Imperial College London

DrKrisMurray

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Senior Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

kris.murray

 
 
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Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
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68 results found

Pintor AFV, Ray N, Longbottom J, Bravo-Vega CA, Yousefi M, Murray KA, Ediriweera DS, Diggle PJet al., 2021, Addressing the global snakebite crisis with geo-spatial analyses - Recent advances and future direction., Toxicon X, Vol: 11

Venomous snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that annually leads to hundreds of thousands of deaths or long-term physical and mental ailments across the developing world. Insufficient data on spatial variation in snakebite risk, incidence, human vulnerability, and accessibility of medical treatment contribute substantially to ineffective on-ground management. There is an urgent need to collect data, fill knowledge gaps and address on-ground management problems. The use of novel, and transdisciplinary approaches that take advantage of recent advances in spatio-temporal models, 'big data', high performance computing, and fine-scale spatial information can add value to snakebite management by strategically improving our understanding and mitigation capacity of snakebite. We review the background and recent advances on the topic of snakebite related geospatial analyses and suggest avenues for priority research that will have practical on-ground applications for snakebite management and mitigation. These include streamlined, targeted data collection on snake distributions, snakebites, envenomings, venom composition, health infrastructure, and antivenom accessibility along with fine-scale models of spatio-temporal variation in snakebite risk and incidence, intraspecific venom variation, and environmental change modifying human exposure. These measures could improve and 'future-proof' antivenom production methods, antivenom distribution and stockpiling systems, and human-wildlife conflict management practices, while simultaneously feeding into research on venom evolution, snake taxonomy, ecology, biogeography, and conservation.

Journal article

Ediriweera DS, Kasthuriratne A, Pathmeswaran A, Gunawardene NK, Jayamanne SF, Murray K, Iwamura T, Isbister G, Dawson A, Lalloo DG, de Silva HJ, Diggle PJet al., 2021, Evaluating spatiotemporal dynamics of snakebite in Sri Lanka: Monthly incidence mapping from a national representative survey sample, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 15, ISSN: 1935-2735

Journal article

Huxley PJ, Murray KA, Pawar S, Cator LJet al., 2021, The effect of resource limitation on the temperature-dependence of mosquito population fitness, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol: 288, ISSN: 0962-8452

Laboratory-derived temperature dependencies of life history traits are increasingly being usedto make mechanistic predictions for how climatic warming will affect vector-borne diseasedynamics, partially by affecting abundance dynamics of the vector population. Thesetemperature-trait relationships are typically estimated from juvenile populations reared onoptimal resource supply, even though natural populations of vectors are expected toexperience variation in resource supply, including intermittent resource limitation. Usinglaboratory experiments on the mosquito Aedes aegypti, a principal arbovirus vector,combined with stage-structured population modelling, we show that low-resource supply inthe juvenile life stages significantly depresses the vector’s maximal population growth rateacross the entire temperature range (22–32°C) and causes it to peak at a lower temperaturethan at high-resource supply. This effect is primarily driven by an increase in juvenilemortality and development time, combined with a decrease in adult size with temperature atlow-resource supply. Our study suggests that most projections of temperature-dependentvector abundance and disease transmission are likely to be biased because they are based ontraits measured under optimal resource supply. Our results provide compelling evidence forfuture studies to consider resource supply when predicting the effects of climate and habitatchange on vector-borne disease transmission, disease vectors and other arthropods.

Journal article

Charnley G, Murray K, Gaythorpe K, Kelman Iet al., 2021, Traits and risk factors of post-disaster infectious disease outbreaks: a systematic review, Scientific Reports, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 2045-2322

Infectious disease outbreaks are increasingly recognised as events that exacerbate impacts or prolong recovery following disasters. Yet, our understanding of the frequency, geography, characteristics and risk factors of post-disaster disease outbreaks globally is lacking. This limits the extent to which disease outbreak risks can be prepared for, monitored and responded to following disasters. Here, we conducted a global systematic review of post-disaster outbreaks and found that outbreaks linked to conflicts and hydrological events were most frequently reported, and most often caused by bacterial and water-borne agents. Lack of adequate WASH facilities and poor housing were commonly reported risk factors. Displacement, through infrastructure damage, can lead to risk cascades for disease outbreaks; however, displacement can also be an opportunity to remove people from danger and ultimately protect health. The results shed new light on post-disaster disease outbreaks and their risks. Understanding these risk factors and cascades, could help improve future region-specific disaster risk reduction.

