independent of body fatness. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Journal article

Ellingjord-Dale M, Papadimitriou N, Katsoulis M, Yee C, Dimou N, Gill D, Aune D, Ong J-S, MacGregor S, Elsworth B, Lewis SJ, Martin RM, Riboli E, Tsilidis KKet al., 2020, Coffee consumption and risk of breast cancer: a Mendelian Randomization study

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Observational studies have reported either null or weak protective associations for coffee consumption and risk of breast cancer.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization randomization (MR) analysis to evaluate the relationship between coffee consumption and breast cancer risk using 33 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with coffee consumption from a genome-wide association (GWA) study on 212,119 female UK Biobank participants of White British ancestry. Risk estimates for breast cancer were retrieved from publicly available GWA summary statistics from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) on 122,977 cases (of which 69,501 were estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, 21,468 ER-negative) and 105,974 controls of European ancestry. Random-effects inverse variance weighted (IVW) MR analyses were performed along with several sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of potential MR assumption violations.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>One cup per day increase in genetically predicted coffee consumption in women was not associated with risk of total (IVW random-effects; odds ratio (OR): 0.91, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.80-1.02, P: 0.12, P for instrument heterogeneity: 7.17e-13), ER-positive (OR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.79-1.02, P: 0.09) and ER-negative breast cancer (OR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.75-1.03, P: 0.12). Null associations were also found in the sensitivity analyses using MR-Egger (total breast cancer; OR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.80-1.25), weighted median (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.89-1.05) and weighted mode (OR: 1.00, CI: 0.93-1.07).</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions</jats:title><jats:p>The results of this large

Journal article

Gill D, Zuber V, Dawson J, Pearson-Stuttard J, Carter AR, Sanderson E, Karhunen V, Levin MG, Wootton RE, Klarin D, Tsao PS, Tsilidis KK, Damrauer SM, Burgess S, Elliott Pet al., 2020, Risk factors mediating the effect of body-mass index and waist-to-hip ratio on cardiovascular outcomes: Mendelian randomization analysis

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Higher body-mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, but the extent to which this is mediated by blood pressure, diabetes, lipid traits and smoking is not fully understood.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>Using consortia and UK Biobank genetic association summary data from 140,595 to 898,130 participants predominantly of European ancestry, MR mediation analysis was performed to investigate the degree to which genetically predicted systolic blood pressure (SBP), diabetes, lipid traits and smoking mediated an effect of genetically predicted BMI and WHR on risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), peripheral artery disease (PAD) and stroke.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>The 49% (95% confidence interval [CI] 39%-60%) increased risk of CAD conferred per 1-standard deviation increase in genetically predicted BMI attenuated to 34% (95% CI 24%-45%) after adjusting for genetically predicted SBP, to 27% (95% CI 17%-37%) after adjusting for genetically predicted diabetes, to 47% (95% CI 36%-59%) after adjusting for genetically predicted lipids, and to 46% (95% CI 34%-58%) after adjusting for genetically predicted smoking. Adjusting for all the mediators together, the increased risk attenuated to 14% (95% CI 4%-26%). A similar pattern of attenuation was observed when considering genetically predicted WHR as the exposure, and PAD or stroke as the outcomes.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions</jats:title><jats:p>Measures to reduce obesity will lower risk of cardiovascular disease primarily by impacting on downstream metabolic risk factors, particularly diabetes and hypertension. Reduction of obesity prevalence alongs

Working paper

Zhang X, Gill D, He Y, Yang T, Li X, Monori G, Campbell H, Dunlop M, Tsilidis KK, Timofeeva M, Theodoratou Eet al., 2020, Non-genetic biomarkers and colorectal cancer risk: Umbrella review and evidence triangulation, Cancer Medicine, Vol: 9, Pages: 4823-4835, ISSN: 2045-7634

