Imperial College London

ProfessorKrisMurray

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Honorary Senior Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

kris.murray

 
 
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Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

115 results found

Whitmee S, Green R, Belesova K, Hassan S, Cuevas S, Murage P, Picetti R, Clercq-Roques R, Murray K, Falconer J, Anton B, Reynolds T, Sharma Waddington H, Hughes RC, Spadaro J, Aguilar Jaber A, Saheb Y, Campbell-Lendrum D, Cortés-Puch M, Ebi K, Huxley R, Mazzucato M, Oni T, de Paula N, Peng G, Revi A, Rockström J, Srivastava L, Whitmarsh L, Zougmoré R, Phumaphi J, Clark H, Haines Aet al., 2024, Pathways to a healthy net-zero future: report of the Lancet Pathfinder Commission., Lancet, Vol: 403, Pages: 67-110

Journal article

Wariri O, Utazi CE, Okomo U, Sowe A, Sogur M, Fofanna S, Ezeani E, Saidy L, Sarwar G, Dondeh BL, Murray KA, Grundy C, Kampmann Bet al., 2023, Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the coverage and timeliness of routine childhood vaccinations in the Gambia, 2015-2021, BMJ Global Health, Vol: 8

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread morbidity and mortality and resulted in the biggest setback in routine vaccinations in three decades. Data on the impact of the pandemic on immunisation in Africa are limited, in part, due to low-quality routine or administrative data. This study examined coverage and timeliness of routine childhood immunisation during the pandemic in The Gambia, a country with an immunisation system considered robust. Methods We obtained prospective birth cohort data of 57 286 children in over 300 communities in two health and demographic surveillance system sites, including data from the pre-pandemic period (January 2015- February 2020) and the three waves of the pandemic period (March 2020-December 2021). We determined monthly coverage and timeliness (early and delayed) of the birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine (HepB0) and the first dose of pentavalent vaccine (Penta1) during the different waves of the pandemic relative to the pre-pandemic period. We implemented a binomial interrupted time-series regression model. Result We observed no significant change in the coverage of HepB0 and Penta1 vaccinations from the pre-pandemic period up until the periods before the peaks of the first and second waves of the pandemic in 2020. However, there was an increase in HepB0 coverage before as well as after the peak of the third wave in 2021 compared with the pre-pandemic period (pre-third wave peak OR = 1.83, 95% CI 1.06 to 3.14; post-third wave period OR=2.20, 95% CI 1.23 to 3.92). There was some evidence that vaccination timeliness changed during specific periods of the pandemic. Early Penta1 vaccination decreased by 70% (OR=0.30, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.78) in the period before the second wave, and delayed HepB0 vaccination decreased by 47% (OR=0.53, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.97) after the peak of the third wave in 2021. Conclusion Despite the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, The Gambia’s routine vaccination programme has defied the setbacks wi

Journal article

Romanello M, Napoli CD, Green C, Kennard H, Lampard P, Scamman D, Walawender M, Ali Z, Ameli N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Beggs PJ, Belesova K, Berrang Ford L, Bowen K, Cai W, Callaghan M, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chambers J, Cross TJ, van Daalen KR, Dalin C, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Dominguez-Salas P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Freyberg C, Gasparyan O, Gordon-Strachan G, Graham H, Gunther SH, Hamilton I, Hang Y, Hänninen R, Hartinger S, He K, Heidecke J, Hess JJ, Hsu S-C, Jamart L, Jankin S, Jay O, Kelman I, Kiesewetter G, Kinney P, Kniveton D, Kouznetsov R, Larosa F, Lee JKW, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Lotto Batista M, Lowe R, Odhiambo Sewe M, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McMichael C, Mi Z, Milner J, Minor K, Minx JC, Mohajeri N, Momen NC, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Obradovich N, O'Hare MB, Oliveira C, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Pega F, Pershing A, Rabbaniha M, Rickman J, Robinson EJZ, Rocklöv J, Salas RN, Semenza JC, Sherman JD, Shumake-Guillemot J, Silbert G, Sofiev M, Springmann M, Stowell JD, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Thompson R, Tonne C, Treskova M, Trinanes JA, Wagner F, Warnecke L, Whitcombe H, Winning M, Wyns A, Yglesias-González M, Zhang S, Zhang Y, Zhu Q, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello Aet al., 2023, The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms., Lancet, Vol: 402, Pages: 2346-2394