Journal article

Fisher MC, Murray KA, 2021, Emerging infections and the integrative environment-health sciences: the road ahead, Nature Reviews Microbiology, Vol: 19, Pages: 133-135, ISSN: 1740-1526

The integrative environment-health sciences including One Health, Conservation Medicine, EcoHealth and Planetary Health embody the transdisciplinary synthesis needed to understand the multitude of factors that underpin emerging infections and their management. Future successes in confronting and resolving the complex causal basis of disease emergence to generate robust, systems-oriented risk reduction strategies that preserve both human health as well as promoting sustainable futures represent the ‘Moon Shot’ for the integrative environment-health sciences.

Journal article

Watts N, Amann M, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Beagley J, Belesova K, Boykoff M, Byass P, Cai W, Campbell-Lendrum D, Capstick S, Chambers J, Coleman S, Dalin C, Daly M, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Di Napoli C, Dominguez-Salas P, Drummond P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Escobar LE, Georgeson L, Golder S, Grace D, Graham H, Haggar P, Hamilton I, Hartinger S, Hess J, Hsu S-C, Hughes N, Mikhaylov SJ, Jimenez MP, Kelman I, Kennard H, Kiesewetter G, Kinney PL, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Lampard P, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Lowe R, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McGushin A, McMichael C, Milner J, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Sewe MO, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Pencheon D, Quinn R, Rabbaniha M, Robinson E, Rocklov J, Romanello M, Semenza JC, Sherman J, Shi L, Springmann M, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Trinanes J, Shumake-Guillemot J, Vu B, Wilkinson P, Winning M, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello Aet al., 2021, The 2020 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises, LANCET, Vol: 397, Pages: 129-170, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Goldstein E, Erinjery JJ, Martin G, Kasturiratne A, Ediriweera DS, de Silva HJ, Diggle P, Lalloo DG, Murray KA, Iwamura Tet al., 2021, Integrating human behavior and snake ecology with agent-based models to predict snakebite in high risk landscapes, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 15, ISSN: 1935-2735

Journal article

Murray KA, Escobar LE, Lowe R, Rocklöv J, Semenza JC, Watts Net al., 2020, Tracking infectious diseases in a warming world., BMJ, Vol: 371

Journal article

Charnley G, Murray K, Katy G, Kelman Iet al., 2020, Understanding the risks for post-disaster infectious disease outbreaks: a systematic review protocol, BMJ Open, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2044-6055

IntroductionDisasters have many forms, including those related to natural hazards and armed conflict. Human-inducedglobal change, such as climate change, may alter hazard parameters of these disasters. These alterations canhave serious consequences for vulnerable populations, which often experience post-disaster infectiousdisease outbreaks, leading to morbidity and mortality. The risks and drivers for these outbreaks and theirability to form cascades, are somewhat contested. Despite evidence for post-disaster outbreaks, reviewsquantifying them have been on short time scales, specific geographic areas or specific hazards. This reviewaims to fill this gap and gain a greater understanding of the risk factors involved in these contextualoutbreaks on a global level.Methods and analysisUsing the PRISMA-P 2015 checklist and Khan’s methodological framework, a systematic search strategywill be created and carried out in August 2020. The strategy will search MEDLINE, Embase andGlobalHealth electronic databases and reference lists of selected literature will also be screened. Eligiblestudies will include any retrospective cross-sectional, case-control or cohort studies investigating aninfectious disease outbreak in a local disaster affected population. Studies will not be excluded based ongeographic area or publication date. Excluded papers will include non-English studies, reviews, single casestudies and research discussing general risk factors, international refugee camps, public health, mental healthand other non-communicable diseases, pathogen genetics or economics. Following selection, data will beextracted into a data charting form, that will be reviewed by other members of the team. The data will thenbe analysed both numerically and narratively.Ethics and disseminationOnly secondary data will be used and there will be no public or patient involvement; therefore, no ethicalapproval is needed. Our findings will aim to be disseminated through a peer-reviewed journal.

Journal article

Iwamura T, Guzman-Holst A, Murray K, 2020, Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change, Nature Communications, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2041-1723

Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became ~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950–2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2–4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from ~2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector’s global invasion potential.

