Imperial College London
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Dr Kate Mitchell

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Honorary Senior Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3342kate.mitchell Website

 
 
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Location

 

UG4Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Booton:2021:10.1002/jia2.25697,
author = {Booton, RD and Fu, G and MacGregor, L and Li, J and Ong, JJ and Tucker, JD and Turner, KM and Tang, W and Vickerman, P and Mitchell, KM},
doi = {10.1002/jia2.25697},
journal = {Journal of the International AIDS Society},
title = {The impact of disruptions due to COVID-19 on HIV transmission and control among men who have sex with men in China},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jia2.25697},
volume = {24},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting HIV care globally, with gaps in HIV treatment expected to increase HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality. We estimated how COVID-19-related disruptions could impact HIV transmission and mortality among men who have sex with men (MSM) in four cities in China, over a one- and five-year time horizon. METHODS: Regional data from China indicated that the number of MSM undergoing facility-based HIV testing reduced by 59% during the COVID-19 pandemic, alongside reductions in ART initiation (34%), numbers of all sexual partners (62%) and consistency of condom use (25%), but initial data indicated no change in viral suppression. A mathematical model of HIV transmission/treatment among MSM was used to estimate the impact of disruptions on HIV infections/HIV-related deaths. Disruption scenarios were assessed for their individual and combined impact over one and five years for 3/4/6-month disruption periods, starting from 1 January 2020. RESULTS: Our model predicted new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths would be increased most by disruptions to viral suppression, with 25% reductions (25% virally suppressed MSM stop taking ART) for a three-month period increasing HIV infections by 5% to 14% over one year and deaths by 7% to 12%. Observed reductions in condom use increased HIV infections by 5% to 14% but had minimal impact (<1%) on deaths. Smaller impacts on infections and deaths (<3%) were seen for disruptions to facility HIV testing and ART initiation, but reduced partner numbers resulted in 11% to 23% fewer infections and 0.4% to 1.0% fewer deaths. Longer disruption periods (4/6 months) amplified the impact of disruption scenarios. When realistic disruptions were modelled simultaneously, an overall decrease in new HIV infections occurred over one year (3% to 17%), but not for five years (1% increase to 4% decrease), whereas deaths mostly increased over one year (1% to 2%) and five years (1.2 increase to 0.3 d
AU  - Booton,RD
AU  - Fu,G
AU  - MacGregor,L
AU  - Li,J
AU  - Ong,JJ
AU  - Tucker,JD
AU  - Turner,KM
AU  - Tang,W
AU  - Vickerman,P
AU  - Mitchell,KM
DO  - 10.1002/jia2.25697
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 1758-2652
TI  - The impact of disruptions due to COVID-19 on HIV transmission and control among men who have sex with men in China
T2  - Journal of the International AIDS Society
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jia2.25697
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33821553
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/87701
VL  - 24
ER  -
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