Journal article

Moirano G, Botta A, Yang M, Mangeruga M, Murray K, Vineis Pet al., 2023, Land-cover, land-use and human hantavirus infection risk: a systematic review., Pathog Glob Health, Pages: 1-15

Previous studies suggest that the risk of human infection by hantavirus, a family of rodent-borne viruses, might be affected by different environmental determinants such as land cover, land use and land use change. This study examined the association between land-cover, land-use, land use change, and human hantavirus infection risk. PubMed and Scopus databases were interrogated using terms relative to land use (change) and human hantavirus disease. Screening and selection of the articles were completed by three independent reviewers. Classes of land use assessed by the different studies were categorized into three macro-categories of exposure ('Agriculture', 'Forest Cover', 'Urban Areas') to qualitatively synthesize the direction of the association between exposure variables and hantavirus infection risk in humans. A total of 25 articles were included, with 14 studies (56%) conducted in China, 4 studies (16%) conducted in South America and 7 studies (28%) conducted in Europe. Most of the studies (88%) evaluated land cover or land use, while 3 studies (12%) evaluated land use change, all in relation to hantavirus infection risk. We observed that land cover and land-use categories could affect hantavirus infection incidence. Overall, agricultural land use was positively associated with increased human hantavirus infection risk, particularly in China and Brazil. In Europe, a positive association between forest cover and hantavirus infection incidence was observed. Studies that assessed the relationship between built-up areas and hantavirus infection risk were more variable, with studies reporting positive, negative or no associations.

Journal article

Hanley-Cook GT, Daly AJ, Remans R, Jones AD, Murray KA, Huybrechts I, De Baets B, Lachat Cet al., 2023, Food biodiversity: Quantifying the unquantifiable in human diets, CRITICAL REVIEWS IN FOOD SCIENCE AND NUTRITION, Vol: 63, Pages: 7837-7851, ISSN: 1040-8398

Journal article

Wariri O, Utazi CE, Okomo U, Metcalf CJE, Sogur M, Fofana S, Murray KA, Grundy C, Kampmann Bet al., 2023, Mapping the timeliness of routine childhood vaccination in The Gambia: A spatial modelling study., Vaccine, Vol: 41, Pages: 5696-5705

INTRODUCTION: Timeliness of routine vaccination shapes childhood infection risk and thus is an important public health metric. Estimates of indicators of the timeliness of vaccination are usually produced at the national or regional level, which may conceal epidemiologically relevant local heterogeneities and makeitdifficultto identify pockets of vulnerabilities that could benefit from targeted interventions. Here, we demonstrate the utility of geospatial modelling techniques in generating high-resolution maps of the prevalence of delayed childhood vaccination in The Gambia. To guide local immunisation policy and prioritize key interventions, we also identified the districts with a combination of high estimated prevalence and a significant population of affected infants. METHODS: We used the birth dose of the hepatitis-B vaccine (HepB0), third-dose of the pentavalent vaccine (PENTA3), and the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) as examples to map delayed vaccination nationally at a resolution of 1 × 1-km2 pixel. We utilized cluster-level childhood vaccination data from The Gambia 2019-20 Demographic and Health Survey. We adopted a fully Bayesian geostatistical model incorporating publicly available geospatial covariates to aid predictive accuracy. The model was implemented using the integrated nested Laplace approximation-stochastic partial differential equation (INLA-SPDE) approach. RESULTS: We found significant subnational heterogeneity in delayed HepB0, PENTA3 and MCV1 vaccinations. Specificdistricts in the central and eastern regions of The Gambia consistentlyexhibited the highest prevalence of delayed vaccination, while the coastal districts showed alower prevalence forallthree vaccines. We also found that districts in the eastern, central, as well as in coastal parts of The Gambia had a combination of high estimated prevalence of delayed HepB0, PENTA3 and MCV1 and a significant population of affected infants. CONCLUSIONS: Our approa