Journal article

Tham S, Thompson R, Landeg O, Murray KA, Waite Tet al., 2020, Indoor temperature and health: a global systematic review, Public Health, Vol: 179, Pages: 9-17, ISSN: 0033-3506

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to identify and appraise evidence on the direct and indirect impacts of high indoor temperatures on health; the indoor temperature threshold at which the identified health impacts are observed; and to summarise the evidence for establishing a maximum indoor temperature threshold for health. STUDY DESIGN: This is a systematic literature review and narrative synthesis. METHODS: A review of the published literature using MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, PsycINFO, Maternity and Infant Care, Cochrane Library, CINAHL and GreenFILE databases was conducted. The search criteria were kept broad to capture evidence from all countries and contexts; no date or study design limits were applied, except English language limits. We included studies that specifically measured indoor temperature and examined its effect on physical or mental health outcomes. Evidence was graded using the National Institutes of Health framework. RESULTS: Twenty-two articles were included in the review, including 11 observational, seven cross-sectional and three longitudinal cohort studies and one prospective case-control study. Eight main health effects were described: respiratory, blood pressure, core temperature, blood glucose, mental health and cognition, heat-health symptoms, physical functioning and influenza transmission. Five studies found respiratory symptoms worsened in warm indoor environments, with one reporting indoor temperatures higher than 26 °C, which was associated with increased respiratory distress calls being made to paramedics (odds ratio = 1.63, P = 0.056). Core symptoms of schizophrenia and dementia were found to be significantly exacerbated by indoor heat (the latter above a 26 °C cumulative exposure threshold). The absorption of insulin doses in people with type one diabetes was also significantly accelerated in hot indoor environments. Only five studies reported the temperatures at which health out

Journal article

Murray K, Martin G, Iwamura T, 2020, Focus on snake ecology to fight snakebite, The Lancet, Vol: 395, Pages: e14-e14, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Watts N, Amann M, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Belesova K, Boykoff M, Byass P, Cai W, Campbell-Lendrum D, Capstick S, Chambers J, Dalin C, Daly M, Dasandi N, Davies M, Drummond P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Escobar LE, Montoya LF, Georgeson L, Graham H, Haggar P, Hamilton I, Hartinger S, Hess J, Kelman I, Kiesewetter G, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Lemke B, Liu Y, Lott M, Lowe R, Sewe MO, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McGushin A, Mikhaylov SJ, Milner J, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Murray K, Munzert S, Nilsson M, Neville T, Oreszczyn T, Owfi F, Pearman O, Pencheon D, Dung P, Pye S, Quinn R, Rabbaniha M, Robinson E, Rocklov J, Semenza JC, Sherman J, Shumake-Guillemot J, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Trinanes J, Wilkinson P, Costello A, Gong P, Montgomery Het al., 2019, The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate, The Lancet, Vol: 394, Pages: 1836-1878, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Tallis H, Kreis K, Olander L, Ringler C, Ameyaw D, Borsuk ME, Fletschner D, Game E, Gilligan DO, Jeuland M, Kennedy G, Masuda YJ, Mehta S, Miller N, Parker M, Pollino C, Rajaratnam J, Wilkie D, Zhang W, Ahmed S, Ajayi OC, Alderman H, Arhonditsis G, Azevedo I, Badola R, Bailis R, Balvanera P, Barbour E, Bardini M, Barton DN, Baumgartner J, Benton TG, Bobrow E, Bossio D, Bostrom A, Braimoh A, Brondizio E, Brown J, Bryant BP, Calder RSD, Chaplin-Kramer B, Cullen A, DeMello N, Dickinson KL, Ebi KL, Eves HE, Fanzo J, Ferraro PJ, Fisher B, Frongillo EA, Galford G, Garrity D, Gatere L, Grieshop AP, Grigg NJ, Groves C, Gugerty MK, Hamm M, Hou X, Huang C, Imhoff M, Jack D, Jones AD, Kelsey R, Kothari M, Kumar R, Lachat C, Larsen A, Lawrence M, DeClerck F, Levin PS, Mabaya E, Gibson JM, McDonald RI, Mace G, Maertens R, Mangale DI, Martino R, Mason S, Mehta L, Meinzen-Dick R, Merz B, Msangi S, Murray G, Murray KA, Naude CE, Newlands NK, Nkonya E, Peterman A, Petruney T, Possingham H, Puri J, Remans R, Remlinger L, Ricketts TH, Reta B, Robinson BE, Roe D, Rosenthal J, Shen G, Shindell D, Stewart-Koster B, Sunderland T, Sutherland WJ, Tewksbury J, Wasser H, Wear S, Webb C, Whittington D, Wilkerson M, Wittmer H, Wood BDK, Wood S, Wu J, Yadama G, Zobrist Set al., 2019, Aligning evidence generation and use across health, development, and environment, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Vol: 39, Pages: 81-93, ISSN: 1877-3435

Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fractured across sectors due to methodological and conceptual differences in research and practice. Aligned methods are needed to support Sustainable Development Goal advances and similar agendas. The Bridge Collaborative, an emergent research-practice collaboration, presents principles and recommendations that help harmonize methods for evidence generation and use. Recommendations were generated in the context of designing and evaluating evidence of impact for interventions related to five global challenges (stabilizing the global climate, making food production sustainable, decreasing air pollution and respiratory disease, improving sanitation and water security, and solving hunger and malnutrition) and serve as a starting point for further iteration and testing in a broader set of contexts and disciplines. We adopted six principles and emphasize three methodological recommendations: (1) creation of compatible results chains, (2) consideration of all relevant types of evidence, and (3) evaluation of strength of evidence using a unified rubric. We provide detailed suggestions for how these recommendations can be applied in practice, streamlining efforts to apply multi-objective approaches and/or synthesize evidence in multidisciplinary or transdisciplinary teams. These recommendations advance the necessary process of reconciling existing evidence standards in health, development, and environment, and initiate a common basis for integrated evidence generation and use in research, practice, and policy design.

Journal article

Ediriweera DS, Kasthuriratne A, Pathmeswaran A, Gunawardene NK, Jayamanne SF, Murray K, Iwamura T, Lalloo DG, de Silva HJ, Diggle PJet al., 2019, Adjusting for spatial variation when assessing individual-level risk: A case-study in the epidemiology of snake-bite in Sri Lanka, PLoS One, Vol: 14, ISSN: 1932-6203

BACKGROUND: Health outcomes and causality are usually assessed with individual level sociodemographic variables. Studies that consider only individual-level variables can suffer from residual confounding. This can result in individual variables that are unrelated to risk behaving as proxies for uncaptured information. There is a scarcity of literature on risk factors for snakebite. In this study, we evaluate the individual-level risk factors of snakebite in Sri Lanka and highlight the impact of spatial confounding on determining the individual-level risk effects. METHODS: Data was obtained from the National Snakebite Survey of Sri Lanka. This was an Island-wide community-based survey. The survey sampled 165,665 individuals from all 25 districts of the country. We used generalized linear models to identify individual-level factors that contribute to an individual's risk of experiencing a snakebite event. We fitted separate models to assess risk factors with and without considering spatial variation in snakebite incidence in the country. RESULTS: Both spatially adjusted and non-adjusted models revealed that middle-aged people, males, field workers and individuals with low level of education have high risk of snakebites. The model without spatial adjustment showed an interaction between ethnicity and income levels. When the model included a spatial adjustment for the overall snakebite incidence, this interaction disappeared and income level appeared as an independent risk factor. Both models showed similar effect sizes for gender and age. HEmployment and education showed lower effect sizes in the spatially adjusted model. CONCLUSIONS: Both individual-level characteristics and local snakebite incidence are important to determine snakebite risk at a given location. Individual level variables could act as proxies for underling residual spatial variation when environmental information is not considered. This can lead to misinterpretation of risk factors and biased estimate

Journal article

Shah H, Huxley P, Elmes J, Murray Ket al., 2019, Agricultural land-uses consistently exacerbate infectious disease risks in Southeast Asia, Nature Communications, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2041-1723

Agriculture has been implicated as a potential driver of human infectious diseases. However, the generality of disease-agriculture relationships has not been systematically assessed, hindering efforts to incorporate human health considerations into land-use and development policies. Here we perform a meta-analysis with 34 eligible studies and show that people who live or work in agricultural land in Southeast Asia are on average 1.74 (CI 1.47 – 2.07) times as likely to be infected with a pathogen than those unexposed. Effect sizes are greatest for exposure to oil palm, rubber, and non-poultry based livestock farming and for hookworm (OR 2.42, CI 1.56 – 3.75), malaria (OR 2.00, CI 1.46 – 2.73), Scrub typhus (OR 2.37, CI 1.41 – 3.96) and Spotted fever group diseases (OR 3.91, CI 2.61 – 5.85). In contrast, no change in infection risk is detected for faecal-oral route diseases. Although responses vary by land-use and disease types, results suggest that agricultural land uses exacerbate many infectious diseases in Southeast Asia.