Several associations between non-genetic biomarkers and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk have been detected, but the strength of evidence and the direction of associations are not confirmed. We aimed to evaluate the evidence of these associations and integrate results from different approaches to assess causal inference. We searched Medline and Embase for meta-analyses of observational studies, meta-analyses of randomized clinical trials (RCTs), and Mendelian randomization (MR) studies measuring the associations between non-genetic biomarkers and CRC risk and meta-analyses of RCTs on supplementary micronutrients. We repeated the meta-analyses using random-effects models and categorized the evidence based on predefined criteria. We described each MR study and evaluated their credibility. Seventy-two meta-analyses of observational studies and 18 MR studies on non-genetic biomarkers and six meta-analyses of RCTs on micronutrient intake and CRC risk considering 65, 42, and five unique associations, respectively, were identified. No meta-analyses of RCTs on blood level biomarkers have been found. None of the associations were classified as convincing or highly suggestive, three were classified as suggestive, and 26 were classified as weak. For three biomarkers explored in MR studies, there was evidence of causality and seven were classified as likely noncausal. For the first time, results from both observational and MR studies were integrated by triangulating the evidence for a wide variety of non-genetic biomarkers and CRC risk. At blood level, lower vitamin D, higher homeostatic model assessment-insulin resistance, and human papillomavirus infection were associated with higher CRC risk while increased linoleic acid and oleic acid and decreased arachidonic acid were likely causally associated with lower CRC risk. No association was found convincing in both study types.

Journal article

Lopez DS, Wulaningsih W, Tsilidis KK, Baillargeon J, Williams SB, Urban R, Rohrmann Set al., 2020, Environment-wide association study to comprehensively test and validate associations between nutrition and lifestyle factors and testosterone deficiency: NHANES 1988-1994 and 1999-2004, Hormones-International Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Vol: 19, Pages: 205-214, ISSN: 1109-3099

PurposeTestosterone (T) plays an important role in men’s health and its deficiency is linked with poorer health. However, the role of nutritional and lifestyle factors in T regulation and production remains unclear. The objectives are to comprehensively test the cross-sectional associations of nutritional and lifestyle factors with T deficiency and to validate the associations in the NHANES survey.MethodsWe performed weighted multivariable logistic regression analysis to examine the association of 173 nutritional and lifestyle factors with T deficiency (total testosterone ≤ 3.5 ng/mL) in NHANES III as the discovery set (mean age 41). We controlled for multiple comparisons with a false discovery rate (FDR) < 5% and replicated in NHANES 1999–2004 (mean age 44).ResultsWe identified seven nutritional factors as being inversely associated with T deficiency in NHANES 1999–2004, namely dietary intake of vitamin A, protein, saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, total fats, saturated fatty acid 16:0, and phosphorus. In a multivariable model, only vitamin A intake remained significantly associated with T deficiency (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94–0.99). Principal component analysis suggested that the two principal components, (1) dietary fats, protein, and phosphorous and (2) total vitamin A, may be associated with T deficiency.ConclusionOur systematic evaluation provided new insight into the modifiable factors that could play a role in the regulation of T production. This study has the potential to contribute to the current body of literature which seeks to formulate a clinical definition of T deficiency after taking into account nutritional and lifestyle factors.

Journal article

Elhadad MA, Karavasiloglou N, Wulaningsih W, Tsilidis KK, Tzoulaki I, Patel CJ, Rohrmann Set al., 2020, Metabolites, nutrients, and lifestyle factors in relation to coffee consumption: an environment-wide association study, Nutrients, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2072-6643

Coffee consumption has been inversely associated with various diseases; however, the underlying mechanisms are not entirely clear. We used data of 17,752 Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey participants to investigate the association of 245 metabolites, nutrients, and lifestyle factors with coffee consumption. We used data from the first phase (n = 8825) to identify factors with a false discovery rate of <5%. We then replicated our results using data from the second phase (n = 8927). Regular coffee consumption was positively associated with active and passive smoking, serum lead and urinary cadmium concentrations, dietary intake of potassium and magnesium, and aspirin intake. In contrast, regular coffee consumption was inversely associated with serum folate and red blood cell folate levels, serum vitamin E and C, and beta-cryptoxanthin concentrations, Healthy Eating Index score, and total serum bilirubin. Most of the aforementioned associations were also observed for caffeinated beverage intake. In our assessment of the association between coffee consumption and selected metabolites, nutrients, and lifestyle factors, we observed that regular coffee and caffeinated beverage consumption was strongly associated with smoking, serum lead levels, and poorer dietary habits.

Journal article

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