Journal article

Murray K, Saager E, Iwamura T, Jucker T, Murray Ket al., 2023, Deforestation for oil palm increases microclimate suitability for the development of the disease vector Aedes albopictus, Scientific Reports, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 2045-2322

A major trade-off of land-use change is the potential for increased risk of infectious diseases, a.o. through impacting disease vector life-cycles. Evaluating the public health implications of land-use conversions requires spatially detailed modelling linking land-use to vector ecology. Here, we estimate the impact of deforestation for oil palm cultivation on the number of life-cycle completions of Aedes albopictus via its impact on local microclimates. We apply a recently developed mechanistic phenology model to a fine-scaled (50-m resolution) microclimate dataset that includes daily temperature, rainfall and evaporation. Results of this combined model indicate that the conversion from lowland rainforest to plantations increases suitability for A. albopictus development by 10.8%, moderated to 4.7% with oil palm growth to maturity. Deforestation followed by typical plantation planting-maturation-clearance-replanting cycles is predicted to create pulses of high development suitability. Our results highlight the need to explore sustainable land-use scenarios that resolve conflicts between agricultural and human health objectives.

Journal article

Charnley G, Yennan S, Ochu C, Kelman I, Gaythorpe K, Murray Ket al., 2023, Cholera past and future in Nigeria: are the Global Task Force on Cholera Control’s 2030 targets achievable?, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol: 17, Pages: 1-18, ISSN: 1935-2727

BackgroundUnderstanding and continually assessing the achievability of global health targets is key to reducing disease burden and mortality. The Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) Roadmap aims to reduce cholera deaths by 90% and eliminate the disease in twenty countries by 2030. The Roadmap has three axes focusing on reporting, response and coordination. Here, we assess the achievability of the GTFCC targets in Nigeria and identify where the three axes could be strengthened to reach and exceed these goals.Methodology/Principal findingsUsing cholera surveillance data from Nigeria, cholera incidence was calculated and used to model time-varying reproduction number (R). A best fit random forest model was identified using R as the outcome variable and several environmental and social covariates were considered in the model, using random forest variable importance and correlation clustering. Future scenarios were created (based on varying degrees of socioeconomic development and emission reductions) and used to project future cholera transmission, nationally and sub-nationally to 2070. The projections suggest that significant reductions in cholera cases could be achieved by 2030, particularly in the more developed southern states, but increases in cases remain a possibility. Meeting the 2030 target, nationally, currently looks unlikely and we propose a new 2050 target focusing on reducing regional inequities, while still advocating for cholera elimination being achieved as soon as possible.Conclusion/SignificanceThe 2030 targets could potentially be reached by 2030 in some parts of Nigeria, but more effort is needed to reach these targets at a national level, particularly through access and incentives to cholera testing, sanitation expansion, poverty alleviation and urban planning. The results highlight the importance of and how modelling studies can be used to inform cholera policy and the potential for this to be applied in other contexts.