Journal article

Meinert E, Alturkistani A, Murray KA, Sabatier P, Car Jet al., 2019, A case study examining the cost measurements in production and delivery of a massive open online course (MOOC) for teaching the relationship between human health and climate change, International Conference on e-Learning 2019, Publisher: IADIS Press, Pages: 1-1

A Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) is a form of online education that makes available learning to a large number of individuals at no charge. The impact of climate change on public health has been introduced in MOOCs in various forms, for example, examining the impact of natural disasters, the increase in temperature on work productivity, and the monitoring and evaluation of health adaptation to climate change and its implications for policy. However, despite this work completed to advance understanding in both online and postgraduate education, more effort is required to provide the tools and capabilities to analyse evidence and present findings that demonstrate its impact on specific outcomes, including health and wellbeing. Although these courses are made publicly available, understanding the costs associated with their production and delivery will provide evidence to develop sustainable models for deployment of this form of citizen engagement education.

Conference paper

Watts N, Amann M, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Belesova K, Berry H, Bouley T, Boykoff M, Byass P, Cai W, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chambers J, Daly M, Dasandi N, Davies M, Depoux A, Dominguez-Salas P, Drummond P, Ebi KL, Ekins P, Montoya LF, Fischer H, Georgeson L, Grace D, Graham H, Hamilton I, Hartinger S, Hess J, Kelman I, Kiesewetter G, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Lemke B, Liang L, Lott M, Lowe R, Sewe MO, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, Mikhaylov SJ, Milner J, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Murray K, Nilsson M, Neville T, Oreszczyn T, Owfi F, Pearman O, Pencheon D, Pye S, Rabbaniha M, Robinson E, Rocklov J, Saxer O, Schutte S, Semenza JC, Shumake-Guillemot J, Steinbach R, Tabatabaei M, Tomei J, Trinanes J, Wheeler N, Wilkinson P, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello Aet al., 2018, The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come, The Lancet, Vol: 392, Pages: 2479-2514, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Murray KA, Olivero J, Roche B, Tiedt S, Guegan Jet al., 2018, Pathogeography: leveraging the biogeography of human infectious diseases for global health management, Ecography, Vol: 41, Pages: 1411-1427, ISSN: 0906-7590

Biogeography is an implicit and fundamental component of almost every dimension of modern biology, from natural selection and speciation to invasive species and biodiversity management. However, biogeography has rarely been integrated into human or veterinary medicine nor routinely leveraged for global health management. Here we review the theory and application of biogeography to the research and management of human infectious diseases, an integration we refer to as ‘pathogeography’. Pathogeography represents a promising framework for understanding and decomposing the spatial distributions, diversity patterns and emergence risks of human infectious diseases into interpretable components of dynamic socio‐ecological systems. Analytical tools from biogeography are already helping to improve our understanding of individual infectious disease distributions and the processes that shape them in space and time. At higher levels of organization, biogeographical studies of diseases are rarer but increasing, improving our ability to describe and explain patterns that emerge at the level of disease communities (e.g., co‐occurrence, diversity patterns, biogeographic regionalisation). Even in a highly globalized world most human infectious diseases remain constrained in their geographic distributions by ecological barriers to the dispersal or establishment of their causal pathogens, reservoir hosts and/or vectors. These same processes underpin the spatial arrangement of other taxa, such as mammalian biodiversity, providing a strong empirical ‘prior’ with which to assess the potential distributions of infectious diseases when data on their occurrence is unavailable or limited. In the absence of quality data, generalized biogeographic patterns could provide the earliest (and in some cases the only) insights into the potential distributions of many poorly known or emerging, or as‐yet‐unknown, infectious disease risks. Encouraging more community ecologists an

