Imperial College London
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Dr Kate Mitchell

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Honorary Senior Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3342kate.mitchell Website

 
 
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Location

 

UG4Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Wong:2022:10.1186/s12879-021-06963-2,
author = {Wong, NS and Lee, SS and Mitchell, KM and Yeoh, E-K and Wang, C},
doi = {10.1186/s12879-021-06963-2},
journal = {BMC Infectious Diseases},
title = {Impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06963-2},
volume = {22},
year = {2022}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BACKGROUND: With the evolving growth of the COVID-19 epidemic, travel restriction policies would need to be adjusted accordingly. Prohibition of mass event may be relaxed for social and economic benefits when virus transmission stops but could bear the risk of epidemic rebound. Against the background of the varied SARS-CoV-2 prevalence internationally, we modelled the potential impacts of pre-event interventions on epidemic risk of holding a mass event when COVID-19 is under control. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Guangdong Province, China, where local virus transmission ceased to occur. A large-scale international trade fair was assumed to be held, with influx of people from overseas and rest of China over a short period of time, who participated for 2-week. Scenarios of pre-event intervention (none, quarantine arrangement and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for participants) were compared. The influence of contact pattern, SARS-CoV-2 prevalence outside the province and China, and testing coverage were examined in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: In basecase scenario (no event), the epidemic has been under control since March 2020. The event would lead to the detection of 1% more confirmed cases by 31 July when community contact rate increases to pre-epidemic level. In event scenario without additional interventions, there would be 599 (93%) more new infections comparing with basecase scenario. To avert new infections, quarantining all participants before the event would be the most effective strategy, followed by quarantining all overseas participants and testing all other participants, and testing all participants before the event and on day 7. However, testing strategy is likely to be affected by the SARS-CoV-2 prevalence outside the event province. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-event interventions are effective for reducing the risk of epidemic rebound caused by an international large-scale event. Universal testing for partici
AU  - Wong,NS
AU  - Lee,SS
AU  - Mitchell,KM
AU  - Yeoh,E-K
AU  - Wang,C
DO  - 10.1186/s12879-021-06963-2
PY  - 2022///
SN  - 1471-2334
TI  - Impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study
T2  - BMC Infectious Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06963-2
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35073868
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/93974
VL  - 22
ER  -
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