Journal article

Romanello M, Cai W, Costello A, Hartinger S, Murray K, Gordon Stratchan Get al., 2023, No climate change justice in lieu of global authorship equity - Authors' reply., Lancet, Vol: 401, Pages: 1074-1075

Journal article

Rawson T, Doohan P, Hauck K, Murray K, Ferguson Net al., 2023, Climate change and communicable diseases in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, Vol: 42, Pages: 1-6, ISSN: 1755-4365

A review of the extant literature reveals the extent to which the spread of communicable diseases will be significantly impacted by climate change. Specific research into how this will likely be observed in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is, however, greatly lacking. This report summarises the unique public health challenges faced by the GCC countries in the coming century, and outlines the need for greater investment in public health research and disease surveillance to better forecast the imminent epidemiological landscape. Significant data gaps currently exist regarding vector occurrence, spatial climate measures, and communicable disease case counts in the GCC — presenting an immediate research priority for the region. We outline policy work necessary to strengthen public health interventions, and to facilitate evidence-driven mitigation strategies. Such research will require a transdisciplinary approach, utilising existing cross-border public health initiatives, to ensure that such investigations are well-targeted and effectively communicated.

Journal article

Di Napoli C, Romanello M, Minor K, Chambers J, Dasgupta S, Escobar LE, Hang Y, Haenninen R, Liu Y, Batista ML, Lowe R, Murray KA, Owfi F, Rabbaniha M, Shi L, Sofiev M, Tabatabaei M, Robinson EJZet al., 2023, The role of global reanalyses in climate services for health: Insights from the <i>Lancet</i> Countdown, METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Vol: 30, ISSN: 1350-4827

Journal article

Goldstein E, Erinjery JJ, Martin G, Kasturiratne A, Ediriweera DS, Somaweera R, de Silva HJ, Diggle P, Lallod DG, Murray KA, Lwamura Tet al., 2023, Climate change maladaptation for health: Agricultural practice against shifting seasonal rainfall affects snakebite risk for farmers in the tropics, ISCIENCE, Vol: 26

Journal article

Bonell A, Badjie J, Faal LB, Jammeh S, Ali Z, Hydara M, Davies A, Faal M, Ahmed AN, Hand W, Prentice AM, Murray K, Scheelbeek Pet al., 2023, Equity in planetary health education initiatives, LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH, Vol: 7, Pages: E6-E7

Journal article

Wariri O, Utazi CE, Okomo U, Sogur M, Murray KA, Grundy C, Fofanna S, Kampmann Bet al., 2023, Timeliness of routine childhood vaccination among 12-35 months old children in The Gambia: Analysis of national immunisation survey data, 2019-2020., PLoS One, Vol: 18

The Gambia's routine childhood vaccination programme is highly successful, however, many vaccinations are delayed, with potential implications for disease outbreaks. We adopted a multi-dimensional approach to determine the timeliness of vaccination (i.e., timely, early, delayed, and untimely interval vaccination). We utilised data for 3,248 children from The Gambia 2019-2020 Demographic and Health Survey. Nine tracer vaccines administered at birth and at two, three, four, and nine months of life were included. Timeliness was defined according to the recommended national vaccination windows and reported as both categorical and continuous variables. Routine coverage was high (above 90%), but also a high rate of untimely vaccination. First-dose pentavalent vaccine (PENTA1) and oral polio vaccine (OPV1) had the highest timely coverage that ranged from 71.8% (95% CI = 68.7-74.8%) to 74.4% (95% CI = 71.7-77.1%). Delayed vaccination was the commonest dimension of untimely vaccination and ranged from 17.5% (95% CI = 14.5-20.4%) to 91.1% (95% CI = 88.9-93.4%), with median delays ranging from 11 days (IQR = 5, 19.5 days) to 28 days (IQR = 11, 57 days) across all vaccines. The birth-dose of Hepatitis B vaccine had the highest delay and this was more common in the 24-35 months age group (91.1% [95% CI = 88.9-93.4%], median delays = 17 days [IQR = 10, 28 days]) compared to the 12-23 months age-group (84.9% [95% CI = 81.9-87.9%], median delays = 16 days [IQR = 9, 26 days]). Early vaccination was the least common and ranged from 4.9% (95% CI = 3.2-6.7%) to 10.7% (95% CI = 8.3-13.1%) for all vaccines. The Gambia's childhood immunization system requires urgent implementation of effective strategies to reduce untimely vaccination in order to optimize its quality, even though it already has impressive coverage rates.