Journal article

Lachish S, Murray KA, 2018, The certainty of uncertainty: potential sources of bias and imprecision in disease ecology studies, Frontiers in Veterinary Science, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2297-1769

Wildlife diseases have important implications for wildlife and human health, the preservation of biodiversity and the resilience ofecosystems. However, understanding disease dynamics and the impacts of pathogens in wild populations is challenging becausethese complex systems can rarely, if ever, be observed without error. Uncertainty in disease ecology studies is commonly definedin terms of either heterogeneity in detectability (due to variation in the probability of encountering, capturing, or detectingindividuals in their natural habitat) or uncertainty in disease state assignment (due to misclassification errors or incompleteinformation). In reality, however, uncertainty in disease ecology studies extends beyond these components of observation errorand can arise from multiple varied processes, each of which can lead to bias and a lack of precision in parameter estimates. Here,we present an inventory of the sources of potential uncertainty in studies that attempt to quantify disease-relevant parametersfrom wild populations (e.g. prevalence, incidence, transmission rates, force of infection, risk of infection, persistence times, anddisease-induced impacts). We show that uncertainty can arise via processes pertaining to aspects of the disease system, the studydesign, the methods used to study the system, and the state of knowledge of the system, and that uncertainties generated via oneprocess can propagate through to others because of interactions between the numerous biological, methodological andenvironmental factors at play. We show that many of these sources of uncertainty may not be immediately apparent toresearchers (for example, unidentified crypticity among vectors, hosts or pathogens, a mismatch between the temporal scale ofsampling and disease dynamics, demographic or social misclassification), and thus have received comparatively little considerationin the literature to date. Finally, we discuss the type of bias or imprecision introduced by these varied s

Journal article

Osama T, Brindley D, Car J, Majeed FA, Murray K, Shah H, Toumazos M, van Velthoven H, Wells G, Meinert Eet al., 2018, Teaching the relationship between health and climate change: a systematic scoping review protocol, BMJ Open, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2044-6055

Introduction The observed and projected impacts of climate change on human health are significant. While climate change has gathered global momentum and is taught frequently, the extent to which the relationships between climate change and health are taught remain uncertain. Education provides an opportunity to create public engagement on these issues, but the extent to which historical implementation of climate health education could be leveraged is not well understood. To address this gap, we propose to conduct a scoping review of all forms of teaching that have been used to illustrate the health effects of climate change between 2005-2017, coinciding with a turning point in the public health and climate change agendas following the 2005 Group of 7/8 (G7/8) Summit. Methods and analysis Using Arksey/O’Malley’s and Levac's methodological framework, MEDLINE/PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Education Resource Information Centre (ERIC), Web of Science, Global Health, Health Management Information Consortium (HMIC), Georef, Ebsco and PROSPERO will be systematically searched. Predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied by two independent reviewers to determine study eligibility. Studies published in English and after 2005 only will be examined. Following selection of studies, data will be extracted and analysed. Ethics and dissemination No ethical approval is required as exclusively secondary data will be used.Our findings will be communicated to the European Institute of Innovation & Technology Health-Knowledge and Innovation Communities (EIT-KICs) to assist in the development of a FutureLearn Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on the health effects of climate change.

Journal article

Fisher M, Murray K, 2018, Recent Asian origin of chytrid fungi causing global amphibian declines, Science, Vol: 360, Pages: 621-627, ISSN: 0036-8075

Globalized infectious diseases are causing species declines worldwide, but their source often remains elusive. We used whole-genome sequencing to solve the spatiotemporal origins of the most devastating panzootic to date, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a proximate driver of global amphibian declines. We traced the source of B. dendrobatidis to the Korean peninsula, where one lineage, BdASIA-1, exhibits the genetic hallmarks of an ancestral population that seeded the panzootic. We date the emergence of this pathogen to the early 20th century, coinciding with the global expansion of commercial trade in amphibians, and we show that intercontinental transmission is ongoing. Our findings point to East Asia as a geographic hotspot for B. dendrobatidis biodiversity and the original source of these lineages that now parasitize amphibians worldwide.

Journal article

More S, Angel Miranda M, Bicout D, Bøtner A, Butterworth A, Calistri P, Depner K, Edwards S, GarinBastuji B, Good M, Michel V, Raj M, Saxmose Nielsen S, Sihvonen L, Spoolder H, Stegeman JA, Thulke H, Velarde A, Willeberg P, Winckler C, Baláž V, Martel A, Murray K, Fabris C, MunozGajardo I, Gogin A, Verdonck F, Gortázar Schmidt Cet al., 2018, Risk of survival, establishment and spread of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) in the EU, EFSA Journal, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1831-4732

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) is an emerging fungal pathogen of salamanders. Despite limited surveillance, Bsal was detected in kept salamanders populations in Belgium, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, and in wild populations in some regions of Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. According to niche modelling, at least part of the distribution range of every salamander species in Europe overlaps with the climate conditions predicted to be suitable for Bsal. Passive surveillance is considered the most suitable approach for detection of Bsal emergence in wild populations. Demonstration of Bsal absence is considered feasible only in closed populations of kept susceptible species. In the wild, Bsal can spread by both active (e.g. salamanders, anurans) and passive (e.g. birds, water) carriers; it is most likely maintained/spread in infected areas by contacts of salamanders or by interactions with anurans, whereas human activities most likely cause Bsal entry into new areas and populations. In kept amphibians, Bsal contamination via live silent carriers (wild birds and anurans) is considered extremely unlikely. The risk‐mitigation measures that were considered the most feasible and effective: (i) for ensuring safer international or intra‐EU trade of live salamanders, are: ban or restrictions on salamander imports, hygiene procedures and good practice manuals; (ii) for protecting kept salamanders from Bsal, are: identification and treatment of positive collections; (iii) for on‐site protection of wild salamanders, are: preventing translocation of wild amphibians and release/return to the wild of kept/temporarily housed wild salamanders, and setting up contact points/emergency teams for passive surveillance. Combining several risk‐mitigation measures improve the overall effectiveness. It is recommended to: introduce a harmonised protocol for Bsal detection throughout the EU; improve data acquisition on salamander abundance and distribution

Journal article

Watson JEM, Evans T, Venter O, Williams B, Tulloch A, Stewart C, Thompson I, Ray JC, Murray K, Salazar A, McAlpine C, Potapov P, Walston J, Robinson JG, Painter M, Wilkie D, Filardi C, Laurance WF, Houghton RA, Maxwell S, Grantham H, Samper C, Wang S, Laestadius L, Runting RK, Silva-Chávez GA, Ervin J, Lindenmayer Det al., 2018, The exceptional value of intact forest ecosystems, Nature Ecology and Evolution, Vol: 2, Pages: 599-610, ISSN: 2397-334X

As the terrestrial human footprint continues to expand, the amount of native forest that is free from significant damaging human activities is in precipitous decline. There is emerging evidence that the remaining intact forest supports an exceptional confluence of globally significant environmental values relative to degraded forests, including imperilled biodiversity, carbon sequestration and storage, water provision, indigenous culture and the maintenance of human health. Here we argue that maintaining and, where possible, restoring the integrity of dwindling intact forests is an urgent priority for current global efforts to halt the ongoing biodiversity crisis, slow rapid climate change and achieve sustainability goals. Retaining the integrity of intact forest ecosystems should be a central component of proactive global and national environmental strategies, alongside current efforts aimed at halting deforestation and promoting reforestation.

Journal article

Thurston GD, De Matteis S, Murray K, Scheelbeek P, Scovronick N, Budolfson M, Spears D, Vineis Pet al., 2018, Maximizing the public health benefits from climate action, Environmental Science and Technology, Vol: 52, Pages: 3852-3853, ISSN: 0013-936X

Journal article

Watts N, Amann M, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Belesova K, Bouley T, Boykoff M, Byass P, Cai W, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chambers J, Cox PM, Daly M, Dasandi N, Davies M, Depledge M, Depoux A, Dominguez-Salas P, Drummond P, Ekins P, Flahault A, Frumkin H, Georgeson L, Ghanei M, Grace D, Graham H, Grojsman R, Haines A, Hamilton I, Hartinger S, Johnson A, Kelman I, Kiesewetter G, Kniveton D, Liang L, Lott M, Lowe R, Mace G, Sewe MO, Maslin M, Mikhaylov S, Milner J, Latifi AM, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Murray K, Neville T, Nilsson M, Oreszczyn T, Owfi F, Pencheon D, Pye S, Rabbaniha M, Robinson E, Rocklov J, Schutte S, Shumake-Guillemot J, Steinbach R, Tabatabaei M, Wheeler N, Wilkinson P, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello Aet al., 2017, The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health, Lancet, Vol: 391, Pages: 581-630, ISSN: 0140-6736