Journal article

Charnley G, Yennan S, Ochu C, Ilan K, Gaythorpe K, Murray Ket al., 2022, The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria, PLOS Global Public Health, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2767-3375

Nigeria currently reports the second highest number of cholera cases in Africa, with numerous socioeconomic and environmental risk factors. Less investigated are the role of extreme events, despite recent work showing their potential importance. To address this gap, we used a machine learning approach to understand the risks and thresholds for cholera outbreaks and extreme events, taking into consideration pre-existing vulnerabilities. We estimated time varying reproductive number (R) from cholera incidence in Nigeria and used a machine learning approach to evaluate its association with extreme events (conflict, flood, drought) and pre-existing vulnerabilities (poverty, sanitation, healthcare). We then created a traffic-light system for cholera outbreak risk, using three hypothetical traffic-light scenarios (Red, Amber and Green) and used this to predict R. The system highlighted potential extreme events and socioeconomic thresholds for outbreaks to occur. We found that reducing poverty and increasing access to sanitation lessened vulnerability to increased cholera risk caused by extreme events (monthly conflicts and the Palmers Drought Severity Index). The main limitation is the underreporting of cholera globally and the potential number of cholera cases missed in the data used here. Increasing access to sanitation and decreasing poverty reduced the impact of extreme events in terms of cholera outbreak risk. The results here therefore add further evidence of the need for sustainable development for disaster prevention and mitigation and to improve health and quality of life.

Journal article

Loh EH, Nava A, Murray KA, Olival KJ, Guimaraes M, Shimabukuro J, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Fonseca FR, de Oliveira DBL, Campos ACDA, Durigon EL, Ferreira F, Struebig MJ, Daszak Pet al., 2022, Prevalence of bat viruses associated with land-use change in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil, FRONTIERS IN CELLULAR AND INFECTION MICROBIOLOGY, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2235-2988

Journal article

Charnley G, Jean K, Kelman I, Gaythorpe K, Murray Ket al., 2022, Association between conflict and Cholera in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol: 28, Pages: 2472-2481, ISSN: 1080-6040

Cholera outbreaks contribute substantially to illness and death in low- and middle-income countries. Cholera outbreaks are associated with several social and environmental risk factors, and extreme conditions can act as catalysts. A social extreme known to be associated with infectious disease outbreaks is conflict, causing disruption to services, loss of income, and displacement. To determine the extent of this association, we used the self-controlled case-series method and found that conflict increased the risk for cholera in Nigeria by 3.6 times and in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by 2.6 times. We also found that 19.7% of cholera outbreaks in Nigeria and 12.3% of outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo were attributable to conflict. Our results highlight the value of providing rapid and sufficient assistance during conflict-associated cholera outbreaks and working toward conflict resolution and addressing preexisting vulnerabilities, such as poverty and access to healthcare.

Journal article

Bonell A, Sonko B, Badjie J, Samateh T, Saidy T, Sosseh F, Sallah Y, Bajo K, Murray KA, Hirst J, Vicedo-Cabrera A, Prentice AM, Maxwell NS, Haines Aet al., 2022, Environmental heat stress on maternal physiology and fetal blood flow in pregnant subsistence farmers in The Gambia, west Africa: an observational cohort study, LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH, Vol: 6, Pages: E968-E976

Journal article

Romanello M, Di Napoli C, Drummond P, Green C, Kennard H, Lampard P, Scamman D, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Ford LB, Belesova K, Bowen K, Cai W, Callaghan M, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chambers J, van Daalen KR, Dalin C, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Dominguez-Salas P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Escobar LE, Georgeson L, Graham H, Gunther SH, Hamilton I, Hang Y, Hanninen R, Hartinger S, He K, Hess JJ, Hsu S-C, Jankin S, Jamart L, Jay O, Kelman I, Kiesewetter G, Kinney P, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Lee JKW, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Batista ML, Lowe R, MacGuire F, Sewe MO, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McGushin A, McMichael C, Mi Z, Milner J, Minor K, Minx JC, Mohajeri N, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Obradovich N, O'Hare MB, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Rabbaniha M, Robinson EJZ, Rocklov J, Salas RN, Semenza JC, Sherman JD, Shi L, Shumake-Guillemot J, Silbert G, Sofiev M, Springmann M, Stowell J, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Trinanes J, Wagner F, Wilkinson P, Winning M, Yglesias-Gonzalez M, Zhang S, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello Aet al., 2022, The 2022 report of the <i>Lancet</i> Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels, LANCET, Vol: 400, Pages: 1619-1654, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Wells HL, Loh E, Nava A, Solorio MR, Lee MH, Lee J, Sukor JRA, Navarrete-Macias I, Liang E, Firth C, Epstein JH, Rostal MK, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Murray K, Daszak P, Goldstein T, Mazet JAK, Lee B, Hughes T, Durigon E, Anthony SJet al., 2022, Classification of new morbillivirus and jeilongvirus sequences from bats sampled in Brazil and Malaysia, ARCHIVES OF VIROLOGY, Vol: 167, Pages: 1977-1987, ISSN: 0304-8608

Journal article

Lopez-Carr D, Sokolow S, De Leo G, Murray K, Barry Met al., 2022, Editorial: Planetary health impacts of pandemic coronaviruses, FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 10

Journal article

Ellepola G, Herath J, Dan S, Pie MR, Murray KA, Pethiyagoda R, Hanken J, Meegaskumbura Met al., 2022, Climatic niche evolution of infectious diseases driving amphibian declines

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Climate change and infectious diseases continue to drive global amphibian population declines, contributing to one of the greatest vertebrate extinctions of the Anthropocene. Currently around 16% amphibian species across the world are affected by four pathogens –<jats:italic>Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis</jats:italic>(<jats:italic>Bd</jats:italic>),<jats:italic>B. salamandrivorans</jats:italic>(<jats:italic>Bsal</jats:italic>),<jats:italic>Ranavirus</jats:italic>and<jats:italic>Perkinsea</jats:italic>. A climatic context behind the dispersal of some of these diseases is hypothesized. However, the interplay between niche conservatism (NC) and climatic niche evolution (CNE), essential to understand disease evolution and dispersal, has so far received little attention. Here we show that the impacts of amphibian pathogens are intensifying as their climatic niches evolve. NC-based analyses suggest that niches of these diseases overlap, especially in Europe and East/southeast Asia (ESEA), and that all four pathogens will continue to devastate amphibians through seasonality shifts and range expansions, penetrating deeper into temperate regions and global amphibian diversity hotspots.<jats:italic>Bd</jats:italic>will spread over diversity-rich mountain ranges and ranaviruses will overwhelm lowlands. CNE-based analyses suggest that the earliest lineages of these diseases originated in colder regions and that some lineages subsequently evolved towards warmer climatic niches. We caution that quiescent, warm-adapted strains are likely to become widespread and novel ranaviruses adapted to local climatic conditions and new hosts are likely to emerge. These results portend the dangers of introducing pathogens into new regions given their ability to adapt to changing climate scenarios. In a climatic background conducive to most of the

Journal article

Wegner G, Murray KA, Springmann M, Muller A, Sokolow SH, Saylors K, Morens DMet al., 2022, Averting wildlife-borne infectious disease epidemics requires a focus on socio-ecological drivers and a redesign of the global food system, ECLINICALMEDICINE, Vol: 47

Journal article

Martin G, Erinjery JJ, Ediriweera D, de Silva HJ, Lalloo DG, Iwamura T, Murray KAet al., 2022, A mechanistic model of snakebite as a zoonosis: Envenoming incidence is driven by snake ecology, socioeconomics and its impacts on snakes, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1935-2735