The Lancet Countdown: Tracking Progress on Health and Climate Change is an international, multi-disciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be “the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century”.The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health effects of climate change; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of mitigation; climate economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex relationships between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders.The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines these potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies, and data sets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process – from November 2016 to early 2017 – to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. It will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals, and the World Health Organization’s Climate and Health Country Profiles. Additionally, the indicators will evolve throughout their lifetime through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course

Journal article

Allen T, Murray KA, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Morse S, Rondinini C, Di Marco M, Breit N, Olival K, Daszak Pet al., 2017, Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases, Nature Communications, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2041-1723

Zoonoses originating from wildlife represent a significant threat to global health, security and economic growth, and combatting their emergence is a public health priority. However, our understanding of the mechanisms underlying their emergence remains rudimentary. Here we update a global database of emerging infectious disease (EID) events, create a novel measure of reporting effort, and fit boosted regression tree models to analyze the demographic, environmental and biological correlates of their occurrence. After accounting for reporting effort, we show that zoonotic EID risk is elevated in forested tropical regions experiencing land-use changes and where wildlife biodiversity (mammal species richness) is high. We present a new global hotspot map of spatial variation in our zoonotic EID risk index, and partial dependence plots illustrating relationships between events and predictors. Our results may help to improve surveillance and long-term EID monitoring programs, and design field experiments to test underlying mechanisms of zoonotic disease emergence.

Journal article

Knight GM, Costelloe C, Murray KA, Robotham JV, Atun R, Holmes AHet al., 2017, Addressing the unknowns of antimicrobial resistance: quantifying and mapping the drivers of burden, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 66, Pages: 612-616, ISSN: 1058-4838

The global threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has arisen through a network of complex interacting factors. Many different sources and transmission pathways contribute to the ever-growing burden of AMR in our clinical settings. The lack of data on these mechanisms and the relative importance of different factors causing the emergence and spread of AMR hampers our global efforts to effectively manage the risks. Importantly, we have little quantitative knowledge on the relative contributions of these sources and are likely to be targeting our interventions suboptimally as a result. Here we propose a systems mapping approach to address the urgent need for reliable and timely data in order to strengthen the response to AMR.

Journal article

Allen T, Murray K, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Morse S, Rondinini C, di Marco M, Olival K, Daszak Pet al., 2017, Global correlates of emerging zoonoses: Anthropogenic, environmental, and biodiversity risk factors (vol 53, pg 21, 2016), INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 58, Pages: 68-68, ISSN: 1201-9712

Journal article

Cable J, Barber I, Boag B, Ellison AR, Morgan ER, Murray K, Pascoe EL, Sait SM, Wilson AJ, Booth Met al., 2017, Global change, parasite transmission and disease control: lessons from ecology, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London: Biological Sciences, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0962-8436

Parasitic infections are ubiquitous in wildlife, livestock and human populations, and healthy ecosystems are often parasite rich. Yet, their negative impacts can be extreme. Understanding how both anticipated and cryptic changes in a system might affect parasite transmission at an individual, local and global level is critical for sustainable control in humans and livestock. Here we highlight and synthesize evidence regarding potential effects of ‘system changes’ (both climatic and anthropogenic) on parasite transmission from wild host–parasite systems. Such information could inform more efficient and sustainable parasite control programmes in domestic animals or humans. Many examples from diverse terrestrial and aquatic natural systems show how abiotic and biotic factors affected by system changes can interact additively, multiplicatively or antagonistically to influence parasite transmission, including through altered habitat structure, biodiversity, host demographics and evolution. Despite this, few studies of managed systems explicitly consider these higher-order interactions, or the subsequent effects of parasite evolution, which can conceal or exaggerate measured impacts of control actions. We call for a more integrated approach to investigating transmission dynamics, which recognizes these complexities and makes use of new technologies for data capture and monitoring, and to support robust predictions of altered parasite dynamics in a rapidly changing world.

Journal article

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