Journal article

Bonell A, Badjie J, Jammeh S, Ali Z, Hydara M, Davies A, Faal M, Ahmed AN, Hand W, Prentice AM, Murray KA, Scheelbeek Pet al., 2022, Grassroots and Youth-Led Climate Solutions From The Gambia, FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 10

Journal article

Di Napoli C, McGushin A, Romanello M, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Cai W, Chambers J, Dasgupta S, Escobar LE, Kelman I, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lowe R, Martinez-Urtaza J, McMichael C, Moradi-Lakeh M, Murray KA, Rabbaniha M, Semenza JC, Shi L, Tabatabaei M, Trinanes JA, Vu BN, Brimicombe C, Robinson EJet al., 2022, Tracking the impacts of climate change on human health via indicators: lessons from the <i>Lancet</i> Countdown, BMC PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 22

Journal article

Charnley GEC, Gaythorpe KAM, Kelman I, Murray KAet al., 2022, Accessing sub-national cholera epidemiological data for Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo during the seventh pandemic, BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol: 22, ISSN: 1471-2334

Background:Vibrio cholerae is a water-borne pathogen with a global burden estimate at 1.4 to 4.0 million annual cases. Over 94% of these cases are reported in Africa and more research is needed to understand cholera dynamics in the region. Cholera data are lacking, mainly due to reporting issues, creating barriers for widespread research on cholera epidemiology and management in Africa.Main body:Here, we present datasets that were created to help address this gap, collating freely available sub-national cholera data for Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The data were collated from a variety of English and French publicly available sources, including the World Health Organization, PubMed, UNICEF, EM-DAT, the Nigerian CDC and peer-reviewed literature. These data include information on cases, deaths, age, gender, oral cholera vaccination, risk factors and interventions.Conclusion:These datasets can facilitate qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods research in these two high burden countries to assist in public health planning. The data can be used in collaboration with organisations in the two countries, which have also collected data or undertaking research. By making the data and methods available, we aim to encourage their use and further data collection and compilation to help improve the data gaps for cholera in Africa.

Journal article

Shah H, Murray K, Hamlet A, Carrasco LRet al., 2022, Exploring agricultural land-use and childhood malaria associations in sub-Saharan Africa, Scientific Reports, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2045-2322

Agriculture in Africa is rapidly expanding but with this comes potential disbenefits for the environment and human health. Here, we retrospectively assess whether childhood malaria in sub-Saharan Africa varies across differing agricultural land uses after controlling for socio-economic and environmental confounders. Using a multi-model inference hierarchical modelling framework, we found that rainfed cropland was associated with increased malaria in rural (OR 1.10, CI 1.03 – 1.18) but not urban areas, while irrigated or post flooding cropland was associated with malaria in urban (OR 1.09, CI 1.00 – 1.18) but not rural areas. In contrast, although malaria was associated with complete forest cover (OR 1.35, CI 1.24 – 1.47), the presence of natural vegetation in agricultural lands potentially reduces the odds of malaria depending on rural-urban context. In contrast, no associations with malaria were observed for natural vegetation interspersed with cropland (veg-dominant mosaic). Agricultural expansion through rainfed or irrigated cropland may increase childhood malaria in rural or urban contexts in sub-Saharan Africa but retaining some natural vegetation within croplands could help mitigate this risk and provide environmental co-benefits.

Journal article

Martin G, Erinjery J, Gumbs R, Somaweera R, Ediriweera D, Diggle PJ, Kasturiratne A, Silva HJ, Lalloo DG, Iwamura T, Murray KAet al., 2022, Integrating snake distribution, abundance and expert-derived behavioural traits predicts snakebite risk, JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Vol: 59, Pages: 611-623, ISSN: 0021-8901

Journal article

Huxley PJ, Murray KA, Pawar S, Cator LJet al., 2022, Competition and resource depletion shape the thermal response of population fitness in <i>Aedes aegypti</i>, COMMUNICATIONS BIOLOGY, Vol: 5

Journal article

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